Study of the U.S. Market For Windows, Doors and Skylights · B. U.S. CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY 6 1. U.S. Summary ... West Midwest ... D.8 Table Conventional Residential Window Glass Usage

Executive Report

Study of the U.S. Market For Windows, Doors and Skylights

Copyright © 2014 - Published April 2014 by:

Researched by:

Ducker Research Company, Inc.

1250 Maplelawn Drive

Troy, MI 48084

(248) 644-0086

www.ducker.com

American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) 1827 Walden Office Square, Suite 550

Schaumburg, Illinois 60173

Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774

www.aamanet.org

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section Description Page

A. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 1

1. Methodology

2. Purpose

3. Methodology and Timeline

4. Terminology

B. U.S. CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY 6

1. U.S. Summary

2. U.S. Residential Starts

3. Nonresidential Floor Area

C. DOOR MARKET 19

1. Summary

2. Market Size by Application

3. Segmentation by Material

4. Wood Doors by Application

5. Historic and Projected Growth

D. WINDOW MARKET 26 1. Summary

2. Residential-Type Market Size by Application

3. Residential-Type Window Segmented by Application and Material

4. Residential-Type Wood Windows in Conventional Applications

5. Residential-Type Vinyl Windows in Conventional Applications

6. Historic and Projected Growth

7. U.S. Nonresidential Glass and Windows Market Size

8. Nonresidential Historic and Projected Growth

E. PATIO DOOR MARKET 65

1. Summary


3. Segmentation of Wood Units

4. Patio Door Forecasts

F. SKYLIGHT MARKET 75

1. Summary


3. Commercial Skylights

APPENDICES:

A. Eleven U.S. Census Regions

B. U.S. Entry and Interior Door Market by Region

C. U.S. Conventional Residential Window Market by Region

D. Nonresidential Vision Area Models

E. U.S. Patio Door Market by Region

F. U.S. Glass Usage by Region

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Section Number & Type Description Page

A A.1 Timeline Program Timeline

2013 – 2014

Program Approval

Draft Report

Report Publication

3

B B.1 Bar Graph U.S. New Residential Construction

Segmented by Type of Structure

2007-2016

Manufactured Homes

Multi-Family

Single Family

8

B.2 Map U.S. Conventional Housing Starts

by Geographic Region

2013

11 Regions

9

B.3 Bar Graph Forecasted U.S. Residential Construction

Segmented by Type of Structure

2012F – 2016F

Manufactured Homes

Multi-Family

Single Family

10

B.4 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Housing Starts by Region

2013

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

11

B.5 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Housing Starts by Region

2015 Forecasted

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

11

B.6 Table Expenditures and Growth Over Prior Year

2006 – 2016F

12

B.7 Bar Chart Total U.S. Residential Improvement Expenditures

Billions of Dollars 2006-2016F

12

B (cont.) B.8 Table New U.S. Housing by Type of Structure

Private and Public, Including Farm

2006 – 2016F

Total Shelter

Manufactured Housing

Total Conventional

Single Family

Multi-Family

13

B.9 Table New U.S. Conventional Housing by Geographical Region


2006 – 2016F

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

14

B.10 Table U.S. Manufactured Housing Shipments to Dealers

by Geographical Region


2006 – 2016F

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

14

B.11 Bar Chart Forecasted Nonresidential Contract Awards by Floor Area

Segmented by Major Building Category

2011 – 2018F

Manufacturing/Warehouse

Office/Hotel/Institutional

Store/Mercantile

15

B.12 Map New U.S. Nonresidential Contract Awards by Geographical Region

2013

11 Regions

16

B.13 Pie Chart Nonresidential Contracts by Region

2013

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

17

B.14 Pie Chart Nonresidential Contracts by Region

2014 Forecasted

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

17

B (cont.) B.15 Table Nonresidential Contract Awards (Reported) by Selected Building

Types and Regions

2012 – 2018F


Office/Hotel/Institutional

Store/Mercantile

Total Nonresidential

18

C C.1 Table Total Market for U.S. Doors by Application

2013

Residential Entry

Nonresidential Entry

20

C.2 Table Total U.S. Market for Doors by Construction Type and Application

2013

New Construction

Remodeling

Replacement

21

C.3 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Entry Doors by Material

2013

Steel

Wood

Fiberglass

22

C.4 Pie Chart U.S. Residential Fiberglass Entry Doors by Finish

2013

Smooth

Molded/Textured

22

C.5 Table Nonresidential Entry Doors by Material

2013

Steel

Aluminum

Wood

Other

23

C.6 Table Wood Doors by Application

2013

Residential Entry

Nonresidential Entry

24

C.7 Table Sales of U.S. Doors by Material and Application

2007-2016F

Steel

Wood

Fiberglass

Aluminum

25

D (cont.) D.1 Table Total Market for Residential-Type Window Units by Application

