Executive Report
Study of the U.S. Market For Windows, Doors and Skylights
Copyright © 2014 - Published April 2014 by:
Researched by:
Ducker Research Company, Inc.
1250 Maplelawn Drive
Troy, MI 48084
(248) 644-0086
www.ducker.com
American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) 1827 Walden Office Square, Suite 550
Schaumburg, Illinois 60173
Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774
www.aamanet.org
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Description Page
A. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 1
1. Methodology
2. Purpose
3. Methodology and Timeline
4. Terminology
B. U.S. CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY 6
1. U.S. Summary
2. U.S. Residential Starts
3. Nonresidential Floor Area
C. DOOR MARKET 19
1. Summary
2. Market Size by Application
3. Segmentation by Material
4. Wood Doors by Application
5. Historic and Projected Growth
D. WINDOW MARKET 26 1. Summary
2. Residential-Type Market Size by Application
3. Residential-Type Window Segmented by Application and Material
4. Residential-Type Wood Windows in Conventional Applications
5. Residential-Type Vinyl Windows in Conventional Applications
6. Historic and Projected Growth
7. U.S. Nonresidential Glass and Windows Market Size
8. Nonresidential Historic and Projected Growth
E. PATIO DOOR MARKET 65
1. Summary
2. Market Size by Application
3. Segmentation of Wood Units
4. Patio Door Forecasts
F. SKYLIGHT MARKET 75
1. Summary
2. Market Size by Application
3. Commercial Skylights
APPENDICES:
A. Eleven U.S. Census Regions
B. U.S. Entry and Interior Door Market by Region
C. U.S. Conventional Residential Window Market by Region
D. Nonresidential Vision Area Models
E. U.S. Patio Door Market by Region
F. U.S. Glass Usage by Region
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Section Number & Type Description Page
A A.1 Timeline Program Timeline
2013 – 2014
Program Approval
Draft Report
Report Publication
3
B B.1 Bar Graph U.S. New Residential Construction
Segmented by Type of Structure
2007-2016
Manufactured Homes
Multi-Family
Single Family
8
B.2 Map U.S. Conventional Housing Starts
by Geographic Region
2013
11 Regions
9
B.3 Bar Graph Forecasted U.S. Residential Construction
Segmented by Type of Structure
2012F – 2016F
Manufactured Homes
Multi-Family
Single Family
10
B.4 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Housing Starts by Region
2013
South
West
Midwest
Northeast
11
B.5 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Housing Starts by Region
2015 Forecasted
South
West
Midwest
Northeast
11
B.6 Table Expenditures and Growth Over Prior Year
2006 – 2016F
12
B.7 Bar Chart Total U.S. Residential Improvement Expenditures
Billions of Dollars 2006-2016F
12
B (cont.) B.8 Table New U.S. Housing by Type of Structure
Private and Public, Including Farm
2006 – 2016F
Total Shelter
Manufactured Housing
Total Conventional
Single Family
Multi-Family
13
B.9 Table New U.S. Conventional Housing by Geographical Region
Private and Public, Including Farm
2006 – 2016F
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
14
B.10 Table U.S. Manufactured Housing Shipments to Dealers
by Geographical Region
Private and Public, Including Farm
2006 – 2016F
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
14
B.11 Bar Chart Forecasted Nonresidential Contract Awards by Floor Area
Segmented by Major Building Category
2011 – 2018F
Manufacturing/Warehouse
Office/Hotel/Institutional
Store/Mercantile
15
B.12 Map New U.S. Nonresidential Contract Awards by Geographical Region
2013
11 Regions
16
B.13 Pie Chart Nonresidential Contracts by Region
2013
South
West
Midwest
Northeast
17
B.14 Pie Chart Nonresidential Contracts by Region
2014 Forecasted
South
West
Midwest
Northeast
17
B (cont.) B.15 Table Nonresidential Contract Awards (Reported) by Selected Building
Types and Regions
2012 – 2018F
Manufacturing/Warehouse
Office/Hotel/Institutional
Store/Mercantile
Total Nonresidential
18
C C.1 Table Total Market for U.S. Doors by Application
2013
Residential Entry
Nonresidential Entry
20
C.2 Table Total U.S. Market for Doors by Construction Type and Application
2013
New Construction
Remodeling
Replacement
21
C.3 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Entry Doors by Material
2013
Steel
Wood
Fiberglass
22
C.4 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Fiberglass Entry Doors by Finish
2013
Smooth
Molded/Textured
22
C.5 Table Nonresidential Entry Doors by Material
2013
Steel
Aluminum
Wood
Other
23
C.6 Table Wood Doors by Application
2013
Residential Entry
Nonresidential Entry
24
C.7 Table Sales of U.S. Doors by Material and Application
2007-2016F
Steel
Wood
Fiberglass
Aluminum
25
D (cont.) D.1 Table Total Market for Residential-Type Window Units by Application
2011 and 2013
Residential New Construction
Residential Remodel
Residential Replacement
Manufactured Housing
Nonresidential New Construction
Nonresidential Remodel
Nonresidential Replacement
28
D.2 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential-Type Window Units by
Application and Framing Material
2011 and 2013
Residential, Nonresidential and Manufactured Housing Window
Units
Wood and Clad Wood
Vinyl
Aluminum
Other
30
D.3 Bar Graph Total U.S. Conventional Residential Window Demand
Historic and Forecasted Window Usage by Framing Material
2007 – 2016F
Wood and Clad Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Other
31
D.4 Table U.S. Conventional Residential Window Usage by Framing Material
Segmented by Construction Type
2011 and 2013
New, Remodel and Replacement
Wood and Clad Wood
Vinyl
Aluminum
Other
32
D.5 Table Conventional Residential Window Usage
Segmented by Framing Material
2011 and 2013
Wood
Aluminum Clad Wood
Vinyl Clad Wood
Aluminum with Thermal Break
Aluminum without Thermal Break
Vinyl
Other
33
D (cont.)
