2016 08-23 ctp update and assessment

AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

August 23, 2016

2

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. The Libyan unity government’s lack of legitimacy may impede U.S. efforts to partner with it for future operations against ISIS and enemy groups in Libya.

2. Russia is opportunistically supporting both sides in Yemen’s political crisis to expand its sphere of influence in the Arabian Peninsula.

3. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri called for fighters to unify in their support for the Afghan Taliban and to reject and ignore ISIS.

2

13

3

| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda leadership continues to maintain a close relationship with the Afghan Taliban. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri

incited fighters to rally in support of the Afghan Taliban and to reject the call to join the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in an August 21 statement. Zawahiri’s call was probably a reaction to ISIS resurging in parts of Afghanistan as reports of Taliban militants switching allegiance to ISIS continued and timed with a Taliban offensive to control Kunduz City in northern Afghanistan. Zawahiri accused ISIS and its leader of dividing the ranks of the mujahideen.

Osama bin Laden’s son, Hamza bin Laden, continues to appear in al Qaeda’s media campaigns, as he assumes a leading public role for the group. He called on Saudi Arabian citizens to train with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen in order to overthrow the Saudi government and end American influence in the Kingdom. Al Sahab Media Foundation posted bin Laden’s statement on Telegram on August 17.

•Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates• The Pakistani Army continues to target militant strongholds in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) on the

border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It launched an operation in the Khyber Agency in western Pakistan on August 16. Pakistani fighter jets conducted airstrikes targeting Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan– (TTP) and Lashkar-e-Islam–affiliated militants in Khyber Agency on August 18.

• Pakistani security forces continue to target the TTP splinter group Jamatul Ahrar. Pakistani security forces raided Jamatul Ahrar positions in Balochistan Province after Jamatul Ahrar bombed a hospital in Quetta, Balochistan on August 8. They arrested 27 militants allegedly linked to the August 8 bombing in Balochistan on August 19.

Outlook: Al Qaeda leadership will maintain close ties with the Afghan Taliban.

4

| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalAl Houthi-Saleh leadership is seeking public and international support to legitimize the Supreme Political Committee (SPC), a newly formed power-sharing government body in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital. The SPC describes itself as the legitimate government of Yemen and has support within the al Houthi-Saleh base, though the UN recognizes the government under Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh offered Russia access to Yemen’s bases, airports, and ports on August 21, citing shared interests in “combating terrorism.” The Russian charge d’affaires in Yemen had praised the establishment of the SPC, calling it a “realistic authority” in mid August.

Outlook: The Supreme Political Council will probably announce economic and political measures to solidify its position.

SecurityHadi-allied forces may be seeking a decisive victory against the al Houthi-Saleh alliance. Hadi-allied forces continued shaping operations around Sana’a in preparation for a major offensive on the capital city. They resisted al Houthi-Saleh attempts to disrupt supply lines in Nihm district, northeast of Sana’a city, and in nearby al Jawf governorate. Hadi forces established a foothold in western Taiz city and continue to advance on al Houthi-Saleh–held areas in Taiz.

Outlook: Hadi-allied forces are unlikely to retain gains made in and around Taiz city.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP continues to undermine security in southern Yemen despite recent clearing operations by Hadi-allied forces. AQAP militants detonated a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) targeting Hadi-allied forces in Lawder district, Abyan governorate on August 18. Hadi-allied forces reportedly cleared Lawder city of AQAP militants on August 17. This attack demonstrates AQAP’s continued ability to carry out explosive attacks following territorial losses.ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan militants assassinated a police investigator in Aden on August 22. ISIS last claimed an attack in Yemen in late July 2016.

Outlook: AQAP will sustain its assassination campaign against Hadi-allied officials and local powerbrokers.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

5

| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

2

5

4

31

1) 17 AUG: Hadi-allied forces cleared AQAP militants from Lawder city, Abyan.2) 18 AUG: Saudi-led coalition airstrikes targeted al Houthi-Saleh positions in Sana’a city.3) 19 AUG: Hadi-allied forces advanced in western Taiz city.4) 20 AUG: Al Houthi-Saleh forces shelled areas in Najran city, Saudi Arabia.5) 22 AUG: ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan assassinated a police investigator in Sheikh Othman, Aden city.

6

| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalKenya reversed its decision to close the Dadaab refugee camp on August 21. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

announced $146 million in aid for the Dadaab refugees in Nairobi on August 22, possibly as part of a deal with Kenya to delay the camp’s closure. A forced repatriation of 300,000 ethnic Somalis would worsen the already tenuous security and humanitarian situation in Somalia.

Outlook: The U.S. government will continue pressuring Kenya to avoid a forced closure of the Dadaab refugee camp.

Security Somali, Kenyan, and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) security forces are increasing defensive measures in southern and central Somalia. AMISOM asked the Somali citizens to assist professional forces in providing security in the lead up to the parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for September and October 2016. Kenyan Defense Forces also deployed additional troops to counter al Shabaab activity along the Kenyan-Somali border.

Outlook: Security forces will probably increase operations around key population centers ahead of the 2016 elections.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab maintains an attack cell in north-central Somalia. Militants conducted a double SVBIED attack on an administrative building in Galkayo in Mudug region that killed at least 20 people. Al Shabaab has concentrated SVBIED attacks against targets in Mogadishu and in southern Somalia, though it has conducted a few mass-casualty attacks in north-central Somalia.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will probably continue to have support zones from which to operate attack cells in central and northern regions of Somalia.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

7

| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

1

2

3

4

HoA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 16 AUG -22 AUG

1) 17 AUG: U.S.-backed Somali SOF raid killed three al Shabaab militants near Kismayo, Lower Jubba region. 2) 18 AUG: Al Shabaab militants detonated an SVBIED at a checkpoint in Mogadishu. 3) 20 AUG: Al Shabaab attacked a Kenyan border patrol camp near Lafey town in Mandera County. 4) 21 AUG: Al Shabaab militants conducted a double SVBIED attack on a government facility in Galkayo town, Mudug region.

