The NEEDS-TIMES models to support the definition of strategies for the
security of energy supply
SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1]
[ Sustainable Energy Systems]
C. Cosmi, V. Cuomowith the contribution of
Blesl M., Kypreos S., Van Regemorter D., Ahlgren E., Assoumou E., Bruchof D., Caldés N., Cleto J., De Miglio R., Di Leo S., Gargiulo M.,
Giannakidis G., Grohnheit P. E., Kanudia A., Kober T., Krook Riekkola A., , Labriet M., Lavagno E., Lechon Y., Lehtila A., Loperte S., Loulou R.,
Macchiato M., Pietrapertosa F., Pursiheimo E., Salvia M.
NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues
5-6 July, Krakow (Poland)
This presentation
The problem
NEEDS and the RS2a
The Scenarios for NEEDS
Some results
Conclusions and further developments
EU-30 – Dependence according to energy product
Source: European Commission
The problem
Trends in the European Union:
An increase of energy consumption not balanced by an adequate production
increasing external dependence of energy products (actually imports 50% of its energy requirements but it could rise to 70% within the next 20 to 30 years if no measures are taken)
structural weaknesses of energy supply
It is necessary to introduce a strategy of security aimed at reducing the risks: Economic (steady rise in oil prices) Social Ecological (damages caused by the energy supply system: accidental or related to emissions of pollutants) Physical
Community dimension of energy policies to manage the interdipendency of Member States to:
combat climate changecomplete the internal market
The Green Paper"Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply"
of 29 November 2000 [COM(2000) 769]
•“… to ensure the uninterrupted physical availability of energy products on the market at an affordable price for all consumers, whilst respecting environmental concerns”
• to reduce the risks linked to energy dependency (specially regarding fossil fuels such as petroleum - the dominant resource)
• to rebalance EU supply policy by clear action in favour of a demand policy, aimed at controlling its growth by encouraging a real change in consumer behaviour through, for example, taxation measures.
• to combat global warming with regard to supply, promoting new renewable energy sources for example, financing their development with financially viable energy.
• to provide a stronger mechanism to build up strategic stocks and to foresee new import routes for increasing amounts of oil and gas.
Objective of a long-term energy strategy:
Modelling Pan European Energy Scenarios in the NEEDS Project
Overall objective of the project:
To evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole.
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RS2a Objectives:Generate the energy
models of 28 EU countries, linked by energy and emissions trades that constitute the basis of the multi-region NEEDS Pan EU model.
Integrate LCA and Externalities into the NEEDS Pan EU model.
Define a baseline and a selection of policy scenarios to assess key energy and environment issues in Europe
User Interfaces VEDA-FE (Front End) VEDA-BE (Back-End)
Methodology Bottom-up Model Perfect competition Perfect foresight Optimisation (LP)
Minimimum cost solution Linear objective function and
Constraints Techno economic and
environmental input parameters
Models Development The 29 EU country
models The NEEDS TIMES Pan
European model
TIMESTIMES
The Integrated Markal Efom The Integrated Markal Efom SystemsSystems
FEATURES Implementation in GAMS Regional Resolution Elastic demands Vintaging Multiperiodal Load curves
Source: IMAA elaboration on slide from M. Blesl (IER)
The modelling framework
Main features of the NEEDS-TIMES models
Long term time horizon (2000-2050, by 5-year step), to take into account different standards of energy devices and technologies development high technological detail, in energy supply and end-use sectors full representation of all energy vectors included in the detailed energy balances break down of demands for energy services
Cost balance
