CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS

CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS

CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONSThe first Tuesday after the first Monday.The process- president1. Campaign and debate for primary electionsCandidate for the two major parties chosen by primary processConventions- formally nominate and promote candidateCampaign and debate for general electionElection dayElectoral College formality

TYPES OF ELECTIONSPRIMARY- Decides which candidate party prefers in the general election.Closed- only vote within partyOpen- vote either party, but only one party- Ind can vote tooBlanket primary- vote either party and cross over on ballot.Beauty contest- Vote not binding, just a preferenceCAUCUS??We know that primary thing. What the heck is a caucus?

Can you believe this?Primary election ideological stances are more extreme, as only motivated voteThe debates are a test

GENERAL ELECTION- Primary winner from each party run for the office at stake

Following primary/caucus season the party has a huge party:The Convention:1. Choose candidate- confirm choice of voters2. create platform3. Advertise, advertise, advertise4. Get away from home-party!!Typical convention activity:

Or this:

Or this:

Or even this:

And finally:

Who are these goofs in the funny hats?Primary elections choose them, not presidential candidate Typically proportional to vote won in stateDems have superdelegates too- party leaders who go to convention and vote as they choose. 20% of delegates in 2008. Protect establishment

General election requires a move to the center to attract the less motivated, less passionate

Consequently, primary elections require different lies than the general election

I lied, then I lied differentlyHES THE MAN!Choosing a Presidential candidate:50 separate state elections- exhausting but allows for every voice to be heardStates use PRIMARY or CAUCUS

Frontloading: Primaries not washing machinesStart earlier and earlier1968 RFK announced candidacy in March but now candidates are chosen by then, with 70% chosen by thenNH primary- 1968 March 111980 February 262004 January 8

Hurts unknowns, helps well funded, hurts slow starter, hurts process as we dont see them under fireSo why frontload?Thought is that you settle early so candidate can save money and avoid protracted ugly campaign against people that are actually allies.And who do we/they chooseShankar Vedantam Wash PostGOP chooses established well known national figure (Bush, Reagan, McCain etc)Dems choose lesser knowns, with little DC background ( Clinton, Carter, Obama), someone who starts off unknownWho do we choose ( cont)Two contrary forces- 1 . Electable candidate 2. appease party extremists- they are people who raise money, campaign, dock on doors Think Tea party- they are passionate but can they choose an electable candidate? Easier when party chose candidate but now it is the public.WHAT DECIDES ELECTIONS?Many say vote the man. Lies!!1976 NATDEM REPCARTER 51 80 11 FORD 49 20 89

2000NAT DEM REP GORE 49 86 8 BUSH 48 11 91 LETS PARTY!!Party is the major factor but democrats dont always win despite 48% to 40% lead is registered voters. Dems less wed to partyIndependents often prefer GOPHigher % of GOP voters actually voteWHATSS YOUR ISSUE?Broad issues predominate Economy is #1 ( Its the economy stupid) war important too

Retrospective voting- How has he done?Prospective voting- What will he do?The economy and voting for President

JUMP ON AND TAKE A RIDECoattails: Popular president has ability to drag in others from same party on his/her coattails.- effect is in decline

BOY SCOUT DINNER? YUMMYConstituency services get votes at local level. Communication in the communityFranking- Mailing stuff for free

That aint chump changeFunding a campaign:Hard money vs soft money:Hard is given directly to a campaign, soft is nebulous , unregulated money spent on issues, party building etc.2002 McCain/Feingold eliminated soft money.but not really

McCain/Feingold..DOABipartisan campaign Reform Act of 2002- outlawed soft money and restricted hard money1. Eliminated soft money2. Prohibited corporations from broadcast electioneering within 60 days of electionThey are so darn trickySoft money lives!!- 527 organizations ( named for section in the tax code) run // campaigns ex.- Swift Boat veterans, Moveon.orgCitizens United v. Federal Election Commission- 5-4 ruling that corporations can not be restricted- 1st amendment!!!

And the cost is?

Want to be President? Put your hand out

Presidential campaign 2008

PACS PACS PACS PACS Political Action Committee- run by corporations, unions, politicians etc.Raise money for candidates 2008 limits $5,000 to an individual per election cycle $15,000 to the partyTypically give to those that help the most- buying influenceGee,I wonder why these guys are getting big money

PAC contribution limits

PACS PACS PACS PACS

Who Loves Politicians?

Little BUNDLE of JoyBundling- When a donor maxes out he gets friends, employees etc to donate and he presents the donation in one big bundle. BINGO, influence is purchased

Bundle of influenceSuper PACsPACs give money to politicians, Super PACs do notPACs have those nasty spending limits, Super PACs do not2012 Super PAC spending just through FEBRUARY!!! Are you kidding me?Confused? AbsolutelyPAC :funnel campaign contributions directly to candidates. Corporations cannot contribute directly to PACs but can sponsor a PAC for employee donations. Annual donations are limited to $5,000 from individuals, whose names and contributions must be disclosed. Bundling likelySuper PAC:raise and spend unlimited amounts on politics, must operate independently of candidates and cannot contribute to individual candidates. Donors must be disclosed to the FEC527 group: can run political ads with unlimited individual and corporate contributions but must disclose donors to the IRS.

REAL OR POLLYANISH?Wilson argues PACs are so numerous that politicians can take money and still vote as they please. PACs only make up 27% of all contributions.Think back to the article about the super committee. Can Wilson be right?What about Congress?100 Senators 435 in House of Representatives- each represents about 600,000 people. Every 10 years a new census is done to determine representation.Gerrymandering and malapportionment

GerrymanderingDistricts drawn in an odd manner to benefit one candidate or party over another. The game is the same, the board is different

Political Pornography Wall St Journal

What Maryland was

Marylands new mess

MalapportionmentDistricts of considerably unequal size