1 Avalon Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved, 2016 Cover Page Avalon Consulting Group www.avalonconsulting.net Client Training Day Direct Marketing 101: Analytics September 7, 2017 ©2017 Avalon Consulting Group. All Rights Reserved.
1Avalon Consulting Group, Inc.
All rights reserved, 2016 Cover Page
Avalon Consulting Group
www.avalonconsulting.net
Client Training DayDirect Marketing 101: Analytics
September 7, 2017
©2017 Avalon Consulting Group.
All Rights Reserved.
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HOW DO WE DEFINE ANALYTICS AND REPORTING?
IntroductionProgram and Campaign-
Level Reporting
Master File Analysis and Dashboard
Ad Hoc Analytics
Predictive Modeling
Long-Range Forecasting
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Program and Campaign-Level
Reporting
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Cash to budget reporting
Fiscal year comparisons –
overall, program, campaign
Revenue by channel
Monthly and Quarterly
comparisonsCash flow trends
Program analysis
Segment analysis
Test log
Program and campaign-level reporting provides regular updates on progress towards budget and campaign performance.
Avalon’s reporting system – Merlin – offers a wealth of
reporting options updated weekly or bi-weekly.
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Merlin provides a range of reports that start with top level revenue and drill into campaign and segment performance.
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Master File Analysis & Dashboard
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The Avalon Inquire Master File Analysis and VitalStats Dashboard use donor level information to gauge the health and key trends
for your program.
Comparing key metrics will give you a deeper view into the
health, future performance, and potential of your program.
Donor level reporting
Quarterly and Annual
Updates
File composition
Retention
Donor ValueIncome/gifts per member
Upgrading
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Master File Analysis Example: File Growth, Composition and Retention
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Analysis of new joins by channel to show changes in acquisition.
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File composition analysis unveils dramatic changes and underlying issues.
Under $25
joins had
increased
dramatically =
low retention.
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First-year retention reporting to show changes over time.
Industry Ranges
FY: 20-40%
21.50%20.50%
17.90%
28.60%
2011 2012 2013 2014
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In this example, multi-year retention and overall retention are the highest of the past 4 years..
45.90%46.80%
49.10%
57.30%
61.70% 62.10% 62.40%
64.70%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Overall
retention
Multi-year
retention
Industry Ranges
MY: 50-70%
Overall: 45-65%
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Ad Hoc Analytics
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Ad hoc analytics tackle key questions and issues not available through standard reporting.
Designed on a project by project basis
Uses donor level information to provide
views not available through traditional
segmentation
Often includes subsequent revenue
and return on investment
components
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Ad Hoc Analysis Example: Long-Term Value
Background: The National Parks Conservation Association uses a premium in
their acquisition program to drive new joins at the $15 level. The long-term
value of premium donors was in question. Additionally, donor-level analysis
showed a clear break at new joins above $25.
Five year
“donor value”
jumps by 93%
for new joins
at the $25
first gift.
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First, NPCA tested a $25 ask against the $15 control to measure upfront results against ROI.
Year 1 Return on Investment favored the $25 ask over the $15 ask.
Net revenue was in favor of the $25 ask after one year, and retained members were 98% of those who had joined on the $15 ask (very similar!).
ROI after 1 year
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Then, NPCA performed a six month test of their $15 premium control against no premium.
As expected, the upfront performance indicated a decline in new joins. Long-term value analysis would be the true measure of results.
Average gift still slightly favored the premium package.
Net revenue was virtually tied with the cost of the premium included.
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Findings from Analysis:
Evaluating the new joins from each group at 2 years out unveiled more interesting findings about the test.
With a premium
at $15.
Despite far fewer joins, the No Premium group produced similar net revenue after one year, and individual donors had a better long-term value.
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Predictive Modeling
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Modeling is used to boost campaign performance by selecting the best donors based on a prediction of their value.
Used for direct mail and
telemarketing
Helps both reduce the cost of a
campaign and target best prospects
Most effective for high cost
campaigns or those with
marginal results
Based on previous giving,
demographic data, or other available
variables
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Example: Reinstatement Gains Chart
The example below shows how the tiered deciles
predicted by the model have performed. The model
works!
tier quantity gifts incomeresp
rateavg gift $/M CPM Net/M Net NPD
1 7,290 198 $5,940 2.72% $30.00 $815 $294 $521 $3,797 $19.18
2 7,365 207 $5,367 2.81% $25.93 $729 $294 $435 $3,202 $15.47
3 7,331 144 $3,707 1.96% $25.74 $506 $294 $212 $1,552 $10.78
4 7,321 88 $2,316 1.20% $26.32 $316 $294 $22 $164 $1.86
5 7,330 71 $1,768 0.97% $24.90 $241 $294 -$53 -$387 -$5.45
6 7,380 60 $2,088 0.81% $34.80 $283 $294 -$11 -$82 -$1.36
7 7,284 68 $1,598 0.93% $23.50 $219 $294 -$75 -$543 -$7.99
Total 51,301 836 $22,784 1.6% $27.25 $444 $294 $150 $7,702 $9.21
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Long-Range Forecasting
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Long-range forecasting predicts the trajectory of a program and aids in acquisition investment planning.
Long-range forecasting uses many key metrics to
estimate future performance.
Forecasting is a tool, not a budget
Helpful in educating
leadership about the impact of
current decisions
Ability to provide a range of scenarios
based on the organization’s
goals
Updated yearly to track progress
against projection
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Example Forecast: Status Quo
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue
Centennial
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FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue
Centennial BumpCentennial BumpCentennial Bump Media Bump
Example Forecast: Aggressive Investment
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Questions?
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Thank you!TJ Hillinger
Vice President & Director of Analytical Services
Avalon Consulting Group
805 15th Street NW, Suite 700
Washington, DC 20005
202-627-6512
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