8

| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Tobruk-based Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) continues to undermine the Government of National Accord (GNA). The HoR met in a quorum for the first time since January 2016 and voted no-confidence in the GNA and its Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj. Pro-GNA HoR members complained they were “tricked” into attending after the meeting agenda changed abruptly. The no-confidence vote strikes a significant blow against the GNA and its partners, including the U.S., UN, and EU. The GNA’s lack of legitimacy may hamper international counterterrorism efforts in Libya.

Outlook: HoR leadership may attempt to hold a second no-confidence vote to force the reformation of the GNA’s cabinet in its favor. This action would provoke backlash from powerful factions from western Libya that support current GNA members.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA) is struggling to degrade militant groups’ explosive attack capabilities in order to take complete control of Benghazi. Both ISIS and the Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council (BRSC), an Islamist coalition with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, conducted IED attacks targeting LNA soldiers in the city’s south and west.

Outlook: Salafi-jihadi groups will probably maintain safe havens in western Benghazi despite LNA offensives.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS militants are using waves of explosive attacks to maximize casualties against the GNA-allied forces advancing into ISIS-held territory in Sirte. ISIS conducted nine SVBIED and three SVEST attacks in two days targeting GNA-allied forces. ISIS maintains a network that facilitates explosive attacks in Sirte. ISIS conducted attacks behind the front line, indicating GNA-allied forces are not capable of securing cleared territory. U.S. airstrikes destroyed four additional SVBIEDs. The U.S. has conducted 77 airstrikes on ISIS targets in Sirte since the beginning of the 30-day air campaign on August 1.

Outlook: ISIS will likely attempt to inflict high casualties on GNA forces to shape the narrative of its defeat in Sirte.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

9

| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

1 2

34

LIBYA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 16 AUG - 22 AUG

1) 16 AUG - 22 AUG: The U.S. conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS sniper positions and vehicles in Sirte.2) 17 AUG: ISIS militants detonated six SVBIEDs and three SVESTs targeting GNA-allied forces in Sirte.3) 22 AUG: ISIS militants detonated an IED that killed four LNA soldiers in Qanfouda, Benghazi.4) 20 AUG: Militants attempted to assassinate an LNA pilot with a sticky bomb in Tocra.

10

| ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)Algerian security forces dismantled terrorist cells and interdicted arms caches in eastern Algeria and in southern Algeria near the Malian border. AQIM maintains support zones in these regions. Outlook: AQIM may carry out small-scale attacks to defend its safe havens in Algeria. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Tunisia continues to crack down on cross-border smuggling. Authorities cited the threat of ISIS militants fleeing Sirte, the

group’s former Libyan stronghold, and attempting to enter Tunisia. Tunisian authorities dismantled an ISIS-linked cell in Ben Guerdane, the easternmost town in Tunisia and a hotbed for Salafi-jihadi activity. A political transition of power is also underway in Tunisia. Prospective Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Shahed released the plan for his proposed cabinet. Shahed retained the Minister of Defense and the Minister of the Interior in order to avoid disruptions in the security sector, which prevented major Salafi-jihadi attacks in Tunisia this summer.

Outlook: Tunisia will most likely continue to crack down on smuggling to counter Salafi-jihadi activity in the near term. Corruption and economic stagnation may drive Salafi-jihadi recruitment in the long term.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)French forces escalated security operations in reaction to continued instability in Mali. French troops are conducting search

operations and aerial reconnaissance in the Kidal region of northern Mali. Violence between the Self Defense Group of Imghad Tuareg and Allies (GATIA), a pro-government militia, and the Coordination for the Movement of Azawad (CMA), a coalition of Tuareg ex-separatist groups, threatens the fragile Algiers Accord, which ended formal hostilities in Mali in 2015. GATIA seized the town of Anefis in the Kidal region from the CMA and released a message claiming that it would capture all of Kidal within the next month. AQIM-affiliate Ansar al Din is likely responsible for six attacks in Mali this week, signaling a possible increase in operational tempo.

Outlook: GATIA may launch an offensive to retake Kidal after seizing surrounding towns this week.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

11

| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

4

2

1

3

MAGHREB SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 16 AUG - 22 AUG

1) 16 AUG: Moroccan security forces dismantled a Salafi-jihadi cell in Mograne, Morocco.2) 20 AUG: Tunisian security forces arrested seven suspected militants in Ben Guerdane, Tunisia.3) 22 AUG: The Algerian army destroyed a weapons cache in El Khroub, Algeria.4) 22 AUG: The Tunisian army conducted counterterrorism operations in Jebel Mghila, Tunisia.

12

| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL

1

3

4

2

SAHEL SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 16 AUG- 22 AUG

1) 18 AUG: A pro-government militia (GATIA) seized Anefis, Mali from a coalition of ex-separatist groups (CMA).2) 20 AUG: Ansar al Din conducted a raid on a Malian Army outpost in Mopti, Mali.3) 21 AUG: Ansar al Din fired rockets at a French military base in Tessalit, Mali.4) 22 AUG: French forces arrested a member of an ex-separatist group (MNLA) with suspected links to Salafi-jihadi organizations in Kidal, Mali.

13

ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14

Katherine Zimmermanresearch [email protected] (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran [email protected](202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram [email protected](202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran [email protected](202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

[email protected] (202) 888-6569