1 Utah’s Age Waves and Their Potential Consequences: Public & Higher Education Utah Education Deans’ Colloquium December 14, 2006 Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Bureau of Economic & Business Research University of Utah Overview Population Trends Regional population trends Birth cycles and their effect on age structure Immigration and migration patterns Increasing cultural and ethnic diversity Utah Higher Education Trends Declining participation Increasing attainment Under representation of women and minorities Population Trends Higher Education Trends Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
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Utah’s Age Waves and Their Potential Consequences: Public & Higher Education
Utah Education Deans’ ColloquiumDecember 14, 2006Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D.Bureau of Economic & Business ResearchUniversity of Utah
Overview
Population TrendsRegional population trendsBirth cycles and their effect on age structureImmigration and migration patternsIncreasing cultural and ethnic diversity
Utah Higher Education TrendsDeclining participationIncreasing attainmentUnder representation of women and minorities
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.
• About 2/3 of the national growth from 1900 to 2000 occurred in the South and West.• Nearly 90% of the national growth from 2000 to 2030 is projected to occur in the South and West.
High Economic Growth and Fertility2002 BaselineLow Economic Growth and Fertility2005 GOPB Baseline
Sources: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002; GOPB 2005 Baseline Projections.
Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected
Annual Amounts and Rates of Change in the Utah School Age Population
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
16,075
9,776
14,330
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
School Age PopulationFall School Enrollment
School Age Population
Boom: 2006-2018
when Increases> 10,000 per year
Annual Increase in Enrollment Approached 10,000 in 2004 & Exceeded in 2005 & 2006:
The Boom is Well Underway
Sources: Patricia Murphy, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; and Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
7
Utah & U.S. Annual Births: 18 Years Prior
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Utah
Birt
hs (t
hous
ands
)
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
US B
irth
s (m
illio
ns)
UtahUS
U.S. Peak: 1979
U.S. Peak: 2008
U.S. Trough: 1991
Utah Peak: 1980
Utah Peak: 2000
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah & U.S. Annual Births:18-24 Years Prior
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024
Utah
Birt
hs (t
hous
ands
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
US
Bir
ths
(mill
ions
)
UtahUS
U.S. Peak: 1980
U.S. Peak: 2013
U.S. Trough: 1996
Utah Peak: 1981
Utah Peak: 2002
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
8
Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected
18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years priorBureau of Census 2005GOPB 2005
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee.
Age wave hits college age 2016 - 2025
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Annual Change in Utah Employment and Utah Births 18-24 Years Prior
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ann
ual C
hang
e in
Job
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Uta
h B
irth
s 18
-24
Yea
rs P
rior
(000
)
Annual Change in JobsBirths 18-24 Years Prior
Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the Utah Department of Workforce Services. Note: Jobs are nonfarm wage and salary employment.
Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002)
Note: Prior to 1970, minority is non-White. For 1970 and beyond, minority is non-White (may be Hispanic or non-Hispanic) plus Hispanic (may be of any race). Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Annual Increments in Fall Enrollment: White and Minority Populations
5,5682,897
5933,781
7,1994,863 5,429
3,4384,170
5,995
7,131
96
(6,000)
(3,000)
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2004-05 2005-06
MinorityWhite
Sources: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics, 12/2006.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
15
White Non-Hispanic
30%
Minority (All
Others)70%
Utah School Enrollment Increase: 2000 -2006
Enrollment Growth from 2000 to 2006:
Total: 50,406
Minority: 35,424
Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Not Hispanic
48%
Hispanic52%
Utah School Enrollment Increase: 2000 -2006
Enrollment Growth from 2000 to 2006:
Total: 50,406
Hispanic: 25,999
Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
16
Utah Minority Shares: Population and Students
17%
17%
18%
20%
16%15%
14%
17%16%
16%
15%15%15%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fall EnrollmentUtah Population
Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; and Population Estimates Program, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Original release date: 8/2006 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Share of 18 through 24 Year Olds Attending CollegeUtah & US – 1990 & 2000
40.2%
36.6%34.4% 34.0%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1990 2000
Utah US
Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of the Population, Social and Economic Characteristics: 1990 CP-2-24 and CP-1 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
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Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College –Male and Female (1990)
40.2% 40.9%39.6%
34.4%32.7%
36.0%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Total Male Female
Utah US
Source: Bureau of Census, 1990 Census of the Population, CP2-1, CP2-24.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College by Sex and Nativity (2000)
36.9% 38.2
%
23.3%
35.2% 36.9
%
20.0%
38.6%
39.4%
27.6%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Total Native Born Foreign Born
Total Male Female
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
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Utah Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College by Race and Ethnicity (2000)
