Template Template Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Zac Adelman University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, CO May 28, 2013
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Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)
Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Zac Adelman University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, CO May 28, 2013. Purpose. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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TemplateTemplate
Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)
Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph MorrisENVIRON International Corporation
Zac AdelmanUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, COMay 28, 2013
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Purpose• To develop oil and gas emissions for the 2011 year and
the WRAP Phase III Basins plus other areas in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming to support Photochemical Grid Model (PGM) modeling
• To develop future year oil and gas emissions out to 2030 for PGM modeling
• To improve oil and gas emissions for uncertain source categories– For example, fracing, completions and shale oil and gas
• To improve oil and gas emissions for areas in CO, UT and WY outside of the WRAP Phase III Basins– For example, Paradox, Raton and Big Horn Basins
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3SAQS Oil and Gas Emissions Approach• Near-Term – Develop 2011 and Future Year Oil and Gas
(O&G) Emissions by Fall 2013– Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G Emissions Based on Readily
Available Data (Sep 2013)– Phase 1B: Estimate Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions
Based on Readily Available Data (Nov 2013)• Longer-Term – Improve 2011 and Future Year O&G
Emissions (Oct 2013 - Apr 2014)– Phase 2A: Surveys and Other O&G Inventory Refinements– Phase 2B: Refine 2011 O&G Emission Estimates– Phase 3: Refined Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions and
White Paper on Consideration for Improved FY Projections
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Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions • Develop 2011 O&G emissions following Phase III
• Start with CO/UT/WY 2011 state data (“permitted”)– CO APENs data (includes Raton Basin except NM)– UT data unknown (includes Paradox Basin)– WY data reported complete (includes Big Horn Basin)– EPA data for Tribes (minor source reporting?)
• Survey Based Sources starting with 2008 WestJump:– Develop 2008 to 2011 O&G activity scaling factors from IHS
database: spuds, well count, gas, condensate and oil production– Controls analysis similar to WestJumpAQMS (“light”)
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Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (continued)• Colorado Phase III Basins (D-J, Piceance and NSJ)
– Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WestJump based on O&G growth with “light” controls analysis
– Obtain 2011 APEN sources from CDPHE Includes Raton Basin
• Wyoming Phase III Basins (SWWY, Wind River and PRB)– Obtain 2011 O&G emissions from WDEQ that includes
all sources Includes Big Horn Basin
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Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (concluded)
• Utah Phase III Basins (Uinta)– Obtain 2010 data from UT BLM Air Resource
Management Strategy (ARMS) and evaluate data/surveys
– Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WJ– Obtain major and minor permitted source data from
– By Basin by category unit-level– Incorporate data from BLM on resource availability
Review available BLM RFDs/AQTSDs on FY O&G– Review trends forecasts for five surrogates (IHS)– Review other available information on limits of
production/wells/drilling For example, reservoir capacity, regulations, etc. Industry funded studies, states, USGS, etc.
– For well count projections, same split as current well type– Develop growth rates for potential new plays
For example Niobrara (D-J) and Mancos (SSJ) Shale Oil
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Schedule for Task 2013-5 2011 & FY O&G EI
• Assumes a July 1, 2013 start date
• Phase 1A: 2011 O&G EI – Sep 2013• Phase 1B: 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Nov 2013• Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements – Dec 2013• Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G EI – Mar 2014• Phase 3: Refined 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Apr 2014
2013 2014 Deliverable M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G emissions based on readily available data Phase 1B: Estimate future year 2012-2030 O&G emissions based on readily available data
Phase 2A: Surveys and other inventory refinements Phase 2B: Refined 2011 emissions estimates Phase 3: Refined future year 2012-2030 annual emissions estimates