Mar 21, 2016
Census Bureaus Interim and Final State ProjectionsPopulation Projections BranchPopulation DivisionU.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau
Interim State Population Projections 2004 - 2030
U.S. Census Bureau
IntroductionRationale for interim population projections
Section outline MethodologyAssumptionsProposed products
U.S. Census Bureau
MethodologyCohort Component MethodProject Births, Deaths, Internal Migration, and International Migration separatelyBasic Formula:P1 = P0 + B - D + IIM - IOM + NIM
Where,P0 = Base year populationB = Projected births D = Projected deaths IIM = Projected internal in-migration IOM = Projected internal out-migration NIM = Projected net international migration
U.S. Census Bureau
AssumptionsFertility: Fertility rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated births from 2001 to 2003Mortality:Mortality rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated deaths from 2001 to 2003Internal migration:Follow the IRS migration trends in region-to-state and state-to-region migration flows.Hold the composition of 1995-2000 census migration flows constant.International migration:Follow the current international trends in statesHold constant the composition of 1995-2000 immigrant population in the state
U.S. Census Bureau
Proposed ProductsHighlights (Press release)
Summary tables with statistics such as median age, sex ratio, dependency ratio and graphs such as pyramids
Detailed age, and sex for all states, year by year (2004-2030)
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau
Profile
Population Pyramids of United States: TotalState
Percent of Total Population
20002020
Year
Race/Origin
Age GroupProjection 2020Census 20002000 - 2020 Change
NumberTotalTotalTotal
TotalMaleFemalePercentNumberPercentNumberPercent
Total335,804,546165,093,306170,711,240100.0281,421,906100.054,382,64019.32
0 - 422,932,05611,716,38711,215,6696.819,175,7986.83,756,25819.59
5 - 922,563,72611,524,75911,038,9676.720,549,5057.32,014,2219.80
10 - 1421,913,74211,194,35810,719,3846.520,528,0727.31,385,6706.75
15 - 1921,478,01610,985,18210,492,8346.420,219,8907.21,258,1266.22
20 - 2420,750,76710,584,26810,166,4996.218,964,0016.71,786,7669.42
25 - 2922,361,30011,348,37311,012,9276.719,381,3366.92,979,96415.38
30 - 3422,704,39711,490,32611,214,0716.820,510,3887.32,194,00910.70
35 - 3922,142,57111,180,01110,962,5606.622,706,6648.1-564,093-2.48
40 - 4420,673,19210,363,45410,309,7386.222,441,8638.0-1,768,671-7.88
45 - 4920,219,16010,050,71710,168,4436.020,092,4047.1126,7560.63
50 - 5420,702,17210,223,03410,479,1386.217,585,5486.23,116,62417.72
55 - 5921,875,61010,663,60711,212,0036.513,469,2374.88,406,37362.41
60 - 6420,855,94610,028,79710,827,1496.210,805,4473.810,050,49993.01
65 - 6917,618,2708,284,4179,333,8535.29,533,5453.48,084,72584.80
70 - 7414,160,8896,469,9557,690,9344.28,857,4413.15,303,44859.88
75 - 799,449,8424,107,2425,342,6002.87,415,8132.62,034,02927.43
80 - 846,133,9822,475,0533,658,9291.84,945,3671.81,188,61524.03
85+7,268,9082,403,3664,865,5422.24,239,5871.53,029,32171.45
Under 1880,299,80641,028,23739,271,56923.972,293,81225.78,005,99411.07
5-1757,367,75029,311,85028,055,90017.153,118,01418.94,249,7368.00
18-2429,338,50114,976,71714,361,7848.727,143,4549.62,195,0478.09
25-4487,881,46044,382,16443,499,29626.285,040,25130.22,841,2093.34
45-6483,652,88840,966,15542,686,73324.961,952,63622.021,700,25235.03
65+54,631,89123,740,03330,891,85816.334,991,75312.419,640,13856.13
Age Indicator20202000ChangeSex Indicator20202000Change
Median Age38.035.32.7Child-Women Ratio35.731.14.6
Male36.734.02.6Sex Ratio96.796.30.4
Female39.336.52.8Under 18104.5105.2-0.7
Dependency Ratio74.669.65.118-6499.898.90.9
Youth46.248.5-2.365-8482.075.06.9
Elderly28.421.17.385+49.440.78.7
* Dependency Ratio = (Age under 20 + Age 65 and over) / (Age 20-64) X 100* Child-Women ratio = Age under 5 / Female 15 - 44 X 100
* Youth dependency ratio = Age under 20 / Age 20- 64 X 100* Sex Ratio = Male / Female X 100
* Elderly dependency ratio = Age 65 and over / Age 20 - 64 X100
Profile
3.3399395969-3.4890495497
3.2873191062-3.4319842114
3.1921497573-3.3335933457
3.1246849172-3.2713023486
3.0275048748-3.1519132561
3.2795645953-3.3794578231
3.3394637248-3.42173033
3.2645656917-3.3293209199
3.0701603426-3.0861565525
3.028083783-2.9930258895
3.1206063541-3.0443405611
3.3388478904-3.1755397975
3.2242413419-2.9864982828
2.7795493275-2.4670353927
2.2903007394-1.9267026242
1.590985013-1.2231049427
1.0896007941-0.7370516658
1.4489208255-0.7157038309
Female
