Census Bureau’s Interim and Census Bureau’s Interim and Final State ProjectionsFinal State Projections

Population Projections BranchPopulation Projections BranchPopulation DivisionPopulation DivisionU.S. Census BureauU.S. Census Bureau

Interim State Population Interim State Population ProjectionsProjections

2004 - 2030 2004 - 2030

3

IntroductionIntroduction

Rationale for interim population projections

Section outline Methodology Assumptions Proposed products

4

MethodologyMethodology

Cohort Component Method Project Births, Deaths, Internal Migration, and International Migration

separately Basic Formula:

P1 = P0 + B - D + IIM - IOM + NIM

Where,P0 = Base year populationB = Projected births D = Projected deaths IIM = Projected internal in-migration IOM = Projected internal out-migration NIM = Projected net international migration

5

AssumptionsAssumptions

Fertility: Fertility rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated births from 2001

to 2003 Mortality:

Mortality rates held constant, with adjustment to fit estimated deaths from 2001 to 2003

Internal migration: Follow the IRS migration trends in region-to-state and state-to-region

migration flows. Hold the composition of 1995-2000 census migration flows constant.

International migration: Follow the current international trends in states Hold constant the composition of 1995-2000 immigrant population in the state

6

Proposed ProductsProposed Products

Highlights (Press release)

Summary tables with statistics such as median age, sex ratio, dependency ratio and graphs such as pyramids

Detailed age, and sex for all states, year by year (2004-2030)

7

State

2000 2020Year

Race/Origin

Projection 2020Number Total

Total Male Female Percent Number Percent Number PercentTotal 335,804,546 165,093,306 170,711,240 100.0 281,421,906 100.0 54,382,640 19.32 0 - 4 22,932,056 11,716,387 11,215,669 6.8 19,175,798 6.8 3,756,258 19.59 5 - 9 22,563,726 11,524,759 11,038,967 6.7 20,549,505 7.3 2,014,221 9.8010 - 14 21,913,742 11,194,358 10,719,384 6.5 20,528,072 7.3 1,385,670 6.7515 - 19 21,478,016 10,985,182 10,492,834 6.4 20,219,890 7.2 1,258,126 6.2220 - 24 20,750,767 10,584,268 10,166,499 6.2 18,964,001 6.7 1,786,766 9.4225 - 29 22,361,300 11,348,373 11,012,927 6.7 19,381,336 6.9 2,979,964 15.3830 - 34 22,704,397 11,490,326 11,214,071 6.8 20,510,388 7.3 2,194,009 10.7035 - 39 22,142,571 11,180,011 10,962,560 6.6 22,706,664 8.1 -564,093 -2.4840 - 44 20,673,192 10,363,454 10,309,738 6.2 22,441,863 8.0 -1,768,671 -7.8845 - 49 20,219,160 10,050,717 10,168,443 6.0 20,092,404 7.1 126,756 0.6350 - 54 20,702,172 10,223,034 10,479,138 6.2 17,585,548 6.2 3,116,624 17.7255 - 59 21,875,610 10,663,607 11,212,003 6.5 13,469,237 4.8 8,406,373 62.4160 - 64 20,855,946 10,028,797 10,827,149 6.2 10,805,447 3.8 10,050,499 93.0165 - 69 17,618,270 8,284,417 9,333,853 5.2 9,533,545 3.4 8,084,725 84.8070 - 74 14,160,889 6,469,955 7,690,934 4.2 8,857,441 3.1 5,303,448 59.8875 - 79 9,449,842 4,107,242 5,342,600 2.8 7,415,813 2.6 2,034,029 27.4380 - 84 6,133,982 2,475,053 3,658,929 1.8 4,945,367 1.8 1,188,615 24.03 85+ 7,268,908 2,403,366 4,865,542 2.2 4,239,587 1.5 3,029,321 71.45

Under 18 80,299,806 41,028,237 39,271,569 23.9 72,293,812 25.7 8,005,994 11.075-17 57,367,750 29,311,850 28,055,900 17.1 53,118,014 18.9 4,249,736 8.00

18-24 29,338,501 14,976,717 14,361,784 8.7 27,143,454 9.6 2,195,047 8.0925-44 87,881,460 44,382,164 43,499,296 26.2 85,040,251 30.2 2,841,209 3.3445-64 83,652,888 40,966,155 42,686,733 24.9 61,952,636 22.0 21,700,252 35.0365+ 54,631,891 23,740,033 30,891,858 16.3 34,991,753 12.4 19,640,138 56.13

Age Indicator 2020 2000 Change Sex Indicator 2020 2000 ChangeMedian Age 38.0 35.3 2.7 Child-Women Ratio 35.7 31.1 4.6 Male 36.7 34.0 2.6 Sex Ratio 96.7 96.3 0.4 Female 39.3 36.5 2.8 Under 18 104.5 105.2 -0.7Dependency Ratio 74.6 69.6 5.1 18-64 99.8 98.9 0.9 Youth 46.2 48.5 -2.3 65-84 82.0 75.0 6.9 Elderly 28.4 21.1 7.3 85+ 49.4 40.7 8.7

* Dependency Ratio = (Age under 20 + Age 65 and over) / (Age 20-64) X 100 * Child-Women ratio = Age under 5 / Female 15 - 44 X 100* Youth dependency ratio = Age under 20 / Age 20- 64 X 100 * Sex Ratio = Male / Female X 100

Age Group

Percent of Total PopulationPopulation Pyramids of United States: Total

TotalTotalCensus 2000 2000 - 2020 Change

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 55 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+

Male FemaleMale Female 2020

Total

United States

Final State Population Final State Population ProjectionsProjections

2005 - 2030 2005 - 2030

9

IntroductionIntroduction

Challenges to new projections Data consistency issues between Census 2000 and previous

censuses Data consistency issues between census data and other data

sources such as NCHS

Section outline Methodology Input data Assumptions Proposed products

10

MethodologyMethodology

Cohort Component Method Project Births, Deaths, Internal Migration, and International Migration

separately Basic Formula:

P1 = P0 + B - D + IIM - IOM + NIM

Where,P0 = Base year populationB = Projected births D = Projected deaths IIM = Projected internal in-migration IOM = Projected internal out-migration NIM = Projected net international migration

11

MethodologyMethodology

To project the demographic details, the formula should be expanded as follows:

1 Pi,j,k = 0 P(i-1),j,k + Bj,k - Di,j,k + IIMi,j,k - IOMi,j,k + NIMi,j,k

Where, i = age ( 0 - 85 and over)j = sex (male, female)k = race/Hispanic origin (White, Black, American Indian, Asian, Hawaiian, and multi-race by Hispanic origin, a total of 12 groups)

12

Input DataInput Data Starting point:

Census 2000 for base year and denominator of rates Births 1999, 2000, 2001 for fertility rates Deaths 1999, 2000, 2001 for mortality rates Internal migration:

IRS annual migration flows data: 1975 -2003 Census migration flows data: 1995-2000

Foreign born population entering U.S. : 1995 - 2000 Population estimates and component of change: 2001 to 2004

Age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all data items except IRS

13

Input DataInput Data

Projection years: Projected national fertility rates Projected national survival rates Projected IRS region-to-state and state-to-region migration rates Projected national population Projected national births Projected national deaths Projected national international migration Change in state fertility rates: 1990-2000 Change in state survival rates: 1990-2000

14

Base PopulationBase Population

Use modified Census 2000 race data (31 race combinations) The “some other race group” was eliminated http://eire.census.gov/popest/data/national/tables/files/MR(31)-CO.txt

Tabulate “Minimum and Maximum” race groups

Convert Census 2000 race groups to 1990 race groups, using equal fraction assignment procedure

State population estimates 2004

15

Fertility Input DataFertility Input Data

Births by age and race of mother from NCHS: 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2000, and 2001