2011 and 2013

Residential New Construction

Residential Remodel

Residential Replacement

Manufactured Housing

Nonresidential New Construction

Nonresidential Remodel

Nonresidential Replacement

28

D.2 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential-Type Window Units by

Application and Framing Material

2011 and 2013

Residential, Nonresidential and Manufactured Housing Window

Units

Wood and Clad Wood

Vinyl

Aluminum

Other

30

D.3 Bar Graph Total U.S. Conventional Residential Window Demand

Historic and Forecasted Window Usage by Framing Material

2007 – 2016F

Wood and Clad Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Other

31

D.4 Table U.S. Conventional Residential Window Usage by Framing Material

Segmented by Construction Type

2011 and 2013

New, Remodel and Replacement

Wood and Clad Wood

Vinyl

Aluminum

Other

32

D.5 Table Conventional Residential Window Usage

Segmented by Framing Material

2011 and 2013

Wood

Aluminum Clad Wood

Vinyl Clad Wood

Aluminum with Thermal Break

Aluminum without Thermal Break

Vinyl

Other

33

D (cont.)

D.6 Table Conventional Residential Window Usage

Segmented by Configuration

2011 and 2013

Wood, Vinyl, Aluminum and Other

Double Hung

Single Hung

Casement

Gliding/Slider

Awning

Fixed

Specialty

34

D.7 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Window Volumes

Segmented by Customization

2011 and 2013

Standard Stock Windows

Customized Windows

36

D.8 Table Conventional Residential Window Glass Usage


2011 and 2013

Single Lite, Two Lite Sealed IG, Other

Wood

Vinyl

Aluminum

Other

37

D.9 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Windows – Insulating Glass

Segmented by Type of Spacer

2011 and 2013

Rigid Warm Edge

Non-Rigid Warm Edge

Aluminum Spacer

38

D.10 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Windows – Hurricane Resistant

Florida, All Other Regions

2011 and 2013

Non Hurricane

Hurricane Impact Glazing

Hurricane Non-Impact Glazing

39

D.11 Table Conventional Residential Windows

Segmented by Glass Type

2011 and 2013

Wood, Vinyl, Aluminum and Other

Clear

Tinted/Reflective

Low-E

40

D.12 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Windows – Low-E

Segmented by Coating Type

2011 and 2013

Sputtered

Pyrolytic

41

D (cont.)

D.13 Table Conventional Residential Windows – Energy Ratings

Segmented by Rating Type

2011 and 2013

Wood, Vinyl, Aluminum/Other

NFRC Rating

NFRC and Energy Star Rating

No Rating

42

D.14 Table Conventional Residential Wood Window Units


2011 and 2013

Double Hung

Single Hung

Casement

Gliding/Slides

Awning

Fixed

Specialty

43

D.15 Table Conventional Residential Wood Window Units – Window Sash and

Frame Segmented by Wood Species Used

2011 and 2013

Ponderosa Pine

Southern Yellow Pine

Radiata Pine

White Pine

Fir/Hemlock

Other Softwoods

Oak

Other Hardwoods

44

D.16 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Wood Window Units – Non-Clad

Segmented by Exterior Finish

2011 and 2013

Primed/Prefinished

Natural

No Finish

45

D.17 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Wood Window Units

Segmented by Type of Insulating Spacer

2011 and 2013

Rigid Warm Edge Spacer

Non-Rigid Warm Edge

Aluminum Spacer

46

D.18 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Wood Window Units

Segmented by Low-E Usage and Technology

2011 and 2013

Sputtered

Pyrolytic

46

D (cont.) D.19 Table Conventional Residential Vinyl Window Units


2011 and 2013

Double Hung

Single Hung

Casement

Gliding/Slider

Awning

Fixed

Specialty

47

D.20 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Vinyl Window Units

Segmented by Type of Insulating Spacer

2011 and 2013

Rigid Warm Edge Spacer

Non-Rigid Warm Edge

Aluminum Spacer

48

D.21 Pie Chart Residential Vinyl Window Units

Segmented by Fabrication Method

2011 and 2013

Fully Welded Frame

Mechanically Fastened Frame

Hybrid of Mechanically Fastened Frame and Fully Welded Frame

48

D.22 Pie Chart Conventional Residential Vinyl Window Units

Segmented by Solid Extrusion Color

2011 and 2013

White

Tan

Other

49

D.23 Table Conventional Residential Windows Usage

2006-2016 Forecast

New Construction, Remodel/Replacement and Total Construction

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Fiberglass

Other

50

D (cont.) D.24 Table New Nonresidential Construction and Major Additions

Segmented by Building Category

2011 and 2013

Curtain Wall, Storefront, Site Fabricated Windows and Shop

Fabricated Windows

Office and Bank

Stores, Other Mercantile

Manufacturing/Warehouses

Educational

Hospital/Health Care (incl. Government)

