Report to National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program February 8, 2012
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Report to National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation ProgramFebruary 8, 2012
MODELING TSUNAMI INUNDATION AND ASSESSING TSUNAMI HAZARDS FOR THE U.S.
EAST COAST
Presented by:
James T. KirbyCenter for Applied Coastal ResearchUniversity of Delaware
Stephan T. GrilliDepartment of Ocean EngineeringUniversity of Rhode Island
Project Personnel: University of Delaware:
James T. Kirby (PI, inundation and propagation modeling, project coordination)
John Callahan (Scientist, Del. Geological Soc., GIS/DEM database development, inundation map development)Fengyan Shi (Res. Asst. Prof, inundation and propagation modeling)Babak Tehranirad (Graduate Research Assistant, inundation modeling and
mapping))
University of Rhode Island:
Stephan Grilli (co-PI, coordination of URI tasks), Chris Baxter (Assoc. Prof., MC simulations of SMF sources). Jeff Harris (postdoc, integration of source simulations and propagation
modeling), Stephane Abadie (Visiting prof., Fulbright Scholar, Cumbre Vieja, SMF source
modeling), Teresa Kraus and Tamara Eggeling (Graduate Research Assistants, MC
simulations of SMF sources)
University of Delaware and University of Rhode Island2010-2011 (FY10-11) Accomplishments $393,855 (Total Funding Received, 8/1/10-7/31/12)
Subtasks 1.1-1.3• Literature Review• MC modeling of East Coast
SMF• Simulation of co-seismic
sources and flank collapse of Cumbre Vieja Volcano using 3D multi-fluid VOF model
Completion• 100% - Report published• 75% - Final evaluation of sources underway• 100%
University of Delaware and University of Rhode Island2010-2011 (FY10-11) Accomplishments $393,855 (Total Funding Received, 8/1/10-7/31/12)
Milestones for Tasks 1.4 - 1.5• Inundation modeling for
high risk East Coast communities
• Construct inundation maps for modeled East Coast communities
Completion• 20% - Work limited to DEM
and GIS development
• 20% -
• Questions about appropriateness of SMF events from a geological standpoint
• Estimated sources are being examined by USGS personnel working with the UD/URI team.
• This effort is expected to be completed (summer)
• Questions about whether it is appropriate to use probabilistic results for slides, or whether whether worst-case scenarios based on historical input should form the basis of results for mapping.
• UD/URI feel that there should be input from the NTHMP program on this question.
• Guidance on this question could be improved after the planned workshop on probabilistic hazard analysis. (enough guidance to proceed obtained during MMS meeting)
Issues Encountered: Task 1.2
Both of these situations lead to Task 1.2 extending into FY12, beyond the planned completion in the original proposal
Task 1.1: Literature review established large selection of potential sources
Computational domains for FUNWAVE propagation modeling
• Task 1.3: An Overview of Distant Sources I: Flank collapse of Cumbre Vieja Volcano using 3D multi-fluid VOF model
2D slope stability computations (with 2 different models) on various cross sections. Geotechnical parameters are progressively reduced (mimicking hydrothermal alteration) until unstable state.
3D slide volumes are inferred using a 3D ellipsoid shape, based on the 2D failure contours and geological considerations for lateral extent.
Slide volumes range from 40 to 70 km3, depending on the scenario.
