QUANTIFICATION QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER OF DISASTER IMPACTSIMPACTS1.1. Damage costs and estimated lossesDamage costs and estimated losses2.2. Dynamic effect on growth and other Dynamic effect on growth and other
variablesvariables3.3. Composition of damage (by sectors and Composition of damage (by sectors and
type)type)Data from ECLAC led disaster assessmentsData from ECLAC led disaster assessments
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2UN - ECLAC
IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005(based on ECLAC assessments)(based on ECLAC assessments)
PERIODPERIOD AFFECTED AFFECTED POPULATIONPOPULATION
TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)
DeathsDeaths Directly Directly affected affected
populationpopulation
TOTALTOTAL DAMAGE DAMAGE (to assets)(to assets)
LOSSES LOSSES (in flows)(in flows)
External External impactimpact
1972-20051972-2005 115,176115,176 35,463,89035,463,890 232,259.4232,259.4 150,335.0150,335.0 80,424.380,424.3 77,221.077,221.0
YEARLY YEARLY AVERAGE AVERAGE (on the basis of (on the basis of
ECLAC assessed ECLAC assessed disasters in Latin disasters in Latin America and the America and the
Caribbean)Caribbean)
3,4903,490 1,074,6631,074,663 7,038.27,038.2 4,555.64,555.6 2,437.12,437.1 2,340.02,340.0
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3UN - ECLAC
DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS (as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)(as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)
AFFECTED POPULATION
TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices)
Deaths Directly affected
population
TOTAL DAMAGE (to assets)
LOSSES (in flows)
External sector impact
METEOROLOGICAL (CLIMATIC) EVENTS
50,424 24,945,145 118,926 73,382 43,304 35,600
GEOMORPHOLOGICAL (SISMIC, VOLCANIC)
EVENTS
64,752 10,518,745 113,334 76,953 37,120 41,621
Droughts 35 2,200,000 10,599 5,888 4,712 3,141
TOTAL ASSESSED EVENTS 115,176 35,463,890 232,259.4 150,335.0 80,424.3 77,221.0
Meteorological as % of total 44% 70% 51% 49% 54% 46%
Droughts as % of total 0.07% 8.82% 8.91% 8.02% 10.88% 8.82%
Damage composition
total 64.7% 34.6% 33.2%
Meteorological or climatic 61.7% 36.4% 29.9%
Non-climatic 67.9% 32.8% 36.7%
Droughts 55.5% 44.5% 29.6%
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4UN - ECLAC
GDP GROWTH RATE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yea
r ra
te
]Before disaster After disaster
Global dynamic effectsGlobal dynamic effectsMacroeconomic effectsMacroeconomic effects Repercussions are felt in the Repercussions are felt in the
national, local or regional national, local or regional economy as a consequence of economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event)the disaster (natural event)
It may last for several years It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / its magnitude and the sectors / activities affectedactivities affected
Are measurable asAre measurable as Growth rate and level of GDPGrowth rate and level of GDP Performance of the external Performance of the external
sector (imports, exports, sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment)transfers and investment)
Performance of public financesPerformance of public finances Price variations and inflationPrice variations and inflation
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5UN - ECLAC
CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formationgross capital formation
**** **
**TIMETIME
GR
OS
S C
AP
ITA
L F
OR
MA
TIO
NG
RO
SS
CA
PIT
AL
FO
RM
AT
ION
ACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATIONACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATION
POTENTIAL GROWTH PATHPOTENTIAL GROWTH PATH** DISASTERDISASTER
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6UN - ECLAC
HUMANHUMAN
-HealthHealth
-EducationEducation
NATURALNATURAL
-Clean waterClean water
-Clean airClean air
-Biodiversity and Biodiversity and ecosystem ecosystem (microclimate)(microclimate)
FINANCIALFINANCIAL
-Access to creditAccess to credit
-Land tenure and ownershipLand tenure and ownership
PHYSICALPHYSICAL
-Type and quality of Type and quality of settlement and settlement and housinghousing
SOCIALSOCIAL
-Social networks (security and Social networks (security and solidarity)solidarity)
-Family ties and extended familyFamily ties and extended family
-Violence and securityViolence and security
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7UN - ECLAC
1
10
100HUMAN
SOCIAL
NATURALFINANCIAL
PHYSICAL
Past Current Mid-term Long term
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8UN - ECLAC
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9UN - ECLAC
PROCESSES PROCESSES (DRIVERS)(DRIVERS)
VULNERABILITIES VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSES)(RESPONSES)
CLIMATE CLIMATE STRESSORSSTRESSORS
COPING CAPACITYCOPING CAPACITY SENSITIVITYSENSITIVITY EXPOSURESEXPOSURES
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10UN - ECLAC
El Niño 97-98 effects in the main economic El Niño 97-98 effects in the main economic variables of Andean countriesvariables of Andean countries
-3
-2
-1
0
%
GDP DECREASE IN 1998
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Perú
Venezuela -40
-20
0
%
EXPORT DECREASE IN 1998
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Perú
Venezuela
0
5
10
%
PREVENTION AND EMERGENCY EXPENDITURE VS. FISCAL BUDGET IN 1998
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Perú
Venezuela 0
10
20
30
40
%
ECUADOR ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
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11UN - ECLAC
Macroeconomic effect: decreased Macroeconomic effect: decreased national growth ratesnational growth rates
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
%
GDP decrease in 1998-9
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua
-0.3-0.3 -0.3-0.3 -1.4-1.4
-9.0-9.0
-0.9-0.9
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12UN - ECLAC
Impact of disasters on GDP growth in Honduras
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Growth without Mitch or drought Growth with Mitch and drought
MITCHMITCH
DROUGHTDROUGHT
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13UN - ECLAC
Impact of disasters on Nicaragua´ s GDP
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Growth without Mitch or drought Growth with Mitch and drought
MITCH
DROUGHT
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14UN - ECLAC
Disasters Impact on El Salvador´ s GDP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Growth without disasters
Growth with Mitch, earthquakes, drought and hurricane Stan
MITCH
EARTHQUAKE
DROUGHT
STANSTAN
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15UN - ECLAC
Hurricane Stan in El Salvador:Hurricane Stan in El Salvador:Breakdown of damage and lossesBreakdown of damage and losses
Sector and sub sectorSector and sub sector
Damage,Damage,
Millions US$Millions US$
Losses, Losses,
Millions US$Millions US$
TOTALTOTAL
SocialSocialHousingHousingEducationEducationHealthHealth
48.048.036.036.0 4.94.9 7.17.1
101.5101.5 77.177.1 12.212.2 12.212.2
149.5149.5113.1113.1 17.017.0 19.319.3
ProductiveProductiveAgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustryCommerceCommerceTourismTourism
21.721.721.621.6------------0.10.1
34.434.427.127.1 3.13.1 4.34.3 4.14.1
56.156.148.748.7 3.13.1 4.34.3 4.14.1
InfrastructureInfrastructureWater and sanitationWater and sanitationElectricityElectricityTransportTransport
105.5105.5 8.58.5 0.80.8 96.296.2
8.18.1 3.33.3-1.2-1.2 6.86.8
113.5113.5 11.811.8 -1.3-1.3103.0103.0
EnvironmentEnvironment 21.021.0 0.90.9 21.821.8
Emergency and reliefEmergency and relief ------ 10.610.6 10.610.6
TOTALTOTAL 196.2196.2 159.5159.5 355.6355.6
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16UN - ECLAC
Impact of disasters on Guatemala´ s GDP
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Growth without disasters Growth with Mitch and drought
MITCH
DROUGHT
STANSTAN
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17UN - ECLAC
Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Breakdown of damage and lossesBreakdown of damage and losses
Sector and sub sectorSector and sub sector
Damage,Damage,Millions of QuetzalesMillions of Quetzales
Losses, Losses, Millions QuetzalesMillions Quetzales
TotalTotal
SocialSocialHousingHousingEducationEducationHealthHealth
629.9629.9545.2545.2 52.652.6 29.129.1
543.2543.2 455.0455.0 9.39.3 78.978.9
,1,170.1,1,170.1 1,000.21,000.2 61.961.9 108.0108.0
ProductiveProductiveAgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustryCommerceCommerceTourismTourism
305.9305.9178.9178.9 75.075.0 50.050.0 2.02.0
1,736.11,736.1 411.8411.8 355.8355.8 564.9564.9 403.6403.6
2,042.02,042.0 590.7590.7 430.8430.8 614.9614.9 405.6405.6
InfrastructureInfrastructureWater and sanitationWater and sanitationElectricityElectricityTransportTransport
1,959.51,959.5 46.446.4 22.122.1 1,891.01,891.0
1,436.81,436.8 43.743.7 16.316.3 1,376.81,376.8
3,396.33,396.3 90.190.1 38.438.43,267.83,267.8
EnvironmentEnvironment 308.0308.0 ...... 308.0308.0Emergency and reliefEmergency and relief ------ 594.8594.8 594.8594.8TOTALTOTAL 3,200.33,200.3 4,310.94,310.9 7,511.27,511.2
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18UN - ECLAC
Impact of disasters on Costa Rica´ s GDP
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Growth without disasters Growth with Mitch and drought
MITCH
DROUGHT
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19UN - ECLAC
Gujarat (INDIA): Total Damage from disasters and Calamity fund budgeted resources (Crores of Rupees)
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
90-91 91-92 92-93 1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
97-98 1998 1999 99-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2004 2005
Total Damage (Crores)Calamity Relief Fund (from Finance Commision, Delhi)Amount spent on calamity relief and rehabilitation buy State Govt.
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20UN - ECLAC
Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, IndiaGujarat, India
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
SGDP with disasters Potential growth without disastrs
Logarítmica (Potential growth without disastrs) Logarítmica (SGDP with disasters)
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21UN - ECLAC
Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by countrycountry
CountryCountry DamageDamage LossesLosses Total ImpactTotal Impact Magnitude,Magnitude,
Impact/GDPImpact/GDP
IndiaIndia 575575 649649 1,2241,224 0.20.2
IndonesiaIndonesia 2,9202,920 1,5311,531 4,4514,451 2.02.0
MaldivesMaldives 450450 153153 603603 83.683.6
Sri LankaSri Lanka 1,1441,144 310310 1,4541,454 7.67.6
ThailandThailand 508508 1,6901,690 2,1982,198 1.41.4
Total RegionTotal Region 5,5975,597 4,3674,367 9,9639,963 1.01.0
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22UN - ECLAC
Breakdown of 2004 Tsunami impactBreakdown of 2004 Tsunami impact
Social 29%
Productive53%
Infrastructure18%
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23UN - ECLAC
Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on main affected countriesOcean tsunami on main affected countries
0.2 1.01.42.0
83.6
7.60
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand TotalRegion
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Total Impact Magnitude, Impact/GDP
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Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual GDP growth in 2004-2005GDP growth in 2004-2005
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand
Pre-Disaster forecasted GDP Growth, %
Post-disaster estimated GDP growth
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2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative 2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative value of damage and losses by affected statesvalue of damage and losses by affected states
545.0
1,057.0
94.0
73.00.83%
2.45%
4.02%
0.15%
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
AndhraPradesh
Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondichery
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
US$ million Total damage and losses as percentage of GSDP
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26UN - ECLAC
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 HURRICANE SEASONHURRICANE SEASON
Island / StateIsland / State Economic impactEconomic impact EventEvent
Millions of US$Millions of US$
Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC 6,0596,059 Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/
Bahamas Bahamas 551551 Hurricanes Frances and JeanneHurricanes Frances and Jeanne
Cayman IslandsCayman Islands 3,4323,432 IvanIvan
Dominican RepublicDominican Republic 296296 Tropical storm JeanneTropical storm Jeanne
