Campaigns & Elections

By Loren Miller

“(Supporter) Governor, you have the vote of every thinking person.

(Stevenson) That’s not enough madam,We need a majority”

Election Fraud ?

TYPES OF BALLOTS• Australian Ballot: a secret ballot that is prepared, distributed

and counted by the government; used in all elections since 1888.

– This replaced oral voting or using different colored ballots prepared by the political parties.

• Office-Block Ballot: all candidates for the same office are grouped under the title of that office. Parties don’t like this as it emphasizes the office and not the party and also discourages straight-party voting.

TYPES OF BALLOTS• Party Column Ballot: all of a party’s candidates are arranged in

one column under the party label and symbol. This encourages straight-party voting.

• Voting By Mail: used for absentee ballots; Oregon uses this exclusively; they do not have any polling places.

THE NOMINATION PROCESS1. Defining Possible Candidates and Leading

Contenders (The Invisible Primary)

2. The Primaries and Delegate Selection(Initial Contests and Mist Clearing)

3. The Convention

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

Defining Possible Candidates and Leading Contenders (Testing the Waters)“No one wants to back a loser”

• Key Money Raisers (“Fat Cats”)• Hollywood Influentials

• Media Commentary• Party Influentials• Interest Groups

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

Testing the Waters in 2012:Mitt RomneyRick SantorumNewt GingrichRon PaulRick PerryMichelle BachmannHerman CainDonald Trump

Invisible Primary, 2011

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

The Primaries and Delegate SelectionPrimaries and Caucus

• Importance of primaries:• In 1912 12 Democratic 13 Republican• In 1980 31 Democratic 35

Republican• In 2012 38 Democratic 39 Republican

PRIMARIES• Closed Primary: only declared members of the party can vote

in the party’s primary.

• Open Primary: any voter can vote in either party’s primary without declaring a party affiliation.

• Blanket Primary: a voter can vote for candidates of more than one party.

• Run-Off Primary: if no candidate receives a majority of votes, the top two must compete in another primary.

• “Top Two” Primary: all candidates appear on the same ballot and the top two run in the general election.

CAUCUSES• A party meeting held where voters can select

delegates to attend a convention.

– In Texas, the night of the primary the parties hold conventions. Delegates are selected at the precinct convention to attend the county or district convention and this convention would select delegates to attend the state convention where delegates are selected for the national convention.

When States Select Delegates

JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay June

20042000 2008 2012*

*Many states had their selection processdelayed because of redistricting challenges

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

The Primaries and Delegate SelectionPrimaries and Caucus

• Until 1968• delegates selected by party leaders• all states are important• party dominated

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

The Primaries and Delegate SelectionPrimaries and Caucus

• Since 1968• candidate dominated• most delegates selected by primaries• early states are important• closed conventions

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

The ConventionPurpose

2016: R: Cleveland

D: Philadelphia

• Role of the media • Cross-section of the American public?• Likelihood of deadlock? • Post-convention “surge”

DECLINING COVERAGE

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1980

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1996

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2004

2008

020406080

100120140160180200

Series 1

Coverage on NBC, ABC and CBS

THE NOMINATION PROCESS

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Democratic Nom-inee

Republican Nom-inee

Week of the year that the

candidate won a majority of

delegates

THE ELECTION

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20000

1020304050607080

Before Primaries Before Labor Day A Majority of American Voters Decide How to Vote Before the Fall Campaign Begins. Many decide even

before the primaries.

THE ELECTIONVoters who supported Obama (in %)

Voters who supported Romney (in %)

2012 Election

927

45

Column1

DemocratRepublicanIndependent

8

93

50

Column1

THE MONEY FACTOR

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

80 100 100 200 195 250 350710

1400

1990

In Millions

THE MONEY FACTOR

400

333

289

92

Under $200More Than $200Democratic PartySuper PACs

110

379

351

225

Under $200MoreThan $200Republican PartySuper PACs

Obama Romney

THE MONEY FACTORPresidential candidates may receive public

funding-- if you receive public funding, then you are limited as to the amount that you can spend

THE MONEY FACTORThe Federal Election Commission limits the

maximum individual contribution to federal candidates-- in 2008 the maximum was $2,300

-- every year this figure is adjusted for inflation -- small donors typically make up a small proportion

of the money raised by a candidate (less than 20%)

-- there are no limits for a candidate to “self-finance” their campaign

THE MONEY FACTOR527s: (from a section of the IRS Code)

-- organizations (individuals and PACs) may finance issue ads that advocate a particular policy but may not endorse a specific candidate

-- there is no limit to the size of contributions to these groups

THE MONEY FACTORPolitical Action Committees (PACs):

-- corporations and unions as well as trade and professional groups form PACs

-- in 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that corporations and unions were “people” and that there could

be no limit on the amount of money that they could spend to “advocate or electioneering”

Citizens United v. FEC

Super Pac DonorsRepublican Donors: 1. 10 m. Sheldon Adelson (Casino owner) 2. 10 m. Miriam Adelson 3. 10 m. Bob Perry (Houston homebuilder) 4. 2.8 m. Oxbow Carbon LLC (oil and gas [Koch]) 5. 2.3 m. Harold Simmons (Dallas billionaire) 6. 2.2 m. Julian Robertson (hedge fund company)

Democratic Donors: 1. 3.5 m. Fred Eychaner (Chicago media mogul) 2. 3.5 m. James Simons (hedge fund company 3. 3.0 m. Jeffrey Katzenburg (Dreamworks Animation) 4. 2.0 m. Pipefitters Union 5. 2.0 m. Irwin Jacobs (Qualcomm) 6. 2.0 m. Jon Stryker (Gay rights activist)

Super Pac FundsRestore our Future Con-Romney 96.7mAmerican Crossroads Con 56.8mPriorities USA Action Lib-Obama 35.6mWinning our Future Con-Gingrich 23.9mClub for Growth Con 13.8mAmerican Bridge Lib 8.6mRed, White & Blue Con-Santorum 8.3mAFL-CIO Lib 7.1mCongressional Leadership Con 6.5mMake Us Great Again Con-Perry 5.6m

THE ELECTION

THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College

Why??

How do we choose a president without political parties (they were frowned upon), without

national campaigns (the office seeks the person rather than the person seeks the office), and without upsetting the balance between the executive and legislative branches and the

national and state governments?

THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College

Why??

Have Congress choose the president:This would lead to hard feelings among members of Congress and would lead to unsightly political bargaining

Have the state legislatures choose the president:This would lead to an erosion of federal authority as the president would be too beholding to certain states

Have the president elected by direct popular vote:People would not be aware of a candidate who was not local and would vote for their “favorite son” and no person would emerge with a popular majority.

Finally, the “Committee of Eleven” proposed an indirect election of the president through a College of Electors.

THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College

The Electoral College was expected to be composed of “free electors” who could vote for anyone. The person who came in first would become president and the runner-up would be vice-president.

If nobody had a majority of votes, then the election would go into the House. Our Founding Fathers expected that almost all elections would be determined in the House of Representatives as they expected many candidates to receive electoral votes.

This worked well until the formation of political parties. By 1796, the electors were no longer “free electors” but had become “partisan electors.”

THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College

Each state has the number of electors equal to the number of their members in the House and the Senate

H + S = # of Electors

(Texas) 36 + 2 = 38 Electors(USA) 435 + 100 + 3 (DC) = 538 Electors

A majority of 538 (270) is needed to win

THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College

• The objective is to obtain 270 electoral votes

• Instead of 1 presidential election, we have 51 separate presidential elections

• To win Texas’s electoral vote, the candidate must obtain a plurality of popular votes in the state

• So where does a candidate campaign?? • In 2004, 82% of party resources were spent in only 9 states.

The Battleground States2012

New Hampshire (4)Virginia (13)

North Carolina (15)Ohio (18)Iowa (6)

Colorado (9)Nevada (6)Florida (29)

Wisconsin (10)(110)

http://www.270towin.com

The Battleground States2012

96% of the spending on television ads between April 11th and November 6th by presidential campaigns and allied groups went to the battleground states.

99% of the campaign stops by the presidential or vice-presidential candidates were in the battleground states.

How Presidents and Vice Presidents are Chosen

Acetate P–2

POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE

Election Year

President Winner’s Electoral Vote

Winner’s Popular Vote

1956 Eisenhower 86.1 57.4

1960 Kennedy 58.0 49.7

1964 LB Johnson 90.3 61.6

1968 Nixon 55.9 43.4

1972 Nixon 96.7 60.7

1976 Carter 55.2 50.1

POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE

Election Year

President Winner’s Electoral Vote

Winner’s Popular Vote

1980 Reagan 90.9 50.7

1984 Reagan 97.4 59.8

1988 Bush 79.0 53.4

1992 Clinton 68.8 43.2

1996 Clinton 70.4 49.2

2000 GW Bush 50.1 49.8

POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE

Election Year

President Winner’s Electoral Vote

Winner’s Popular Vote

2004 GW Bush 53.2 51.2

2008 Obama 67.8 53.3

2012 Obama 61.7 52.5

Robin Williams

THE ELECTIONThe Electoral College

The Electoral College has reversed the outcome three times:1876 (Hayes v. Tilden), 1888 (Harrison v. Cleveland), 2000 (Bush v. Gore).

The House of Representatives has decided two elections:1800 (Jefferson v. Burr), 1824 (Adams v. Jackson v. Clay)

In 18 of 56 presidential elections (Washington to Obama), the winning candidate did not have a majority of popular votes.

