The Study for The Study for Karachi Transportation Karachi Transportation
Improvement ProjectImprovement ProjectPresentation to Joint Steering CommitteePresentation to Joint Steering Committee
ononthe Interim Reportthe Interim Report
August 1st, 2011August 1st, 2011by Mr. Minoru Shibuya, Team Leaderby Mr. Minoru Shibuya, Team Leader
JICAJICA && KMTC,CDGKKMTC,CDGK
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
ContentsContents• Introduction
• Socio-economic and Landuse
• Traffic Surveys
• Demand Forecast
• Transport Policy
• The Master Plan
• Implementation
IntroductionIntroduction
The JICA StudyThe JICA Study• Study: Master Plan & F/S of Mass Transit
• Start: April 2010
• Traffic Survey: 40,000 household interview October 5th, 2010 – March 1st, 2011
• Demand Forecast in 2030
• Land Use Plan in 2030
• Road Development Plan in 2030
• Mass Transit Development Plan in 2030
Introduction
Study OrganizationStudy Organization
JICAJICA
JICA Study TeamJICA Study Team KMTC, CDGKKMTC, CDGK
Technical CommitteeTechnical Committee
Joint Steering Committee
Joint Steering Committee
Introduction
ScheduleSchedule
Apr
Dec
May JunDec Feb
Apr May JunJanApr Jul Aug Sep20112010
JanNovApr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Mar
May Jun Mar
Oct
FebOct Nov
I/C
Formulation of Planning Framework Establishment of Master Plan & Selection of F/S Project
1. Review ofPolicies,
DevelopmentPlans and Past
Studies
2. Traffic Surveys
3. Analysis on CurrentSituation
4. Formulation ofPlanning
Framework
5. Traffic Demand Forecast
6. Urban Transport Development Policy
7. Urban Transport Master Plan
8. Implementation Framework for Mass TransitDevelopment
IT/R-1
10.ProjectList for
PossibleJICA
Assistance
P/R-1 P/R-2
9. Priority Mass TransitProject
2. Traffic Surveys
Introduction
Major MeetingsMajor MeetingsIntroduction
Meeting Date Venue
Kickoff Meeting April 15, 2010 P&D, GOS
1st Technical Committee May 12, 2010 CDGK
Town Meeting May 14, 2010Camp Office of Administrator, CDGK
1st Joint Steering Committee May 31, 2010 P&D, GOS
2nd Technical Committee October 6, 2010 CDGK
2nd Joint Steering Committee
October 22, 2010 P&D, GOS
3rd Technical Committee February 2, 2011 CDGK
3rd Joint Steering Committee February 8, 2011 P&D, GOS
Major Activity after 3rd TC & JSCMajor Activity after 3rd TC & JSC• Household Interview Survey • HIS Data analysis (36,000 households)• Demand Forecast • Social Environmental Study
Stakeholder Meeting (3 locations) Interview survey along 5 corridors Key informants interview
• Institutional, O&M analysis• Network Finalization• Evaluation
Introduction
Existing Mass Transit PlanExisting Mass Transit PlanIntroduction
Socio-economic and LanduseSocio-economic and Landuse
PopulationPopulation
15.1
18.9
23.1
27.629.7
31.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mil
lio
n
Projection in KSDP 2020
Projection in KSDP 2020
Projection in KTIP
Projection in KTIP
Present Population
Present Population
Socio-economic and Land use
World Metropolitan PopulationWorld Metropolitan Population
34.3
25.1 24.6 24.1 23.5 22.9 22 20.8 20.218.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40T
ok
yo
Gu
an
gzh
ou
Se
ou
l
De
lhi
Mu
mb
ai
Me
xic
o C
ity
Ne
w Y
ork
Sa
o P
au
lo
Ma
nila
Ja
ka
rta
Mil
lio
n
Karachi in 2030
Source: http://www.citypopulation.de/world/Agglomerations.html
Socio-economic and Land use
Karachi in 2010
Future Population DensityFuture Population DensityLand Use New
urbanized areaExisting urbanized area
Urban area Vacant
Residential 200 Status quo 200
Mix residential 100 Status quo 100
Commercial 500 200/ 500/ 1,000/ 1,500
Mix commercial 1,000 Status quo
Institution 50 Status quo
Industrial 25 50
Max industrial 50 200
Warehouse 25 -
Recreation 5 -
Socio-economic and Land use
Land Use Plan in 2030Land Use Plan in 2030
Gadap
Bin Qasim
Keamari
Malir Cannt
Landhi
SITE
Korangi
Gulshan Iqba
Clifton Cant
Baldia
Malir
Orangi
J amshed
Fasial Cantt
Saddar
Gulberg
New Karachi
Lyari
N.Nazimabad
Shah Faisal