D.6 Table Conventional Residential Window Usage
Segmented by Configuration
2011 and 2013
Wood, Vinyl, Aluminum and Other
Double Hung
Single Hung
Casement
Gliding/Slider
Awning
Fixed
Specialty
34
D.7 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Window Volumes
Segmented by Customization
2011 and 2013
Standard Stock Windows
Customized Windows
36
D.8 Table Conventional Residential Window Glass Usage
Segmented by Framing Material
2011 and 2013
Single Lite, Two Lite Sealed IG, Other
Wood
Vinyl
Aluminum
Other
37
D.9 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Windows – Insulating Glass
Segmented by Type of Spacer
2011 and 2013
Rigid Warm Edge
Non-Rigid Warm Edge
Aluminum Spacer
38
D.10 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Windows – Hurricane Resistant
Florida, All Other Regions
2011 and 2013
Non Hurricane
Hurricane Impact Glazing
Hurricane Non-Impact Glazing
39
D.11 Table Conventional Residential Windows
Segmented by Glass Type
2011 and 2013
Wood, Vinyl, Aluminum and Other
Clear
Tinted/Reflective
Low-E
40
D.12 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Windows – Low-E
Segmented by Coating Type
2011 and 2013
Sputtered
Pyrolytic
41
D (cont.)
D.13 Table Conventional Residential Windows – Energy Ratings
Segmented by Rating Type
2011 and 2013
Wood, Vinyl, Aluminum/Other
NFRC Rating
NFRC and Energy Star Rating
No Rating
42
D.14 Table Conventional Residential Wood Window Units
Segmented by Configuration
2011 and 2013
Double Hung
Single Hung
Casement
Gliding/Slides
Awning
Fixed
Specialty
43
D.15 Table Conventional Residential Wood Window Units – Window Sash and
Frame Segmented by Wood Species Used
2011 and 2013
Ponderosa Pine
Southern Yellow Pine
Radiata Pine
White Pine
Fir/Hemlock
Other Softwoods
Oak
Other Hardwoods
44
D.16 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Wood Window Units – Non-Clad
Segmented by Exterior Finish
2011 and 2013
Primed/Prefinished
Natural
No Finish
45
D.17 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Wood Window Units
Segmented by Type of Insulating Spacer
2011 and 2013
Rigid Warm Edge Spacer
Non-Rigid Warm Edge
Aluminum Spacer
46
D.18 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Wood Window Units
Segmented by Low-E Usage and Technology
2011 and 2013
Sputtered
Pyrolytic
46
D (cont.) D.19 Table Conventional Residential Vinyl Window Units
Segmented by Configuration
2011 and 2013
Double Hung
Single Hung
Casement
Gliding/Slider
Awning
Fixed
Specialty
47
D.20 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Vinyl Window Units
Segmented by Type of Insulating Spacer
2011 and 2013
Rigid Warm Edge Spacer
Non-Rigid Warm Edge
Aluminum Spacer
48
D.21 Pie Chart Residential Vinyl Window Units
Segmented by Fabrication Method
2011 and 2013
Fully Welded Frame
Mechanically Fastened Frame
Hybrid of Mechanically Fastened Frame and Fully Welded Frame
48
D.22 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Vinyl Window Units
Segmented by Solid Extrusion Color
2011 and 2013
White
Tan
Other
49
D.23 Table Conventional Residential Windows Usage
2006-2016 Forecast
New Construction, Remodel/Replacement and Total Construction
Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Fiberglass
