Thomas FreyExecutive Director
DaVinci InstitutePO Box 270315Louisville, CO 80027(303) [email protected]
Leonardo da Vinci
Slide Rule
End of an Era
End of EraBeginning of a New Era
Maximum
Freud
Maximum Freud
• A time when we’ll spend the most time on a couch talking to our shrink
• Tremendous opportunity
• Major chaos
Approaching Maximum Freud
• Fax Machines• Checking Industry• Space Shuttle• Sign Language• Traditional Television• Invasive Surgery• Regular AM-FM Radio• “Drill-n-Fill” Dentistry
The End of Wires
• Home Telephone Lines
• Cable Television Lines
• Power Lines
Question
• What does wireless money look like?
Trends in Innovation
1. The Age of 100 Million Products – Amazon – 1 million books– Software Superstore – 1 million
programs– iTunes – 700K songs– One new grocery store products
introduced every 30 minutes– Domain Names– Google keywords
Trends in Innovation
2. Patent Filings Reach All-Time High– 2004 – 376,810 patents filed– 2004 – 187,170 patents granted– Backlog of 580,000– 27 month average wait
Trends in Innovation
3. The Next Big Thing was Invented Over 25 Years Ago
– The Internet is 35 years old– Cell phone invented in
1973– Breakthrough technologies
take at least a generation to gain a foothold
Trends in Innovation
4. The Great Talent Gap Continues to Grow – Demand for science & engineering skills
growing at 5% per year– Nearly 50% of today’s workforce eligible for
retirement by 2012– IBM - Additional 2.2 million IT workers
needed by 2010
Top 10 Trends in Innovation
5. Time Compression Driving Consumer Behavior
– People spend 2 hours less per night sleeping than in 1920
– 34% of lunches eaten on the run– 66% of people surf the web &
watch TV– 43% have trouble making
decisions from data overload
Trends in Innovation
6. Aging Marketplace Driving Biotech
• People live 2.5 years longer every decade
• U.S. spending $1.7 trillion on health care in 2003
• Expected to reach $3 trillion within 10 years
Trends in Innovation
7. The Long Tail• Fewer and fewer “hit” products• Many new “Long Tail” aggregators• New business theories
Trend Lines
Money Trends
2500 BC - Banking
3200 BC – The Shekel
806 AD – Paper Money
1494 - Double Entry Accounting 1659 – The First Check
1799 – Income Tax
1879 – Cash Register
1887 – Vending Machine
1939 – ATM Machine
1950 – Credit Card
1974 – Smart Card
2002 – Fingerprint Payments
1918 – Electronic Money
Question
• What is the ultimate form of money?
• Will we ever get there?
Strategies for Dealing with a Dead Horse
Strategies for Dealing with a Dead Horse
1. Buy a stronger whip.
2. Appoint a committee to study the horse.
3. Arrange to visit other sites to see how they ride dead horses.
4. Appoint an intervention team to reanimate the dead horse.
5. Reclassify the dead horse as living-impaired.
Strategies for Dealing with a Dead Horse
6. Harness several dead horses together for increased speed.
7. Donate the dead horse to a recognized charity, thereby deducting its full original cost.
8. Form a quality focus group to find profitable uses for dead horses.
9. Promote the dead horse to a supervisory position
The Top Strategy for Dealing with Dead Horses
Click here to pay $.25 to hear the punch line of
this joke
Micropayments
• Micropayments are approaching viability with the computer game industry leading the way.
The Flying Mouse
Gamer Profile
• 53 million Americans play computer games
• The average gamer is 33 years old and earns $81,000
• Last year they spent $1.2 billion on PC games
• 16% of them play at least 3 hours a day
Universal Commerce
• Visa• Sun Microsystems• Phillips• Cisco
Scott ThompsonCTO - Visa
Universal Commerce
Universal Commerce
Universal Commerce
Universal Commerce
Universal Commerce
Universal Commerce
Universal Commerce
• Many New Business Models
• Potentially Greater Profits
• Risk of Fraud Reduced
Criminal Trends
Criminal Trends
Trend # 1
• The Biggest Security Problems Come from Within
Security Trends
• Cyberterrorism is considered a joke
• If you can defend your networks against teenagers, you can defend against terrorists
• Nigerian scams fading• Phishing attacks on the rise.