Public/Government

Religious

Amusement/Recreational

Hotel/Motel/Dormitory

Miscellaneous

High Rise Multi-Family

53

D.25 Table Total Nonresidential Vision Area

Segmented by Type of Construction

2011 and 2013

New Building/Major Additions and Replacement

Curtain Wall

Storefront

Site Fabricated Windows

Shop Fabricated Windows

54

D.26 Table Framing Materials Used in Nonresidential Construction

2011 and 2013

Curtain Wall, Storefront, Site Fabricated Windows and Shop

Fabricated Windows

Aluminum with Thermal Break

Aluminum without Thermal Break

Wood

Vinyl, Other

55

D.27 Table Nonresidential Aluminum Framing

Segmented by Finish Material

2011 and 2013

Anodized Finish

Standard Paint

High End paint

56

D.28 Table Calculations –High-Rise Construction – New and Major Additions

2011 and 2013

Ratio High-Rise, High-Rise Vision Area, Total Vision Glass Area

Office/Bank

All Other

57

D.29 Table Total U.S. Nonresidential Glass Usage

Segmented by Glazing Configuration

2011 and 2013

Single Lite and Non-Sealed

Insulating glass units

58

D (cont.) D.30 Table Glass Usage – Nonresidential Windows

2009 to 2013

Clear

Tint

Reflective

Low-E

58

D.31 Pie Chart Usage of Low-E Segmented by Coating Technology

2011 and 2013

Sputter and Suspended Film

Pyrolytic

59

D.32 Pie Chart Non Residential Glazing – Hurricane Resistant

Florida, All Other Regions

2013

Non Hurricane

Hurricane Impact Glazing

Hurricane Non Impact Glazing

60

D.33 Picture U.S. Market for Commercial Windows Segmented by Window

Type

2013

Site Fabricated

Shop Fabricated

61

D.34 Pie Chart U.S Market for Architectural Rated Shop-Fabricated Windows by

Rating Segmented by Window Rating Type

2011 and 2013

AW

C

H/C

61

D.35 Table U.S. Architecturally-Rated Shop-Fabricated Windows Segmented

by Window Configuration

2011 and 2013

Fixed

Projected / Awning

Slider

Hung

Door

Specialty/Other

62

D.36 Pie Chart U.S Shop-Fabricated Patio and Terrace Doors

Segmented by Door Type

2013

Hinged

Sliding

63

D.37 Table U.S. Window Usage in Nonresidential Buildings – 2009-2016F

New Construction

Remodeling & Replacement

64

E E.1 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors


2009 - 2013

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Steel

Fiberglass

Other

66

E.2 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors

Segmented by Construction Type and Framing Material

2011 and 2013

New Construction, Remodeland Replacement

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Steel

Fiberglass

Other

67

E.3 & E.4. Pie

Charts Patio Doors by Framing Material

2011 and 2013

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Steel

Fiberglass

Other

68

E.5 Table

Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors

Segmented by Application and Framing Material

2011 and 2013

Hinged and Sliding

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Steel

Fiberglass

Others

69

E (cont.)

E.6 Table Total U.S. Sliding and Hinged Patio Doors

Segmented by Number of Panels

2011 and 2013

One Panel, Two Paneland Three or More Panels

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Steel

Fiberglass

Others

70

E.7 Table Total U.S. Market for Residential Patio Doors

Segmented by Low-E Usage and Technology

2011 and 2013

Clear, Tinted, Reflective and low-E

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Steel

Fiberglass

Others

71

E.8 Table Wood Patio Doors

Segmented by Cladding and Type of Door

2011 and 2013

Hinged and Sliding

Clad

Non-Clad

72

E.9 Pie Chart Non-Clad Wood Patio Doors

Segmented by Finish Type

2013

Primed/Painted

Natural Finish

No Finish

73

E.10 Table Wood Patio Door Lumber Type

Segmented by Wood Species

2013

Ponderosa Pine

Southern Yellow Pine

Radiata Pine

White Pine

Fir/Hemlock

Oak

Other Softwoods

Other Hardwoods

73

E.11 Table Residential Patio Door Market

2007 – 2016F

New Construction

Remodel and Replacement

74

F F.1 Table Residential-Type Skylights (Including Light Commercial)