Liaquatabad
Korangi Cant
Karachi Cant
Manora Cantt
Legend
Urbanization border
TownUC_boundary
Land Use Plan 2030<all other values>
LU_2030Residential
Residential(Mix)
Commercial
Commercial(Mix)
Warehouse/Whole Sale Marlet
Institution
Recreation
Industrial
Industrial(Mix)
Agricultural
Restricted Area
VAC
Socio-economic and Land use
Traffic SurveysTraffic Surveys
Household Interview SurveyHousehold Interview Survey• Target sample: 40,000 households• Achievement : 36,000 households (90%)
Backlog survey is suspended due to summer vacation
• Delay due to unstable law and order situation
Traffic Surveys
Trip RateTrip Rate• Average trip rate: 1.3
• Female trip rate is very low
Traffic Surveys
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25
-29
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-
male
female
total
Trip Rate
Gender Group
Trip distance and time (average)Trip distance and time (average)• Private mode : 30 min• Public mode: 50 min
• Private mode: 6 km• Bus : 8 km• Rickshaw: 3 km
Traffic Surveys
0.8
2.2
3.2
5.76.3
3.4
5.4
7.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Wal
k
Bic
ycle
Ani
mal
Car
t
Mot
orcy
cle
Car
Tax
i/R
icks
haw
Van
/ S
uzuk
i
Bus
km
1217
23
28 3026
36
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Wal
k
Bic
ycle
Ani
mal
Car
t
Mot
orcy
cle
Car
Tax
i/R
icks
haw
Van
/ S
uzuk
i
Bus
Minues
Willingness-to-Pay InterviewWillingness-to-Pay InterviewTraffic Surveys
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
No use Rs. 30 Rs. 40 Rs. 60 Rs. 80 Rs. 100
20min by LRT against 20min by minbus at Rs.15
Bus Passengers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
No use Rs. 30 Rs. 40 Rs. 60 Rs. 80 Rs. 100
20min by LRT against 20min by minibus at Rs.15
Rickshaw Passengers
20 minutesRs. 15
20 minutesRs. ?
Trips by ModeTrips by Mode
805711090 12581
2194
31233608
4088
60317018
5598
8772
10075
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2010 2020 2030
Per
son
Tri
ps
(1,0
00)
Bus
Car
Motorcycle
Walk
Traffic Surveys
Do-Nothing Case in 2030Do-Nothing Case in 2030Traffic Surveys
Legend
Volume
150,000 PCUs
V/C
0 - 0.75
0.75 - 1
1 - 1.2
1.2 - 1.5
1.5 -
Transport PolicyTransport Policy
Goals and VisionGoals and VisionTransport Policy
• Travel in Karachi is no longer stressful.
• Transport capacity satisfies the demand.
• Mass transit is operated.• Road traffic is safe.• Bus service is available in
entire Karachi• Road supports economy
with minimum environmental impact.
Goals/ Vision
Objectives/ Policies
Projects/ Programs
Development PolicyDevelopment Policy• Support the urban development to formulate
the future land use plan
• Enhance the corridors toward development directions
• Effective balance of between road and mass transit in transport sector investment
Transport Policy
Support the Urban DevelopmentSupport the Urban Development
Unit: 000
Population 2010 - 2030
Gadap Town
Bin Qasim TownKeamari Town
Transport Policy
3,078
537
762 518
2010 2020 2030
5,060
2,2902,0322,697
1,914
Enhance the CorridorsEnhance the CorridorsTransport Policy
Effective Balance between Road and Mass TransitEffective Balance between Road and Mass Transit
Transport Policy
CBD
Urbanized Area
New Development Area
Road Development in New Development Area
Mass TransitDevelopmentBetween CBD& Suburban
Road Network PolicyRoad Network Policy• Network development based on KSDP 2020
• Road construction for suburban development
• The 29 Corridors: signal-free corridor
• Ring Roads: Development of Outer Ring Road
• Access to New Cities Construction of Malir Expressway
Transport Policy
Public Transport PolicyPublic Transport Policy• Introduction of mass transit system of higher
level of services than existing buses• Win-win relationship between mass transit
system and the existing buses• KCR development as a Mass Rapid Transit
System• Rail-base mass transit system along priority
corridors to connect the CBD and the suburban area.
• Introduction of Bus Rapid Transit on major roads.
Transport Policy
Mass Transit Network DevelopmentMass Transit Network DevelopmentTransport Policy
Public Transport Development CorridorPublic Transport Development Corridor
Test NetworkTest Network
Full NetworkFull Network
Master Plan NetworkMaster Plan Network
Ideality
necessity
reality
Public Transport Development CorridorPublic Transport Development Corridor
• 9 radial corridors & 2 circulars identified from development policy
Transport Policy
Test NetworkTest NetworkTransport Policy
Full NetworkFull NetworkTransport Policy
Master Plan NetworkMaster Plan NetworkTransport Policy
The Master PlanThe Master Plan
Road Project MapRoad Project Map
R-39
R-1
0
R-24
R-26
0 1 2 3 40.5km
Major Roads by Road Type
0 5 10 15 202.5Km
±
New Expressway
New Highway
New Principal Arterial
New Minor Arterial
Railway
Expressway
Highway
Principal Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector Street
The Master Plan
Road ProjectsRoad Projects• Expressway
Completion of Lyari Expressway (10km) Construction of Malir Expressway (41km)
• Highway Outer Ring Road (80km) and others
• Arterial Road Access Road to Pakistan Deep Water Container
Port and others (33 projects 306km)
• Overpass, traffic signal, new city road, parking, truck terminal
The Master Plan
Legend
Volume150,000 PCUs
V/C0 - 0.75
0.75 - 1
1 - 1.2
1.2 - 1.5
1.5 -
Impact of Road Projects in 2030Impact of Road Projects in 2030The Master Plan
Legend
Volume150,000 PCUs
V/C0 - 0.75
0.75 - 1
1 - 1.2
1.2 - 1.5
1.5 -
Do-Nothing in 2030
With Road Projects in 2030
Public Transport ProjectsPublic Transport Projects• KCR (43.1km) and Extension (14.5 km)• Railway (Elevated LRT)
Blue Line (Tower- Super Highway): 22.4km Brown Line (Nagan Chowk - Landhi): 18.5km
• BRT (surface) Green Line (KMTS Corridor-3) Red Line (University Road) Yellow Line (Korangi Industrial Area) Aqua Line (Hawks bay Road) Purple Line (KMTS Corridor-6) Orange Line (KMTS Corridor-3 branch)
The Master Plan
Passenger Volume 2030Passenger Volume 2030The Master Plan
Maximum Section per directionBoarding per day ‘000
Passenger-km (million per day)Day Peak
KCR 290,000 21,700 505 16.3
KCR Extension 412,000 30,900 487 8.7
Blue Line 357,000 27,000 661 10.9
Brown Line 286,000 21,500 736 8.8
Yellow Line 235,000 17,600 653 6.0
Green Line 244,000 18,300 432 4.9
Red Line 144,000 10,800 355 4.0
Orange Line 247,000 18,500 397 2.2
Purple Line 53,000 4,000 83 0.6
Aqua Line 330,000 24,700 449 2.2
Legend
Volume150,000 PCUs
V/C0 - 0.75
0.75 - 1
1 - 1.2
1.2 - 1.5
1.5 -
Impact of Master PlanImpact of Master PlanLegend
Volume
150,000 PCUs
V/C
0 - 0.75
0.75 - 1
1 - 1.2
1.2 - 1.5
1.5 -
Do-Nothing in 2030
Master Plan in 2030
The Master Plan
Cost EstimateCost EstimateThe Master Plan
Type System Cost (Rs. Billion)
Railway
KCR 172.0
KCR-Extension 51.2
Blue-Line 168.6
Brown-Line 106.9
Sub total 498.6
BRT Surface transit 21.0
Road 170.9
Total 690.5
KCR (43.1km)KCR (43.1km)The Master Plan
Rail-base SystemRail-base System
Tokyo
Tokyo
Bangkok
Delhi
The Master Plan
BRTBRT
PPP-Study cover
Istanbul
Curitiba
The Master Plan
ImplementationImplementation
Short-term ProposalShort-term Proposal
- Modernization of Bus Fleet- Increase in the number of buses
- Modernization of Bus Fleet- Increase in the number of buses
- Introduction of BRT- Introduction of BRT
- Introduction of MRT- Introduction of MRT
11
22
33
Implementation
InstitutionalCapacity
Short-term NetworkShort-term NetworkImplementation
F/S Project - BackgroundF/S Project - Background• JICA will support KCR by technical
corporation and soft loan. KCR is a large project for JICA, and requires a
large scale resources including man power.
• Underground has been proposed for MRT, which increase the cost. MRT is difficult to be implemented in parallel with
KCR.
• MRT is a 10 year project (the city cannot wait)• Step-by-step capacity development from small
project is proposed for the transit authority.
Implementation
Economic Analysis (Railway Case)Economic Analysis (Railway Case)Implementation
Line as MRT EIRR
Green Line 11.8%
Blue Line 12.4%
Red Line 10.9%
Brown Line 12.9%
Yellow Line 10.0%
* Without case: KCR and its Extension
F/S ProjectF/S Project• Green Line
Surjani - Board Office (12.7km) Additional study section
• Board Office – Guru Mandir (5.8 km)
• Red Line University Road – Malir Town (19.1km) Additional study section
• Mazar Area – Jahangir Park
• Blue Line (preliminary analysis) Short-term measures until MRT construction
Implementation
BRT Example: Trans JakartaBRT Example: Trans Jakarta
Exclusive Busway
Station
BRT LaneRoadway
Implementation
Karachi Transportation Karachi Transportation Improvement ProjectImprovement Project
June 23th, 2011June 23th, 2011
Thank you very much!Thank you very much!