Other
50
D (cont.) D.24 Table New Nonresidential Construction and Major Additions
Segmented by Building Category
2011 and 2013
Curtain Wall, Storefront, Site Fabricated Windows and Shop
Fabricated Windows
Office and Bank
Stores, Other Mercantile
Manufacturing/Warehouses
Educational
Hospital/Health Care (incl. Government)
Public/Government
Religious
Amusement/Recreational
Hotel/Motel/Dormitory
Miscellaneous
High Rise Multi-Family
53
D.25 Table Total Nonresidential Vision Area
Segmented by Type of Construction
2011 and 2013
New Building/Major Additions and Replacement
Curtain Wall
Storefront
Site Fabricated Windows
Shop Fabricated Windows
54
D.26 Table Framing Materials Used in Nonresidential Construction
2011 and 2013
Curtain Wall, Storefront, Site Fabricated Windows and Shop
Fabricated Windows
Aluminum with Thermal Break
Aluminum without Thermal Break
Wood
Vinyl, Other
55
D.27 Table Nonresidential Aluminum Framing
Segmented by Finish Material
2011 and 2013
Anodized Finish
Standard Paint
High End paint
56
D.28 Table Calculations –High-Rise Construction – New and Major Additions
2011 and 2013
Ratio High-Rise, High-Rise Vision Area, Total Vision Glass Area
Office/Bank
All Other
57
D.29 Table Total U.S. Nonresidential Glass Usage
Segmented by Glazing Configuration
2011 and 2013
Single Lite and Non-Sealed
Insulating glass units
58
D (cont.) D.30 Table Glass Usage – Nonresidential Windows
2009 to 2013
Clear
Tint
Reflective
Low-E
58
D.31 Pie Chart Usage of Low-E Segmented by Coating Technology
2011 and 2013
Sputter and Suspended Film
Pyrolytic
59
D.32 Pie Chart Non Residential Glazing – Hurricane Resistant
Florida, All Other Regions
2013
Non Hurricane
Hurricane Impact Glazing
Hurricane Non Impact Glazing
60
D.33 Picture U.S. Market for Commercial Windows Segmented by Window
Type
2013
Site Fabricated
Shop Fabricated
61
D.34 Pie Chart U.S Market for Architectural Rated Shop-Fabricated Windows by
Rating Segmented by Window Rating Type
2011 and 2013
AW
C
H/C
61
D.35 Table U.S. Architecturally-Rated Shop-Fabricated Windows Segmented
by Window Configuration
2011 and 2013
Fixed
Projected / Awning
Slider
Hung
Door
Specialty/Other
62
D.36 Pie Chart U.S Shop-Fabricated Patio and Terrace Doors
Segmented by Door Type
2013
Hinged
Sliding
63
D.37 Table U.S. Window Usage in Nonresidential Buildings – 2009-2016F
New Construction
Remodeling & Replacement
64
E E.1 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors
Segmented by Framing Material
2009 - 2013
Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Steel
Fiberglass
Other
66
E.2 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors
Segmented by Construction Type and Framing Material
2011 and 2013
New Construction, Remodeland Replacement
Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Steel
Fiberglass
Other
67
E.3 & E.4. Pie
Charts Patio Doors by Framing Material
2011 and 2013
Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Steel
Fiberglass
Other
68
E.5 Table
Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors
Segmented by Application and Framing Material
2011 and 2013
Hinged and Sliding
Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Steel
Fiberglass
Others
69
E (cont.)