Bridged census 2000 female 15-49 by race Age-specific fertility rates based on 1990 race only for 6 race

groups (1) Non-Hispanic total (2) Non-Hispanic white (3) Non-Hispanic black (4) Non-Hispanic American Indian (5) Non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander (6) Hispanic origin total

16

Mortality Input DataMortality Input Data

Deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2000, and 2001

Census 2000 by single years of age (0 ~ 100+), sex, race, and Hispanic origin (Bridged race groups)

Mortality rates by race and Hispanic origin Same as fertility rates by race, only prepare 6 race / Hispanic groups

and apply the mortality rates to appropriate race groups Prepare complete life tables and survival rates

Development of mortality changes by state (1990-2000)

17

Internal Migration Input DataInternal Migration Input Data

IRS region-to-state and state-to-region annual migration flows (1975 – 2003 time series): For projecting total internal migration into the future

Census 2000 region-to-state and state-to-region migration flows between 1995 and 2000 by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin For projecting the composition of internal migration by age, sex,

race, and Hispanic demographic detail, controlled to projected IRS migration flows

Data issues about 2,550 state-to-state migration flows Many small flows Empty data cells by demographic detail

18

International Migration Input DataInternational Migration Input Data

Estimates of net international migration rates by state 2001-2004

Foreign-born population entering the U.S. by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1995-2000

Projected national net international migration by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin

19

AssumptionsAssumptions

Fertility: Follow national trends, adjusted by state-specific change in fertility rates (1990-

2000) Mortality:

Follow national trends, adjusted by state-specific change in mortality rates (1990-2000)

Internal migration: Follow the IRS migration trends in region-to-state and state-to-region migration

flows. Hold the composition of 1995-2000 census migration flows constant.

International migration: Follow current international migration trends in the states and determined by

projected net international migration for the U.S. Hold constant the composition of 1995-2000 immigrant population in the state

20

Fertility Rate Projection Fertility Rate Projection

Population base Female 14-48+ base year population Female 15-49+ expected survived population

Project fertility rates Starting age-specific fertility rates… (f(t-1)) Projected national total fertility rates… (F(t)) Ratio of state total fertility rate change to national total

fertility change… [f(2000)/f(1990)]/[F(2000 /F(1990)]

Projection formula: f(t) = f(t-1) + (F(t) - F(t-1)) * [(f(2000)/f(1990)) / (F(2000)/F(1990))]

21

Survival Rate ProjectionSurvival Rate Projection

Project survival rates Starting age-specific survival rates… (s(t-1))

Projected national survival rates… (Sn(t))

Adjustment factor – Ratio of state-specific survival rate change to national survival rate change, using one minus probability of dying (1-Qx) by 5-year age… [s(2000)/s(1990)] /

[Sn(2000)/Sn(1990)]

Projection formula: s(t) = s(t-1) + (Sn(t) – Sn(t-1)) * [(s(2000)/s(1990)) /

(Sn(2000)/Sn(1990))]

22

Projection of IRS Migration FlowsProjection of IRS Migration Flows

Input time series (28 data points): 204 region-to-state migration rates (1975-1976 to 2002-2003) 204 state-to-region migration rates (1975-1976 to 2001-2003)

ARIMA time series projections of first difference in natural log of migration rates for the first 5 years (Using SAS program)

Interpolation from 5th year projected migration rates toward mean in the next 20 years

Hold the mean constant for remaining projection years

23

International Migration ProjectionInternational Migration Projection

Project total net international migration by state based on the estimates of net international migration, 2000-2004

Project composition of net international migration Population base Proportion of foreign-born population Control to projected total net international migration

Control to projected national international migration for the U.S.

24

Proposed ProductsProposed Products

Detailed age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all states, year by year (2005-2030)

Detailed age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin with components annually for individual states

Summary tables with statistics such as median age, dependency ratio, sex ratio, etc. and graphs such as population pyramids.

