Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.

Testimonials

Plausibility

Research is probabilistic

Research reveals tendencies

Single cases can be found in support of any belief

Single cases can be found to refute any claim

How much data before the tendency is revealed?

How much data before the tendency is revealed?

Testimonials – even large numbers of people can be wrong

Homeopathy• History – from “humours” to “dynamic system”

• Today – 100K physicians, 500M patients

• Drugs – 3K drugs, including Rabies!

• Machines:

James Randi video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWE1tH93G9U

Self-Deception

• How can an honest person mistake worthless treatment for one that works?

• We are going to talk about 10 Competing Explanations

10 Competing Explanations

• The Placebo Effect ► The simple expectation of recovery sometimes

has a positive effect


• Spontaneous Remission ► Sometimes diseases disappear without any

treatment


• The Disease Ran its Natural Course ► If a disease is not chronic or fatal, it may be self-

limiting


• The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases ► Even chronic conditions go through phases


• Misdiagnosis ► There may be no disease in first place


• The “Worried Well” ► Some people with no disease nonetheless seek

health care


• Symptomatic Relief ► Alleviation of symptoms does not necessarily

mean the disease has been cured


• Hedged Bets ► People sometimes simultaneously receive

evidenced-based health care


• Derivative Benefits ► Purely psychological benefits can lead to people

taking better care of themselves


• Psychological Distortions of Reality ► Cognitive dissonance can distort perceptions of

the effectiveness of treatment

Cognitive Dissonance

• Cognitive dissonance is a psychological term which describes the uncomfortable tension that comes from holding two conflicting thoughts at the same time.

• To reduce the dissonance, people modify one of the two thoughts, or invent new thoughts

UFOs

• Some respectable people believe in UFOs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQgfaLFTl4U • Its world-wide

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbSSTqlanS8

• Some sightings defy explanation http://www.crowdedskies.com/ufo_videos.htm

• Some sightings appear like hoaxes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T67TkiyEOXg • Some sightings are pretty cool! http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7027173637881161714

Alien Abductions

• Alternative explanations • Contamination Effect• Sleep paralysis

• NOVA “Kidnapped by UFOs?”

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/aliens/

Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.

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Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.