E.6 Table Total U.S. Sliding and Hinged Patio Doors
Segmented by Number of Panels
2011 and 2013
One Panel, Two Paneland Three or More Panels
Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Steel
Fiberglass
Others
70
E.7 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors
Segmented by Low-E Usage and Technology
2011 and 2013
Clear, Tinted, Reflective and low-E
Wood
Aluminum
Vinyl
Steel
Fiberglass
Others
71
E.8 Table Wood Patio Doors
Segmented by Cladding and Type of Door
2011 and 2013
Hinged and Sliding
Clad
Non-Clad
72
E.9 Pie Chart Non-Clad Wood Patio Doors
Segmented by Finish Type
2013
Primed/Painted
Natural Finish
No Finish
73
E.10 Table Wood Patio Door Lumber Type
Segmented by Wood Species
2013
Ponderosa Pine
Southern Yellow Pine
Radiata Pine
White Pine
Fir/Hemlock
Oak
Other Softwoods
Other Hardwoods
73
E.11 Table Residential Patio Door Market
2007 – 2016F
New Construction
Remodel and Replacement
74
F F.1 Table Residential-Type Skylights (Including Light Commercial)
2007 – 2013
New Construction
Remodel/Replacement
76
F.2 Table Skylights by Type and Application
2013
Plastic Glazed Skylight and Glass Glazed Skylight
Residential
Light Commercial
76
F.3 Pie Chart Total Market for Skylights by Type
2011 and 2013
Glass Glazed Skylights
Plastic Glazed Skylights
77
F.4 Pie Chart Plastic Glazed Skylights by Type
2013
Acrylic
Polycarbonate
78
F. 5 Pie Chart Plastic Glazed Skylights by Type
2013
Translucent/Diffusing
Tinted/Colored
Clear
78
F.6 Pie Chart Glass Glazed Skylights by Type
2013
Low E
Clear
Tinted
Reflective
79
F.7 Pie Chart Residential-Type Skylights by Framing Material
2013
Vinyl
Aluminum
Wood and Clad wood
Frameless / Other
80
F.8 Table Residential-Type Skylights by Type and Application
2013
Plastic Glazed Skylights and Glass Glazed Skylights
Fixed
Venting
Venting – Motorized/Operable
81
F.9 Table Forecast of Residential-Type Skylights
2012 – 2016F
New
Remodeling / Replacement
81
Appendix
A
APDX-A.1
Map
APDX-A.2
Table
Eleven U.S. Census Regions
Four to Eleven Region Conversion and Abbreviation Definitions
Appendix
B
Table U.S. Entry Door Market Segmented by Application and Estimated
Geographic Segmentation
2013
Residential
Nonresidential
Appendix
C
Table U.S. Conventional Residential Window Market Segmented by
Application and Estimated Geographic Segmentation
2013
New Construction
Remodeling and Replacement
Appendix
D
APDX-D.1
Graphic Conversion: Total Vision Glass Area
APDX-D.2
Graphic Model: Total Vision Glass Area
APDX-D.3
Table United States Nonresidential New and Major Additions
2013 Contract Awards
Office and Bank
Stores, other Mercantile
Manufacturing/Warehouse
Educational
Hospital/Healthcare (incl. Government)
Public/Government
Religious
Amusement/Recreational
Hotel/Motel/Dormitory
Miscellaneous
High Rise Multi Family
APDX-D.4
Table U.S. Nonresidential Total Wall Area – New and Additions
2013
Floor Area and Wall-to-Floor Ratio
Office and Bank
Stores, other Mercantile
Manufacturing/Warehouse
Educational
Hospital/Healthcare (incl. Government)
Public/Government
Religious
Amusement/Recreational
Hotel/Motel/Dormitory
Miscellaneous
High Rise Multi Family
APDX-D.5 U.S. Nonresidential Vision and Opaque Wall Area – New and
Table Additions Segmented by Building Category
2013
Total Wall Area and Vision Glass
Office and Bank
Stores, other Mercantile
Manufacturing/Warehouse
Educational
Hospital/Healthcare (incl. Government)
Public/Government
Religious
Amusement/Recreational
Hotel/Motel/Dormitory
Miscellaneous
High Rise Multi Family
Appendix
E
Table U.S. Patio Door Market
Segmented by Application and Estimated Geographic Segmentation
2013
New Construction
Remodeling and Replacement
Appendix
F
Table U.S. Glass Usage
Segmented by Glass Type and Estimated Geographic Segmentation
2013
Clear
Tinted
Low-E
Copyright © 2014 AAMA
All rights reserved.
This report or any part thereof may not be reproduced in any form without the written permission
of the publisher.
A. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
Ducker Worldwide has been conducting the study of the U.S. residential and
nonresidential window and door markets for AAMA (the American Architectural
Manufacturers Association) since 1982. It is the only program of its kind to have served
the fenestration industry continuously for over 30 years, and it is the longest and most
commonly referenced research program in the industry. This particular study details
market volumes and trends in the U.S. for 2013, forecasted through 2016, as well as
historical volumes. A summary report, the Statistical Review and Forecast Report, is
also available.
Prior to 1982, studies were conducted for the Sealed Insulating Glass Manufacturers
Association (SIGMA) since 1978. This association is now called the Insulating Glass
Manufacturers Alliance (IGMA). Additionally, Ducker’s fenestration research history
goes back to 1972 when we first developed a demand model for flat glass usage in the
United States. Ducker further produces many syndicated and custom market research
studies for the fenestration and building products markets annually. These include the
annual studies of the North American Flat Glass Market Study and a bi-annual study of
the Northern American Fabricated Glass Market, among many others.
This following report is the result of a combined market study and a database analysis
funded by AAMA. The intent of this study is to develop a full database and a
comprehensive report on all segments of the window and door market. The database is
designed to be utilized for studies into the foreseeable future and to compare ongoing
trends.
