Campaigns & Elections
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By Loren Miller
“(Supporter) Governor, you have the vote of every thinking person.
(Stevenson) That’s not enough madam,We need a majority”
Election Fraud ?
TYPES OF BALLOTS• Australian Ballot: a secret ballot that is prepared, distributed
and counted by the government; used in all elections since 1888.
– This replaced oral voting or using different colored ballots prepared by the political parties.
• Office-Block Ballot: all candidates for the same office are grouped under the title of that office. Parties don’t like this as it emphasizes the office and not the party and also discourages straight-party voting.
TYPES OF BALLOTS• Party Column Ballot: all of a party’s candidates are arranged in
one column under the party label and symbol. This encourages straight-party voting.
• Voting By Mail: used for absentee ballots; Oregon uses this exclusively; they do not have any polling places.
THE NOMINATION PROCESS1. Defining Possible Candidates and Leading
Contenders (The Invisible Primary)
2. The Primaries and Delegate Selection(Initial Contests and Mist Clearing)
3. The Convention
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
Defining Possible Candidates and Leading Contenders (Testing the Waters)“No one wants to back a loser”
• Key Money Raisers (“Fat Cats”)• Hollywood Influentials
• Media Commentary• Party Influentials• Interest Groups
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
Testing the Waters in 2012:Mitt RomneyRick SantorumNewt GingrichRon PaulRick PerryMichelle BachmannHerman CainDonald Trump
Invisible Primary, 2011
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The Primaries and Delegate SelectionPrimaries and Caucus
• Importance of primaries:• In 1912 12 Democratic 13 Republican• In 1980 31 Democratic 35
Republican• In 2012 38 Democratic 39 Republican
PRIMARIES• Closed Primary: only declared members of the party can vote
in the party’s primary.
• Open Primary: any voter can vote in either party’s primary without declaring a party affiliation.
• Blanket Primary: a voter can vote for candidates of more than one party.
• Run-Off Primary: if no candidate receives a majority of votes, the top two must compete in another primary.
• “Top Two” Primary: all candidates appear on the same ballot and the top two run in the general election.
CAUCUSES• A party meeting held where voters can select
delegates to attend a convention.
– In Texas, the night of the primary the parties hold conventions. Delegates are selected at the precinct convention to attend the county or district convention and this convention would select delegates to attend the state convention where delegates are selected for the national convention.
When States Select Delegates
JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay June
20042000 2008 2012*
*Many states had their selection processdelayed because of redistricting challenges
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The Primaries and Delegate SelectionPrimaries and Caucus
• Until 1968• delegates selected by party leaders• all states are important• party dominated
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The Primaries and Delegate SelectionPrimaries and Caucus
• Since 1968• candidate dominated• most delegates selected by primaries• early states are important• closed conventions
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The ConventionPurpose
2016: R: Cleveland
D: Philadelphia
• Role of the media • Cross-section of the American public?• Likelihood of deadlock? • Post-convention “surge”
DECLINING COVERAGE
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
020406080
100120140160180200
Series 1
Coverage on NBC, ABC and CBS
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2008 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Democratic Nom-inee
Republican Nom-inee
Week of the year that the
candidate won a majority of
delegates
THE ELECTION
19681972
19761980
19841988
19921996
20000
1020304050607080
Before Primaries Before Labor Day A Majority of American Voters Decide How to Vote Before the Fall Campaign Begins. Many decide even
before the primaries.
THE ELECTIONVoters who supported Obama (in %)
Voters who supported Romney (in %)
2012 Election
927
45
Column1
DemocratRepublicanIndependent
8
93
50
Column1
THE MONEY FACTOR
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
80 100 100 200 195 250 350710
1400
1990
In Millions
THE MONEY FACTOR
400
333
289
92
Under $200More Than $200Democratic PartySuper PACs
110
379
351
225
Under $200MoreThan $200Republican PartySuper PACs
Obama Romney
THE MONEY FACTORPresidential candidates may receive public
funding-- if you receive public funding, then you are limited as to the amount that you can spend
THE MONEY FACTORThe Federal Election Commission limits the
maximum individual contribution to federal candidates-- in 2008 the maximum was $2,300
-- every year this figure is adjusted for inflation -- small donors typically make up a small proportion
of the money raised by a candidate (less than 20%)
-- there are no limits for a candidate to “self-finance” their campaign
THE MONEY FACTOR527s: (from a section of the IRS Code)
-- organizations (individuals and PACs) may finance issue ads that advocate a particular policy but may not endorse a specific candidate
-- there is no limit to the size of contributions to these groups
THE MONEY FACTORPolitical Action Committees (PACs):
-- corporations and unions as well as trade and professional groups form PACs
-- in 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that corporations and unions were “people” and that there could
be no limit on the amount of money that they could spend to “advocate or electioneering”
Citizens United v. FEC
Super Pac DonorsRepublican Donors: 1. 10 m. Sheldon Adelson (Casino owner) 2. 10 m. Miriam Adelson 3. 10 m. Bob Perry (Houston homebuilder) 4. 2.8 m. Oxbow Carbon LLC (oil and gas [Koch]) 5. 2.3 m. Harold Simmons (Dallas billionaire) 6. 2.2 m. Julian Robertson (hedge fund company)
Democratic Donors: 1. 3.5 m. Fred Eychaner (Chicago media mogul) 2. 3.5 m. James Simons (hedge fund company 3. 3.0 m. Jeffrey Katzenburg (Dreamworks Animation) 4. 2.0 m. Pipefitters Union 5. 2.0 m. Irwin Jacobs (Qualcomm) 6. 2.0 m. Jon Stryker (Gay rights activist)
Super Pac FundsRestore our Future Con-Romney 96.7mAmerican Crossroads Con 56.8mPriorities USA Action Lib-Obama 35.6mWinning our Future Con-Gingrich 23.9mClub for Growth Con 13.8mAmerican Bridge Lib 8.6mRed, White & Blue Con-Santorum 8.3mAFL-CIO Lib 7.1mCongressional Leadership Con 6.5mMake Us Great Again Con-Perry 5.6m
THE ELECTION
THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College
Why??
