Sustainable Security: Threats and Responses

►Sustainable SecurityTHREATS AND RESPONSES

Chris AbbottHonorary Visiting Research Fellow

Department of Peace StudiesUniversity of Bradford

Future Security Challenges, Risks and Threats

24 November 2009

Structure of lecture

►Government assessment of threats►Sustainable security assessment of threats►Government responses►Sustainable security responses►Why the current approach gets it wrong►Threats workshop

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change

►Government assessment of threats

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change

Government documents

► Strategic Defence Review, Strategic Defence Review: Modern Forces for the Modern World (Ministry of Defence, July 1998)

► SDR new chapter, The Strategic Defence Review: A New Chapter (Ministry of Defence, July 2002)

► Defence White Paper, Delivering Security in a Changing World (Ministry of Defence, December 2003)

► DWP additional chapter, Delivering Security in a Changing World: Future Capabilities (Ministry of Defence, July 2004)

Government documents

► Strategic trends programme, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme: 2007-2036 (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, Ministry of Defence, March 2007)

► National Security Strategy, The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Security in an Interdependent World (Cabinet Office, March 2008)

► National Risk Register, National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, August 2008)

► NSS update, Security for the Next Generation (Cabinet Office, June 2009)

The UK’s national security framework

Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)

Drivers of insecurity

►Global trends►Climate change►Competition for energy►Poverty, inequality and poor

governance►Ideologies and beliefs

Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)

Ring road issues over next 30 years

►Climate change

►Globalisation

►Global inequality

Source: The DCDC Strategic Trends Programme, 2007-2036 (Ministry of Defence, 2007)

National security threats

The DWP and the NSS conclude that:

►There are currently no major conventional military threats to the UK

►International terrorism and the proliferation of WMD represent the most direct threats to the UK’s peace and security

High consequence risks the UK faces

Source: National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2008)

►Sustainable security assessment of threats

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change

Sustainable security publications

► Global Responses to Global Threats: Sustainable Security for the 21st Century (ORG, 2006)

► Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real Threats to Our World (Rider, 2007)

► An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change (ORG, 2008)

Threats to security

GOVERNMENT► International

terrorism► Proliferation of WMD

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Climate change► Competition over

resources► Marginalisation► Global militarisation

Regional threats

Asia and Oceania► Maintaining

state integrity► The regional

power shift► Environmental

& humanitarian disasters

MENA► Conflict and

occupation► Resource

management► Marginalisation

and social exclusion

Africa► The nature of

the state► Legacies of war

and militarism► Resource

management

Sustainable security publications

► Tigers and Dragons: Sustainable Security in Asia and Australasia (ORG/SIIA, November 2008)

► From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa (ORG/IPS, March 2009)

► Beyond Dependence and Legacy: Sustainable Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (ORG/ISS, May 2009)

Climate change as a security risk

Source: An Uncertain Future (Oxford Research Group, 2008)

Impact of climate change on the military

►Difficulties maintaining military capability

►Loss of strategic defence assets

►Greater calls for peacetime troop deployments

►Instability in strategically important regions

►Government responses

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction & control► Coalitions► Military► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention and resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change

UK defence aim

To deliver security for the people of the United Kingdom and the Overseas Territories by defending them, including against terrorism; and to act as a force for good by strengthening international peace and stability.

Source: Defence White Paper (Ministry of Defence, 2003)

MoD strategic objectives 2008-09

►Achieve success in the military tasks we undertake at home and abroad. Limited progress

►Be ready to respond to the tasks that might arise. No progress

►Build for the future. Some progress

Source: MoD Autumn Performance Report 2008-09 (Ministry of Defence, 2009)

UK national security objective

Protecting the United Kingdom and its interests, enabling its people to go about their daily lives freely and with confidence, in a more secure, stable, just and prosperous world.

Source: National Security Strategy (Cabinet Office, 2008)

Principles of the defence vision

►Defending the United Kingdom and its interests

►Strengthening international peace and security

►Sustainable security responses

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention & resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change

Sustainable response to terrorism

►Sustained law enforcement and intelligence-led campaigns

►International diplomatic efforts

►Community engagement

►Targeted military action as last resort

Sustainable response to climate change

►International consensus and regional agreements

►Massive and sustained funding

►Extensive building programmes

►Further research

►Why does the current approach get it wrong?

“War is not a mere act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political activity by other means.”

General Carl von Clausewitz

Source: Vom Kriege (1832)

Other factors influencing security policy

►Alliances and treaties►International institutions►International law►Domestic politics ►National interest►Public opinion►Shock events►Psychology

Other factors influencing security policy

►Alliances and treaties►International institutions►International law►Domestic politics ►National interest►Public opinion►Shock events►Psychology

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT► Individual threats► National security► Learns from past► Reaction and control► Coalitions► Military► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY► Integrated trends► International security► Looks to future► Prevention & resolution► International institutions► Non-military► Be the change

►Threats workshop

Threats workshop

Each group to give a 10min presentation:►Introduce the trend►Define the security consequences of that

trend►Summarise the implications of this for the

military►Outline a possible sustainable security

response

►More information…

www.chrisabbott.info

www.sustainablesecurity.org

www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk

►[email protected]