1. Methodology The role of Ducker Worldwide is to combine primary and secondary market research efforts with its own body of knowledge to profile and track residential and nonresidential segments of fenestration market volume. As a major input to the research, Ducker receives confidential disclosures from AAMA members along with non-members. However, multiple industry sources, such as demand models, raw material and component suppliers and internal databases, are necessary and consistently used to triangulate market statistics.
Public databases are also utilized, such as the U.S. Bureau of Census and other sources of construction metrics. In addition, Ducker interviewed several hundred home builders, contractors, installers and distributors, which help to develop indicative product usage factors and channel flow as a cross reference to the various manufacturers’ input. This report, the U.S. National Statistical Review and Forecast and associated regional reports were prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice, as additional information becomes available. Any interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of those using the report. Reproduction without the explicit, written consent of Ducker Worldwide, LLC or AAMA is strictly prohibited. The metrics published throughout the report represent the best judgment of Ducker through March of 2013. However, the Census or other sources of construction metrics frequently do not finalize their 2013 data totals until late into 2013, and they also will revise historical information. Ducker takes into account these historical revisions when updating models and thus minor differences between published construction data may occur. These revisions do not impact market size estimates for fenestration categories unless stated throughout the report. Please note that while all individual numbers are accurate as rounded, totals may not always add due to rounding.
The following report represents our research and analytical efforts beginning in
late 2013.
2. Purpose The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive single report detailing the window and door market for AAMA.
3. Methodology and Timeline Study findings are based upon disclosures from window and door manufacturers, suppliers, secondary construction data metrics and our prior database and experience in providing this information in the past. Study findings are segmented by geographic region as illustrated in Appendix A to this report. The research program for AAMA spans from December 2013 through April 2014. A timeline is provided on the following page as
Exhibit A.1. Exhibit A.1
Program Timeline
2013 – 2014
Program Draft Report Approval Report Publication
December 2013 late-March, 2014 end-April, 2014
For purposes of presenting data in this report, the term Exhibits will be used to display all graphics, charts and tables.
4. Terminology Certain terms are used throughout the report which may require definition. Also, in our analysis, assumptions are made regarding units and construction activity. The following is a list of definitions and assumptions used in the development of this report. Specific questions on terminology throughout the report can also be directed to Ducker Worldwide, LLC. Bifold Door: An interior application utilizing two or more individual door leafs, conjoined with hinges, which operate on a sliding track. A bifold door is primarily a form of a closet door. However, bifold doors do not include folding doors or overlapping sliding doors. Bifold door volume counted on a per leaf basis. Included in interior door volume. Closet Doors: An interior door used for passage from room or hallway to closet. Included in interior door volume, but not reported separately. Doors: Units are defined as actual door slabs and panels, rather
Kick-off meeting
Initiate fieldwork
Analyze and report information
Present draft results
Fieldwork complete
Review draft reports with AAMA advisory committees
Make revisions, final edits
than openings where one or more slabs would be used. Excluded from door units are closet doors, bifold doors and service and industrial doors. Entry Doors: A door opening that allows passage from the exterior of a building or home to the interior. In the residential market, hinged rear entrance doors connecting an attached garage to a home are included, while patio doors are excluded and reported separately. In the nonresidential market, entry doors also include vestibule doors. Flush Door Construction: A method of door construction whereby a thin face material is attached to a light internal frame (often made of wood). Face material may include high density fiberboard, steel, wood veneer, MDO, or other products. Framing: Metal, wood, fiberglass, vinyl, or composite members comprising the window. In operable windows, framing members include both a operational portion and fixed portion of the window. Insulating Glass: A combination of two or more panes of glass with a hermetically sealed air space between the panes of glass separated by a spacer. This space may or may not be filled with an inert gas, such as argon. Interior Door: Includes both Passageway and Closet doors. Nonresidential: Nonresidential construction is defined as all commercial buildings, from small to large, that are not meant for residence. Hotels, motels and dormitories are included in nonresidential figures. Patio Doors: Units are defined as openings at the manufacturer level, to avoid double counting units due to multiple operable, or inoperable panels. For example, a double French door and a triple panel sliding door are all considered one unit. Figures in this report identify units with single panels and multiple panels alike as one singular unit. Further segmentation by number of panels in detailed in the Patio Door section of this report. Passageway Doors: An interior door used for passage from room or hallway to room. Excluded from this are garage hinged and service doors. Residential: Residential construction is defined as dwelling units:
single-family attached, single-family detached, multi-family and manufactured homes. Apartment buildings, although considered commercial construction, are included in our residential figures, except for high rise construction which uses commercial shop fabricated windows. Stile and Rail Door Construction: A traditional method of construction for wood doors whereby the structural components are exposed. Structural components include wood stiles (vertical beams) and rails (horizontal beams), which encompass wood panels. Stiles and rails are held together using glue and dowel pins, while panels often “float” within channels grooved into the stile and rail components. Skylights: Standardized unit specified by product. Not included in window volumes. Sloped Glazing: Nonstandard specification, also called custom skylights or monumental glazing. This product is captured in curtain wall data, but not segmented out. Does not include sunrooms, which are a separate category. Study Regions: Eleven geographic regions are used throughout the report. Appendix A to this report illustrates the definition of these regions. Sunrooms: Separate classification from sloped glazing. Not included in window volumes, but some windows may be ultimately destined for use in a sunroom. Vision Glass Area: Unless otherwise noted, glass area figures are surface measure of vision glass area. Figures for spandrel glass materials also are surface measured. Windows: Units are defined as openings at the manufacturer level. However, the definition of a unit differs among manufacturers (e.g., a bay window to some may be three openings while to others it may be one). This does not account for multiple windows that are nailed together at the distributor level for one opening. Figures in this report more closely reflect units at the manufacturer level, rather than openings at the job site. Sliding and hinged patio or French doors are considered a separate market from windows.
