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Census Bureau’s Interim and Final State Projections

Mar 21, 2016

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Census Bureau’s Interim and Final State Projections. Population Projections Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau. Interim State Population Projections 2004 - 2030. Introduction. Rationale for interim population projections Section outline Methodology Assumptions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

  • Census Bureaus Interim and Final State ProjectionsPopulation Projections BranchPopulation DivisionU.S. Census Bureau

    U.S. Census Bureau

  • Interim State Population Projections 2004 - 2030

    U.S. Census Bureau

  • IntroductionRationale for interim population projections

    Section outline MethodologyAssumptionsProposed products

    U.S. Census Bureau

  • MethodologyCohort Component MethodProject Births, Deaths, Internal Migration, and International Migration separatelyBasic Formula:P1 = P0 + B - D + IIM - IOM + NIM

    Where,P0 = Base year populationB = Projected births D = Projected deaths IIM = Projected internal in-migration IOM = Projected internal out-migration NIM = Projected net international migration

    U.S. Census Bureau

  • AssumptionsFertility: Fertility rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated births from 2001 to 2003Mortality:Mortality rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated deaths from 2001 to 2003Internal migration:Follow the IRS migration trends in region-to-state and state-to-region migration flows.Hold the composition of 1995-2000 census migration flows constant.International migration:Follow the current international trends in statesHold constant the composition of 1995-2000 immigrant population in the state

    U.S. Census Bureau

  • Proposed ProductsHighlights (Press release)

    Summary tables with statistics such as median age, sex ratio, dependency ratio and graphs such as pyramids

    Detailed age, and sex for all states, year by year (2004-2030)

    U.S. Census Bureau

  • U.S. Census Bureau

    Profile

    Population Pyramids of United States: TotalState

    Percent of Total Population

    20002020

    Year

    Race/Origin

    Age GroupProjection 2020Census 20002000 - 2020 Change

    NumberTotalTotalTotal

    TotalMaleFemalePercentNumberPercentNumberPercent

    Total335,804,546165,093,306170,711,240100.0281,421,906100.054,382,64019.32

    0 - 422,932,05611,716,38711,215,6696.819,175,7986.83,756,25819.59

    5 - 922,563,72611,524,75911,038,9676.720,549,5057.32,014,2219.80

    10 - 1421,913,74211,194,35810,719,3846.520,528,0727.31,385,6706.75

    15 - 1921,478,01610,985,18210,492,8346.420,219,8907.21,258,1266.22

    20 - 2420,750,76710,584,26810,166,4996.218,964,0016.71,786,7669.42

    25 - 2922,361,30011,348,37311,012,9276.719,381,3366.92,979,96415.38

    30 - 3422,704,39711,490,32611,214,0716.820,510,3887.32,194,00910.70

    35 - 3922,142,57111,180,01110,962,5606.622,706,6648.1-564,093-2.48

    40 - 4420,673,19210,363,45410,309,7386.222,441,8638.0-1,768,671-7.88

    45 - 4920,219,16010,050,71710,168,4436.020,092,4047.1126,7560.63

    50 - 5420,702,17210,223,03410,479,1386.217,585,5486.23,116,62417.72

    55 - 5921,875,61010,663,60711,212,0036.513,469,2374.88,406,37362.41

    60 - 6420,855,94610,028,79710,827,1496.210,805,4473.810,050,49993.01

    65 - 6917,618,2708,284,4179,333,8535.29,533,5453.48,084,72584.80

    70 - 7414,160,8896,469,9557,690,9344.28,857,4413.15,303,44859.88

    75 - 799,449,8424,107,2425,342,6002.87,415,8132.62,034,02927.43

    80 - 846,133,9822,475,0533,658,9291.84,945,3671.81,188,61524.03

    85+7,268,9082,403,3664,865,5422.24,239,5871.53,029,32171.45

    Under 1880,299,80641,028,23739,271,56923.972,293,81225.78,005,99411.07

    5-1757,367,75029,311,85028,055,90017.153,118,01418.94,249,7368.00

    18-2429,338,50114,976,71714,361,7848.727,143,4549.62,195,0478.09

    25-4487,881,46044,382,16443,499,29626.285,040,25130.22,841,2093.34

    45-6483,652,88840,966,15542,686,73324.961,952,63622.021,700,25235.03

    65+54,631,89123,740,03330,891,85816.334,991,75312.419,640,13856.13

    Age Indicator20202000ChangeSex Indicator20202000Change

    Median Age38.035.32.7Child-Women Ratio35.731.14.6

    Male36.734.02.6Sex Ratio96.796.30.4

    Female39.336.52.8Under 18104.5105.2-0.7

    Dependency Ratio74.669.65.118-6499.898.90.9

    Youth46.248.5-2.365-8482.075.06.9

    Elderly28.421.17.385+49.440.78.7

    * Dependency Ratio = (Age under 20 + Age 65 and over) / (Age 20-64) X 100* Child-Women ratio = Age under 5 / Female 15 - 44 X 100

    * Youth dependency ratio = Age under 20 / Age 20- 64 X 100* Sex Ratio = Male / Female X 100

