TERRITORIAL RE-NOVATION:
AN APPROACH
Shahid Solomon December 2012
CONTENTS
1. Paradigm of the Futurist
2. Why Territorial Re-novation?
3. A General Systems Model for Territorial Re-
Novation
4. Managing Territorial Transition
5. Working the Timeline
6. Seven Steps to Renovation
7. Bio
1. PARADIGM OF THE
FUTURIST
AN EARLY AND IMPORTANT
CHOICE TO MAKE
Feel Good Optimism (transcending risk)
Bright Side of Human Nature
Evolutionary Consciousness
Feel Bad Pessimism (extrapolating risk) Dark Side of Human Nature
Systemic Failure
Rational Optimism (managing risk) Power of Catallaxy: spontaneous order
created by exchange & specialisation (Hayek)
Desireability of Green Transition for Recapitalisation by Global Finance & Technology Multinationals
New Generational Values
Mobilising Power of Social Networking
1. WHY TERRITORIAL
RENOVATION?
TERRITORIES
Include: Regions, States, Cities, Towns,
Districts
TERRITORIES
Commonalities of territories
Systems: social, economic, infrastructure
etc.
Scale: Interlock with smaller and greater
territories (scale)
Transition: Globally progress through
transitions of energy, technology, spatial
structuring
CONCEPT OF RE-NOVATION
Starts with What We Have
Got
Past Aware
Future Engaged
Incremental
Pragmatic
FIVE INSIGHTS OF RE-
NOVATION
Insight # 1: All things are interconnected
Dealing constructively with change implies RE-NOVATION: new contracts of give and take.
Insight # 2: Current reality sets the agenda.
Re-novation starts with an assessment of what is currently working or not working.
Insight # 3: The past is gone… but we feel its momentum
Re-novation looks back in order to understand the present and frame the future.
Insight # 4: The future is imagined …but we feel its promise
By imagining and even designing a future, we can wrap that idea of a future around the current agenda and enlarge the envelope of re-novation.
Insight # 5: All things are interconnected on a moving timeline
Re-novation is a process of constant adaptation around the timeline that we build in our mind.
6. A GENERAL SYSTEMS
MODEL FOR
TERRITORIAL RE-
NOVATION
CAPITALS (WHAT WE HAVE GOT) AND
DRIVERS (WHAT CHANGES WHAT WE HAVE GOT)
MANAGING
TERRITORIAL
TRANSITION
WHY TRANSITION
Global Mega Cycles of Investment and Re-
investment led by energy-technology regimes
REALITIES OF TRANSITION
Blueprints don’t work
Real Transitions are messy, fuzzy & zig-zag
The (perceived) problems and the (partial)
solutions lie in manipulating systems that work
/ do not work and change in interconnected
ways
MANAGING TRANSITION
Drivers: Inside - Out: Population Growth
Workforce Capability
Competitive Advantage
Drivers: Outside - In: Power Blocs
Finance Capital
Networks
Energy
Technology
Generational Values
MANAGING TRANSITION
Levers: Deliberate Manipulation of Inside Out
Drivers By Government to Achieve a Desired
Future
State investment
State Regulation
Partnerships & Coalitions
Forging of rights and values
STATE LEVERAGE IS CRITICAL AT THE
MIDPOINT OF TRANSITION CYCLES
PLOTTING TIMELINE THROUGH INTER
LOCKING TERRITORIAL SCALE
7. SEVEN STEPS TO
TERRITORIAL RE- NOVATION
SEVEN STEPS
(1) Build a timeline.
(2) What’s working /not working
right now?
(3) How did we get here?
(4) Where do we want to be?
(5) How do we get there?
(6) What story do we build?
(7) What do we do next?
1)BUILD A TIMELINE WE DEVELOP THE CONCEPT OF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE TIMELINE AND DEAL WITH
DISTANT, DEEP AND PROXIMATE TIME HORIZONS FOR THE TERRITORY
(2) WHAT’S WORKING /NOT WORKING RIGHT NOW? USING A SYSTEMS APPROACH WE EXPLORE WHAT’S WORKING AND WHAT’S NOT
WORKING NOW.