39.3%
28.4%
18.7%
58.1%
28.6%35.6%
13.4% 10.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
White alonenot Hispanic
Black orAfrican
Americanalone notHispanic
AmericanIndian and
AlaskaNative alonenot Hispanic
Asian alonenot Hispanic
NativeHawaiianand Other
PacificIslanderalone notHispanic
Two ormore races
not Hispanic
Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)
Mexican
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Educational Attainment: 25 Years & Older
High School Graduate or Greater
75.2%
85.1%87.7%
80.4%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
1990 2000
US Utah
College Graduate or Greater
20.3%22.3%
26.1%24.4%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1990 2000
US Utah
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census data Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
19
Educational Attainment by Sex for Persons 25 Years & Older (2000)
High School Graduate or Greater
87.3% 88.1%
80.1% 80.7%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Males Females
US Utah
College Graduate or Greater
30.0%
26.1%
22.8%22.3%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Males Females
US Utah
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census data Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000)
45.5%
54.5%
18.2%
24.9%
75.1%
27.8%
37.9%
62.1%
21.7%
89.8%
30.5%
10.2%12.8%
87.2%
29.7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Less than HighSchool
High School orGreater
College Graduateor Greater
TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
20
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000)
39.7%
60.3%
21.2%
22.1%
77.9%
21.0%
32.8%
67.2%
21.1%
90.1%
22.0%
9.9%11.9%
88.1%
21.9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Less than HighSchool
High School orGreater
College Graduateor Greater
TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Share of Utah Population 25 Years & Older with at Least High School Completion – Minority Status (2000)
74%
86%
55%48%
80%
59%52%
82%
69%
84%91%
84%78%
69%
83%91%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Whitealone notHispanic
Blackalone notHispanic
AmericanIndian and
AlaskaNative
alone notHispanic
Asianalone notHispanic
NativeHawaiianand Other
PacificIslander
alone notHispanic
Two ormore races
notHispanic
Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)
Mexican
MaleFemale
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, SF4 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
21
Share of Utah Population 25 Years & Older with a Bachelors or Greater – Minority Status (2000)
13%
28%
10% 8%12% 10%
7%
41%
9%
20%
32%
22%
33%
8%
21%23%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Whitealone not
Hispanic orLatino
Blackalone notHispanic
AmericanIndian and
AlaskaNative
alone notHispanic or
Latino
Asianalone not
Hispanic orLatino
NativeHawaiianand Other
PacificIslander
alone notHispanic
Two ormore races
notHispanic
Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)
Mexican
MaleFemale
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, SF4 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Regional Population ShiftsWest and South drive national population growthCalifornia exports population domestically and imports it internationallyArizona and Nevada are the new growth engines of the westUtah has become increasingly dependent upon international migration to maintain positive net in-migration
Domestic net-migration has turned positive in the 2005 estimates – economic expansion
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
22
Age Wave Trends
School age population boom Is exceeding expectations because of unanticipated immigration and high internal growth of these new populations.Will continue for at least the next ten years.
18-24 year old population Is projected to grow very slowly (at best) for at least the next decade.Is the pipeline to college and the labor force.Is highly mobile.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Women
Attend college at rates that exceed the nation, particularly the native born.Complete degrees at rates that are slightly below those of their national counterparts.Have the highest fertility rates in the nation.
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
23
Utah College Participation Rates
Are declining for the 18-24 populationExplained in part by immigration to Utah
Labor market drivenLower educational attainmentChildren are less likely to complete high school
Participation rates vary by minority statusHighest: Asians followed by white non-HispanicsLowest: Hispanics and American Indians
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Utah Educational Attainment
Exceeds the nation, but varies widely by nativity, sex, and racial / ethnic group
Non-citizen immigrants - very low attainment Males - concentrated at the lowest and highest Females - concentrated in the middle Highest - Asians then white non-Hispanics, multi-race non-Hispanics, African Americans and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders Lowest - Native American and Hispanics (including Mexicans)
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
24
Hispanics
Utah’s largest minority groupRapidly growing – immigration and internal growth
Very high fertility at young agesLow educational attainmentHigh drop-out ratesLow median income – less able to leave labor force and complete education
Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006
Perlich, UofU
Bottom LineUtah will remain relatively young, compared to the nation, but, like the nation, it is aging.The school age population boom is well under way and exceeding projections. With a flat 18 to 24 year old demographic for the next decade, declining college participation rates, and an increasing number of retirees, Utah faces declines in the number of newly college educated persons. This impacts the quality and quantity of the Utah labor force and the competitiveness of the state. Utah is becoming more diverse – culturally and ethnically
Immigration and high fertility rates of immigrants rapid growthGlobalization will continue to be a force
With changing population, conventional approaches based on the “old Utah” no longer fit the new realities.