How do we choose a president without political parties (they were frowned upon), without
national campaigns (the office seeks the person rather than the person seeks the office), and without upsetting the balance between the executive and legislative branches and the
national and state governments?
THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College
Why??
Have Congress choose the president:This would lead to hard feelings among members of Congress and would lead to unsightly political bargaining
Have the state legislatures choose the president:This would lead to an erosion of federal authority as the president would be too beholding to certain states
Have the president elected by direct popular vote:People would not be aware of a candidate who was not local and would vote for their “favorite son” and no person would emerge with a popular majority.
Finally, the “Committee of Eleven” proposed an indirect election of the president through a College of Electors.
THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College
The Electoral College was expected to be composed of “free electors” who could vote for anyone. The person who came in first would become president and the runner-up would be vice-president.
If nobody had a majority of votes, then the election would go into the House. Our Founding Fathers expected that almost all elections would be determined in the House of Representatives as they expected many candidates to receive electoral votes.
This worked well until the formation of political parties. By 1796, the electors were no longer “free electors” but had become “partisan electors.”
THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College
Each state has the number of electors equal to the number of their members in the House and the Senate
H + S = # of Electors
(Texas) 36 + 2 = 38 Electors(USA) 435 + 100 + 3 (DC) = 538 Electors
A majority of 538 (270) is needed to win
THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College
• The objective is to obtain 270 electoral votes
• Instead of 1 presidential election, we have 51 separate presidential elections
• To win Texas’s electoral vote, the candidate must obtain a plurality of popular votes in the state
• So where does a candidate campaign?? • In 2004, 82% of party resources were spent in only 9 states.
The Battleground States2012
New Hampshire (4)Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)Ohio (18)Iowa (6)
Colorado (9)Nevada (6)Florida (29)
Wisconsin (10)(110)
http://www.270towin.com
The Battleground States2012
96% of the spending on television ads between April 11th and November 6th by presidential campaigns and allied groups went to the battleground states.
99% of the campaign stops by the presidential or vice-presidential candidates were in the battleground states.
How Presidents and Vice Presidents are Chosen
Acetate P–2
POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE
Election Year
President Winner’s Electoral Vote
Winner’s Popular Vote
1956 Eisenhower 86.1 57.4
1960 Kennedy 58.0 49.7
1964 LB Johnson 90.3 61.6
1968 Nixon 55.9 43.4
1972 Nixon 96.7 60.7
1976 Carter 55.2 50.1
POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE
Election Year
President Winner’s Electoral Vote
Winner’s Popular Vote
1980 Reagan 90.9 50.7
1984 Reagan 97.4 59.8
1988 Bush 79.0 53.4
1992 Clinton 68.8 43.2
1996 Clinton 70.4 49.2
2000 GW Bush 50.1 49.8
POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE
Election Year
President Winner’s Electoral Vote
Winner’s Popular Vote
2004 GW Bush 53.2 51.2
2008 Obama 67.8 53.3
2012 Obama 61.7 52.5
Robin Williams
THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College
The Electoral College has reversed the outcome three times:1876 (Hayes v. Tilden), 1888 (Harrison v. Cleveland), 2000 (Bush v. Gore).
The House of Representatives has decided two elections:1800 (Jefferson v. Burr), 1824 (Adams v. Jackson v. Clay)
In 18 of 56 presidential elections (Washington to Obama), the winning candidate did not have a majority of popular votes.
