2016 07-12 ctp update and assessment

AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

July 12, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. The Hadi government and its military are preparing for an offensive to seize Sana’a militarily from the al Houthi-Saleh alliance.

2. Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri criticized ISIS emir Abu Bakr al Baghdadi for failing to submit to authority figures when he was an al Qaeda member.

3. Al Shabaab emir Ahmad Umar called for Muslims to join jihad in Somalia and conduct lone-wolf attacks in Kenya and Ethiopia.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda continues to compete with the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) for leadership of the global Salafi-jihadi movement by emphasizing al Qaeda’s subscription to the methodology for success derived by Salafi-jihadi scholars. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri eulogized former al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader Nasser al Wahayshi and criticized ISIS emir Abu Bakr al Baghdadi for failing to submit to authority figures when he was a part of the al Qaeda network in a July 10 statement. Al Qaeda leadership also continues to prime Hamza bin Laden, Osama Bin Laden’s son, for a leadership role within the al Qaeda network by including him in propaganda efforts. Hamza bin Laden threatened revenge against the United States for his father’s assassination and warned the American people that they are accountable for the decisions of their leaders in a July 9 video released by al Qaeda’s media wing, al Sahab, on Telegram and Twitter. This threat echoes a June 30 statement in which Zawahiri threatened consequences for the U.S. should it execute Boston marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev.

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to reaffirm its role in the al Qaeda network and ensure its vitality despite rumored setbacks. TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah al Khorasani claimed to have a robust fighting force, contrary to information indicating otherwise, in a July 5 statement. TTP spokesman Muhammad al Khorasani condemned the July 4 suicide bombing outside the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina, Saudi Arabia, in a July 7 statement. A reported U.S. airstrike may have killed TTP’s military commander for Darra Adam Kheil and Peshawar regions, Khalifa Umar Mansoor, in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan on July 9. Pakistani law enforcement agencies claimed to have killed a TTP military commander, Hafez Nisar, in Battagram in northern Pakistan on July 10, 2016.

Outlook: Al Qaeda and its branches will continue to reaffirm their legitimacy against competition from the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). Hamza bin Laden will occupy an increasingly visible role in al Qaeda’s information campaigns.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN-led peace process is breaking down as President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government and its military prepare for an offensive to regain control of Sana’a from the al Houthi-Saleh alliance. President Hadi declared on July 10 that Sana’a will soon be freed from al Houthi control. A member of Hadi’s government delegation ruled out returning to Kuwait talks on July 15, and Hadi’s Foreign Minister said on July 8 that his delegation no longer trusts the UN Special Envoy for Yemen.

Outlook: The peace talks will not resume on July 15 should a government assault on Sana’a proceed.

SecurityGovernment military forces are prepared to launch an offensive on Sana’a. Clashes between al Houthi-Saleh fighters and government forces intensified outside of Sana’a and in neighboring al Jawf governorate, and military officials visited two different bases near Sana’a to inspect troops for battle readiness. Yemeni army Gen. Mohsin Masrouf confirmed that the government army is prepared to begin the battle to liberate Sana'a, and Maj. Gen. Mohammed Ali al Maqdashi claimed that government forces will soon arrive in Amran and Sa’ada, al Houthi-Saleh strongholds.

Outlook: Government forces will launch a full-scale assault on Sana’a before the end of July.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP continued its campaign to destabilize governance in Aden with a complex attack on a military compound in Khormaksar, Aden on July 6, the first day of Eid al Fitr. A reported U.S. airstrike wounded four AQAP fighters in Jabul, Ma’rib governorate. Yemeni security forces also raided an AQAP weapons cache in Lahij governorate and arrested an AQAP member in Hadramawt. ISIS has not conducted a major attack since its June 26 coordinated explosive attack on Yemeni security personnel in al Mukalla, Hadramawt.

Outlook: AQAP will escalate its attacks against military personnel in Aden, and ISIS will attack a military target in Aden or al Mukalla in coming weeks.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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1) 06 JUL: AQAP conducted a complex attack on a military base in Khormaksar, Aden.2) 06 JUL: Al Houthi fighters clashed with Saleh supporters in Dhamar city.3) 08 JUL: Hadi government forces clashed with al Houthi- Saleh fighters in al Jawf. 4) 09 JUL: Hadi government forces secured positions east of Sana’a ahead of a planned offensive.5) 10 JUL: A reported U.S. airstrike targeted suspected AQAP fighters in Ma’rib.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe United Nations extended the authorization for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) through May 31, 2017. The AMISOM troop contributing countries (TCCs) announced their intention to begin transitioning security responsibility to Somali forces in 2018, and to withdraw completely by 2020.

Outlook: The Somali National Army (SNA) and Somali security apparatus will be incapable of providing adequate security by 2020 without external assistance.

