eMetrics London - The AB Testing Hype Cycle

The AB Testing Hype CycleEscaping the Trough of Useless Testing

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The Gartner Hype Cycle ™

1 Tool Installed

2 Stupid testing

3

4Peak of Stupidity

5 ROI questioned

6 Statistics debunked

7 Faith crisis

8The Trough of Testing

Slide of

moodiness

------>

Scaled upStupidity

Slop

e of

St

upid

ity

------

>

9 Where, How, Why

10 Data science

11 Testing to learn

12

Innovation Testing

Hacking

Business

Futures

------>

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#fail

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108M

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44.9M

Oppan Gangnam Style!

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24.1M

You been naughty again?

1. Get Analytics Health Checked

2. Test in the right place3. Understand Cross

Device4. Do your Research5. Prioritise your testing

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6. Perform Pre Flight Checks

7. Know how long to test8. Have a good reason to

test9. Learn from your tests10. Burn down the silos

10 Shortcuts to Testing Success

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1. Your Analytics Setup is Broken

• Nearly 100 Sites in 3 years• 95% were broken, often

badly• Trust in data was missing• Management made bad

calls• Nobody checked the tills• Calibrate from the basics

up!@OptimiseOrD

ie

• What sales do we capture?• What categories?• What about refunds, lunch

money, gift certificates?• How do we monitor fraud?• Do we check it adds up?• Where does this data go?

1. What about MY clients?

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1. Bulls***t flows upwards!Cool BS Dashboard

BS reports

BS metrics

BS Collectio

n

BS metrics

BS Collectio

n

BS metrics

BS Collectio

n

BS metrics

BS Collectio

n TILLS

DEPT

STORE

DIVISION

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• Review takes 1-3 days• Prioritise the issues• Fix directly with developers• Integrate with the Testing Tool1

Get an Analytics Health Check

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2. You Test in the Wrong Place

2. Let’s do Random Testing

Let’s try the

homepage

I’ve got targets to

hit!

I hate this job

Let’s test button

colours!

Has lots of opinions but no

data

Spends too much time on

Twitter

Driven by Ego and Competitors

Wishes he cared about testing

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“STOP copying your competitors

They may not know what the f*** they are doing either” Peep Laja, ConversionXL

1. Let’s do Random Testing

Best Practice Testing?• Your customers are not the same• Your site is not the same• Your advertising and traffic are not the

same• Your UX is not the same• Your X-Device Mix is not the same• You have no idea of the data

• Use them to inform or suggest approaches• Use them for ideas• Do not use them as a playbook• It will make you very unhappy

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2. Modelling - Intent

All traffic

HearingSight

StoreOther

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Goal

Page Page

Page

Page

Hearing

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2. Modelling – Multiple Endings

All traffic

InfluenceIntent

Influence

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3Goal

Page Page

Page

Page

Entry Page

1234

1234

1234

2. Modelling – Horizontal Funnels

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• Do some Analytics modelling• Understand the shedding of

layers• Narrow your focus and scope• Bank better gains earlier in time

2Test in the Right Places

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3. Responsive solves everything, right?

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Vs.

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1. Motorola Hardware Menu Button2. MS Word Bullet Button3. Android Holo Composition Icon4. Android Context Action Bar Overflow (top right on Android

devices)

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Increase in revenue of > $200,000 per annum!

bit.ly/hamburgertest

Mystery Meats of Mobile

BURGER SHISH DONER

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• Do you really know your mix?• Most people undercount

Android!• What iPhone models visit?• How big is tablet traffic?• What screen sizes do they have?

• Find out BEFORE you design tests

• Check BEFORE you launch tests

• Use Google Analytics to find out• 3 reports to rule them all

https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=lpVf8LveSqyd3mdsHjdfzQhttps://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=fmUzp_gzRIy7LnvZJjCDOQhttps://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=y7sYIXDhQrmswHAiNo8iLA

3. Our customers use iPhones, right?

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3. What iPhone Models do we see?

Screen Resolution320 x 480 = iPhone 4/4S 320 x 568 = iPhone 5/5S 375 x 667 = iPhone 6 414 x 736 = iPhone 6+

https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=lpVf8LveSqyd3mdsHjdfzQhttps://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=fmUzp_gzRIy7LnvZJjCDOQhttps://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=y7sYIXDhQrmswHAiNo8iLA

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• Desktop Browsers & versions• Tablet Models• Mobile Device Models• Screen Resolutions3

Figure Out the Device Mix for Testing

Is there anything holding you back from doing conversion research?

1. Time

2. Client/Company Buy-In

3. Budget

4. Don’t know where to start

4. You don’t do any Research before testing?

@ContentVerve

37

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4. If you have 4 hoursPLUS

• Snap interviews (Sales, Customer Services, Tech Support)

• Run a quick poll or survey (See my tools slides)

Less Bullshit!