[Vizualisation of the quasi elliptic failure contour (Drucker-Prager failure criterion) calculated with the finite element code ADELI]
Set-up of 3D tsunami generation model (THETIS)
Geometry of THETIS domainNested within larger scale domain for propagation model
3-D view of THETIS domain
CVV impact on East Coast: New England
CVV impact on East Coast: Mid-Atlantic
CVV impact on East Coast: South-East(Georgia – South Carolina)
Overview of Distant Sources II: Caribbean subduction zone tsunamigenic earthquakes
Summary• Historical examples include 1867
(7.7 near US Virgin Islands); 1918 (7.3 from PR); 2010 (7.0 from PR)
• Tsunami risk studied by many (e.g., Zahibo and Pelinovsky 2001)
• NOAA Forecast Source Database (Gica et al. 2008) modeled series of potential sources
• Potential high risk to particular communities (e.g., S. Carolina) SIFT sources (Gica et al 2008) used in CSZ
simulation
Puerto Rico trench example
Distribution of maximum surface displacements in Mid-Atlantic due to CSZ simulations
• Location: 19.674° N 65.806° W• Direction: 92°• Dip:
165°• Rake:
50°• Magnitude: 9.0• Slip:
1.0 m• Depth: 40 km• Length: 600 km• Width: 150 km• Shear modulus: 4.2x1010 kg/m s2
• Radius: 200 km• Depth of slip: 400 m• Water depth: 7000 m
Overview of distant sources III: Azores-Gibraltar convergence zone
Summary• Region best known for 1755
Lisbon earthquake (8.5-9.0 magnitude; 100,000 deaths)
• Earthquake extensively studied (e.g., Johston 1996; Baptista et al. 1998; Gutscher et al. 2006; Grandin et al. 2007)
• Source of 1755 quake not known; Barkan et al. 2009 simulated possibilities based on far-field effect
• Not included in NOAA Forecast Source Database Sources considered for East
Coast Inundation Studies
Azores-Gibraltar convergence zone example
Lisbon 1755-like source
• Location: 36.015° N 11.467° W• Direction: 345°• Dip: 40°• Rake: 90°• Magnitude: 9.0• Slip: 13.1 m• Depth: 30 km• Length: 200 km• Width: 80 km• Shear modulus: 6.5x1010 kg/m s2
• Radius:300 km• Depth of slip: 40 km• Water depth: 4709 m
Status of Task 1.2: Probabilistic analysis of coastal hazards associated with submarine mass failures (SMF)Summary• Past tsunamis caused by Grand
Banks (1929) and Currituck (24-50,000 years ago)
• 33% of US East Coast continental slope covered by landslide scars and deposits (Twichell et al. 2009)
• Large number of submarine mass failures have been analyzed using Monte Carlo analysis in addition to historical examples
Grand Banks source
[Continental Margin Mapping
(CONMAP) sediments grain size distribution for the United
States East Coast Continental
Margin]
• Compiling surficial sediment data for the study area and enter into the GIS
Basis of MC analysis
[Idealized coastline and transects for the upper east coast of the U.S., Grilli et al 2009]
• Generation of cross-shelf/slope transects for slope stability analyses
• [Tsunami propagation picked within an angular spread from the failed transect direction, with insert of Gaussian distribution of coastal runup (Grilli et al., 2009)].
• Simplified tsunami propagation, runup, inundation in MC model => source selection for actual propagation with FUNWAVE
• Simplified coastline with names of corresponding coastal states, ranges of indices of studied coastal points, numbered N-S (Baxter et al., 2011; Krauss, 2011). Points 1-899 correspond to the upper East Coast already studied in Grilli et al. (2009).
Right panel: MC estimates of runups for Mid-Atlantic.
Left panel: SMF transects (blue lines) used in MC analysis and location and size of underwater landslides causing 500 year runup (red ellipses).
Events identified in MC analysis and chosen for use in inundation mapping: Ongoing Task 1.2 evaluation
Tsunami elevation computed with NHWAVE (up to 15 mins.) and FUNWAVE-TVD, in a 500 m regional grid, for the first SMF source. (a) instantaneous
elevation after 75 mins of propagation; (b) maximum envelope of elevation
University of Delaware and University of Rhode IslandFY 12 Funding Plan
Task (Activity) Name NTHMP Performance Metric(s) (from Strategic Plan) Supported
Amount of Requested Funds
Task 1.2: Probabilistic analysis of coastal hazards associated with submarine mass failures
Successful execution of NTHMP tsunami mapping, modeling, mitigation, planning and education efforts; Prioritize inundation map development
$0$25,000
Task 1.3: Simulation of transoceanic tsunamis from co-seismic and other relevant sources
Successful execution of NTHMP tsunami mapping, modeling, mitigation, planning and education efforts
$60,000$35,000
Task 1.4: Inundation modeling for high risk East Coast communities
Successful execution of NTHMP tsunami mapping, modeling, mitigation, planning and education efforts
$79,854
Task 1.5: Construct inundation maps for modeled east Coast communities
Tsunami inundation maps that support informd decision making
$60,000
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