Economy
Social capital
Natural capital
Infrastructural Capital
Governance
3) HOW DID WE GET HERE? WE WORK BACK FROM THE PRESENT THROUGH OUR PAST TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE SYSTEMS
EVOLVED, LOOKING AT BOTH HOW THE WORLD CHANGED AND HOW CHOICES WERE MADE
(4) WHERE DO WE WANT TO BE? WE REVIEW OR GENERATE ON HOW THE WORLD IS LIKELY TO CHANGE, EXPLORE
POSSIBLE FUTURES AND SKETCH OUT A PLAUSIBLE TERRITORIAL FUTURE WE BELIEVE
THAT WE CAN CREATE.
TERRITORIAL SCENARIO GENERATION IS A BALANCING ACT
BETWEEN
Likely or possible context scenarios over which there is no control
Possible territorial scenarios over which there is some control
Systemic feedback loops between the above
The need for simplicity
BALANCING ACT: LIKELY OR POSSIBLE
CONTEXT SCENARIOS OVER WHICH
THERE IS NO CONTROL
Links world scale scenarios, to contintental, state, bio region, city region,
urban and rural scenarios
Ideally reduced to a central tendency or “most likely” context scenario so
as to reduce the range of possibilities
Generates outside-in Drivers
The concept of transition greatly simplifies this task
Context scenarios set the scene for the specific territorial scenarios
BALANCING ACT : POSSIBLE
TERRITORIAL SCENARIOS OVER
WHICH THERE IS SOME CONTROL
Models inside-out Drivers
Reactive Response and/or
Pro-active Opportunism (Levers)
BALANCING ACT: THE NEED FOR
SIMPLICITY
Understanding and engagement from all types
of role players
Focussing policy and decision making
(4) CONTINUED : CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-
LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:
Deductive Methodologies:
Probabilistic Forecasting
Imaginative projection (crystal balling)
Future wheels
Inductive Methodologies: select most plausible and desired future from a
range of possibilities
Selection of key drivers (lead variables) based upon level of uncertainty and
impact (uncertainty x impact = driver importance)
Generation of a (limited and useful) range of possible scenarios
double variable ( 4 quadrant) analysis
triple variable (cubistic) or multi-variate scenario generation
Modelling Tools
(4) CONTINUED: CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-
LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:
Participative Methodologies
Managed Iterative thinking process with key leaders, stakeholders, experts
Incorporating best practical feasible / workable mix of Inductive and
deductive methods
(5) HOW DO WE GET THERE? WE BUILD SCENARIOS ON HOW OUR CHOICES WILL IMPACT ON THE FUTURE WE WISH
TO CREATE.
THE MOST IMPORTANT, EASILY NEGLECTED SCENARIOS
Model the implications of near and medium term choices for
getting to desired plausible future timeline
Use double or triple variable scenario generation based on
policy or strategy options
Do-nothing or “business as usual scenario” in bottom left
quadrant
Best choice scenario in top right quadrant
Other quadrants represent parallel steps
6) WHAT STORY DO WE BUILD?
WE WRITE UP THE STORY AND CREATE A PICTURE OF THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
7) WHAT DO WE DO NEXT? WE DESIGN OUR SYSTEMS AND SET TARGETS FOR HOW WE WILL CREATE
THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
BIO
ABOUT SHAHID SOLOMON
A City Planner
After graduating as a planner at UCT in 1986, Shahid worked his way to executive level in the City of Cape Town through its various transitions in the 1990’s with responsibilities for most of the planning, economic development and tourism related disciplines. This included working on several of Cape Town’s iconic mega-projects and facilitating local and international partnerships with many organizations.
Development Strategist
Shahid entered consulting practice in 2005 where he has worked on economic strategy, tourism, growth management, integrated planning and foresight strategies throughout South Africa.
He has designed and managed several business mentoring programmes.
A Re-novator
Shahid has renovated two charming old houses in Cape Town, self-renovated many times over and been a part of many big and small re-novations in South Africa’s transition.
At the age of 54 he sees himself as a re-novation coach and advisor.
He is self employed.
CAPABILITIES
City and Regional Planning
Foresight & Scenario Planning.
Leadership Coaching & Mentoring
Programme Management
Economic Partnerships & Development
Enterprise Development
Destination Marketing & Development
SHAHID LIVES IN CAPE TOWN
SOUTH AFRICA
Telephone +27 (0) 71 917 5011
Telephone: + 27 (0) 82 6580 617
Email: [email protected]
Fax: +27(0) 86 773 6615
Twitter: @ShahidSolomon
Skype: shahidsolomon
Facebook: [email protected]
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