2007 – 2013

New Construction

Remodel/Replacement

76

F.2 Table Skylights by Type and Application

2013

Plastic Glazed Skylight and Glass Glazed Skylight

Residential

Light Commercial

76

F.3 Pie Chart Total Market for Skylights by Type

2011 and 2013

Glass Glazed Skylights

Plastic Glazed Skylights

77

F.4 Pie Chart Plastic Glazed Skylights by Type

2013

Acrylic

Polycarbonate

78

F. 5 Pie Chart Plastic Glazed Skylights by Type

2013

Translucent/Diffusing

Tinted/Colored

Clear

78

F.6 Pie Chart Glass Glazed Skylights by Type

2013

Low E

Clear

Tinted

Reflective

79

F.7 Pie Chart Residential-Type Skylights by Framing Material

2013

Vinyl

Aluminum

Wood and Clad wood

Frameless / Other

80

F.8 Table Residential-Type Skylights by Type and Application

2013

Plastic Glazed Skylights and Glass Glazed Skylights

Fixed

Venting

Venting – Motorized/Operable

81

F.9 Table Forecast of Residential-Type Skylights

2012 – 2016F

New

Remodeling / Replacement

81

Appendix

A

APDX-A.1

Map

APDX-A.2

Table

Eleven U.S. Census Regions

Four to Eleven Region Conversion and Abbreviation Definitions

Appendix

B

Table U.S. Entry Door Market Segmented by Application and Estimated

Geographic Segmentation

2013

Residential

Nonresidential

Appendix

C

Table U.S. Conventional Residential Window Market Segmented by

Application and Estimated Geographic Segmentation

2013

New Construction

Remodeling and Replacement

Appendix

D

APDX-D.1

Graphic Conversion: Total Vision Glass Area

APDX-D.2

Graphic Model: Total Vision Glass Area

APDX-D.3

Table United States Nonresidential New and Major Additions

2013 Contract Awards

Office and Bank

Stores, other Mercantile


Educational

Hospital/Healthcare (incl. Government)

Public/Government

Religious



Miscellaneous

High Rise Multi Family

APDX-D.4

Table U.S. Nonresidential Total Wall Area – New and Additions

2013

Floor Area and Wall-to-Floor Ratio

Office and Bank



Educational


Public/Government

Religious



Miscellaneous


APDX-D.5 U.S. Nonresidential Vision and Opaque Wall Area – New and

Table Additions Segmented by Building Category

2013

Total Wall Area and Vision Glass

Office and Bank



Educational


Public/Government

Religious



Miscellaneous


Appendix

E

Table U.S. Patio Door Market

Segmented by Application and Estimated Geographic Segmentation

2013

New Construction

Remodeling and Replacement

Appendix

F

Table U.S. Glass Usage

Segmented by Glass Type and Estimated Geographic Segmentation

2013

Clear

Tinted

Low-E

Copyright © 2014 AAMA

All rights reserved.

This report or any part thereof may not be reproduced in any form without the written permission

of the publisher.

A. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

Ducker Worldwide has been conducting the study of the U.S. residential and

nonresidential window and door markets for AAMA (the American Architectural

Manufacturers Association) since 1982. It is the only program of its kind to have served

the fenestration industry continuously for over 30 years, and it is the longest and most

commonly referenced research program in the industry. This particular study details

market volumes and trends in the U.S. for 2013, forecasted through 2016, as well as

historical volumes. A summary report, the Statistical Review and Forecast Report, is

also available.

Prior to 1982, studies were conducted for the Sealed Insulating Glass Manufacturers

Association (SIGMA) since 1978. This association is now called the Insulating Glass

Manufacturers Alliance (IGMA). Additionally, Ducker’s fenestration research history

goes back to 1972 when we first developed a demand model for flat glass usage in the

United States. Ducker further produces many syndicated and custom market research

studies for the fenestration and building products markets annually. These include the

annual studies of the North American Flat Glass Market Study and a bi-annual study of

the Northern American Fabricated Glass Market, among many others.

This following report is the result of a combined market study and a database analysis

funded by AAMA. The intent of this study is to develop a full database and a

comprehensive report on all segments of the window and door market. The database is

designed to be utilized for studies into the foreseeable future and to compare ongoing

trends.

1. Methodology The role of Ducker Worldwide is to combine primary and secondary market research efforts with its own body of knowledge to profile and track residential and nonresidential segments of fenestration market volume. As a major input to the research, Ducker receives confidential disclosures from AAMA members along with non-members. However, multiple industry sources, such as demand models, raw material and component suppliers and internal databases, are necessary and consistently used to triangulate market statistics.

Public databases are also utilized, such as the U.S. Bureau of Census and other sources of construction metrics. In addition, Ducker interviewed several hundred home builders, contractors, installers and distributors, which help to develop indicative product usage factors and channel flow as a cross reference to the various manufacturers’ input. This report, the U.S. National Statistical Review and Forecast and associated regional reports were prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice, as additional information becomes available. Any interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of those using the report. Reproduction without the explicit, written consent of Ducker Worldwide, LLC or AAMA is strictly prohibited. The metrics published throughout the report represent the best judgment of Ducker through March of 2013. However, the Census or other sources of construction metrics frequently do not finalize their 2013 data totals until late into 2013, and they also will revise historical information. Ducker takes into account these historical revisions when updating models and thus minor differences between published construction data may occur. These revisions do not impact market size estimates for fenestration categories unless stated throughout the report. Please note that while all individual numbers are accurate as rounded, totals may not always add due to rounding.

The following report represents our research and analytical efforts beginning in

late 2013.

2. Purpose The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive single report detailing the window and door market for AAMA.

3. Methodology and Timeline Study findings are based upon disclosures from window and door manufacturers, suppliers, secondary construction data metrics and our prior database and experience in providing this information in the past. Study findings are segmented by geographic region as illustrated in Appendix A to this report. The research program for AAMA spans from December 2013 through April 2014. A timeline is provided on the following page as

Exhibit A.1. Exhibit A.1

Program Timeline

2013 – 2014

Program Draft Report Approval Report Publication

December 2013 late-March, 2014 end-April, 2014

For purposes of presenting data in this report, the term Exhibits will be used to display all graphics, charts and tables.

4. Terminology Certain terms are used throughout the report which may require definition. Also, in our analysis, assumptions are made regarding units and construction activity. The following is a list of definitions and assumptions used in the development of this report. Specific questions on terminology throughout the report can also be directed to Ducker Worldwide, LLC. Bifold Door: An interior application utilizing two or more individual door leafs, conjoined with hinges, which operate on a sliding track. A bifold door is primarily a form of a closet door. However, bifold doors do not include folding doors or overlapping sliding doors. Bifold door volume counted on a per leaf basis. Included in interior door volume. Closet Doors: An interior door used for passage from room or hallway to closet. Included in interior door volume, but not reported separately. Doors: Units are defined as actual door slabs and panels, rather

Kick-off meeting

Initiate fieldwork

Analyze and report information

Present draft results

Fieldwork complete

Review draft reports with AAMA advisory committees

Make revisions, final edits

than openings where one or more slabs would be used. Excluded from door units are closet doors, bifold doors and service and industrial doors. Entry Doors: A door opening that allows passage from the exterior of a building or home to the interior. In the residential market, hinged rear entrance doors connecting an attached garage to a home are included, while patio doors are excluded and reported separately. In the nonresidential market, entry doors also include vestibule doors. Flush Door Construction: A method of door construction whereby a thin face material is attached to a light internal frame (often made of wood). Face material may include high density fiberboard, steel, wood veneer, MDO, or other products. Framing: Metal, wood, fiberglass, vinyl, or composite members comprising the window. In operable windows, framing members include both a operational portion and fixed portion of the window. Insulating Glass: A combination of two or more panes of glass with a hermetically sealed air space between the panes of glass separated by a spacer. This space may or may not be filled with an inert gas, such as argon. Interior Door: Includes both Passageway and Closet doors. Nonresidential: Nonresidential construction is defined as all commercial buildings, from small to large, that are not meant for residence. Hotels, motels and dormitories are included in nonresidential figures. Patio Doors: Units are defined as openings at the manufacturer level, to avoid double counting units due to multiple operable, or inoperable panels. For example, a double French door and a triple panel sliding door are all considered one unit. Figures in this report identify units with single panels and multiple panels alike as one singular unit. Further segmentation by number of panels in detailed in the Patio Door section of this report. Passageway Doors: An interior door used for passage from room or hallway to room. Excluded from this are garage hinged and service doors. Residential: Residential construction is defined as dwelling units:

