1
Utah’s Age Waves and Their Potential Consequences: Public & Higher Education
Utah Education Deans’ ColloquiumDecember 14, 2006Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D.Bureau of Economic & Business ResearchUniversity of Utah
Overview
Population TrendsRegional population trendsBirth cycles and their effect on age structureImmigration and migration patternsIncreasing cultural and ethnic diversity
Utah Higher Education TrendsDeclining participationIncreasing attainmentUnder representation of women and minorities
Population Trends Higher Education Trends
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mill
ions
of P
erso
ns
South West Midwest Northeast
U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.
• About 2/3 of the national growth from 1900 to 2000 occurred in the South and West.• Nearly 90% of the national growth from 2000 to 2030 is projected to occur in the South and West.
• West + South > 50% National Population by 1980.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mill
ions
of
Pers
ons
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Utah
New Mexico
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Population in the Intermountain West: 1900 - 2030
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.
Between 2000 and 2030, populations of Arizona and Nevada:
Will double.
Will generate 48% (AZ) and 20% (NV) growth in Mountain Division
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
3
Utah and U.S. Annual Births: 1940-2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Utah
Birt
hs (t
hous
ands
)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
US B
irths
(mill
ions
)
UtahUS
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics.
U.S. Baby Boom
(1946-1964)
U.S. Echo Boom
42-60 years old 30-41 years old Ages 29 and younger
U.S. Baby Bust
1965-1976
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah and U.S. Annual Births: 1940-2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Utah
Birt
hs (t
hous
ands
)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5U
S B
irth
s (m
illio
ns)
UtahUS
U.S. Boom Peak: 1957
Utah Boom Peak: 1962
Utah Echo Peak: 1980-2
Utah Echo EchoPeak: 2012??
U.S. Echo Peak: 1990
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
4
Utah: Components of Population Change
-25,000
-15,000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Net In-MigrationNatural Increase
Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee, revised 12/2006.
Utah Echo Peak: 1980-2
Utah Boom Peak: 1962
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Total Births 5-17 Yrs AgoFall School Enrollment
Sources: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; Utah Population Estimates Committee.
Note: Births are fiscal year (July 1) births and enrollment is fall enrollment, revised 12/2006.
2011: Cumulative Births from 1993 through 2006
Utah Fall School Enrollment &Births 5-17 Years Prior
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
5
Utah & U.S. Annual Births: 5-17 Years Prior
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Utah
Birt
hs (t
hous
ands
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US B
irth
s (m
illio
ns)
UtahUS
U.S. Peak: 1969
U.S. Peak: 2006
U.S. Trough: 1984
Utah Peak: 1969
Utah Peak: 1994
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population EstimatesCommittee and the National Center for Health Statistics.
Utah Trough: 2001
Utah Trough: 1975
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
High Economic Growth and Fertility2002 BaselineLow Economic Growth and Fertility2005 GOPB Baseline
Sources: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002; GOPB 2005 Baseline Projections.
Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
6
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
AmountsRates
School Age Population
Boom: 2006-2018
when Increases> 10,000 per year
Annual Amounts and Rates of Change in the Utah School Age Population
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
16,075
9,776
14,330
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
School Age PopulationFall School Enrollment
School Age Population
Boom: 2006-2018
when Increases> 10,000 per year
Annual Increase in Enrollment Approached 10,000 in 2004 & Exceeded in 2005 & 2006:
The Boom is Well Underway
Sources: Patricia Murphy, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; and Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
7
Utah & U.S. Annual Births: 18 Years Prior
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Utah
Birt
hs (t
hous
ands
)
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
US B
irth
s (m
illio
ns)
UtahUS
U.S. Peak: 1979
U.S. Peak: 2008
U.S. Trough: 1991
Utah Peak: 1980
Utah Peak: 2000
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah & U.S. Annual Births:18-24 Years Prior
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024
Utah
Birt
hs (t
hous
ands
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
US
Bir
ths
(mill
ions
)
UtahUS
U.S. Peak: 1980
U.S. Peak: 2013
U.S. Trough: 1996
Utah Peak: 1981
Utah Peak: 2002
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
8
Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years priorBureau of Census 2005GOPB 2005
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee.