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGEThe Electoral College violates democratic principles:
State Electoral Votes Population +/- Represented
CA 55 37.34m -15.4% TX 38 25.27m -13.6%
NY 29 19.42m -14.2%FL 29 18.90m -11.8%IL 20 12.86m -10.7%
WY 3 0.57m +203.4%DC 3 0.60m +186.5%VT 3 0.63m +173.5%ND 3 0.68m +155.1%AK 3 0.72m +138.9%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE REFORMS
• Direct Popular Vote
• Proportional Voting
• District Plan
DISTRICT PLAN
R = 100D = 85
R = 110D = 95
R = 75D = 110
3 Districts = 5 Electoral Votes
Used in Maine and Nebraska
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESSelect a Theme:
-- most campaign themes are not issue oriented, but are focused on a candidates’ personal qualities or image
-- “Change we can believe in”-- “Stay the course”-- “Fights for the taxpayer”-- “Cares about you”
-- Themes must be stated in concise and catchy sound bites
JibJab
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESNegative Campaigning:
-- a media campaign seeks to define the opponent in negative terms
-- the first negative ad was made by Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and paints his opponent, Barry Goldwater, as an irresponsible person who is likely to use nuclear
weapons in Vietnam (Daisy Girl)-- John Kerry, a decorated veteran of the Vietnam
conflict (one Silver Star, a Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts) was accused of supplying aid and comfort to the North Vietnamese by speaking about American atrocities committed during the war (Swift Boat)
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESNegative Campaigning:
)1. Advertise early if you have the money.
2. Go negative early, often, and right through election day.
3. Appeal to the heart and gut, rather than to the head.
4. Define your opponent to the voters before he or she can define him/herself or you.
5. If attacked, hit back harder.
6. It’s easier to give voters a negative impression of your opponent than it is to improve their image of you.
Going Negative
Campaign Ads: Presidential
2000 2004 2008 20120
10
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50
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30
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62
30
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2523
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25 25
15
Negative Contrast Positive
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESNews Management:
-- News coverage of the candidate is more credible than paid advertisements
-- Campaigns are planned to get the maximum favorable “free” exposure on the evening news-- So each day a candidate must do something newsworthyand provide good photo ops
Law Enforcement Military Education
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESPaid Advertising:
-- paid spots on television are usually only 15 or 30 seconds long-- television time is expensive-- little attention is paid to issues; instead the ads focus
on emotions
Biographical Backfire Backfire Commander in Chief Dole Kerry Obama Bush/Quayle
IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNINGIs a good campaign the key to victory?
-- probably not
What is the purpose of a campaign?-- reinforce voters’ preferences for candidates-- activate voters to contribute money or ring doorbells-- convert voters to your candidate
IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNINGMost people pay little attention to campaigns
and those who do have selective perception
Long-term factors, like party identification, influence voting behavior regardless of the campaign
Incumbents start with a substantial advantage in terms of name recognition and a track record
Voter TurnoutIn Texas, turnout is higher in presidential elections than in nonpresidential elections—this follows the national trend.
The voter turnout in Texas falls well below the national average. Why?
Long ballot and lack of information about candidates and issues
Voter fatigue (too many elections)Negative campaigningLow levels of educational attainmentLow per capita incomeHigh rate of povertyYoung populationLittle party competition
Texas Turnout
Voter Turnout By State in 2012(as % of Voting Eligible Population)
Highest Turnout Lowest Turnout
1. Minnesota 76.1% 41. Kentucky 55.9%2. Wisconsin** 73.2% 42. New Mexico 54.9%3. Colorado** 71.1% 43. New York 53.6%4. New Hampshire** 70.9% 44. Arizona 53.3%5. Iowa** 70.2% 45. Tennessee 52.6%6. Maine 69.2% 46. Arkansas 51.0%7. Virginia** 66.9% 47. Texas 50.1%8. Maryland 66.8% 48. Oklahoma 49.6%9. Massachusetts 66.6% 49. West Virginia 46.8%10. Michigan 65.3% 50. Hawaii 44.5%
Five of the ten states with the highest turnout have some form of election day registration.Five of the ten states with the highest turnout were swing states.**
Average turnout in the 10 swing states was 7.2% higher than in the non-swing states.Five of the lowest turnout states are considered solidly Democratic or solidly Republican and
have more burdensome registration requirements.
Early VotingThirty-two states have some form of early voting.
In Texas, early voting begins two weeks prior to the election and ends four days before the election.
Early Voting (Texas):2004 23%2008 31%2012 35%
Older voters prefer to vote early, while younger persons prefer to vote in-person on election day.
Election Day RegistrationElection day registration allows voters to register or update their registration at the polls on Election Day and then cast a regular ballot.
States with EDR have consistently higher voter participation rates
In 2012, states with EDR had an average turnoutof 71.3%; this was 12.5% higher than theturnout in states without EDR.
All EDR states had voter turnout above the national average.
Election Day RegistrationStates that allow election day registration:
Colorado 2013California 2016Connecticut 2012Hawaii 2018Idaho 1994Illinois 2014Iowa 2007Maine 1973Minnesota 1974Montana 2005New Hampshire 1996Vermont 2015Wisconsin 1975Wyoming 1994
THE CHANGING AMERICAN VOTER(%)
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 20320
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Other non-WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American
ELIGIBILITY AND TURNOUT(%)
1828 1852 1876 1892 1924 1948 1972 20000
102030405060708090
100
EligibleTurnout
Who Voted in 2012
Gender Race Age Party Income0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
53F
72W
19-29
38D
≤ 20K
47M
13B
2730-44
32R
2130-50
10H
3845-64
29I
≥ 50
1665+
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