Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)
Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)
3SAQS Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol Reflecting Reviewer Comments
University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)
July 28, 2014
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Four set of Comments provided on the draft 3SAQS 2011 Modeling Protocol (April 2014)• Responders:– U.S. EPA Region 8
• Gail Tonnesen, Rebecca Matichuk and Robin Coursen
– Mike Barna, NPS– Tammy Thomson, CSU/NPS– Brian Bohlmann, Wyoming DEQ
• Responses discussed on June 19, 2008 Conference Call• Response-to-Comments document dated July 22, 2014• Revised Draft 2011 Modeling Protocol (July 2014)
Revised 3SAQS Draft 2011Modeling Protocol
• Main updates were:– Add description of 3SAQS
2015 Work– More details on MPE– Explanations
• Snow cover albedo• MOZART vs. GEOS-Chem• MEGAN vs. BEIS• PMDETAIL vs. SMARTFIRE
– Clarifications– Typos – Remove citations from
footnotes
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 1.0 Introduction– Numerous language changes– Make clearer that 2011 platform not just for O&G– New Section 1.5.2 and Table 1.2• State Rulemakings that affect O&G Emissions
• 2.0 Model Selection– Made clear that CMAQ is being applied and part
of MPE and FY modeling (3SAQS 2015 SOW)• 3.0 Episode Selection (None)
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 4.0 Domain Selection– Added 4 km plot
• 5.0 WRF Modeling– Winter O3 in 2015 SOW
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 6.0 Emissions– Added justification for:• MEGAN vs. BEIS (Biogenics)• PMDETAIL vs. SMARTFIRE (Fires)
– Questions on SMOKE processing streams and requests for separating specific source categories• Updated Table 6-1 and text to be clearer which source
categories are being processed separately• Response-to-Comments responses to request for each
source category
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 6.0 Emissions– Clarified Figure 6-1
Figure 6-1. List of counties in the three-state study region where targeted emission improvements were made.
3SAQS 4 km Domain
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 6.0 Emissions– Separated discussion of development of 2011 and
2020 O&G emissions like was done for other source categories
– Clarified 2020 O&G projection assumptions:• State-provided – activity growth/decline and no
controls analysis• Survey-based – activity growth/decline and controls
analysis including no turnover assumption when decline
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 7.0 Photochemical Modeling– Will configure CAMx/CMAQ and WRF for winter
ozone event modeling in 3SAQS 2015 SOW• Will include use of high snow cover albedo instead of
average value that is used for regional modeling
– Included new Table 7-2 listing CMAQ model configuration
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation– Ozone performance metrics use 60 ppb threshold– Commit to evaluation for O3/PM precursors• No change, already in Protocol
– Evaluation against NH3 measurements• Added description of AMON network and commit to
use data in evaluation
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation– Vertical Ozone Comparisons
• Protocol already mentions evaluation against ~50 ozonesonde released at Boulder, CO in 2011
• Researching questions regarding 2011 UGEWOS ozone soundings
– Snow Cover and Albedo• Will address in 3SAQS 2015 SOW when analyzing winter ozone
events
– Precipitation and Cloud Cover• Evaluation of WRF for monthly PRISM precipitation completed
– Questions regarding reliability of PRISM for summer convection– Future plans for use of daily PRISM data analysis fields
• Will examine cloud cover for winter ozone events
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Changes in Revised 2011 Modeling Protocol
• 8.0 Model Performance Evaluation– Diagnostic Model Outputs• Diagnostic sensitivity tests addressed in 3SAQS 2015
SOW with input from 3SAQS Technical Committee– Will include BC sensitivity if alternative BCM output available