Age wave hits college age 2016 - 2025
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Annual Change in Utah Employment and Utah Births 18-24 Years Prior
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ann
ual C
hang
e in
Job
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Uta
h B
irth
s 18
-24
Yea
rs P
rior
(000
)
Annual Change in JobsBirths 18-24 Years Prior
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the Utah Department of Workforce Services. Note: Jobs are nonfarm wage and salary employment.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
9
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
10
Region-to-Region Migration: 1995-2000, (Thousands)
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Net Domestic Migration and Movers from Abroad: Population Over 5 Years Old - 1995 to 2000
-1,500,000
-500,000
500,000
1,500,000
2,500,000
3,500,000
4,500,000Internal Net
Movers from Abroad
Internal Net + Movers from Abroad
Internal Net -1,270,658 -541,189 1,799,799 12,048 767,584Movers from Abroad 1,567,331 1,057,870 2,615,279 2,255,366 847,708Internal Net + Movers from Abroad 296,673 516,681 4,415,078 2,267,414 1,615,292
Northeast Midwest South West West Minus CA
Source: Berker and Faber 2003. Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
11
Net Domestic Migration and Movers from Abroad: Population Over 5 Years Old - 1995 to 2000
-50,000
50,000
150,000
250,000
350,000
450,000 Internal Net
Movers from Abroad
Internal Net + Movers from Abroad
Internal Net 316,148 162,633 33,847 -5,166 233,934 -29,945 25,296 -12,527
Movers from Abroad 182,982 134,715 20,966 6,884 75,212 38,706 64,663 5,237
Internal Net + Movers from Abroad 499,130 297,348 54,813 1,718 309,146 8,761 89,959 -7,290
Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico
Utah Wyoming
Source: Berker and Faber 2003. Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
12
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
13
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Foreign Born Population: 1850 – 2005
18%
32%
35%
19%18%
13%
4% 4% 3% 4% 3%
8%6%10%
31%
26%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Fore
ign
Bor
n Sh
are
of T
otal
Pop
ulat
ion
0
50
100
150
200
Num
ber o
f For
eign
Bor
n (T
hous
ands
)
Undocumented in 2005 =
85 k to 100 k
Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial census and ACS), Immigration and Naturalization Service, BEBR Calculations.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
202,528
14
Minority Share of the Population: Utah & US, 1850-2010
0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9%
5.5%7.6% 8.8%
14.7%17%
20%
15.7%14.4%
12.9%13.5%12.5%12.1%11.1%10.3%10.2%10.2%10.5%11.4%
16.8%
20.4%
24.4%
30.9%33%
36%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010
Utah US
Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002)
Note: Prior to 1970, minority is non-White. For 1970 and beyond, minority is non-White (may be Hispanic or non-Hispanic) plus Hispanic (may be of any race). Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Annual Increments in Fall Enrollment: White and Minority Populations
5,5682,897
5933,781
7,1994,863 5,429
3,4384,170
5,995
7,131
96
(6,000)
(3,000)
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2004-05 2005-06
MinorityWhite
Sources: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics, 12/2006.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
15
White Non-Hispanic
30%
Minority (All
Others)70%
Utah School Enrollment Increase: 2000 -2006
Enrollment Growth from 2000 to 2006:
Total: 50,406
Minority: 35,424
Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Not Hispanic
48%
Hispanic52%
Utah School Enrollment Increase: 2000 -2006
Enrollment Growth from 2000 to 2006:
Total: 50,406
Hispanic: 25,999
Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
16
Utah Minority Shares: Population and Students
17%
17%
18%
20%
16%15%
14%
17%16%
16%
15%15%15%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fall EnrollmentUtah Population
Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; and Population Estimates Program, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Original release date: 8/2006 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Share of 18 through 24 Year Olds Attending CollegeUtah & US – 1990 & 2000
40.2%
36.6%34.4% 34.0%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1990 2000
Utah US
Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of the Population, Social and Economic Characteristics: 1990 CP-2-24 and CP-1 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
17
Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College –Male and Female (1990)
40.2% 40.9%39.6%
34.4%32.7%
36.0%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Total Male Female
Utah US
Source: Bureau of Census, 1990 Census of the Population, CP2-1, CP2-24.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College by Sex and Nativity (2000)
36.9% 38.2
%
23.3%
35.2% 36.9
%
20.0%
38.6%
39.4%
27.6%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Total Native Born Foreign Born
Total Male Female
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
18
Utah Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College by Race and Ethnicity (2000)
39.3%
28.4%
18.7%
58.1%
28.6%35.6%
13.4% 10.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
White alonenot Hispanic
Black orAfrican
Americanalone notHispanic
AmericanIndian and
AlaskaNative alonenot Hispanic
Asian alonenot Hispanic
NativeHawaiianand Other
PacificIslanderalone notHispanic
Two ormore races
not Hispanic
Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)
Mexican
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Educational Attainment: 25 Years & Older