Emissions balance
Net production-
value
Process energy
space heatingArea
Person
Light
Communication
Force
Personal-kilometres
Tonne-kilometres
Demand
Coalrefining
Refinery
Power plant andGrid
CHPand
District Heat
Gas pipelines
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Transport
End energyPrimary Energy
Inlandproduction
Import
Dem
and
value
s
En
erg
y c
arri
er
pri
ces,
R
eso
urc
es
ava
ilab
ilit
y
pricecapacities
Energy flowEmission
costCost balance
Emissions balance
Net production-
value
Process energy
space heatingArea
Person
Light
Communication
Force
Personal-kilometres
Tonne-kilometres
Demand
Net production-
value
Process energy
space heatingArea
Person
Light
Communication
Force
Personal-kilometres
Tonne-kilometres
Demand
Coalrefining
Refinery
Power plant andGrid
CHPand
District Heat
Gas pipelines
Coalrefining
Refinery
Power plant andGrid
CHPand
District Heat
Gas pipelines
Coalrefining
Refinery
Power plant andGrid
CHPand
District Heat
Gas pipelines
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Transport
End energy
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Transport
End energy
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Transport
End energyPrimary Energy
Inlandproduction
Import
Inlandproduction
Import
Dem
and
value
s
En
erg
y c
arri
er
pri
ces,
R
eso
urc
es
ava
ilab
ilit
y
Dem
and
value
s
En
erg
y c
arri
er
pri
ces,
R
eso
urc
es
ava
ilab
ilit
y
pricecapacities
Energy flowEmission
cost
Schematic representation of the Reference Energy System
(Source: M. Blesl, IER – University of Stuttgart)
The NEEDS Pan EU Model Structure
Pan European
TIMES Model
Additional
DD-files
Base Year
Templates
SubRes
New TechsScenariofiles
ELC
RCA
IND
TRA
Demand
Projection
x-base
Zyssettings
UC scenarios
pumpstg
ELC_peak
SUP Trade scenarios
Other
Scenario files
com_bndnet
Scenario
constrains
ELC
RCA
IND
TRA
SUP
(Source: IER)
evaluation of policies at technology level both on country level and EU wide perspective capability of analysing the impacts of different policies and price mechanisms (such as different tax or subsidy schemes for commodities and technologies) capability of evaluating the expected long-term results of LCA scenario analysis
The NEEDS TIMES models
The Pan-EU model is more than the sum of the 28 national models as it allows to impose constraints at the European level that “coordinate” policies across borders.
The model allows both Pan-EU policy evaluation together with the analysis of fragmented national policies and it is thus appropriate in evaluating the benefits of cooperation.
The Scenarios for the Pan-EU model
Policy scenarios: Environmental issues linked to energy use
A Post-Kyoto climate policy to stabilize CO2 concentrations below 450 ppmv following the EU COM (2007)2 Air Quality Policies
Energy policies aiming at reducing the EU-dependency on energy imports
Enhancement of endogenous energy resources
Reference scenario (Baseline): all exogenous assumptions around drivers, energy prices
and policies follow a BAU trend (GEM-E3 model). macroeconomic and energy price background
assumptions are in line with the latest DG TREN projections.
no specific climate policies such as to allow a proper evaluation of Kyoto and post Kyoto targets.
country decisions implemented for nuclear .
Enhancement of endogenous energy resources
Reduce import dependence on oil and gas by introducing constraints on imports as fraction of primary energy use. This will increase the use of
renewables, energy efficiency and conservation, biomass for bio-fuels and eventually hydrogen
production advanced nuclear for those countries they want to
keep this option
Based on conclusions, propose standards on renewables and efficiency and make recommendations for the use of nuclear energy.
Identify for EU the importance of “Strategic partnerships” for oil and gas imports and propose policy options for “Strategic reserves”
Some Results
Multi country runs: the NEEDS Pan-European model preliminary results
Enhancements of endogenous resources: The Italy case study.