25

State

2000 2020Year

Race/Origin

Projection 2020Number Total

Total Male Female Percent Number Percent Number PercentTotal 335,804,546 165,093,306 170,711,240 100.0 281,421,906 100.0 54,382,640 19.32 0 - 4 22,932,056 11,716,387 11,215,669 6.8 19,175,798 6.8 3,756,258 19.59 5 - 9 22,563,726 11,524,759 11,038,967 6.7 20,549,505 7.3 2,014,221 9.8010 - 14 21,913,742 11,194,358 10,719,384 6.5 20,528,072 7.3 1,385,670 6.7515 - 19 21,478,016 10,985,182 10,492,834 6.4 20,219,890 7.2 1,258,126 6.2220 - 24 20,750,767 10,584,268 10,166,499 6.2 18,964,001 6.7 1,786,766 9.4225 - 29 22,361,300 11,348,373 11,012,927 6.7 19,381,336 6.9 2,979,964 15.3830 - 34 22,704,397 11,490,326 11,214,071 6.8 20,510,388 7.3 2,194,009 10.7035 - 39 22,142,571 11,180,011 10,962,560 6.6 22,706,664 8.1 -564,093 -2.4840 - 44 20,673,192 10,363,454 10,309,738 6.2 22,441,863 8.0 -1,768,671 -7.8845 - 49 20,219,160 10,050,717 10,168,443 6.0 20,092,404 7.1 126,756 0.6350 - 54 20,702,172 10,223,034 10,479,138 6.2 17,585,548 6.2 3,116,624 17.7255 - 59 21,875,610 10,663,607 11,212,003 6.5 13,469,237 4.8 8,406,373 62.4160 - 64 20,855,946 10,028,797 10,827,149 6.2 10,805,447 3.8 10,050,499 93.0165 - 69 17,618,270 8,284,417 9,333,853 5.2 9,533,545 3.4 8,084,725 84.8070 - 74 14,160,889 6,469,955 7,690,934 4.2 8,857,441 3.1 5,303,448 59.8875 - 79 9,449,842 4,107,242 5,342,600 2.8 7,415,813 2.6 2,034,029 27.4380 - 84 6,133,982 2,475,053 3,658,929 1.8 4,945,367 1.8 1,188,615 24.03 85+ 7,268,908 2,403,366 4,865,542 2.2 4,239,587 1.5 3,029,321 71.45

Under 18 80,299,806 41,028,237 39,271,569 23.9 72,293,812 25.7 8,005,994 11.075-17 57,367,750 29,311,850 28,055,900 17.1 53,118,014 18.9 4,249,736 8.00

18-24 29,338,501 14,976,717 14,361,784 8.7 27,143,454 9.6 2,195,047 8.0925-44 87,881,460 44,382,164 43,499,296 26.2 85,040,251 30.2 2,841,209 3.3445-64 83,652,888 40,966,155 42,686,733 24.9 61,952,636 22.0 21,700,252 35.0365+ 54,631,891 23,740,033 30,891,858 16.3 34,991,753 12.4 19,640,138 56.13

Age Indicator 2020 2000 Change Sex Indicator 2020 2000 ChangeMedian Age 38.0 35.3 2.7 Child-Women Ratio 35.7 31.1 4.6 Male 36.7 34.0 2.6 Sex Ratio 96.7 96.3 0.4 Female 39.3 36.5 2.8 Under 18 104.5 105.2 -0.7Dependency Ratio 74.6 69.6 5.1 18-64 99.8 98.9 0.9 Youth 46.2 48.5 -2.3 65-84 82.0 75.0 6.9 Elderly 28.4 21.1 7.3 85+ 49.4 40.7 8.7

* Dependency Ratio = (Age under 20 + Age 65 and over) / (Age 20-64) X 100 * Child-Women ratio = Age under 5 / Female 15 - 44 X 100* Youth dependency ratio = Age under 20 / Age 20- 64 X 100 * Sex Ratio = Male / Female X 100

Age Group

Percent of Total PopulationPopulation Pyramids of United States: Total

TotalTotalCensus 2000 2000 - 2020 Change

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 55 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+