High School Graduate or Greater
75.2%
85.1%87.7%
80.4%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
1990 2000
US Utah
College Graduate or Greater
20.3%22.3%
26.1%24.4%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1990 2000
US Utah
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census data Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
19
Educational Attainment by Sex for Persons 25 Years & Older (2000)
High School Graduate or Greater
87.3% 88.1%
80.1% 80.7%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Males Females
US Utah
College Graduate or Greater
30.0%
26.1%
22.8%22.3%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Males Females
US Utah
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census data Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000)
45.5%
54.5%
18.2%
24.9%
75.1%
27.8%
37.9%
62.1%
21.7%
89.8%
30.5%
10.2%12.8%
87.2%
29.7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Less than HighSchool
High School orGreater
College Graduateor Greater
TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
20
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000)
39.7%
60.3%
21.2%
22.1%
77.9%
21.0%
32.8%
67.2%
21.1%
90.1%
22.0%
9.9%11.9%
88.1%
21.9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Less than HighSchool
High School orGreater
College Graduateor Greater
TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Share of Utah Population 25 Years & Older with at Least High School Completion – Minority Status (2000)
74%
86%
55%48%
80%
59%52%
82%
69%
84%91%
84%78%
69%
83%91%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Whitealone notHispanic
Blackalone notHispanic
AmericanIndian and
AlaskaNative
alone notHispanic
Asianalone notHispanic
NativeHawaiianand Other
PacificIslander
alone notHispanic
Two ormore races
notHispanic
Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)
Mexican
MaleFemale
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, SF4 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
21
Share of Utah Population 25 Years & Older with a Bachelors or Greater – Minority Status (2000)
13%
28%
10% 8%12% 10%
7%
41%
9%
20%
32%
22%
33%
8%
21%23%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Whitealone not
Hispanic orLatino
Blackalone notHispanic
AmericanIndian and
AlaskaNative
alone notHispanic or
Latino
Asianalone not
Hispanic orLatino
NativeHawaiianand Other
PacificIslander
alone notHispanic
Two ormore races
notHispanic
Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)
Mexican
MaleFemale
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, SF4 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Regional Population ShiftsWest and South drive national population growthCalifornia exports population domestically and imports it internationallyArizona and Nevada are the new growth engines of the westUtah has become increasingly dependent upon international migration to maintain positive net in-migration
Domestic net-migration has turned positive in the 2005 estimates – economic expansion
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
22
Age Wave Trends
School age population boom Is exceeding expectations because of unanticipated immigration and high internal growth of these new populations.Will continue for at least the next ten years.
18-24 year old population Is projected to grow very slowly (at best) for at least the next decade.Is the pipeline to college and the labor force.Is highly mobile.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Women
Attend college at rates that exceed the nation, particularly the native born.Complete degrees at rates that are slightly below those of their national counterparts.Have the highest fertility rates in the nation.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
23
Utah College Participation Rates
Are declining for the 18-24 populationExplained in part by immigration to Utah
Labor market drivenLower educational attainmentChildren are less likely to complete high school
Participation rates vary by minority statusHighest: Asians followed by white non-HispanicsLowest: Hispanics and American Indians
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Educational Attainment
Exceeds the nation, but varies widely by nativity, sex, and racial / ethnic group
Non-citizen immigrants - very low attainment Males - concentrated at the lowest and highest Females - concentrated in the middle Highest - Asians then white non-Hispanics, multi-race non-Hispanics, African Americans and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders Lowest - Native American and Hispanics (including Mexicans)
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
24
Hispanics
Utah’s largest minority groupRapidly growing – immigration and internal growth
Very high fertility at young agesLow educational attainmentHigh drop-out ratesLow median income – less able to leave labor force and complete education
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Perlich, UofU
Bottom LineUtah will remain relatively young, compared to the nation, but, like the nation, it is aging.The school age population boom is well under way and exceeding projections. With a flat 18 to 24 year old demographic for the next decade, declining college participation rates, and an increasing number of retirees, Utah faces declines in the number of newly college educated persons. This impacts the quality and quantity of the Utah labor force and the competitiveness of the state. Utah is becoming more diverse – culturally and ethnically
Immigration and high fertility rates of immigrants rapid growthGlobalization will continue to be a force
With changing population, conventional approaches based on the “old Utah” no longer fit the new realities.