* * *
2013/2014 U.S. National Statistical Review and Forecast – April 2014
Forecast: Ducker Worldwide LLC
Copyright © 2014- Published by:
Researched and Edited in March 2014 by:
Ducker Worldwide, LLC
1250 Maplelawn Dr.
Troy, MI 48084
(248) 644-0086
www.ducker.com
Introduction
Market estimates in the U.S. Industry Statistical Review
and Forecast are driven not only by statistics published by
the Census Bureau and other construction statistics
organizations, but also from primary interviews with
leading manufacturers of windows, doors and skylights, as
well as component suppliers. All forecasts are based on
projections of construction activity as of March 2014 and
appropriate usage factors and tabulations developed by
Ducker Worldwide LLC, which is solely responsible for the
data. Any questions on the Review or its contents should be
directed to Ducker. Please note that totals may not always
add due to rounding.
Ducker has been conducting residential and nonresidential
market studies continuously since 1982 for the American
Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA). From
1978 to 1981, studies were conducted for the Sealed
Insulating Glass Manufacturers Association (SIGMA-
(currently referred to as IGMA).
The U.S. Industry Statistical Review and Forecast is
published annually in the spring. Additional and much
more detailed information on window, door and skylight
markets is contained in the (2013/2014) Study of the U.S.
Market for Windows, Doors and Skylights, and The
Distribution of Residential and Nonresidential Windows
and Doors in the 2013/2014 U.S. Market. All reports are
available from AAMA.
Contents
Residential Construction Activity
Privately-owned housing 1
New housing by type of structure 1
Residential construction activity 2
Improvement expenditures 3
Manufactured housing shipments 4
Existing home sales 4
Residential Product Statistics
Prime windows 5-6
Skylights 7
Patio doors 8
Entry and passage door usage 9
Door forecast 10
Nonresidential Product Statistics
Entry door usage 9
Door forecast 10
Insulating glass statistics 11
Nonresidential Construction Activity
Contract awards 12-13
Regional construction 14
Window usage 15-16
U.S. Map of Geographic Division 17
American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) 1827 Walden Office Square, Suite 550
Schaumburg, Illinois 60173
Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774
www.aamanet.org
Executive Report
The Distribution of Residential and Nonresidential Windows and Doors in the 2013 U.S. Market
Copyright © 2014 - Published April 2014 by
American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) 1827 Walden Office Square, Suite 104
Schaumburg, Illinois 60173 Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774
www.aamanet.org
Researched by: Ducker Research Company, Inc. 1250 Maplelawn Troy, MI 48084 (248) 644-0086 www.ducker.com
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Description Page I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................4 II. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY ..........................................6
A. Introduction
B. Study Objectives
C. Study Methodology III. CHANNEL MEMBER DEFINITIONS AND PROFILES ......................9
A. Characteristics of Channel Members
B. Characteristic Definitions
C. Distributor Profiles IV. PRODUCT FLOW ANALYSIS ......................................................... 25
A. Market Size
B. Distribution Discussion
C. Windows
D. Patio Doors
E. Entry Doors V. ISSUES AND TRENDS .................................................................... 55
A. Channel Member Trends
B. Regional Trends VI. NONRESIDENTIAL WINDOWS AND DOORS ................................ 59
A. Nonresidential Windows and Glazing
B. Nonresidential Windows and Glazing Supply Channel Chain Definitions
C. Nonresidential Window Distribution Analysis
D. Nonresidential Door Channel Member Definitions
E. Nonresidential Door Distribution Analysis
2
INDEX OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit Title Page Number
III.1 Definitions – Categorizing Process .............................................................. 10
III.2 Millwork Wholesaler Profile .......................................................................... 13
III.3 Big Box Profile .............................................................................................. 16
III.4 Lumberyard Profile ....................................................................................... 18
III.6 Shortline Distributor Profile ........................................................................... 20
III.7 Specialty Retailer Profile .............................................................................. 22
III.8 Summary of Distribution Definitions ............................................................. 24
IV.1 2013 Market Size - Residential .................................................................... 25
IV.2 2013 Windows – Manufacturer Direct .......................................................... 27