Male FemaleMale Female 2020

Total

United States

26

State

2000 2020Year

Race/Origin

Projection 2020Number Total

Total Male Female Percent Number Percent Number PercentTotal 60,061,550 30,503,771 29,557,779 100.0 35,305,818 100.0 24,755,732 70.12 0 - 4 5,575,409 2,849,689 2,725,720 9.3 3,717,974 10.5 1,857,435 49.96 5 - 9 5,323,394 2,716,599 2,606,795 8.9 3,623,680 10.3 1,699,714 46.9110 - 14 5,090,101 2,597,206 2,492,895 8.5 3,163,412 9.0 1,926,689 60.9115 - 19 4,960,676 2,549,431 2,411,245 8.3 3,171,646 9.0 1,789,030 56.4120 - 24 4,674,439 2,415,029 2,259,410 7.8 3,409,427 9.7 1,265,012 37.1025 - 29 4,743,706 2,445,280 2,298,426 7.9 3,385,334 9.6 1,358,372 40.1330 - 34 4,357,964 2,236,701 2,121,263 7.3 3,124,901 8.9 1,233,063 39.4635 - 39 4,155,485 2,161,154 1,994,331 6.9 2,825,158 8.0 1,330,327 47.0940 - 44 4,115,551 2,179,426 1,936,125 6.9 2,304,152 6.5 1,811,399 78.6145 - 49 3,816,054 1,982,450 1,833,604 6.4 1,775,168 5.0 2,040,886 114.9750 - 54 3,332,688 1,713,241 1,619,447 5.5 1,360,935 3.9 1,971,753 144.8855 - 59 2,880,357 1,449,194 1,431,163 4.8 960,033 2.7 1,920,324 200.0360 - 64 2,277,170 1,114,477 1,162,693 3.8 750,407 2.1 1,526,763 203.4665 - 69 1,681,241 792,542 888,699 2.8 599,353 1.7 1,081,888 180.5170 - 74 1,209,690 546,943 662,747 2.0 477,266 1.4 732,424 153.4675 - 79 779,579 334,839 444,740 1.3 326,726 0.9 452,853 138.6080 - 84 517,731 211,318 306,413 0.9 179,538 0.5 338,193 188.37 85+ 570,315 208,252 362,063 0.9 150,708 0.4 419,607 278.42

Under 18 18,971,694 9,693,789 9,277,905 31.6 12,342,259 35.0 6,629,435 53.715-17 13,396,285 6,844,100 6,552,185 22.3 8,624,285 24.4 4,772,000 55.33

18-24 6,652,325 3,434,165 3,218,160 11.1 4,743,880 13.4 1,908,445 40.2325-44 17,372,706 9,022,561 8,350,145 28.9 11,639,545 33.0 5,733,161 49.2645-64 12,306,269 6,259,362 6,046,907 20.5 4,846,543 13.7 7,459,726 153.9265+ 4,758,556 2,093,894 2,664,662 7.9 1,733,591 4.9 3,024,965 174.49

Age Indicator 2020 2000 Change Sex Indicator 2020 2000 ChangeMedian Age 29.6 25.8 3.8 Child-Women Ratio 42.8 43.7 -0.9 Male 29.3 25.4 4.0 Sex Ratio 103.2 105.9 -2.7 Female 30.0 26.3 3.6 Under 18 104.6 106.0 -1.4Dependency Ratio 74.8 77.5 -2.6 18-64 106.2 109.6 -3.3 Youth 61.0 68.7 -7.8 65-84 81.9 74.8 7.1 Elderly 13.9 8.7 5.1 85+ 57.5 49.1 8.4

* Dependency Ratio = (Age under 20 + Age 65 and over) / (Age 20-64) X 100 * Child-Women ratio = Age under 5 / Female 15 - 44 X 100* Youth dependency ratio = Age under 20 / Age 20- 64 X 100 * Sex Ratio = Male / Female X 100

Age Group

Percent of Total PopulationPopulation Pyramids of United States: Hispanic

TotalTotalCensus 2000 2000 - 2020 Change

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 55 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+

Male FemaleMale Female 2020

Hispanic

United States