Testimonials Plausibility
Mar 26, 2015
Testimonials
Plausibility
Research is probabilistic
Research reveals tendencies
Single cases can be found in support of any belief
Single cases can be found to refute any claim
How much data before the tendency is revealed?
How much data before the tendency is revealed?
Testimonials – even large numbers of people can be wrong
Homeopathy• History – from “humours” to “dynamic system”
• Today – 100K physicians, 500M patients
• Drugs – 3K drugs, including Rabies!
• Machines:
James Randi video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWE1tH93G9U
Self-Deception
• How can an honest person mistake worthless treatment for one that works?
• We are going to talk about 10 Competing Explanations
10 Competing Explanations
• The Placebo Effect ► The simple expectation of recovery sometimes
has a positive effect
10 Competing Explanations
• Spontaneous Remission ► Sometimes diseases disappear without any
treatment
10 Competing Explanations
• The Disease Ran its Natural Course ► If a disease is not chronic or fatal, it may be self-
limiting
10 Competing Explanations
• The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases ► Even chronic conditions go through phases
10 Competing Explanations
• Misdiagnosis ► There may be no disease in first place
10 Competing Explanations
• The “Worried Well” ► Some people with no disease nonetheless seek
health care
10 Competing Explanations
• Symptomatic Relief ► Alleviation of symptoms does not necessarily
mean the disease has been cured
10 Competing Explanations
• Hedged Bets ► People sometimes simultaneously receive
evidenced-based health care
10 Competing Explanations
• Derivative Benefits ► Purely psychological benefits can lead to people
taking better care of themselves
10 Competing Explanations
• Psychological Distortions of Reality ► Cognitive dissonance can distort perceptions of
the effectiveness of treatment
Cognitive Dissonance
• Cognitive dissonance is a psychological term which describes the uncomfortable tension that comes from holding two conflicting thoughts at the same time.
• To reduce the dissonance, people modify one of the two thoughts, or invent new thoughts
UFOs
• Some respectable people believe in UFOs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQgfaLFTl4U • Its world-wide
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbSSTqlanS8
• Some sightings defy explanation http://www.crowdedskies.com/ufo_videos.htm
• Some sightings appear like hoaxes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T67TkiyEOXg • Some sightings are pretty cool! http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7027173637881161714
Alien Abductions
• Alternative explanations • Contamination Effect• Sleep paralysis
• NOVA “Kidnapped by UFOs?”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/aliens/