Avalon's DM 101 - Analytics and Reporting

1Avalon Consulting Group, Inc.

All rights reserved, 2016 Cover Page

Avalon Consulting Group

www.avalonconsulting.net

Client Training DayDirect Marketing 101: Analytics

September 7, 2017

©2017 Avalon Consulting Group.

All Rights Reserved.

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HOW DO WE DEFINE ANALYTICS AND REPORTING?

IntroductionProgram and Campaign-

Level Reporting

Master File Analysis and Dashboard

Ad Hoc Analytics

Predictive Modeling

Long-Range Forecasting

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Program and Campaign-Level

Reporting

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Cash to budget reporting

Fiscal year comparisons –

overall, program, campaign

Revenue by channel

Monthly and Quarterly

comparisonsCash flow trends

Program analysis

Segment analysis

Test log

Program and campaign-level reporting provides regular updates on progress towards budget and campaign performance.

Avalon’s reporting system – Merlin – offers a wealth of

reporting options updated weekly or bi-weekly.

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Merlin provides a range of reports that start with top level revenue and drill into campaign and segment performance.

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Master File Analysis & Dashboard

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The Avalon Inquire Master File Analysis and VitalStats Dashboard use donor level information to gauge the health and key trends

for your program.

Comparing key metrics will give you a deeper view into the

health, future performance, and potential of your program.

Donor level reporting

Quarterly and Annual

Updates

File composition

Retention

Donor ValueIncome/gifts per member

Upgrading

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Master File Analysis Example: File Growth, Composition and Retention

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Analysis of new joins by channel to show changes in acquisition.

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File composition analysis unveils dramatic changes and underlying issues.

Under $25

joins had

increased

dramatically =

low retention.

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First-year retention reporting to show changes over time.

Industry Ranges

FY: 20-40%

21.50%20.50%

17.90%

28.60%

2011 2012 2013 2014

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In this example, multi-year retention and overall retention are the highest of the past 4 years..

45.90%46.80%

49.10%

57.30%

61.70% 62.10% 62.40%

64.70%

2011 2012 2013 2014

Overall

retention

Multi-year

retention

Industry Ranges

MY: 50-70%

Overall: 45-65%

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Ad Hoc Analytics

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Ad hoc analytics tackle key questions and issues not available through standard reporting.

Designed on a project by project basis

Uses donor level information to provide

views not available through traditional

segmentation

Often includes subsequent revenue

and return on investment

components

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Ad Hoc Analysis Example: Long-Term Value

Background: The National Parks Conservation Association uses a premium in

their acquisition program to drive new joins at the $15 level. The long-term

value of premium donors was in question. Additionally, donor-level analysis

showed a clear break at new joins above $25.

Five year

“donor value”

jumps by 93%

for new joins

at the $25

first gift.

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First, NPCA tested a $25 ask against the $15 control to measure upfront results against ROI.

Year 1 Return on Investment favored the $25 ask over the $15 ask.

Net revenue was in favor of the $25 ask after one year, and retained members were 98% of those who had joined on the $15 ask (very similar!).

ROI after 1 year

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Then, NPCA performed a six month test of their $15 premium control against no premium.

As expected, the upfront performance indicated a decline in new joins. Long-term value analysis would be the true measure of results.

Average gift still slightly favored the premium package.

Net revenue was virtually tied with the cost of the premium included.

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Findings from Analysis:

Evaluating the new joins from each group at 2 years out unveiled more interesting findings about the test.

With a premium

at $15.

Despite far fewer joins, the No Premium group produced similar net revenue after one year, and individual donors had a better long-term value.

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Predictive Modeling

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Modeling is used to boost campaign performance by selecting the best donors based on a prediction of their value.

Used for direct mail and

telemarketing

Helps both reduce the cost of a

campaign and target best prospects

Most effective for high cost

campaigns or those with

marginal results

Based on previous giving,

demographic data, or other available

variables

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Example: Reinstatement Gains Chart

The example below shows how the tiered deciles

predicted by the model have performed. The model

works!

tier quantity gifts incomeresp

rateavg gift $/M CPM Net/M Net NPD

1 7,290 198 $5,940 2.72% $30.00 $815 $294 $521 $3,797 $19.18

2 7,365 207 $5,367 2.81% $25.93 $729 $294 $435 $3,202 $15.47

3 7,331 144 $3,707 1.96% $25.74 $506 $294 $212 $1,552 $10.78

4 7,321 88 $2,316 1.20% $26.32 $316 $294 $22 $164 $1.86

5 7,330 71 $1,768 0.97% $24.90 $241 $294 -$53 -$387 -$5.45

6 7,380 60 $2,088 0.81% $34.80 $283 $294 -$11 -$82 -$1.36

7 7,284 68 $1,598 0.93% $23.50 $219 $294 -$75 -$543 -$7.99

Total 51,301 836 $22,784 1.6% $27.25 $444 $294 $150 $7,702 $9.21

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Long-Range Forecasting

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Long-range forecasting predicts the trajectory of a program and aids in acquisition investment planning.

Long-range forecasting uses many key metrics to

estimate future performance.

Forecasting is a tool, not a budget

Helpful in educating

leadership about the impact of

current decisions

Ability to provide a range of scenarios

based on the organization’s

goals

Updated yearly to track progress

against projection

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Example Forecast: Status Quo

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue

Centennial

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FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue

Centennial BumpCentennial BumpCentennial Bump Media Bump

Example Forecast: Aggressive Investment

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Questions?

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Thank you!TJ Hillinger

Vice President & Director of Analytical Services

Avalon Consulting Group

805 15th Street NW, Suite 700

Washington, DC 20005

202-627-6512

tjh@avalonconsulting.net

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