2017 03-07 ctp update and assessment

AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

March 7, 2017

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. The U.S. airstrike campaign in Yemen may disrupt AQAP in the near term, but the Yemeni civil war will preserve permissive conditions for the group.

2. Escalating competition over Libya’s oil resources will increase instability in Libya and set conditions for ISIS and al Qaeda to gain strength.

3. Al Qaeda affiliates formed a unified command structure that will facilitate their campaign to undermine security amid rising political discord in northern Mali.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Al Qaeda NetworkThe death of al Qaeda deputy leader Abu Khayr al Masri may provoke retaliatory attacks on Western targets. A U.S. drone strike killed al Masri in Idlib Province, Syria on February 26. Al Qaeda’s general command, AQAP, AQIM, and al Shabaab eulogized al Masri and called for attacks against the West.

Outlook: U.S. airstrikes targeting al Qaeda leadership will have no lasting impact on global al Qaeda operations.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesPakistan temporarily reopened border crossings to mitigate tensions with Afghanistan in the midst of a crackdown on Salafi-jihadi militants in the border region. Jamatul Ahrar, a TTP splinter group, may be responsible for an attack on Pakistani soldiers in Mohmand Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Jamatul Ahrar seeks to implement shari’a in the FATA. The Pakistani cabinet approved long-awaited governance reforms in the FATA that will require local security forces to implement tribal law.

Outlook: The tense Afghan-Pakistani relationship, as well as changing power structures in the FATA, may impact Pakistani government support for U.S. military operations.

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PoliticalThe Hadi government is building new relationships in pursuit of development aid. President Hadi spoke to Indian and Indonesian leadership to encourage investment in Yemen. Hadi’s oil minister is pursuing a relationship with French and Chinese corporations.

Outlook: Instability will prevent the Hadi government from addressing popular grievances.

SecurityAl Houthi-Saleh forces halted Hadi government forces’ attempt to seize Yemen’s western coast with an ambush campaign in Taiz governorate. Hadi government forces are targeting al Houthi-Saleh bases to the east but have not advanced meaningfully toward al Hudaydah.

Outlook:The Hadi government will seize al Houthi-Saleh bases in Taiz.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenFive consecutive days of U.S. airstrikes targeting AQAP have likely disrupted the group’s operational capabilities in Yemen. U.S. airstrikes may inadvertently benefit the al Houthi-Saleh bloc, which is fighting a ground campaign against AQAP in central Yemen.

Outlook: AQAP attacks in central Yemen will decrease in the near term.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 02-06 MAR: U.S. airstrikes targeted AQAP throughout central and southern Yemen.

2) 04 MAR: Al Houthi-Saleh forces fired artillery at popular resistance forces in Lawder district. 

3) 04 MAR: AQAP destroyed an al Houthi-Saleh outpost near Hamat Sarar village.

4) 05 MAR: AQAP attacked al Hizam forces in al Arqub.

5) 06 MAR: Hadhrami Elite Forces raided an AQAP weapons cache in Daw’an.

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PoliticalThe UAE recalled its ambassador from Somalia after the Somali Federal Government (SFG) appealed for Saudi Arabia to halt the construction of an Emirati base in Somaliland. Somaliland seeks recognition as a state. The SFG seeks to maintain its full sovereignty.

Outlook: Regional tensions will likely impede distribution of humanitarian assistance.

Security Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) operations targeted al Shabaab strongholds along the Kenyan-Somali border in an effort to disrupt al Shabaab and reverse a narrative of defeat.

Outlook: Kenya will increase operations in Somalia ahead of general elections in August.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab’s assassination campaign in Mogadishu is intended to demoralize the new administration and generate insecurity in the capital. Militants have targeted more than 10 government officials in 2017. Severe drought conditions also provide opportunities for al Shabaab to gain influence in devastated regions in central and southern Somalia.

Outlook: Shabaab will attempt to co-opt humanitarian aid and redistribute it to gain support.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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1) 28 FEB: KDF airstrikes targeted al Shabaab positions in Gedo region.

2) 02 MAR: KDF operation kills 57 al Shabaab militants in Lower Jubba region.

3) 02-03 MAR: Disease and starvation killed 110 people in Bay region.

4) 04 MAR: Al Shabaab militants ambushed AMISOM forces in Bay region.

5) 05 MAR: Al Shabaab militants ambushed AMISOM forces in Lower Shabelle region.

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PoliticalRussia is increasing its support for LNA commander Khalifa Haftar. Russia likely provided the LNA with at least one warplane. The head of the UN-backed GNA traveled to Moscow to discuss economic deals. Russia works with rival Libyan factions to advance its interests.

Outlook: Russian military support for Haftar will protract the conflict but will not resolve it.

SecurityThe Libyan civil war escalated after the BDB, an Islamist militia coalition, attacked LNA-controlled oil ports in northeastern Libya. The LNA counterattacked but the ports remain contested. Militias allied with a hardline Islamist political bloc broke in to the headquarters of Libya’s National Oil Corporation in conjunction with the BDB attack.

Outlook: Clashes over oil sites may grow into broader civil conflict in central Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaAl Qaeda may provide military support for ISIS in Libya, according to unconfirmed reports. Al Qaeda’s support network in Libya is much more extensive than that of ISIS.

Outlook: Access to al Qaeda’s network may accelerate ISIS’s regeneration in Libya.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

1) 03 MAR: The BDB attacked LNA-controlled oil ports at al Sidra and Ras Lanuf.

2) 03 MAR: Islamist militants broke into the NOC’s Tripoli headquarters.

3) 03-05: The LNA counterattacked at al Sidra and Ras Lanuf.

4) 04 MAR: The LNA recaptured an apartment complex from the BRSC in Benghazi.

5) 05 MAR: The LNA conducted airstrikes against the MSCD at Dahr al Homir.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebTunisia signed an agreement with Germany to expedite the return of 1,500 rejected asylum seekers to Tunisia. Tunisians protested against the government’s position on the re-entry of Tunisian foreign fighters in 2016.

Outlook: Tunisian citizens may protest against the return of illegal immigrants.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)Al Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel formed a new umbrella coalition called the Group for the Aid of Islam and Muslims (JNM). JNM is trying to create a power vacuum in northern Mali by undermining a peace agreement between the Malian government and former rebel groups.

Famine is weakening Boko Haram’s Barnawi faction. The faction, which has ties to both ISIS and AQIM, cannot capitalize on its local support base because of the famine’s severity. All factions of Boko Haram are unable to feed their fighters.

Outlook: JNM will attack joint patrols that include Malian soldiers and former rebels. Boko Haram’s operational tempo will remain low through the end of the dry season in April.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 02 MAR: Tunisian security forces dismantled a five-member militant cell in Sajanan, Bizerte governorate, Tunisia.

2) 02 MAR: Tunisian security forces arrested three members of al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia Tunisia in Gabes governorate, Tunisia.

3) 06 MAR: Algerian security forces killed two militants in Dellys, Boumerdes province, Algeria.

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL

1) 03 MAR: Boko Haram-Shekau suicide bombers destroyed three fuel tankers in Maiduguri, Nigeria.

2) 04 MAR: MAA and CJA militants besieged Malian government offices in Timbuktu.

3) 05 MAR: The Nigerian Army cleared a Boko Haram-Barnawi stronghold in Lake Chad.

4) 05 MAR: Ansar al Islam attacked a MAA-Malian army position near Kerboule, Burkina Faso.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch [email protected] (202) 888-6576

Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram [email protected](202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

[email protected] (202) 888-6569