Male
File
-3.48612982533.3277668868
-3.73932404543.5627034663
-3.73822960323.5561819413
-3.69232237383.4925802826
-3.44245198883.2961851236
-3.48187535913.4050568899
-3.66772052213.6204072188
-4.02196693254.0465819317
-3.95459691044.0198579993
-3.51412089433.6254810953
-3.0586545743.1901653029
-2.31280112222.4733355334
-1.82524064062.0143492312
-1.56361743921.8240168553
-1.38685436951.760534235
-1.08181201791.5533108499
-0.65200930021.1052693247
-0.43599946341.0704884502
Male
Female
Template
Tabulation of State ProjectionsC:\Projections\StateProj\
C:\Projections\StateProj\[PrjSmryMacro.xls]File
C:\Projections\StateProj\[PrjSmryMacro.xls]File
21Year2020CRTL-o
52State99USUnited States
1RaceTotal
State\state1\Directory:C:\Projections\StateProj\State\state1\
PrjState.xlsF12C:\Projections\StateProj\State\state1\PrjState.xls
State Specific files
PrjstateUS.xlsF16C:\Projections\StateProj\State\state1\PrjstateUS.xls
PrjstateUS.xls
PrjstateUS.xls
Base Year 2000
Input\Directory:C:\Projections\StateProj\Input\Total population
Component total
MiniRace85.xlsF23C:\Projections\StateProj\Input\MiniRace85.xls
Male
Female
Male
Female
SmryData
112233445566778899101011111212202012000Minimum Race Groups: Race Alone20001
1212121212121212121212121212121212121212121212121212
NonHispanicHispanicTotalCumulated for Median AgeNonHispanicHispanicTotalCumulated for Median age
WhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RaceWhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RaceWhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RaceWhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsianHawaiianMulti-RacePercent of Total
YearFIPSStateAgeMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleTotalMaleFemaleTotalYearFIPSStateAgeMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleTotalMaleFemaleTotal
202099U.S.01217258115682433329032428826795252271024109993057165691889528476451908349782127827254741234911586474338332446220315756152732356625225291446095392356625225291446095390200099US011351681074943274065266095172271643867356641382910275257680558233569903401971740916597649561433154304412411184932292771949017185663138056481949017185663138056480
202099U.S.112193451158986332288323374263422482410235810245156085588875838346251343949261627553252591208911364472639242395216215481150022349207224901245982194705832450192692077581200099US111518521092291277757269472176751701766012661743078288256415542713442073299731694116598632359173048298011611173863687291953105186747738205823902122372410876262301
202099U.S.2122178211611373319013230262592124439102230102882550654918628582230508154487775273032507111838111464693393423482121152181474323431792243995458717470490116745921137949322200099US2114382310852652795202697251728916723682766761530292800530755181133909432371716432157696066590829222857112610928338817419389901851456379044658411125575564114166762
202099U.S.3122335811626083318203230022551324066102083102288541053958501881035503264483316270632490511588109234655390723042083149611449423370372238022457505993860488983943183699913200099US3116378111049742802102721851747317006692886941029902796512574999133955432426316270157126174589728802803118610947900770519589631873836383279978000757449400152494753
202099U.S.412241991163614331866323068251222371010166410139053165296837597986349867747918626825247381134710707460138692262204114701142442330339223172645620651171638711215669229320564200099US4120059911346462903432815541785317179704976987330853007507194866634314232786716389156926131583428862709119011047824753420106581915665392632398107339365065191757984
202099U.S.512243321164053331908323104247342335110131510062952235194824877868849440847537726587245751111010486455338402218200314439140012323314222530145486151403970113440970274806715200099US512144331148325301580292229183101760270140676773179302348668474243406733250191637615763622359312756272312301114750472012031072193403139651031184180511299096231409015
202099U.S.612235801163480331812323068243452298810125010003451325085811887747049032847169526344244111087110265451038182173196714172137502315705221803145337361635540615659001320144076200099US612336701166944313121304192190381870270144665223242326446800456543387413234231630216015610460222708259811551058719270942058217196148840197051390002213260584271606066
202099U.S.71221856116188133135932264823938226161012929954250414971798477621848622746800226073242121063310032446638022129192413899134872306760220933545160951866216617868336365305027200099US7127133612012063259953149911992819541706256750732893159455644463733