Security Al Shabaab increased the frequency of its attacks on Kenyan targets following a brief lull in violence at the conclusion of Ramadan. One hundred al Shabaab fighters raided a Kenyan police station in Wajir County on July 8. Al Shabaab conducted a successful raid on the same station in April 2016.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to assault Kenyan security personnel and civilians in the border region between Kenya and Somalia. Al Shabaab will target communications infrastructure in order to maximize its impact on civilians.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab emir Ahmad Umar called on Ethiopian and Kenyan Muslims to conduct lone-wolf attacks. He also called for Somali Muslims to join jihad and noted the “depleted” morale of AMISOM forces. Umar extended Eid al Fitr greetings to al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri and blamed Turkey and NATO for Somalia’s economic troubles. Al Shabaab continues to resist SNA and AMISOM attempts to drive the group from population centers. Al Shabaab militants repelled an effort by coalition forces to recapture the town of Marka in Lower Shabelle region on July 11. Coalition forces have failed to rid Marka of al Shabaab militants on multiple occasions.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will increase the frequency and intensity of its operations in southern Somalia as the national electoral process begins on July 16.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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1) 08 JUL: Al Shabaab militants raided a Kenyan police station in Dijj, Wajir County, Kenya.2) 10 JUL: Al Shabaab fighters attacked an SNA and AMISOM base in Lanta Bure near Mogadishu.3) 10 JUL: Al Shabaab attacked a KDF convoy near Baure in Lamu County, Kenya.4) 11 JUL: SNA and AMISOM forces failed to force al Shabaab militants from Marka town, Lower Shabelle region.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalLibyan factions are leveraging the limited resumption of oil production to jockey for political and economic power. The eastern and western branches of the National Oil Company (NOC) of Libya, which are aligned with rival governments, announced their unification and their intention to coordinate with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and regional militias to reopen two of Libya’s largest oil-producing sites. The House of Representatives (HoR) in eastern Libya, which does not recognize the GNA, refused to acknowledge the unification without securing concessions.

Outlook: Oil production may spark clashes between competing factions in central and eastern Libya, drawing attention and resources away from counterterrorism operations. Salafi-jihadi groups, likely ISIS, may attack oil sites as they reopen.

SecurityIslamist militias with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia are cooperating against the Libyan National Army (LNA) in an effort to recapture safe havens in eastern Libya. The Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB), a militant coalition based in Ajdabiya, advanced towards Benghazi, prompting the LNA to declare a state of emergency. The LNA broke a temporary ceasefire and resumed airstrikes on the Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna, which has declared support for the BDB.

Outlook: The Benghazi fight will likely stall, and the LNA will leverage the counter-extremist fight to expand in central Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaThe fight for Sirte remains stalled, despite claims by Misratan forces operating under the GNA that they will clear ISIS’s final stronghold in the city within days. ISIS controls limited territory in the city but remains capable of attacking behind the Misratans’ front lines.

Outlook: ISIS may launch an explosive attack campaign in western Libya to counter its losses in Sirte.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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1) 10 JUL: Misratan forces continued to attack ISIS’s remaining strongholds in central Sirte city.2) 10 JUL: The BDB mobilized from Ajdabiya towards Benghazi and clashed with the LNA in Sultan.3) 06 JUL: ISIS militants launched a counterattack to recent LNA advances in western Benghazi.4) 09 JUL: The LNA resumed airstrikes in Derna after the collapse of a June 25 ceasefire.

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| ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)AQIM and ISIS continue to compete for dominance in the Maghreb region. Algerian security forces killed one likely AQIM militant in eastern Algeria. Moroccan security forces arrested a Belgian national with ties to ISIS. Outlook: AQIM will conduct small-scale attacks in Algeria to defend its safe havens from security forces.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Tunisian authorities are cracking down on Salafi-jihadi activity with renewed support from NATO. NATO pledged to increase assistance and training for Tunisian Special Forces and open an intelligence center in the country. Tunisian security forces have arrested more than 30 suspected terrorists in the past week. Many of the detainees have ties to the ISIS network in Libya and Syria. ISIS is using its global network to actively challenge the Tunisian state.

Outlook: ISIS will continue efforts to develop cells and build popular support in Tunisia, especially as increased security measures limit its options for cross-border attacks from Libya.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)Rising tensions are threatening to derail the peace process in northern Mali, giving AQIM and affiliated groups the opportunity to escalate against French and MINUSMA forces responding to the crisis. The emir of AQIM’s Sahara Emirate called for Muslims to fight French and UN forces following the UN’s decision to deploy additional peacekeepers and strengthen MINUSMA’s mandate. AQIM and affiliated groups may also be escalating activity in central Mali while government and international forces focus on the north.

Outlook: AQIM will conduct attacks targeting French or MINUSMA forces attempting to restore peace in northern Mali.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

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1) 07 JUL: Tunisian security forces dismantled a terrorist cell in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia.2) 08 JUL: The Algerian People’s National Army eliminated one terrorist in El Mnihla, Algeria.3) 09 JUL: Tunisian security forces arrested 16 suspected ISIS members in Tunis, Tunisia.4) 09 JUL: Moroccan security forces arrested an ISIS-linked individual in Fez, Morocco.

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL

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1) 07 JUL: Militants attacked a Malian outpost in Gossi, Mali.2) 09 JUL: Militants killed two Malian soldiers in Koro, Mali.3) 10 JUL: Militants detonated an IED on a MINUSMA supply truck in Tabankort, Mali.4) 11 JUL: Militants assassinated the deputy mayor of Ouro Modi, Mali.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch [email protected] (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran [email protected](202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram [email protected](202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran [email protected](202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

[email protected] (202) 888-6569