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4. 1 Hour Page Analytics

Influence Pages

Entry PointsLanding Pages

Device MixCustomer

MixTraffic Mix

FlowIntent

Marketing -> Site flow

Page or Process

Next StepsAbandonm

entExitsMix of

abandonment

Flow

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4. 1 Hour Landing Page Analytics• How old are the visitors?

https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=hab8Ta93SCCffUpjefjtNQ

• What are the key metrics like (e.g. bounce rate, conversion)?https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=hab8Ta93SCCffUpjefjtNQ

• What is the goal or ecommerce conversion through this page?https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=hab8Ta93SCCffUpjefjtNQ

• What channel traffic comes to the page?https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=Kjb9q8M4QN-fsPe8dOGaig

• What is the mix of tablet / mobile / desktop to the page?https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=wLMUWs8eTIa3_mmQHOtPkw

• What are the resolutions of devices?https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=wLMUWs8eTIa3_mmQHOtPkw

• How slow are the landing pages? https://www.google.com/analytics/web/template?uid=AavFsgMoRkucYYKnxlB76Q

• What are the pages right after the landing page? (Use a landing page report and choose the ‘Entrance Paths’ to show next pages.)

• What is the flow like from this page? (Use the Behaviour Flow Report)

• What does it look like on the top devices? (Use real devices + Appthwack.com, Crossbrowsertesting.com or Deviceanywhere.com)

AdSERP

BannerEmail

CampaignAff

Referrer

Landing Page

TemplateGoal

ReachedInteraction

Step or Layer

PPCOrganicDisplayEmailSocial

Desktop - Mobile - Tablet

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4. If you have 2 hours

• Form Analytics data • Scroll or Click Maps• Session Recording Videos (Hotjar, Decibel Insight,

Yandex)• Make a horizontal funnel from the landing page

• Check the:– Marketing Creatives / SERP fully– Look at Landing page ZERO!

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4. If you have 4 hours• Set up a poll or survey (See my tools slides)• Set up an exit (bail) survey• Friends, Family, New Employee user testing• Guerrilla user testing• Snap Interviews – 5-10 minutes:• Customer Services, Sales team (if applicable) then

Customers • 5 Second Test• Article is here : bit.ly/conversiondeadline

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• Lean Analytics• UX Research• Interviewing• Surveys and Polls4

No Excuses – Do Your Research

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5. You don’t Prioritise your TestsScoring can be cost, time to market, resource, risk, political complexity

• Cost 1-10 Higher is cheaper• Time 1-10 Higher is shorter• Opportunity 1-10 Higher is greater

Score = Cost * Time * Opportunity

• For financial institutions, risk should be a factor• Want to build your own? – ask me!

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5. Opportunity vs. Cost

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Cheap (high is better)

Opportunity

MONEY!

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5. Make a Money Model

Test Description Metric 2% lift 5% lift 10% lift EstimateProduct page Simplification Basket adds 200,000 500,000 1,000,000 500,000

Register new Improve onboarding New register funnel ratio 25,000 62,500 125,000 250,000

IE8 bugs in cart Fix key broken stuff IE8 Conversion 80,000 200,000 400,000 200,000

Category list page Get product higher User Category -> Product 500,000 1,250,000 2,500,000 1,250,000

Payment Page New card handling User Payment -> Thank you 60,000 150,000 300,000 300,000

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• Score all Test Targets• Use Cost vs. Opportunity

minimum• Check it works!• Make a Money Model

5Prioritise your Testing Targets

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6. You Don’t Test Before Launch• Dirty secret of AB testing?• People break their tests all the time!• Most people don’t notice

Why?

• Because developers can break them very easily• What if your AB test was broken on iPhones?• If you didn’t know, would your results be valid?

• About 40% of my tests fail basic QA

Browser Checkswww.crossbrowsertesting.com

www.browserstack.comwww.spoon.netwww.saucelabs.com

Mobile & Tabletwww.appthwack.com

www.deviceanywhere.comwww.opendevicelab.com

Article & Info bit.ly/devicetesting

6. Here is my £80M testing rig!

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• Check Every Test Works• Browsers and Devices• Check Analytics records

correctly6Perform Pre Flight Checks

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7. You Stop When you Hit 95% Confidence

The 95% Stopping Problem

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• Many people use 95, 99% ‘confidence’ to stop

• This value is unreliable and moves around• Nearly all my tests reach significance

before they are actually ready• You can hit 95% early in a test (18

minutes!)• If you stop, it could be a false result• Read this Nature article : bit.ly/1dwk0if• Optimizely and VWO have updated their

tools• This 95% thingy – must be LAST on your

stop list

The 95% Stopping Problem

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4After 200 observations Insignificant Insignificant Significant! Significant!

After 500 observations Insignificant Significant! Insignificant Significant!

End of experiment Insignificant Significant! Insignificant Significant!

