NAIC CIPR - Census Bureau Projections Ortman...6/10/2015 5 2014 National Projections Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the U.S. population by age,

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Is Demography Destiny?Population Projections Provide a Sneak

Peak into How the Future May Unfold

Presentation for the CIPR Symposium: Boom or Bust? A Look into Retirement Issues Facing Baby Boomers

June 15, 2015

Jennifer M. Ortman and Christopher Dick

This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and toencourage discussion of work in progress. Any views expressed on statistical,methodological, or technical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of theU.S. Census Bureau.

Overview Background What? Why? How?

Results from the 2014 National Projections An Aging Nation

How to access projections data

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What data do we produce?

National Projections Produced every 2 years this

decade (2012, 2014, etc.) Demographic detail includes

age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity (in 2014)

Projections for 50-year horizon

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What data do we produce?

National Projections Produced every 2 years this

decade (2012, 2014, etc.) Demographic detail includes

age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity (in 2014)

Projections for 50-year horizon

State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full

demographic detail Haven’t released full detail

state projections since 1997 Links to states producing

their own projections on our website

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Why do we produce projections?

Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging: older population for

health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics: working-age population for

labor force projections National Cancer Institute: projection of deaths to

project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning, by businesses,

and for academic research

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How are estimates different from projections?

Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data

Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic

trends When both an estimate and projection are

available for the same date, estimates are the preferred data.

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Making National Projections

Starting Population

Birthsand

Immigrants

Deathsand

EmigrantsFuture

Population

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Aging

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2014 National Projections Second series of projections based on the

2010 Census Projections of the U.S. population by age, sex,

race, Hispanic origin, and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate

separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women

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276.4 286.6 302.5 315.1 326.0 338.6

42.347.9

56.965.1

72.378.2

13.3 14.3 15.8 17.1 18.2 18.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born

United States Population by Nativity: 2014 to 2060(Population in millions)

318.7334.5

359.4380.2

398.3416.8

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-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 30

102030405060708090

100+

201475 million in baby boom ages(24% of the total population)

Male Female

Baby Boom Ages

3 2 1 0 1 2 30

102030405060708090

100+

203061 million in baby boom ages(17% of the total population)

Male Female

Baby Boom Ages

3 2 1 0 1 2 30

102030405060708090

100+

20603 million in baby boom ages

(0.6% of the total population)

Male Female

Baby Boom Ages

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 30

102030405060708090

100+

196573 million in baby boom ages (37% of the total population)

FemaleMale

Baby Boom Ages

United States Population by Age and Sex: 1965 to 2060(Population in millions)

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46

56

74

8288

98

15 1721 22 22 24

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Population aged 65 years and over (in millions)Percent of total population

Population 65 and Over: 2014 to 2060

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13

108 7

6 5 5

15

39

31

11

7

12

2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060

Total population 65 and over

Percent Change in Population Size by Decade: 2000-2010 to 2050-2060

14

47

53

57

33

35

30

20

12

13

2060

2030

2014

65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over

Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group: 2014 to 2060(Percent of population 65 and over)

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 20600

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Projected Dependency Ratios: 2014 to 2060Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age DependencyRatio

Note: Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and over/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.Youth dependency = (Population under 18/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)/Population aged 18 to 64)*100

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3840

45

49

5356

2224

28

34

40

45

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Total population 65 and over

Percent Minority: 2014 to 2060Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic White alone population.

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Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries: 2014 and 2050

Developed Countries

Largest Developing Countries 15

19

27

26

22

32

29

26

24

31

26

31

30

40

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India

Indonesia

China

Russia

United States

Poland

Ukraine

Canada

United Kingdom

Spain

France

Italy

Germany

Japan

World

2050

6

7

10

13

15

15

16

17

18

18

18

21

21

26

8

India

Indonesia

China

Russia

United States

Poland

Ukraine

Canada

United Kingdom

Spain

France

Italy

Germany

Japan

World

2014

Accessing U.S. Projections Datahttp://www.census.gov/topics/population/population-projections.html

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Accessing International Projections Datahttp://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/

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Contact InformationJennifer Ortman

[email protected] Dick

[email protected]

Projections Branch(301) 763-2428

http://www.census.gov/topics/population/population-projections.html

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