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WhatShouldU.S.PolicyBeintheArc6c?
AndrewHolland
SeniorFellowforEnergyandClimateAmericanSecurityProject
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WhyShouldtheU.S.CareAbouttheArc6c?
ClimateChange
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WhyShouldtheU.S.CareAbouttheArc6c?
TheArc6ciswarmingfasterthananywhereonEarth
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Manifesta6onsofArc6cWarming
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Manifesta6onsofArc6cWarming
Whenwillitbeicefree? Es6matesvary200accordingtoNa6onalSnowandIceCenter IPCCmadenopredic6on Somescien6ficmodelspredictassoonas2020
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Trans-Arc6cShipping
Shipping NorthernSeaRouteover
Russiawillreduce
distancefromShanghai-Hamburgby4000miles
ADirectrouteovertheNorthPolewillreduce
theDistanceby5000
miles
Floa6ngPipelineforOilandGas
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WhyShouldtheU.S.CareAbouttheArc6c?
Energy
AlaskaistheSecondLargestProducerofOil
intheU.S.at572,000
barrelsperday
AlaskainOPEC?
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Arc6cOceanEnergyExplora6on
OilandGasExplora6on TheArc6cholds22%of
theworlds
undiscoveredenergyresources
90billionbarrelsofrecoverableoil
Source:Arc6c
Monitoring
Assessment
Program
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U.S.Arc6cEnergyProduc6on
AlaskasNorthSlopeOilProduc6on,2011:52,000barrelsperdayofoil
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TheTransAlaskaPipeline
Trans-AlaskaPipelineCapacity:2.1million
barrelsofoilperday
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OffshoreArc6cEnergyExplora6on
Shellhasreceivedpermissionfromthe
EPAandInteriortodrill
intheChukchiandBeaufortSeas
Firstoilproduc6on:2019-2022
PeakProduc6on:1.7millionbarrelsperday
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TheArc6cNa6onalWildlifeRefuge
Createdin1980byCongress
8millionacresdesignatedasWilderness
1.5millionacresofcoastalplanedesignatedforstudy
Drillingwouldbeonjustasmallarea,butenvironmentallysensi6ve
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TheArc6cNa6onalWildlifeRefuge
Poten6alProduc6onfromANWRisunknown
USGS(1998): 5.7-1billionbarrels 500,000-1,500,000
barrelsperday
Notbasedonexplora6onwells
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Poli6calControversyoverANWR
ManyvotesonopeningANWRsince199
VetoedbyPresidentClinton Insertedin05EnergyBill
withdrawninConference
2012:House-PassedEnergyBillincludesANWRunlikelytoreceiveaSenateVote
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OnefinalWordNaturalGasintheArc6c
Hugepoten6alresourcesbothonshoreandoffshore
But Nopipeline Nodomes6cmarketinthe
currentNaturalGasglut
MyConclusion:unlikelytobeu6lizedinthemedium
term
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LimitstoArc6cU6liza6on
Accessremainsdifficult Infrastructureissparse
Extremeclimateandweather Domes6cproduc6onofenergyinthelower48
isgrowingrapidly-Alaskanenergymayno
longerbeneeded
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ConclusionsandQues6ons-
Whatpriority:oilproduc6onorEnvironmentalProtec6on?
Whichchoicebeermanagesrisk?Onshoreoildrilling,oroffshore?NOTE:Drillingoffshoremaydisplacetheneedto
openANWRtodrilling,aspoten6alproduc6on
cannotexceedtheAlaskanpipelinemaximum
WhatisroleoftheCoastGuardandNavyinthiseffort?