Multi country runs:
the NEEDS Pan-European model
preliminary results
Primary energy consumption
Multi country runs
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2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Pri
ma
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rgy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Electricityimport
Waste
Otherrenewables
Hydro, wind,photovoltaic
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
PAN
European
model
On the full time horizon the total increase of consumption is about 30 % with:
Coal +52%
Natural gas +28%
Oil +10 %
Net energy import
Multi country runs
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Net
imp
ort
[P
J]
Bio fuel
Hydrogen
Electricityimport
Nuclear
Naturalgas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
PAN
European
model
Net imports increase 89 % on overall with:
Natural gas increasing from 5563 PJ to 18519 PJ
Oil increasing from 15988 PJ to 32067 PJ
Coal increasing from 6765 PJ to 10992 PJ
Net electricity generation
Multi country runs (source: IER)
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Net
ele
ctri
city
[T
Wh
]
Others
Solarphotovoltaic
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
PAN
European
model Net electricity production increase: 59 % (net installed capacity in 2050 of 1360 GW).
The technology share in 2050 is:
Natural gas 22 % (with an increasing contribution of gas fuelled CHPs)
Coal+ lignite 26 %
Oil 1%
Nuclear 28 %
Hydro 14%
Wind 5%
Other renewables 4%
Final energy consumption – All sectors
Multi country runs
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To
tal f
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en
erg
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nsu
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
PAN
European
model
There is a 36% increase on the full time horizon (from 46997 PJ to 64124 PJ) with an increase of:
RPPs + 8%
Natural gas +18%
Electricity +62%
Coal +162%
Renewable +116%
Final energy consumption - Industry
Multi country runs
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Fin
al e
ner
gy
co
nsu
mp
tio
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nd
us
try
[PJ]
Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
PAN
European
model
Coal is the most used fuel, its share increases from 17% to 36%
Electricity use increases from 28 % to 30%
Waste share in 2050 is about 2%
Final energy consumption Residential
Multi country runs
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Fin
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
Res
iden
tial
[P
J]
Others (Methanol,Hydrogen, DME)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
PAN
European
model There is a 15% increase on the full time horizon (from 12052 PJ to 13809
PJ) with an increase of:
Renewable +62% (representing 14% of households consumption in 2050)
Electricity use +42% (representing 26% of households consumption in 2050)
Natural gas +20% (representing 39% of households consumption in 2050)
RPPs (Oil) - 21% (representing 14% of households consumption in 2050)
Final energy consumption - Transport
Multi country runs
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2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Fin
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
Tra
nsp
ort
[P
J]
Others(Methanol,Hydrogen, DME)Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
PAN
European
model Transport consumption on the full time horizon increase 26%, oil
products representing more than the 90% of consumption.
Gas consumption is negligible at year 2000 becoming 312 PJ in 2050 (2%), whereas Methanol and Hydrogen (Others), are being used from 2010 and their contribution in 2050 accounts for 1% of the transport energy demand.
Total CO2 emission
Multi country runs
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Em
iss
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s o
f C
O2
[M
io t
] Transport
Households,commercial, AGR
Industry
Conversion,production
PAN
European
model
Carbon dioxide CO2 emissions increase 29% on overall. In 2050 the contribution of the different sectors is:
Conversion 26% (+7%)
Industry 34% (+88%)
Transport 23% (+14%),
Households 17% (+ 11%)
A country model: The Italian case
study
BAU scenario assumptions: ItalySUPPLY
No nuclear power plants will be installed according to the outcomes of 1987 national abrogative referendum
PV target: 1000 MW of new plants within 2015 (Ministerial Decree of 6 February 2006)
RES potential for 2008-2012 according to the Italian White Paper:
Wind on-shore: 2 500 MW
Mini-hydroelectric power plants: 3 000 MW
Geothermal: 800 MW
Waste: 800 MW
DEMAND
Transport sector: implementation of the national consumption of biofuels and other renewable fuels as follows (D.Lgs.128/2005):
1.0 % within 20052.5 % within 2010
Residential sector: set up of 3 000 000 m2 of solar collectors within 2010 (according to the White Paper)
Italy
A country model
Primary energy consumption
On the full time horizon the total increase of consumption is about 21% (oil decrease -13%) with the following share in 2050:
Natural gas 41%
Oil 36%
Coal+14%
Other renewables 7% in 2050)
Electricity 2%
Italy
A country model
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ne
rgy
Co
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um
pti
on
[P
J]
Electricityimport
Waste
Otherrenewables
Hydro, wind,photovoltaic
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
Net energy import
A country model
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2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Net
imp
ort
[P
J]
Bio fuel
Hydrogen
Electricityimport
Nuclear
Naturalgas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
Large dependence by Natural gas, Coal and Oil imports. On the overall time horizon:
Coal import increase + 97%
Gas import increase + 74%
Oil import decrease - 4%
Italy
Fuel consumption - All sectorsItaly
A country model
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To
tal
fin
al
en
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
There is a 37% increase on the full time horizon (from 5698 to 7784 PJ) with an increase of:
Natural gas +47% (representing 32% of consumption in 2050)
Electricity use +39% (representing 18% of consumption in 2050)
RPPs + 7% (representing 32% of consumption in 2050)
Heat, Coal and Renewables increase more than 100% representing respectively 7%, 6%, 2% of final energy consumption in 2050.