Phone Phishing to emerge.• Pharming scams on the rise
System Thinking
• Greek Mathematicians– Pythagoras– Archimedes
• Roman Mathematicians– ?
System Thinking
What systems do we employ today that are the equivalent of Roman Numerals?
Trend # 2
• The Income Tax System is on the Verge of Collapse
Exponential Nature of Complexity
Exponential Nature of Complexity
• Tax Code is over 52,000 pages long
• Over 1 trillion transactions per year
• We will soon be unable to compete in the global economy
Top Factors Opening New Bank Accounts
Top Factors Opening New Bank Accounts
Trend # 3
• The Checking Industry is Going Away - Prepaid Debit Cards to Become a Huge Industry
Prepaid Opportunities
• Approx 50 million individuals operate with cash only
• Estimated $840 billion for all ethnic communities, $440 billion by Hispanics.
• Hispanics sent $14 Billion to Latin America last year, paying $1.4 Billion in money transfer fees.
Setting Traps
No More Late Fees
• Competition from NetFlix caused Blockbuster to cancel its late fees
• The same type of competition will cause banks to eliminate most of their penalty fees
Trend # 4
• The End of Penalty Fees
The Fee Backlash
• The online backlash against banking fees is mounting
• The blogging world is growing exponentially, giving an influential voice to consumers
Trend # 5
• Convenience Stores to become a growing competitive threat to the banking industry
V-Com Services
• Conduct ATM transactions• Cash checks• Purchase money orders and
money transfers• Access Verizon residential
telephone services• Pay bills• Purchase phone and stored-
value cards • Buy auto insurance
Squashing the Time Float
• Transaction time and cost is dropping
• Real-time processing is creating new opportunities
Trend # 6
• Introduction of the No-Bounce Bank Account
No-Bounce Advantages
• Greatly expanded market• No credit checks• No delays• Greatly improved
customer relations
Creating New Currencies
Creating New Currencies
• Frequent flier miles now valued at more than all US currency - $700 billion
Creating New Currencies
• Over 5,000 private currencies in circulation
• Swiss Wir operating since 1930s
• Japan is the world’s laboratory for new currencies with over 220 now in place
If the following organizations began issuing their own currency, which would you trust the most?
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Harvard University
Wal-Mart
Llyods of London
Amazon
Wells Fargo Bank
Microsoft
NYSE
CNN
McDonalds
General Motors
eBay
Trend # 7
• Private currencies to replace national currencies in small countries
Complementary Currencies
• Emerging Dual-Currency Systems
• The World’s First Global Trade Reference Currency – The Terra
Trend # 8
• The Coming Credit Card Boom in China
Credit Card Opportunities in China
• Currently, 350,000 domestic merchants (out of est. 10 million) accept credit and debit cards.
• Of the 400 million bank cards issued in China, 40% are inactive, and less than 10% are credit cards.
Trend # 9
• The Return of Early Stage Deals
The Return of Early Stage Deals
• VC money increased to $25 billion in 2004
• Geographical preference to invest locally
• Investments metered out in smaller amounts with milestones to meet
• Time crunched investors
Trend # 10
• Transitioning from a Product-Based Economy to an Experience Based Economy
Experience Vs Products
• Reputations are based on your experiences, not what you own
• Experiences are now valued more than products
• Baby boomers are beginning to shed their belonging
Power Vs. Freedom
“Power is about what you control. Freedom is about what you can unleash.”
-Harriet RubenFounder Doubleday/Currency Book Publisher
Thomas Edison
“Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” -- Thomas Edison
Thomas FreyExecutive Director
DaVinci InstitutePO Box 270315Louisville, CO 80027(303) [email protected]