IV.3 2013 Windows – Secondary Distribution Channels ...................................... 28
IV.4 2013 Windows - Total Volume by Channel Distribution ............................... 29
IV.5 2013 Millwork Wholesaler – Actual Window Purchases and Sales .............. 30
IV.6 2013 Big Box – Actual Window Purchases and Sales ................................. 31
IV.7 2013 Lumberyard – Actual Window Purchases and Sales ........................... 32
IV.9 2013 Shortline Distributor – Actual Window Purchases and Sales .............. 33
IV.10 2013 Specialty Retailer – Actual Window Purchases and Sales .................. 34
IV.11 2013 Summary of Window Volumes – Segmented by End User ................. 35
IV.12 2013 Summary of Window Volumes – Segmented by Construction Type ... 36
IV.13 2013 Patio Doors – Manufacturer Direct ...................................................... 37
IV.14 2013 Patio Doors – Major Distribution Channels .......................................... 38
IV.15 2013 Patio Doors – Total Volume by Channel of Distribution....................... 39
IV.16 2013 Millwork Wholesaler – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales .......... 40
IV.17 2013 Big Box – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales ............................. 41
IV.18 2013 Lumberyard – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales....................... 42
IV.20 2013 Shortline Distributor – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales .......... 43
IV.21 2013 Specialty Retailer – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales .............. 44
IV.22 2013 Summary of Patio Door Volumes – Segmented by End User ............. 45
IV.23 2013 Summary of Patio Door Volumes – Segmented by Construction Type45
IV.24 2013 Entry Doors – Manufacturer Direct ...................................................... 46
IV.25 2013 Entry Doors – Secondary Distribution Channels ................................. 47
IV.26 2013 Entry Doors – Total Volume by Channel of Distribution ...................... 48
IV.27 2013 Millwork Wholesaler – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales .......... 49
IV.28 2013 Big Box – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales ............................. 50
3
INDEX OF EXHIBITS
(continued)
Exhibit Title Page Number
IV.29 2013 Lumberyard – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales ...................... 51
IV.30 2013 Shortline Distributor – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales .......... 52
IV.31 2013 Specialty Retailer – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales .............. 53
IV.32 2013 Summary of Entry Door Volumes – Segmented by End User ............. 54
IV.33 2013 Summary of Entry Door Volumes – Segmented by Construction Type54
V.1 Historic View of Window and Door Product Distribution Channel Characteristics ............................................................................................. 57
V.2 Historic View of Window and Door Product
Distribution Flow – 2003-2013 ...................................................................... 58
VI.1 Nonresidential Construction Specification Process and Cycle....................... 60
VI.2 Architectural Glazing Products Supply Chain ................................................ 67
VI.3 Fabricated Commercial Window Supply Chain ............................................. 70
VI.4 Nonresidential Door Product Flow ................................................................. 73
Copyright © 2014 AAMA
All rights reserved.
This report or any part thereof, may not be reproduced in any form without the written permission of the publisher.
4
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The window and door market has continued to grow since the rebound began in 2010.
New housing construction activity has been picking up steadily in the double-digit
growth range, which is driving channel dynamics. Lumberyard volume has increased
substantially within the window and patio door categories, while Millwork Wholesale
share is returning to pre-decline levels within the door market. In contrast, remodeling
volume has been somewhat softer than expected, and while representing the bulk of the
fenestration markets during the downturn, this segment is seeing some dilution vs. the
strong growth reported in new construction. Modest growth should continue within R&R
for the foreseeable future, but new construction is expected to continue growth in the
double digit range for several years.
The window market reached 46.9 million units for 2013, an increase of 16 percent from
2011. Patio and entry doors comprise an estimated 12.1 million units, growing 15 and
11 percent respectively.
Combined residential window/door market volume grew at modest rates, with a
continued shift in product flow at the first line of distribution direct from the
manufacturer. Similar to 2011, growth in new construction drove an increase in
combined volume through lumberyards, shortline distributors and professional builders.