    * Elderly dependency ratio = Age 65 and over / Age 20 - 64 X100

    Profile

    3.3399395969-3.4890495497

    3.2873191062-3.4319842114

    3.1921497573-3.3335933457

    3.1246849172-3.2713023486

    3.0275048748-3.1519132561

    3.2795645953-3.3794578231

    3.3394637248-3.42173033

    3.2645656917-3.3293209199

    3.0701603426-3.0861565525

    3.028083783-2.9930258895

    3.1206063541-3.0443405611

    3.3388478904-3.1755397975

    3.2242413419-2.9864982828

    2.7795493275-2.4670353927

    2.2903007394-1.9267026242

    1.590985013-1.2231049427

    1.0896007941-0.7370516658

    1.4489208255-0.7157038309

    Female

    Male

    File

    -3.48612982533.3277668868

    -3.73932404543.5627034663

    -3.73822960323.5561819413

    -3.69232237383.4925802826

    -3.44245198883.2961851236

    -3.48187535913.4050568899

    -3.66772052213.6204072188

    -4.02196693254.0465819317

    -3.95459691044.0198579993

    -3.51412089433.6254810953

    -3.0586545743.1901653029

    -2.31280112222.4733355334

    -1.82524064062.0143492312

    -1.56361743921.8240168553

    -1.38685436951.760534235

    -1.08181201791.5533108499

    -0.65200930021.1052693247

    -0.43599946341.0704884502

    Male

    Female

    Template

    Tabulation of State ProjectionsC:\Projections\StateProj\

    C:\Projections\StateProj\[PrjSmryMacro.xls]File

    C:\Projections\StateProj\[PrjSmryMacro.xls]File

    21Year2020CRTL-o

    52State99USUnited States

    1RaceTotal

    State\state1\Directory:C:\Projections\StateProj\State\state1\

    PrjState.xlsF12C:\Projections\StateProj\State\state1\PrjState.xls

    State Specific files

    PrjstateUS.xlsF16C:\Projections\StateProj\State\state1\PrjstateUS.xls

    PrjstateUS.xls

    PrjstateUS.xls

    Base Year 2000

    Input\Directory:C:\Projections\StateProj\Input\Total population

    Component total

    MiniRace85.xlsF23C:\Projections\StateProj\Input\MiniRace85.xls

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Female

    SmryData

    112233445566778899101011111212202012000Minimum Race Groups: Race Alone20001

    1212121212121212121212121212121212121212121212121212

    NonHispanicHispanicTotalCumulated for Median AgeNonHispanicHispanicTotalCumulated for Median age

    WhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RaceWhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RaceWhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RaceWhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RacePercent of Total

    YearFIPSStateAgeMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleTotalMaleFemaleTotalYearFIPSStateAgeMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleTotalMaleFemaleTotal

    202099U.S.01217258115682433329032428826795252271024109993057165691889528476451908349782127827254741234911586474338332446220315756152732356625225291446095392356625225291446095390200099US011351681074943274065266095172271643867356641382910275257680558233569903401971740916597649561433154304412411184932292771949017185663138056481949017185663138056480

    202099U.S.112193451158986332288323374263422482410235810245156085588875838346251343949261627553252591208911364472639242395216215481150022349207224901245982194705832450192692077581200099US111518521092291277757269472176751701766012661743078288256415542713442073299731694116598632359173048298011611173863687291953105186747738205823902122372410876262301

    202099U.S.2122178211611373319013230262592124439102230102882550654918628582230508154487775273032507111838111464693393423482121152181474323431792243995458717470490116745921137949322200099US2114382310852652795202697251728916723682766761530292800530755181133909432371716432157696066590829222857112610928338817419389901851456379044658411125575564114166762

    202099U.S.3122335811626083318203230022551324066102083102288541053958501881035503264483316270632490511588109234655390723042083149611449423370372238022457505993860488983943183699913200099US3116378111049742802102721851747317006692886941029902796512574999133955432426316270157126174589728802803118610947900770519589631873836383279978000757449400152494753

    202099U.S.412241991163614331866323068251222371010166410139053165296837597986349867747918626825247381134710707460138692262204114701142442330339223172645620651171638711215669229320564200099US4120059911346462903432815541785317179704976987330853007507194866634314232786716389156926131583428862709119011047824753420106581915665392632398107339365065191757984

    202099U.S.512243321164053331908323104247342335110131510062952235194824877868849440847537726587245751111010486455338402218200314439140012323314222530145486151403970113440970274806715200099US512144331148325301580292229183101760270140676773179302348668474243406733250191637615763622359312756272312301114750472012031072193403139651031184180511299096231409015

    202099U.S.612235801163480331812323068243452298810125010003451325085811887747049032847169526344244111087110265451038182173196714172137502315705221803145337361635540615659001320144076200099US612336701166944313121304192190381870270144665223242326446800456543387413234231630216015610460222708259811551058719270942058217196148840197051390002213260584271606066

    202099U.S.71221856116188133135932264823938226161012929954250414971798477621848622746800226073242121063310032446638022129192413899134872306760220933545160951866216617868336365305027200099US7127133612012063259953149911992819541706256750732893159455644463733