Methanol and Hydrogen accounts for 1% of FEC in 2050.
Enhancement of endogenous resources: the Italy case study
The scenarios:
GAS30: 30% reduction of natural gas import in 2010 and 2050
OIL20: 20% reduction of oil products import in 2010 and 2050
OIL15_GAS20: 15% reduction of oil products import and 20% reduction of gas in 2010 and 2050
DAMAGE: damage costs on local pollutant emissions and CO2 (provisional values, to be revised)
Damage factors were applied to emissions from combustion already included in the model
Damage costsReferences:
*Holland M. & P. Watkiss. BeTa – Benefits Table database: Estimates of the marginal external costs of air pollution in Europe. Version E1.02a. Created for European Commission DG Environment by netcen, 1999(http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/enveco/air/betaec02a.pdf)
** ExternE Exernalities of Energy Methodology 2005 Update Edited by P. Bickel and R. Friedrich Published by Directorate General for Reserach Sustainable Energy Systems, EUR 21951, ISBN 92-79-00423-9 (2005)
Damage costs(Euro/ton pollutant)
NOX* TSP*
SO2*
VOC*
CO2 **
Values from literature 7100 12000 5000 2800 19
Damage costs(Euro/ton pollutant) NOX1 PM101 SO21 VOC1 CO2 2
Italy case study 16000 97000 18000 3500 139
Source:1 D. Van Regemorter- Internal working paper
2Hamacher T., et al. Fusion Engineering and Design. Issue 56-57 pp 95.103, 2001.
Trade-off curve: Natural gas
4850
4855
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4880
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To
tal
dis
cou
nte
d c
ost
(kE
uro
)
-10%
Import of gas
-20%
-30%
increase of the total discounted system cost: 1%
Natural gas cost: 3.84 kEuro/PJ (2005)
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To
tal d
isco
un
ted
co
st (
kEu
ro)
Trade off curves: oil
-10%
Import of oil
-20%
7% increase of the total discounted system cost
Oil cost: 6.51 kEuro/PJ (2005)
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Pri
mar
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ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
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n (
oil
) [P
J]
BAU OIL20 GAS30 OIL15GAS20 DAMAGE
Primary energy consumption by scenario
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nat
ura
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as)
[PJ]
BAU OIL20 GAS30 OIL15GAS20 DAMAGE
Natural gas Oil
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Pri
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ren
ewab
le+
was
te)
[PJ]
BAU OIL20 GAS30 OIL15GAS20 DAMAGE
Renewable
- Natural gas consumption increases in OIL20 and Damage
- Oil is substituted by natural gas when damage costs are considered
- Renewable (including waste) consumption increase when fossil fuels use is constrained (OIL15_GAS20 scenario)
Natural gas
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ne
t Im
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(oil
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J]
BAU OIL20 GAS30 OIL15GAS20 DAMAGE
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Net
Im
po
rt (
nat
ura
l g
as)
[P
J]
BAU OIL20 GAS30 OIL15GAS20 DAMAGE
Net imports by scenario
Natural gas
Oil
- natural gas import increases in OIL_20 and DAMAGE
- the introduction of damage factor determines a reduction of oil import but seems to have no effect on gas imports
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DAMAGE OIL20 BAU GAS30 OIL15GAS20
To
tal
PM
10
em
iss
ion
s 2
00
0-2
05
0 [
Mto
n]
Emissions
PM10 emissions
CO2 emissions
- PM10 emissions decrease considering the damage factors (DAMAGE scenario)
- CO2 emissions decrease only decreasing the fossil fuel consumptions (OIL15_GAS20 scenario)
The optimisation of consumption in the BAU scenario allows decreasing both the emissions of PM10 and CO2.