single-family attached, single-family detached, multi-family and manufactured homes. Apartment buildings, although considered commercial construction, are included in our residential figures, except for high rise construction which uses commercial shop fabricated windows. Stile and Rail Door Construction: A traditional method of construction for wood doors whereby the structural components are exposed. Structural components include wood stiles (vertical beams) and rails (horizontal beams), which encompass wood panels. Stiles and rails are held together using glue and dowel pins, while panels often “float” within channels grooved into the stile and rail components. Skylights: Standardized unit specified by product. Not included in window volumes. Sloped Glazing: Nonstandard specification, also called custom skylights or monumental glazing. This product is captured in curtain wall data, but not segmented out. Does not include sunrooms, which are a separate category. Study Regions: Eleven geographic regions are used throughout the report. Appendix A to this report illustrates the definition of these regions. Sunrooms: Separate classification from sloped glazing. Not included in window volumes, but some windows may be ultimately destined for use in a sunroom. Vision Glass Area: Unless otherwise noted, glass area figures are surface measure of vision glass area. Figures for spandrel glass materials also are surface measured. Windows: Units are defined as openings at the manufacturer level. However, the definition of a unit differs among manufacturers (e.g., a bay window to some may be three openings while to others it may be one). This does not account for multiple windows that are nailed together at the distributor level for one opening. Figures in this report more closely reflect units at the manufacturer level, rather than openings at the job site. Sliding and hinged patio or French doors are considered a separate market from windows.

* * *

2013/2014 U.S. National Statistical Review and Forecast – April 2014

Forecast: Ducker Worldwide LLC

Copyright © 2014- Published by:

Researched and Edited in March 2014 by:

Ducker Worldwide, LLC

1250 Maplelawn Dr.

Troy, MI 48084

(248) 644-0086

www.ducker.com

Introduction

Market estimates in the U.S. Industry Statistical Review

and Forecast are driven not only by statistics published by

the Census Bureau and other construction statistics

organizations, but also from primary interviews with

leading manufacturers of windows, doors and skylights, as

well as component suppliers. All forecasts are based on

projections of construction activity as of March 2014 and

appropriate usage factors and tabulations developed by

Ducker Worldwide LLC, which is solely responsible for the

data. Any questions on the Review or its contents should be

directed to Ducker. Please note that totals may not always

add due to rounding.

Ducker has been conducting residential and nonresidential

market studies continuously since 1982 for the American

Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA). From

1978 to 1981, studies were conducted for the Sealed

Insulating Glass Manufacturers Association (SIGMA-

(currently referred to as IGMA).

The U.S. Industry Statistical Review and Forecast is

published annually in the spring. Additional and much

more detailed information on window, door and skylight

markets is contained in the (2013/2014) Study of the U.S.

Market for Windows, Doors and Skylights, and The

Distribution of Residential and Nonresidential Windows

and Doors in the 2013/2014 U.S. Market. All reports are

available from AAMA.

Contents

Residential Construction Activity

Privately-owned housing 1

New housing by type of structure 1

Residential construction activity 2

Improvement expenditures 3

Manufactured housing shipments 4

Existing home sales 4

Residential Product Statistics

Prime windows 5-6

Skylights 7

Patio doors 8

Entry and passage door usage 9

Door forecast 10

Nonresidential Product Statistics

Entry door usage 9

Door forecast 10

Insulating glass statistics 11

Nonresidential Construction Activity

Contract awards 12-13

Regional construction 14

Window usage 15-16

U.S. Map of Geographic Division 17


Schaumburg, Illinois 60173

Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774

www.aamanet.org

Executive Report

The Distribution of Residential and Nonresidential Windows and Doors in the 2013 U.S. Market

Copyright © 2014 - Published April 2014 by


Schaumburg, Illinois 60173 Tel: (847) 303-5664/Fax: (847) 303-5774

www.aamanet.org

Researched by: Ducker Research Company, Inc. 1250 Maplelawn Troy, MI 48084 (248) 644-0086 www.ducker.com

1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section Description Page I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................4 II. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY ..........................................6

A. Introduction

B. Study Objectives

C. Study Methodology III. CHANNEL MEMBER DEFINITIONS AND PROFILES ......................9

A. Characteristics of Channel Members

B. Characteristic Definitions

C. Distributor Profiles IV. PRODUCT FLOW ANALYSIS ......................................................... 25

A. Market Size

B. Distribution Discussion

C. Windows

D. Patio Doors

E. Entry Doors V. ISSUES AND TRENDS .................................................................... 55

A. Channel Member Trends

B. Regional Trends VI. NONRESIDENTIAL WINDOWS AND DOORS ................................ 59

A. Nonresidential Windows and Glazing

B. Nonresidential Windows and Glazing Supply Channel Chain Definitions

C. Nonresidential Window Distribution Analysis

D. Nonresidential Door Channel Member Definitions

E. Nonresidential Door Distribution Analysis

2

INDEX OF EXHIBITS

Exhibit Title Page Number

III.1 Definitions – Categorizing Process .............................................................. 10

III.2 Millwork Wholesaler Profile .......................................................................... 13

III.3 Big Box Profile .............................................................................................. 16

III.4 Lumberyard Profile ....................................................................................... 18

III.6 Shortline Distributor Profile ........................................................................... 20

III.7 Specialty Retailer Profile .............................................................................. 22

III.8 Summary of Distribution Definitions ............................................................. 24