“You should know that stopping a test once it’s significant is deadly sin number 1 in A/B testing land. 77% of A/A tests (testing the same thing as A and B) will reach significance at a certain point.”Ton Wesseling, Online Dialogue

• TWO BUSINESS CYCLES minimum (week/month)• 1 PURCHASE CYCLE minimum (or most of one)• 250 CONVERSIONS minimum per creative• 350, 500, more if creative response is similar• FULL WEEKS/CYCLES never part of one

• KNOW what marketing, competitors and cycles are doing• RUN a test length calculator - bit.ly/XqCxuu• SET your test run time , RUN IT, STOP IT, ANALYSE IT

• ONLY RUN LONGER if sample is smaller than expected• DON’T RUN LONGER just because the test isn’t giving the

result you want!@OptimiseOrD

ie

7. Know How Long to Test for…

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• Most critical mistake• Use a test calculator• Full business cycles, 2 minimum• Don’t waste time hoping7

Know How Long to Test for

Insight - Inputs

#FAILCompetitor copying

Guessing

Dice rolling

An article the CEO read

Competitor change

PanicEgo

OpinionCherished notionsMarketing whimsCosmic raysNot ‘on brand’ enough

IT inflexibility

Internal company needs

Some dumbass consultant

Shiny feature blindness

Knee jerk reactons

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8. So you think you have a Hypothesis?

Insight - Inputs

InsightSegmentation

Surveys

Sales and Call Centre

Session Replay

Social analytics

Customer contactEye tracking

Usability testingForms analyticsSearch analyticsVoice of Customer

Market research

A/B and MVT testing

Big & unstructured data

Web analytics

Competitor evals

Customer services

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8. So you think you have a Hypothesis?

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1. Because we saw (data/feedback)2. We expect that (change) will

cause (impact)3. We’ll measure this using (data metric)

bit.ly/hyp_kit

8. Use this to deflect stupid testing!

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1. Because we saw (an angry email from the CEO)

2. We expect that (changing button colours) will cause (the office to cool down for a day)

3. We’ll measure this using (some metric we pluck out of the air – whatever, man) bit.ly/hyp_kit

8. Let’s try a real one

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• Don’t do Ego driven testing• Use the Hypothesis Kit!8

Get a Proper Hypothesis Going

bit.ly/hyp_kit

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9. Our Testing teaches us Nothing!

• Either your research or hypothesis is weak• Work back from the outcome!

What if A won – what would that tell us?What if A failed – what would that tell us?

• What is the value to the business in finding out the answer?

• Is the finding actionable widely and deeply?• Testing isn’t about lifts – it’s about learning

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9. Our Testing teaches us Nothing!

“You are trying to run a bundle of tests, whose expected additional information will give you the highest return.”Matt Gershoff, CEO, Conductrics.com

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• Do your research• Form a solid hypothesis• Work back from the outcomes• Learning useful stuff = huge lifts9

Design Tests for Maximum Learning

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10. Burn Down the Silos• Non agile, non iterative design• Silos work on product

separately• No ‘One Team’ per

product/theme • Large teams, unwieldy

coordination• Pass the product around• More PMs and BAs than a

conference• Endless sucking signoff• AB testing done the same way!

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10. FT Example• Small teams (6-15) with direct access to

publish• Ability to set and get metrics data directly• Tools, Autonomy, Lack of interference• No Project Managers or Business Analysts

• Business defines ‘outcomes’ – teams deliver• No long signoff chain• No pesky meddling fools• 18 Month projects over budget?

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10. FT Example• 100s of releases a day!• MVP approach• Launch as alpha, beta,

pilot, phased rollout• Like getting in a

shower• Read more at

labs.ft.com

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10. Positive Attributes

• Rapid, Iterative, User Centred & Agile Design. No Silos.

• Small empowered autonomous teams

• Polymaths and Overlap• Toolkit & Analytics investment• Persuasive copywriting &

Psychology• Great Testing & Optimisation

Tools

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• Agile, Lean, Iterative x silo teams

• Ability to get and set metrics• Autonomy, Control, Velocity• Iterative MVP approach• Work on outcomes, not features

10Burn Down the Silos!

71

 “If you think of technology as something that’s spreading like a sort of fractal stain, almost every point on the edge represents an interesting problem.”Paul Graham

72Time

ROI

Rumsfeldian Space• What if we changed our prices?• What if we gave away less for free?• What if we took this away?• What about 3 packages, not 5?• What are these potential futures I can

take?• How can I know before I spend money?

• McDonalds Hipster Test Store

bit.ly/1TiURi7

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Congratulations!

Today you’re the lucky winner of our random awards programme.

You get all these extra features for free, on

us.

Enjoy!

Innovation Testing

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2004 Headspace

What I thought I knew in 2004

Reality

2015 Headspace

What I KNOW I know

Me, on a good day

WE’RE ALL WINGING IT

Guessaholics Anonymous

1 Tool Installed

2 Stupid testing

3

4Peak of Stupidity

5 ROI questioned

6 Statistics debunked

7 Faith crisis

8The Trough of Testing

Slide of

moodiness

------>

Scaled upStupidity

Slop

e of

St

upid

ity

------

>

9 Where, How, Why

10 Data science

11 Testing to learn

12

Innovation Testing

Hacking

Business

Futures

------>

@OptimiseOrDie

Thank You!

Email me sullivac@gmail.comSlides http://bit.ly/em2015Linkedin linkd.in/pvrg14