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GAS30 DAMAGE BAU OIL20 OIL15GAS20
To
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CO
2 em
issi
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s 20
00-2
050
[Mto
n]
Conclusions
The results shown are far from providing unquestionable solutions but should be regarded as a first step toward the implementation of the integration process, pointing out the main problems to be faced with.
It is necessary to:
consider different scenarios of fossil fuels prices evolution. examine in more details the different sectors, providing a quite large portfolio of technologies by sectors to obtain cost- effective solutions.agree on data and assumptions, among the different methodologies, in order to set up interchangeable harmonized sets of data and produce coherent resultsPerform a sensitivity analysis of results.
Social acceptability is a fundamental parameter that should be considered for deriving and implementing the policy measures.
Conclusions
The NEEDS – TIMES modeling framework constitutes a powerful tool for comprehensive quantitative analyses and modeling internalization strategies, that allows to integrate into an unique modeling platform inputs coming from other methodologies (in particular LCA and ExternE) and is suited to support the formulation of long-term energy, environmental and economic policies both at national and Pan-European level.
It is nevertheless necessary to harmonize the data input and outputs among the different methodologies in order to perform convergent iterative evaluation that could improve the response of each of them.
The nature of models, the large uncertainties of the data and the changing boundary conditions lead to a continuous update of data and software, so that the results should be even regarded as the “best possible” with the available data and the considered boundary conditions.
Work in progress ……
Revision of the assumptions regarding technology characterisation and damage costs
Statistical comparison of country results – BAU Scenario (Multivariate Data Analysis techniques are being applied, cluster analysis is in progress)
Integration of updated generalised damage factors and LCA data in the Pan EU model
Scenario analysis at Pan EU level with focus on key energy-environmental policy issues
Thank you for your attention!
Additional slides
The scenarios: final configuration
1. Reference BAU Scenario (Baseline) which basic assumptions were adapted to the latest DGTREN projections. For nuclear the country decisions have been implemented.
2. Post-Kyoto climate policy to stabilize CO2 concentrations below 450 ppmv following the EU COM (2007)2 (one scenario without variants) with the Kyoto climate policy implemented.
3. Enhancement of endogenous energy resources, (constraining imports of fossil fuels to foster the use of renewables, efficiency standards and new nuclear)
4. Improvement of environmental quality by indigenizing externalities related to local air pollution (i.e., w/o global externalities)
Scenario variants
Two variants could be investigated:
A crisis scenario under moderate economic growth and pessimistic technological change assumptions to check for robust but conservative technological options.
A case of improved environmental quality by endogenizing externalities related to local air pollution and global externalities to assess synergies.
Electricity generation capacity
Multi country runs
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Net
ele
ctri
city
cap
acit
y [
GW
]
Others
Solarphotovoltaic
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
PAN
European
model
Fuel input - electricity generation
Multi country runs
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Fuel
Inpu
t [PJ
]
Others
Solarphotovoltaic
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
PAN
European
model
Final energy consumption - Commercial
Multi country runs
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2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Fin
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
Co
mm
erci
al [
PJ]
Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
PAN
European
model
Final energy consumption in agriculture
Multi country runs
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2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Fin
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
Ag
ricu
ltu
re [
PJ]
Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
PAN
European
model