MNV/RL 1 Indicators of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans Bureau of Environmental Assessment
Jan 14, 2016
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Indicators of climate change on
ecosystems and biodiversity
Prof. Dr. Rik LeemansBureau of Environmental
Assessment
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Past and Future Rapid Environmental Change
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General conclusions by Huntley et al., 1997.
Response to rapid climate change is species-specific and involves spatial and evolutionary mechanisms. There are thresholds and magnitudes of change to which organisms respond with either or both mechanisms
Regional variation is profound. Sometimes the regional trend differ from the global trend. Biodiversity is reshaped according to regional environmental characteristics
Major species extinctions during the Quarternary occurred during periods of rapid climate change
High altitude areas, coastal areas, isolated islands (high levels of endemism) and continetal ‘cul-de-sac’ areas were and will be the most vulnerable
It seems certain that future CC will have substantial impact upon regional and global biodiversity.
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Stresses on Ecosystems
biodiversity
Vitality
Soil conservation
Waterconservation
Carbon cycle
productivity
Diversity of seral stagesand stand structure Trophic
network integrity
Physical and biotic stabilityEquilibrium
among supply/demandof essential resources
Continued carbonsequestration
Resilience
Sustainable
Reduction in sizeof components
Systemretrogression
Reduced carbonstorage
Changes in species diversity
Change in nutrientcycling
Change in productivity
Non-Sustainable
Exoticspecies
Managementpractices climate Air pollution
Extremeevents
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Causes of changes in biodiversity
bio
div
ers
ity
timepath
Habitat destruction
exotic species
overexploitation and degradation
pollution
fragmentationclimate change
protection
restoration
sustainable use ?
?
Linkages and Trade-offs are Real
Sectoral assessments are too narrow
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Combining climate change and other global change aspects: Impacts on
biodiversityBoreal forests
Savannas
Land useCO2
concentrationsNitrogen
deposition
Climate change Alien species
Temperate forests
Tropical forests
1
Arctic regions1
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NDVI in January
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NDVI in February
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NDVI in March
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NDVI in April
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NDVI in May
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NDVI in June
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NDVI in July
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NDVI in August
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NDVI in September
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NDVI in October
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NDVI in November
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NDVI in December
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Changes in length and start of growing season
Length
Start
Start of growing season after the summer drought
Increase in the length of the growing season
Increase in summer droughts
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Change in fire-proneness (i.e. the area of no current dry season but one in the
future)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
Change in global mean temperature
Perc
enta
ge o
f th
e re
gion Latin America
Af rica
I ndonesian Archipelago
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An example: Changing ecosystems at a global mean temperature
increase of 3oC
Ecosystems that change are coloured.
Improvement
Improvement: More trees and higher productivity
Change: needle-leafed forests becomes broad-
leafed forest
Change: Different species composition and landscapes
Degradation
Degradation: Fewer trees and lower productivityExtinction: Large habitat decline and irreversible change
Extinction
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Dieback is fast, regrowth is slow
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Impact on the yield of corn
Less
No
More
The regional yield can change: some regions improve while others decline (mainly driven by
drought)
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How do risks evolve globally?
Impacts are expressed as the percentage area affected. The reference is the current area (crops) or the total amount of land (ecosystems).
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
Ecosystems Yielddecrease
Yieldincrease
Extentdecrease
Extentexpansion
1 oC 2 oC 3 oC
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1 2 3 4 5
Past Future
0
Risk to Some Risk to ManyRisks to unique & valuable systems
Increase Large increaseRisk of extreme weather events
Negative for some regions
Negative formost regions
Distribution of impacts
Net Negativefor most metrics
Positive or negative Market impacts, Majority of People adversely affected
Aggregate impacts
Very low HigherRisks from future large-scale discontinuities
The reasons for concern
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IPCC SRES scenarios and reason for concerns for dangerous
impacts
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KEY
Condition
Changing Capacity
Environmental Scorecard
Source: Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems, WRI, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank
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Driver
Response
HumanImpact
MA will address impacts of multiple drivers
IPCC
Climate Change
Energy Sector Biodiversity Food
Supply Water
Health Economics Social
Ecosystems
Health Economics Social
ClimateChange
Land CoverChange
BiodiversityLoss
NutrientLoading Etc.
MA
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The MA assessment frameworkScale 3
Scale 2
Demand
Scale 1
Primary Drivers• Demographic Change• Economic Change • Social and Political
Change• Technological change• Lifestyle and Behavioral
change
Proximate Drivers
•Climate Change•Land Use & Cover
Change•Factor inputs•Pollution•Nutrient Release•Species Introductions•Harvest
Ecosystems & their Services•Supporting (Biodiversity and
ecosystem processes)•Provisioning (Food,
water,fiber, fuel, other biological products)
•Enriching (Cultural, aesthetic)
Wellbeing & Poverty Reduction
•Health and disease•Environmental Security•Cultural Security•Economic Security•Equity
= Strategies and Interventions
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Thanks for your attention
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An example of the monthly exceedance indicator
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An example of the monthly exceedance indicator
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Global exceedance
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Regional Exceedance
Higher temperature increase but broad temperature ranges
(especially in the winter): all ecosystems affected but not throughout the
year
Medium temperature increase but less
broad temperature ranges:
all ecosystems affected during most
of the year
Small temperature increase but narrow
temperature ranges: almost all ecosystems affected during most of
the year
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Spatial pattern of exceedance in 2050