IV.1 2013 Market Size - Residential .................................................................... 25

IV.2 2013 Windows – Manufacturer Direct .......................................................... 27

IV.3 2013 Windows – Secondary Distribution Channels ...................................... 28

IV.4 2013 Windows - Total Volume by Channel Distribution ............................... 29

IV.5 2013 Millwork Wholesaler – Actual Window Purchases and Sales .............. 30

IV.6 2013 Big Box – Actual Window Purchases and Sales ................................. 31

IV.7 2013 Lumberyard – Actual Window Purchases and Sales ........................... 32

IV.9 2013 Shortline Distributor – Actual Window Purchases and Sales .............. 33

IV.10 2013 Specialty Retailer – Actual Window Purchases and Sales .................. 34

IV.11 2013 Summary of Window Volumes – Segmented by End User ................. 35

IV.12 2013 Summary of Window Volumes – Segmented by Construction Type ... 36

IV.13 2013 Patio Doors – Manufacturer Direct ...................................................... 37

IV.14 2013 Patio Doors – Major Distribution Channels .......................................... 38

IV.15 2013 Patio Doors – Total Volume by Channel of Distribution....................... 39

IV.16 2013 Millwork Wholesaler – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales .......... 40

IV.17 2013 Big Box – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales ............................. 41

IV.18 2013 Lumberyard – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales....................... 42

IV.20 2013 Shortline Distributor – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales .......... 43

IV.21 2013 Specialty Retailer – Actual Patio Door Purchases and Sales .............. 44

IV.22 2013 Summary of Patio Door Volumes – Segmented by End User ............. 45

IV.23 2013 Summary of Patio Door Volumes – Segmented by Construction Type45

IV.24 2013 Entry Doors – Manufacturer Direct ...................................................... 46

IV.25 2013 Entry Doors – Secondary Distribution Channels ................................. 47

IV.26 2013 Entry Doors – Total Volume by Channel of Distribution ...................... 48

IV.27 2013 Millwork Wholesaler – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales .......... 49

IV.28 2013 Big Box – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales ............................. 50

3

INDEX OF EXHIBITS

(continued)

Exhibit Title Page Number

IV.29 2013 Lumberyard – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales ...................... 51

IV.30 2013 Shortline Distributor – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales .......... 52

IV.31 2013 Specialty Retailer – Actual Entry Door Purchases and Sales .............. 53

IV.32 2013 Summary of Entry Door Volumes – Segmented by End User ............. 54

IV.33 2013 Summary of Entry Door Volumes – Segmented by Construction Type54

V.1 Historic View of Window and Door Product Distribution Channel Characteristics ............................................................................................. 57

V.2 Historic View of Window and Door Product

Distribution Flow – 2003-2013 ...................................................................... 58

VI.1 Nonresidential Construction Specification Process and Cycle....................... 60

VI.2 Architectural Glazing Products Supply Chain ................................................ 67

VI.3 Fabricated Commercial Window Supply Chain ............................................. 70

VI.4 Nonresidential Door Product Flow ................................................................. 73

Copyright © 2014 AAMA

All rights reserved.

This report or any part thereof, may not be reproduced in any form without the written permission of the publisher.

4

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The window and door market has continued to grow since the rebound began in 2010.

New housing construction activity has been picking up steadily in the double-digit

growth range, which is driving channel dynamics. Lumberyard volume has increased

substantially within the window and patio door categories, while Millwork Wholesale

share is returning to pre-decline levels within the door market. In contrast, remodeling

volume has been somewhat softer than expected, and while representing the bulk of the

fenestration markets during the downturn, this segment is seeing some dilution vs. the

strong growth reported in new construction. Modest growth should continue within R&R

for the foreseeable future, but new construction is expected to continue growth in the

double digit range for several years.

The window market reached 46.9 million units for 2013, an increase of 16 percent from

2011. Patio and entry doors comprise an estimated 12.1 million units, growing 15 and

11 percent respectively.

Combined residential window/door market volume grew at modest rates, with a

continued shift in product flow at the first line of distribution direct from the

manufacturer. Similar to 2011, growth in new construction drove an increase in

combined volume through lumberyards, shortline distributors and professional builders.

Specialty retailers continued to decline, from 23 percent in 2011 to 21.7 percent in 2013,

while lumberyards saw the greatest increase to 29.5 percent. This growth in the

lumberyard channel is largely due to their primary concentration on the new

construction market, while specialty retailers suffered with their focus on the relatively

unfavorable replacement and remodeling market. These categories are followed by big

box which declined in their share of window distribution by approximately 2 percent, and

shortliners who saw a 1 percent increase. Millwork wholesalers maintained low levels,

accounting for 3 percent of window volume. For patio doors, lumberyards grew their

share to a leading 38 percent, with specialty retailers dropping but maintaining the

second largest patio door volume at 19 percent. Millwork wholesaler as well as big box

both decreased since 2011, representing 6 and 18 percent respectively.

