►Sustainable SecurityTHREATS AND RESPONSES
Chris AbbottHonorary Visiting Research Fellow
Department of Peace StudiesUniversity of Bradford
Future Security Challenges, Risks and Threats
24 November 2009
Structure of lecture
►Government assessment of threats►Sustainable security assessment of threats►Government responses►Sustainable security responses►Why the current approach gets it wrong►Threats workshop
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change
►Government assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change
Government documents
► Strategic Defence Review, Strategic Defence Review: Modern Forces for the Modern World (Ministry of Defence, July 1998)
► SDR new chapter, The Strategic Defence Review: A New Chapter (Ministry of Defence, July 2002)
► Defence White Paper, Delivering Security in a Changing World (Ministry of Defence, December 2003)
► DWP additional chapter, Delivering Security in a Changing World: Future Capabilities (Ministry of Defence, July 2004)
Government documents
► Strategic trends programme, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme: 2007-2036 (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, Ministry of Defence, March 2007)
► National Security Strategy, The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Security in an Interdependent World (Cabinet Office, March 2008)
► National Risk Register, National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, August 2008)
► NSS update, Security for the Next Generation (Cabinet Office, June 2009)
The UK’s national security framework
Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Drivers of insecurity
►Global trends►Climate change►Competition for energy►Poverty, inequality and poor
governance►Ideologies and beliefs
Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Ring road issues over next 30 years
►Climate change
►Globalisation
►Global inequality
Source: The DCDC Strategic Trends Programme, 2007-2036 (Ministry of Defence, 2007)
National security threats
The DWP and the NSS conclude that:
►There are currently no major conventional military threats to the UK
►International terrorism and the proliferation of WMD represent the most direct threats to the UK’s peace and security
High consequence risks the UK faces
Source: National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2008)
►Sustainable security assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change
Sustainable security publications
► Global Responses to Global Threats: Sustainable Security for the 21st Century (ORG, 2006)
► Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real Threats to Our World (Rider, 2007)
► An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change (ORG, 2008)
Threats to security
GOVERNMENT► International
terrorism► Proliferation of WMD
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Climate change► Competition over
resources► Marginalisation► Global militarisation
Regional threats
Asia and Oceania► Maintaining
state integrity► The regional
power shift► Environmental
& humanitarian disasters
MENA► Conflict and
occupation► Resource
management► Marginalisation
and social exclusion
Africa► The nature of
the state► Legacies of war
and militarism► Resource
management
Sustainable security publications
► Tigers and Dragons: Sustainable Security in Asia and Australasia (ORG/SIIA, November 2008)
► From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa (ORG/IPS, March 2009)
► Beyond Dependence and Legacy: Sustainable Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (ORG/ISS, May 2009)
Climate change as a security risk
Source: An Uncertain Future (Oxford Research Group, 2008)
Impact of climate change on the military
►Difficulties maintaining military capability
►Loss of strategic defence assets
►Greater calls for peacetime troop deployments
►Instability in strategically important regions
►Government responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction & control► Coalitions► Military► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change
UK defence aim
To deliver security for the people of the United Kingdom and the Overseas Territories by defending them, including against terrorism; and to act as a force for good by strengthening international peace and stability.
Source: Defence White Paper (Ministry of Defence, 2003)
MoD strategic objectives 2008-09
►Achieve success in the military tasks we undertake at home and abroad. Limited progress
►Be ready to respond to the tasks that might arise. No progress
►Build for the future. Some progress
Source: MoD Autumn Performance Report 2008-09 (Ministry of Defence, 2009)
UK national security objective
Protecting the United Kingdom and its interests, enabling its people to go about their daily lives freely and with confidence, in a more secure, stable, just and prosperous world.
Source: National Security Strategy (Cabinet Office, 2008)
Principles of the defence vision
►Defending the United Kingdom and its interests
►Strengthening international peace and security
►Sustainable security responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention & resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change
Sustainable response to terrorism
►Sustained law enforcement and intelligence-led campaigns
►International diplomatic efforts
►Community engagement
►Targeted military action as last resort
Sustainable response to climate change
►International consensus and regional agreements
►Massive and sustained funding
►Extensive building programmes
►Further research
►Why does the current approach get it wrong?
“War is not a mere act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political activity by other means.”
General Carl von Clausewitz
Source: Vom Kriege (1832)
Other factors influencing security policy
►Alliances and treaties►International institutions►International law►Domestic politics ►National interest►Public opinion►Shock events►Psychology
Other factors influencing security policy
►Alliances and treaties►International institutions►International law►Domestic politics ►National interest►Public opinion►Shock events►Psychology
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention & resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change
►Threats workshop
Threats workshop
Each group to give a 10min presentation:►Introduce the trend►Define the security consequences of that
trend►Summarise the implications of this for the
military►Outline a possible sustainable security
response
►More information…
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