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGEThe Electoral College violates democratic principles:

State Electoral Votes Population +/- Represented

CA 55 37.34m -15.4% TX 38 25.27m -13.6%

NY 29 19.42m -14.2%FL 29 18.90m -11.8%IL 20 12.86m -10.7%

WY 3 0.57m +203.4%DC 3 0.60m +186.5%VT 3 0.63m +173.5%ND 3 0.68m +155.1%AK 3 0.72m +138.9%

ELECTORAL COLLEGE REFORMS

• Direct Popular Vote

• Proportional Voting

• District Plan

DISTRICT PLAN

R = 100D = 85

R = 110D = 95

R = 75D = 110

3 Districts = 5 Electoral Votes

Used in Maine and Nebraska

CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESSelect a Theme:

-- most campaign themes are not issue oriented, but are focused on a candidates’ personal qualities or image

-- “Change we can believe in”-- “Stay the course”-- “Fights for the taxpayer”-- “Cares about you”

-- Themes must be stated in concise and catchy sound bites

JibJab

CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESNegative Campaigning:

-- a media campaign seeks to define the opponent in negative terms

-- the first negative ad was made by Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and paints his opponent, Barry Goldwater, as an irresponsible person who is likely to use nuclear

weapons in Vietnam (Daisy Girl)-- John Kerry, a decorated veteran of the Vietnam

conflict (one Silver Star, a Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts) was accused of supplying aid and comfort to the North Vietnamese by speaking about American atrocities committed during the war (Swift Boat)

CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESNegative Campaigning:

)1. Advertise early if you have the money.

2. Go negative early, often, and right through election day.

3. Appeal to the heart and gut, rather than to the head.

4. Define your opponent to the voters before he or she can define him/herself or you.

5. If attacked, hit back harder.

6. It’s easier to give voters a negative impression of your opponent than it is to improve their image of you.

Going Negative

Campaign Ads: Presidential

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CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESNews Management:

-- News coverage of the candidate is more credible than paid advertisements

-- Campaigns are planned to get the maximum favorable “free” exposure on the evening news-- So each day a candidate must do something newsworthyand provide good photo ops

Law Enforcement Military Education

CAMPAIGN STRATEGIESPaid Advertising:

-- paid spots on television are usually only 15 or 30 seconds long-- television time is expensive-- little attention is paid to issues; instead the ads focus

on emotions

Biographical Backfire Backfire Commander in Chief Dole Kerry Obama Bush/Quayle

IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNINGIs a good campaign the key to victory?

-- probably not

What is the purpose of a campaign?-- reinforce voters’ preferences for candidates-- activate voters to contribute money or ring doorbells-- convert voters to your candidate

IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNINGMost people pay little attention to campaigns

and those who do have selective perception

Long-term factors, like party identification, influence voting behavior regardless of the campaign

Incumbents start with a substantial advantage in terms of name recognition and a track record

Voter TurnoutIn Texas, turnout is higher in presidential elections than in nonpresidential elections—this follows the national trend.

The voter turnout in Texas falls well below the national average. Why?

Long ballot and lack of information about candidates and issues

Voter fatigue (too many elections)Negative campaigningLow levels of educational attainmentLow per capita incomeHigh rate of povertyYoung populationLittle party competition

Texas Turnout

Voter Turnout By State in 2012(as % of Voting Eligible Population)

Highest Turnout Lowest Turnout

1. Minnesota 76.1% 41. Kentucky 55.9%2. Wisconsin** 73.2% 42. New Mexico 54.9%3. Colorado** 71.1% 43. New York 53.6%4. New Hampshire** 70.9% 44. Arizona 53.3%5. Iowa** 70.2% 45. Tennessee 52.6%6. Maine 69.2% 46. Arkansas 51.0%7. Virginia** 66.9% 47. Texas 50.1%8. Maryland 66.8% 48. Oklahoma 49.6%9. Massachusetts 66.6% 49. West Virginia 46.8%10. Michigan 65.3% 50. Hawaii 44.5%

Five of the ten states with the highest turnout have some form of election day registration.Five of the ten states with the highest turnout were swing states.**

Average turnout in the 10 swing states was 7.2% higher than in the non-swing states.Five of the lowest turnout states are considered solidly Democratic or solidly Republican and

have more burdensome registration requirements.

Early VotingThirty-two states have some form of early voting.

In Texas, early voting begins two weeks prior to the election and ends four days before the election.

Early Voting (Texas):2004 23%2008 31%2012 35%

Older voters prefer to vote early, while younger persons prefer to vote in-person on election day.

Election Day RegistrationElection day registration allows voters to register or update their registration at the polls on Election Day and then cast a regular ballot.

States with EDR have consistently higher voter participation rates

In 2012, states with EDR had an average turnoutof 71.3%; this was 12.5% higher than theturnout in states without EDR.

All EDR states had voter turnout above the national average.

Election Day RegistrationStates that allow election day registration:

Colorado 2013California 2016Connecticut 2012Hawaii 2018Idaho 1994Illinois 2014Iowa 2007Maine 1973Minnesota 1974Montana 2005New Hampshire 1996Vermont 2015Wisconsin 1975Wyoming 1994

THE CHANGING AMERICAN VOTER(%)

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 20320

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Other non-WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American

ELIGIBILITY AND TURNOUT(%)

1828 1852 1876 1892 1924 1948 1972 20000

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EligibleTurnout

Who Voted in 2012

Gender Race Age Party Income0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

53F

72W

19-29

38D

≤ 20K

47M

13B

2730-44

32R

2130-50

10H

3845-64

29I

≥ 50

1665+