In contrast, sales of entry doors direct from the manufacturer to millwork wholesalers

increased from 35 percent in 2011 to 40 percent. In contrast, big box share of entry door

volume fell 37 percent.

5

The new construction market continues to grow, with approximately 40 percent of

windows, 45 percent of patio doors, and 30 percent of entry door volume ending up in

that segment of the market.

Production levels of window products are expected to continue to increase at double

digit rate over the next two years, driven by the new construction market. Door products

are anticipated to follow suit and continue high levels of growth, with entry doors

reaching approximately 14.6 million units by 2016.

6

II. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

A. Introduction

The following report highlights results of the Ducker Research study of the

2013 U.S. market for distribution of windows and doors. This research effort is

the ninth report of its kind and represents a complete standalone analysis that

incorporates key market evolution elements that have transpired since the

original 1998 and subsequent 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011

reports on the market. This study is conducted on behalf of The American

Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) as part of the total window

and door program for 2013. This effort provides members with a thorough

understanding of relevant distribution channels and volumes of window and

door products through identified channels.

Our experience in researching and reporting on the window and door market

coupled with an industry need for more thorough information on distribution

channels led to the initial study conducted in 1998. This product proved to be

an invaluable source to leading window and door product manufacturers as

well as distributors. The reports in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and

2011 continued to highlight trends affecting this market and validate key data

regarding volume shifts and changes among channel members. The 2013

study will provide an update to all the previous studies. Each time this effort is

undertaken, further depth is achieved as a result of an increase in data points

and industry participation as well as extensive analysis of window and door

volumes.

7

B. Study Objectives

As with previous efforts, the primary objective of this study is to profile the

U.S. market for residential windows and doors as it flows through the

identified distribution channels. Market size figures for 2013 window and door

materials will be used as well as a three-year forecasted estimate of market

conditions and statistics for window and door material flow. The gathering of

market size figures and segmentations is a part of the total research project

on behalf of AAMA. A summary of study objectives follows.

A major function of the eight previous reports was to develop definitions and

profiles of channel members serving the window and door market. The

preceding studies were successful at validating definitions as well as

providing opportunities for refining profiles and existing data. Profiles for each

distributor type are defined in detail, further refined in this 2013 report.

Product volume estimates through the channels to the end user are based on

2013 market figures for residential windows and doors. Separate analyses for

windows, patio doors, exterior doors and commercial products in both new

and replacement applications are included. Information regarding end users

remains a part of the overall report.

Finally, forecasts regarding future product volume flow through the channels

and anticipated trends as well as conditions affecting the marketplace are

analyzed and presented for each product area.

8

C. Study Methodology

The primary means of information gathering has not changed since the initial

effort due to its success and remains telephone interviews with window and

door product manufacturers, distributors, and manufactured housing

producers. These interviews are augmented with personal interviews and

high level discussions with industry participants during AAMA gatherings and

other relevant trade events from 2005 through 2013, and into 2014.

Approximately 250 interviews have been conducted for the 2013 effort by

Ducker Research principals, managers, analysts and our experienced in-

house fieldwork research team.

For this initiative, approximately 250 distributors and manufacturers interviews

were conducted. Both branch and headquarter contact was made for large,

chain distributors to get both a national perspective as well as local trends.

Other channel members, such as builders and contractors, were also

contacted to get a deeper understanding of product distribution. Interviews

are segmented evenly across the 11 U.S. Census regions.

.

Channel member definitions and profiles are examined in the following

section.

9

III. CHANNEL MEMBER DEFINITIONS AND PROFILES

A. Characteristics of Channel Members

This section of the report provides a thorough definition of each channel

member under study. Characteristics include products carried, customers

served, and market focus as well as additional services offered by distributor

types.

Channel members have been evaluated and placed into one of the five

different distribution categories. The five categories are:

1. Millwork Wholesaler

2. Big Box

3. Lumberyard

4. Shortline Distributor

5. Specialty Retailer

Volume to the OEM segment is also accounted for throughout the report. For

the purpose of this study, OEM refers to manufactured housing producers.

The OEM segment serves as an end user in this case as the installation of

fenestration products occurs at OEM factories with no further channel

member involvement.

Study of the U.S. Market For Windows, Doors and Skylights · B. U.S. CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY 6 1. U.S. Summary ... West Midwest ... D.8 Table Conventional Residential Window Glass Usage

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