CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008 The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES model SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems] Markus Blesl.

CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008

The The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES Pan European NEEDS-TIMES

modelmodel

SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1]

[ Sustainable Energy Systems]

Markus BleslFirst CEEH Energy Externality Workshop

Roskilde, Denmark, February 6, 2008


Objective of NEEDSThe ultimate objective of the NEEDS Integrated Project is to evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole.

From the scientific and technological viewpoint, this entails major advancements in the current state of knowledge in the following main areas of:• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies• Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy

production, transport, conversion and use• Integration of LCA and externalities information into

policy formulation and scenario building• Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), which allows

examining the robustness of the proposed technological solutions in view of stakeholder preferences.


Structure of NEEDS SOCIO-ECONOMIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS

+ INITIAL TECHNICAL DATA(RS2a + input from Other Streams)

TECHNOLOGYDATABASE

(ALL STREAMS)

LIFE CYCLEDATA(RS1a)

COHERENT ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY & TRADE PATHWAYS (RS2a)

OTHER INDICATORS, SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE, MCDA (RS2b)

EXTERNALITIES(RS1b, RS1c)

Source: Richard Loulou 3rd Integration Meeting


Objectives of the Modeling part in NEEDS

To generate via The Integrated MARKAL- EFOM System (TIMES) partial equilibrium technology rich economic models of each Member State and of the EU as a whole (Pan-European model), including the most important emissions, materials, and damage functions used by LCA and ExternE, in their long term development.

To compare scenarios that simulate various policy approaches (setting thresholds for CO2 emission, renewables penetration, etc.) using the key base data received form the other streams to calculate equilibrium quantities and prices.


ETSAP

IEA (International Energy Agency)

Implementing Agreement Implementing Agreement

Implementing Agreements

Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP)

Technology oriented analysis of energy system modelswith focus on greenhouse gas abatement strategies:

- Analysis of national and multinational strategies- Technology data review- Model development (MARKAL, TIMES)

Operating Agent

www.etsap.org

Outreach


FeaturesRegionsElastic demandsVintagingInter-temporalLoad curveEndogeneous technological learningDiscrete capacity expansion

Future Features• NLP (experience curves,

macroeconomic linkage)• Stochastic Programming• MCP (Multi-agent model)

TOOLS• ANSWER,

ABARE• VEDA, GERAD• HALOA, GERAD

Applications (IER)• TIMES-BY• TIMES-GES• TIMES-D• TIMES-EE• TIMES-World

Methodology• Bottom-up Model• Perfect competition• Perfect foresight• Optimisation (LP)

Min/Max Objective functions.t.Equations, ConstraintsDecision Variables <=> SolutionInput parameters

Development• The Integrated MARKAL EFOM

System• By ETSAP• Implementation in GAMS• Model generator

TIMESTIMES


Basic structure of energy system models

Cost balance

Emissions balance

Net production-

value

Process energy

space heatingArea

Person

Light

Communication

Force

Personal-kilometres

Tonne-kilometresDemand

Coalrefining

Refinery

Power plant andGrid

CHPand

District Heat

Gas pipelines

Industry

Commercial

Domestic

Transport

End energyPrimary Energy

Inlandproduction

Import

Dem

and

values

En

erg

y ca

rrie

r p

rice

s,

Res

ou

rces

ava

ilab

ilit

yprice

cost

Energy flow

Emission

capacities


29 region model (EU 25 + Ro, No, CH, IS)Energy system model

SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion Country specific renewable potential and availability (onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro)

Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants

Residential and Commercial: All end use technologies (space heating, water heating, space cooling and others)

Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminium copper ammonia and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), other industries , autoproducer and boilers

Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation

Country specific differences for characterisation of new conversion and end-use technologies Time horizon 2000-2050GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10

Characterization of the Pan-European TIMES model


The modelling team of the country models

Finland

Germany, Austria, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Poland +

Bulgaria

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia

Denmark

Switzerland

UK

Belgium, Luxembourg, France

Slovenia

Italy

Romania

The Netherlands, Ireland

Greece, Malta, Cyprus

Spain, Portugal

Sweden, Norway, Iceland

Member State Model (MSM)

Antti LehtilaFINVTT

Markus BleslDUSTUTT

N.N.ESTTTU

Poul Erik GrohnheitDKRISOE

Socrates KypreosCHPSI

Evasio LavagnoIPOLITO

Denise van RegemorterBKUL

Amit KanudiaFKANLO

Antonio SoriaEJRC

Maria MacchiatoIINFM

Vincenzo CuomoIIMAA-CNR

Anka Mihaela TuhaiROENERO

Koen SmekensNLECN

George GiannakidisGRCRES

Yolanda LechonECIEMAT

Erik AhlgrenSwCHALMERS

Contact personCountryInstitution

Finland

Germany, Austria, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Poland +

Bulgaria

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia

Denmark

Switzerland

UK

Belgium, Luxembourg, France

Slovenia

Italy

Romania

The Netherlands, Ireland

Greece, Malta, Cyprus

Spain, Portugal

Sweden, Norway, Iceland

Member State Model (MSM)

Antti LehtilaFINVTT

Markus BleslDUSTUTT

N.N.ESTTTU

Poul Erik GrohnheitDKRISOE

Socrates KypreosCHPSI

Evasio LavagnoIPOLITO

Denise van RegemorterBKUL

Amit KanudiaFKANLO

Antonio SoriaEJRC

Maria MacchiatoIINFM

Vincenzo CuomoIIMAA-CNR

Anka Mihaela TuhaiROENERO

Koen SmekensNLECN

George GiannakidisGRCRES

Yolanda LechonECIEMAT

Erik AhlgrenSwCHALMERS

Contact personCountryInstitution


Electricity structure in the PAN-European Model

...