Granada Granada 889889 IvanIvan
Haití Haití 296296 JeanneJeanne
Jamaica Jamaica 595595 IvanIvan
Florida (a)Florida (a) 30,00030,000 Jeanne, Charley and FrancesJeanne, Charley and Frances
Cuba (b)Cuba (b) 1,5001,500 FrancesFrances
Total (including Cuba y Florida)Total (including Cuba y Florida) 37,55937,559
a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re)a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re)
b) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include lossesb) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include losses
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2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact of damage and losses by affected country / stateof damage and losses by affected country / state
551 3,432 296 889 595296
183.00%
1.70%
8.00%
10.50%
212.00%
7.30%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
HurricanesFrances
and Jeanne
HurricaneIvan
TropicalStorm
Jeanne
HurricaneIvan
HurricaneJeanne
HurricaneIvan
Bahamas CaymanIslands
DominicanRepublic
Grenada Haiti Jamaica
US
$ m
illi
on
s
1.00%
10.00%
100.00%
1000.00%
Economic Impact, US$ million Impact as % of GDP
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28UN - ECLAC
Damage profile in the Damage profile in the Caribbean Hurricane 2004 Caribbean Hurricane 2004 seasonseason
Composition of damage and losses
Productive Sectors
35.2%
Infrastructure 15.6%
Social Sectors
47.5%
Environment
1.3%
Emergency and relief 0.4%
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29UN - ECLAC
2005 Atlantic Hurricane season2005 Atlantic Hurricane season DeathsDeaths Directly Directly affected affected
populationpopulation
Total Total impact impact
(millions (millions of USD)of USD)
Damage Damage (to (to
assets)assets)
Losses Losses (in flows)(in flows)
Per capita Per capita impact on impact on affected affected
populationpopulation
DateDate LocationLocation Type of eventType of event PopulationPopulation Total impact (millions of USD)Total impact (millions of USD)
JanuaryJanuary GuyanaGuyana Flood due to intense rainfall in Flood due to intense rainfall in December/January period in December/January period in coastal floodplains in Georgetown coastal floodplains in Georgetown and Albionand Albion
3434 274,774274,774 465.1465.1 418.3418.3 46.846.8 1,692.71,692.7
OctoberOctober GuatemalaGuatemala Torrential rains, tropical storm Torrential rains, tropical storm StanStan
1,5831,583 474,821474,821 988.3988.3 421.1421.1 567.2567.2 2,081.42,081.4
OctoberOctober El El SalvadorSalvador
Torrential rains, tropical storm Torrential rains, tropical storm Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) volcano eruptionvolcano eruption
6969 72,14172,141 355.7355.7 196.2196.2 159.5159.5 4,930.64,930.6
July-SeptemberJuly-September United United States b/States b/
Dennis, Katrina, RitaDennis, Katrina, Rita 1,6981,698 900,000900,000 200,000.0200,000.0 65,000.065,000.0 135,000.0135,000.0 222,222.2222,222.2
July-SeptemberJuly-September Mexico b/Mexico b/ Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc.Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc. 6464 2,680,5712,680,571 2,200.02,200.0 1,250.01,250.0 950.0950.0 820.7820.7
EmilyEmily 44 63,30063,300 413.2413.2 322.8322.8 90.490.4 6,527.56,527.5
AugustAugust Cuba b/Cuba b/ Dennis Dennis 1616 2,500,0002,500,000 1,400.01,400.0 950.0950.0 450.0450.0 560.0560.0
Other events a/Other events a/ 1,1341,134 3,474,3893,474,389 150.0150.0 100.0100.0 50.050.0 43.243.2
TOTALTOTAL Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC 1,6901,690 885,036885,036 2,2222,222 1,3581,358 864864 2,511.02,511.0
TOTAL (not including United States)TOTAL (not including United States) 2,9002,900 6,002,3076,002,307 5,5595,559 3,2363,236 2,1742,174 926.2926.2
TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES)TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES) 4,5984,598 6,902,3076,902,307 205,559205,559 68,23668,236 137,174137,174 29,781.229,781.2
Source: ECLAC estimatesSource: ECLAC estimates
Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process by the official technical entitites.by the official technical entitites.
a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.
b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.