Specialty retailers continued to decline, from 23 percent in 2011 to 21.7 percent in 2013,
while lumberyards saw the greatest increase to 29.5 percent. This growth in the
lumberyard channel is largely due to their primary concentration on the new
construction market, while specialty retailers suffered with their focus on the relatively
unfavorable replacement and remodeling market. These categories are followed by big
box which declined in their share of window distribution by approximately 2 percent, and
shortliners who saw a 1 percent increase. Millwork wholesalers maintained low levels,
accounting for 3 percent of window volume. For patio doors, lumberyards grew their
share to a leading 38 percent, with specialty retailers dropping but maintaining the
second largest patio door volume at 19 percent. Millwork wholesaler as well as big box
both decreased since 2011, representing 6 and 18 percent respectively.
In contrast, sales of entry doors direct from the manufacturer to millwork wholesalers
increased from 35 percent in 2011 to 40 percent. In contrast, big box share of entry door
volume fell 37 percent.
5
The new construction market continues to grow, with approximately 40 percent of
windows, 45 percent of patio doors, and 30 percent of entry door volume ending up in
that segment of the market.
Production levels of window products are expected to continue to increase at double
digit rate over the next two years, driven by the new construction market. Door products
are anticipated to follow suit and continue high levels of growth, with entry doors
reaching approximately 14.6 million units by 2016.
6
II. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
A. Introduction
The following report highlights results of the Ducker Research study of the
2013 U.S. market for distribution of windows and doors. This research effort is
the ninth report of its kind and represents a complete standalone analysis that
incorporates key market evolution elements that have transpired since the
original 1998 and subsequent 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011
reports on the market. This study is conducted on behalf of The American
Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) as part of the total window
and door program for 2013. This effort provides members with a thorough
understanding of relevant distribution channels and volumes of window and
door products through identified channels.
Our experience in researching and reporting on the window and door market
coupled with an industry need for more thorough information on distribution
channels led to the initial study conducted in 1998. This product proved to be
an invaluable source to leading window and door product manufacturers as
well as distributors. The reports in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and
2011 continued to highlight trends affecting this market and validate key data
regarding volume shifts and changes among channel members. The 2013
study will provide an update to all the previous studies. Each time this effort is
undertaken, further depth is achieved as a result of an increase in data points
and industry participation as well as extensive analysis of window and door
volumes.
7
B. Study Objectives
As with previous efforts, the primary objective of this study is to profile the
U.S. market for residential windows and doors as it flows through the
identified distribution channels. Market size figures for 2013 window and door
materials will be used as well as a three-year forecasted estimate of market
conditions and statistics for window and door material flow. The gathering of
market size figures and segmentations is a part of the total research project
on behalf of AAMA. A summary of study objectives follows.
A major function of the eight previous reports was to develop definitions and
profiles of channel members serving the window and door market. The
preceding studies were successful at validating definitions as well as
providing opportunities for refining profiles and existing data. Profiles for each
distributor type are defined in detail, further refined in this 2013 report.
Product volume estimates through the channels to the end user are based on
2013 market figures for residential windows and doors. Separate analyses for
windows, patio doors, exterior doors and commercial products in both new
and replacement applications are included. Information regarding end users
remains a part of the overall report.
Finally, forecasts regarding future product volume flow through the channels
and anticipated trends as well as conditions affecting the marketplace are
analyzed and presented for each product area.
8
C. Study Methodology
The primary means of information gathering has not changed since the initial
effort due to its success and remains telephone interviews with window and
door product manufacturers, distributors, and manufactured housing
producers. These interviews are augmented with personal interviews and
high level discussions with industry participants during AAMA gatherings and
other relevant trade events from 2005 through 2013, and into 2014.
Approximately 250 interviews have been conducted for the 2013 effort by
Ducker Research principals, managers, analysts and our experienced in-
house fieldwork research team.
For this initiative, approximately 250 distributors and manufacturers interviews
were conducted. Both branch and headquarter contact was made for large,
chain distributors to get both a national perspective as well as local trends.
Other channel members, such as builders and contractors, were also
contacted to get a deeper understanding of product distribution. Interviews
are segmented evenly across the 11 U.S. Census regions.
.
Channel member definitions and profiles are examined in the following
section.
9
III. CHANNEL MEMBER DEFINITIONS AND PROFILES
A. Characteristics of Channel Members
This section of the report provides a thorough definition of each channel
member under study. Characteristics include products carried, customers
served, and market focus as well as additional services offered by distributor
types.
Channel members have been evaluated and placed into one of the five
different distribution categories. The five categories are:
1. Millwork Wholesaler
2. Big Box
3. Lumberyard
4. Shortline Distributor
5. Specialty Retailer
Volume to the OEM segment is also accounted for throughout the report. For
the purpose of this study, OEM refers to manufactured housing producers.
The OEM segment serves as an end user in this case as the installation of
fenestration products occurs at OEM factories with no further channel
member involvement.