~ grid cost medium ~ cost for distributionvoltage grid plus according to grid

~ grid cost high H-M transformer ~ grid cost low tariffs of the certain voltage grid voltage grid plus demand group

M-L transformer

~ modelling of pumpstorage process hereonly scematic

INDELC00

COMELC00

TRAELC00

GenerationDecentralized

Generation LOW VOLTAGE

Export

RSDELCINDELC

COMELC

RSDELC00

TRAELC

Import

ELCHIGG

EVTRANS_H-M

Generation

ELCHIG

EVTRANS_H-H

Pump Storage

ELCMED

EVTRANS_M-L

ELCLOW


The Pan-European TIMES model- Linking the countries together by

electricity exchange


Scenario analysis - The Key Policy Cases in the NEEDS Project

1. Specification of the Baseline case (BAU)

2. Post-Kyoto climate policy to stabilize CO2e concentrations at 440 ppmv (CO2)

3. Enhancement of endogenous energy resources, (constraining imports of fossil fuels to foster the use of renewables, efficiency standards and new nuclear)

4. Improve environmental quality by endogenizing externalities related to local air pollution ( i.e., w/o global externalities)

+

SENTECH

Today


Total CO2 emission in the EU 27

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n i

n [

Mio

t]

Transport

Households,commercial,AGR

Industry

Conversion,production


Total final energy consumption EU 27

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

To

tal

fin

al e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

[P

J]

Others(Methanol,Hydrogen)

Waste

Renewables

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Petroleumproducts

Coal


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

Fin

al e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

Ind

ust

ry [

PJ]

Others(Methanol,Hydrogen)

Waste

Renewables

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Petroleumproducts

Coal

Total final energy consumption industry EU 27


Total final energy consumption transport EU27

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

Fin

al e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

Tra

nsp

ort

[P

J]

Others(Methanol,Hydrogen, DME)

Waste

Renewables

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Petroleumproducts

Coal


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

Fin

al e

ner

gy

co

nsu

mp

tio

n R

esi

de

nti

al [

PJ]

Others(Methanol,Hydrogen, DME)

Waste

Renewables

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Petroleumproducts

Coal

Total final energy consumption residential EU27


Net electricity generation in TWh

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

Ne

t e

lec

tric

ity

[T

Wh

]Others

Solarphotovoltaic

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal


Net electricity generation in TWh

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ne

t e

lec

tric

ity

[T

Wh

]Others

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal


Net electricity generation capacity in [GW]

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

Net

ele

ctri

city

cap

acit

y [

GW

]

Others

Solarphotovoltaic

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal


Net electricity generation capacity in [GW]

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

BA

U

CO

2

CO

2 S

EN

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ne

t el

ect

rici

ty c

apa

city

[G

W]

Others

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal


Net electricity generation capacity by technologies in [GW]

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

Inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

in

[M

W]

Fuel Cell Wave Tidal Hot Dry Rock Steam Turbine Thermal Photovoltaics Offshore Onshore Pump Storage Dam Storage Run of river Fuel Cell Internal Combustion Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Steam Turbine IGCC Steam Turbine Generation 4 Generation 2 and 3 Fuel Cell Internal Combustion Combined Cycle CO2 Seq. Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Steam Turbine Internal Combustion Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Steam Turbine IGCC CO2 Seq. IGCC Steam Turbine CO2 Seq. Steam Turbine IGCC CO2 Seq. IGCC Steam Turbine CO2 Seq. Steam Turbine


Total primary energy consumption EU

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2000BAU

2000CO2

2010BAU

2010CO2

2020BAU

2020CO2

2030BAU

2030CO2

2040BAU

2040CO2

2050BAU

2050CO2

Pri

mar

y E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n [

PJ]

Electricityimport

Waste

Otherrenewables

Hydro, wind,photovoltaic

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal


Integration of LCA and External costs in the Pan-European TIMES model

Cost balance

Emissions balance

Net production-

value

Process energy

space heating

Area

Person

Light

Communication

Force

Personal-kilometres

Tonne-kilometres

Demand

Coalrefining

Refinery

Power plant andGrid

CHPand

District Heat

Gas pipelines

Industry

Commercial

Domestic

Transport

End energyPrimary Energy

Inlandproduction

Import

Dem

and

values

En

erg

y ca

rrie

r p

rice

s,

Res

ou

rces

ava

ilab

ilit

y

pricecost

Energy flow

Emission

capacities

Capacities

Emission

Emission

Cost per pollutant


Thank you for your attention !

CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008 The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES model SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems] Markus Blesl.

Documents

energy production

future energy systems

energy intensive industry

paneuropean model

integration of lca

heating plants residential

needs integrated project

chp plants