Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia Pacific: trends and ...

Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025

Pay TV and OTT video in

emerging Asia–Pacific:

trends and forecasts 2020–

2025

Martin Scott, Alex Boisot and Qingyi Liang


WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

This report provides:

▪ forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services,

the number of premium OTT video users, their retail revenue

(spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)

▪ forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and

digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite (DTH) and operator OTT;1

operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT

video service: linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental),

TVoD (ownership) and SVoD

▪ forecasts for eight individual countries and emerging Asia–

Pacific (EMAP) as a whole, plus in-depth coverage for four

countries.

2

About this report

1 The full definition of the term ‘Operator OTT’ is articulated in the appendix at the end of this report. In short, this term refers to

OTT video services offered by telecoms operators and also by pay-TV providers that have previously provided traditional pay-TV

services.

▪ Product and strategy managers within pay-TV providers and operators

who require market sizing for business planning purposes, as well as an

overview of the key trends that are affecting the market.

▪ Business development managers within vendors of video solutions who

need to assess the size of the opportunity for their products and

services.

▪ Financial analysts who need to understand the dynamics and the size of

the pay-TV market and its interaction with OTT video services.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Region modelled:

▪ Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

Countries modelled individually

(additional in-depth coverage is

provided for those in bold):

▪ China

▪ India

▪ Indonesia

▪ Malaysia

▪ Myanmar

▪ Thailand

▪ Philippines

▪ Vietnam

KEY METRICS

▪ Pay-TV households and

connections

▪ OTT video users

▪ Retail revenue (spend)

▪ ASPU

Pay TV is split by the following

access technologies:

▪ cable (analogue and digital,

CATV)

▪ IPTV

▪ pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)

▪ satellite (DTH)

▪ operator OTT1

▪ third-party (non-operator) OTT

OTT video is split as follows:

▪ linear – channels (paid-for and

free)

▪ linear – events

▪ TVoD – (rental and ownership)

▪ SVoD (paid-for and free)


The (relatively light) impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TV

and video viewing behaviour will continue into 2021.

The COVID-19 pandemic affected consumer behaviour differently

in each country in the region. However, the overall impact on the

TV and video market was much weaker than that in other regions.

Most governments introduced a community quarantine or

movement control order in early 2020, which led to an increase in

the consumption of TV and video content.

Disruption to sports coverage has resulted in a fall in linear

content revenue (both traditional and OTT).

Sports content is a key driver of consumers’ spending on linear

content. The disruption to international league games was

significant in 2Q 2020 and local sports leagues were still

disrupted at the time of writing. This disruption led to a slight

decline in traditional pay-TV and OTT linear channel revenue in

2020, but the impact was particularly felt among ‘linear event’

services that offer pay-per-view sports events, many of which were

rescheduled or cancelled.

VoD viewership, and therefore spend, increased in 2020.

People spent more time at home in 2020 and, accordingly, the

consumption of both TVoD rentals and SVoD increased.1 The use

of free trials surged, and Netflix stopped offering them in some

countries to prevent abuse.

Figure 4: Pay-TV and OTT retail revenue by service, showing the

effect of COVID-19 (logarithmic scale), EMAP, 2018–20212

9

COVID-19: a slight increase in on-demand viewership benefitted OTT video players;

disruptions to sports broadcasts affected traditional pay-TV and linear OTT revenue

1 For further information, see Analysys Mason’s Connected Consumer Survey 2020: TV and video services in emerging Asia–

Pacific.2 The arrow denotes the change in the value due to COVID-19.

https://www.analysysmason.com/research/content/reports/ccs-tv-emap-rdvs0/


Figure 21: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU,

Indonesia, 2018–2025

Figure 22: Number of users by service type, Indonesia, 2018–

2025

Indonesia: third-party OTT providers will be able to operate more independently,

thereby driving intensifying competition in the segment

21

Third-party OTT service providers have historically had to rely on

deals with telecoms operators to gain access to the Indonesian

market. Services from international heavyweights such as Netflix

and HBO GO are not available on a standalone basis. These

dynamics appear to have shifted in 2020, and we consequently

anticipate much stronger competition during our forecast period.

HBO GO became available as a standalone service in February

2020 and Netflix was unblocked by Telkomsel in July 2020.

Disney+ Hotstar entered the market in September 2020; it

launched at a lower price point than Netflix and rapidly gained

millions of (paying) users, thereby depressing ASPU. This will put

pressure on smaller players, some of whom will be forced out of

the market.

OTT VIDEO MARKET KPIs 2025

€

PER MONTH

8.87.5

MILLION

$


ContentsExecutive summary

Regional trends

Country-level trends

Forecast methodology and assumptions

About the authors and Analysys Mason


Alex Boisot (Analyst) is a member of the Regional Markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market

Matrix, European Country Reports, European Core Forecasts, Middle East and Africa and Video, Gaming and Entertainment research

programmes. Alex holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of East Anglia. He conducted research on the impact of

telecoms technologies on modern societies during his studies, writing his dissertation on e-government and e-democracy. He has also worked

on the development of a mobile game aiming to teach users the basic principles of physics.

About the authors

29

Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) heads Analysys Mason's research initiatives related to media and TV. He manages the Video, Gaming and

Entertainment research programme. Martin has held numerous positions within Analysys Mason during the last 15 years, including heading the

company's Consumer Services, Data and Regional Markets practices. He also launched Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer Survey and

Consumer smartphone usage series of research. His primary areas of specialisation include telecoms TV strategy, OTT video and media,

consumer behaviour, customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy. He also specialises in statistics, surveys and the analysis

of primary research. He has a Master's degree in Mathematics from Oxford University.

Qingyi Liang (Research Analyst) is a member of the Data Team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European

Country Reports and Asia–Pacific programmes. Qingyi has a MSc in Biomedical Sciences, and a PhD in Epigenetics and Cancer Biology from

University College London.


Consulting

We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms

industry:

▪ communications and digital service providers, vendors,

financial and strategic investors, private equity and

infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters

and service and content providers

Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges

facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.

We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges

and opportunities new technology brings.

Research

Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different

services accessed by consumers and enterprises.

We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and

technology delivering those services.

Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct

access to analysts.

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Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio


Research from Analysys Mason

31


Consulting from Analysys Mason

32


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Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any

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MARCH 2021

Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia Pacific: trends and ...

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