17/12/2013
Renewable energy and sustainable energy balances
Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok@kornelisblok
© ECOFYS | |
The growth of renewable energy ….
>What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?
>How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?
>How to incentivize renewable energy?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok2
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What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok3
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Renewable energy: 40% in 2030
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok4
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
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Renewable energy by sector
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok5
Buildings
Manufacturing industry
Transport
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
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Investments and return-on-investment(energy efficiency + renewable energy)
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok6
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok7
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Germany, business-as-used-to-be
11/12/20138 Kees van der Leun
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Germany, the new world (June 2013!)
11/12/20139 Kees van der Leun
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Germany, prices-as-used-to-be
11/12/201310 Kees van der Leun
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Germany, prices in the new world (June 2013!)
11/12/201311 Kees van der Leun
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Flexibility options for power systems
21/04/2312
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The impact of grid constraints
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok13
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Grid constraints and total system costs
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok14
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How to incentivize renewable energy?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok15
© ECOFYS | | 21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse
Still diversity of support schemes in Europe but with some converging trends
Source: Ecofys based onRagwitz et al. (2012). RE-Shaping Ecofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.
© ECOFYS | | 21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse
The MS are currently on track with their 2011/2012 trajectory but projections do not look good for 2020
Source: Ecofys based onEcofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.
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Lessons from MS experience tell us how to design effective and efficient RES-E support schemes
21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse
Provide reliable framework: frequent and unexpected policy changes undermine investor confidence
• Policy changes transparent and predictable (e.g. automatic degression, clear formula for quota setting, pre-set revision agenda)
• No retroactive changes• Long term political commitment• Guarantee support level for long term • Consultation with stakeholders
Lessons learnt Best practice design criteria
Reflect and limit investment risks: risk-conscious (triple-A) policies
increase growth and reduce support costs by up to 50%
• Tailor support scheme to RE market deployment status and electricity market readiness
• No abrupt or retroactive policy changes• Avoid rigid budget or capacity caps• Simple, transparent permitting process • Priority grid access and dispatch• Quota: long term horizon and serious penalties• Government facilitates access to capital (e.g.
participation, financial guarantees, loans)
Adjust level of support to technology and market conditions
• Apply technology specific support levels• Calculate level of support based on LCOE, so
support neither too low nor too high• Planned and transparent adjustments based on
technology and market changes
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Thank you!
Prof. dr. Kornelis BlokDirector of Science
EcofysKanaalweg 15-G3526 KL Utrecht
Phone: 030-6623399 E-mail: [email protected]: @kornelisblok
www.ecofys.com
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok19
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sustainable energy
for everyone
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok20
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Back-up slides
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Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok22
IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
© ECOFYS | | 11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok23
IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
© ECOFYS | |
CO2 emissions from fossil and renewable sources
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok24
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU