QUANTIFICATION QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER OF DISASTER IMPACTS IMPACTS 1. 1. Damage costs and estimated losses Damage costs and estimated losses 2. 2. Dynamic effect on growth and Dynamic effect on growth and other variables other variables 3. 3. Composition of damage (by sectors Composition of damage (by sectors and type) and type) Data from ECLAC led disaster assessments Data from ECLAC led disaster assessments
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QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER IMPACTS 1. Damage costs and estimated losses 2. Dynamic effect on growth and other variables 3. Composition of damage (by sectors.
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QUANTIFICATION QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER OF DISASTER IMPACTSIMPACTS1.1. Damage costs and estimated lossesDamage costs and estimated losses2.2. Dynamic effect on growth and other Dynamic effect on growth and other
variablesvariables3.3. Composition of damage (by sectors and Composition of damage (by sectors and
type)type)Data from ECLAC led disaster assessmentsData from ECLAC led disaster assessments
R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation
2UN - ECLAC
IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005(based on ECLAC assessments)(based on ECLAC assessments)
DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS (as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)(as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)
AFFECTED POPULATION
TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices)
Deaths Directly affected
population
TOTAL DAMAGE (to assets)
LOSSES (in flows)
External sector impact
METEOROLOGICAL (CLIMATIC) EVENTS
50,424 24,945,145 118,926 73,382 43,304 35,600
GEOMORPHOLOGICAL (SISMIC, VOLCANIC)
EVENTS
64,752 10,518,745 113,334 76,953 37,120 41,621
Droughts 35 2,200,000 10,599 5,888 4,712 3,141
TOTAL ASSESSED EVENTS 115,176 35,463,890 232,259.4 150,335.0 80,424.3 77,221.0
Meteorological as % of total 44% 70% 51% 49% 54% 46%
Droughts as % of total 0.07% 8.82% 8.91% 8.02% 10.88% 8.82%
Damage composition
total 64.7% 34.6% 33.2%
Meteorological or climatic 61.7% 36.4% 29.9%
Non-climatic 67.9% 32.8% 36.7%
Droughts 55.5% 44.5% 29.6%
R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation
4UN - ECLAC
GDP GROWTH RATE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yea
r ra
te
]Before disaster After disaster
Global dynamic effectsGlobal dynamic effectsMacroeconomic effectsMacroeconomic effects Repercussions are felt in the Repercussions are felt in the
national, local or regional national, local or regional economy as a consequence of economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event)the disaster (natural event)
It may last for several years It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / its magnitude and the sectors / activities affectedactivities affected
Are measurable asAre measurable as Growth rate and level of GDPGrowth rate and level of GDP Performance of the external Performance of the external
sector (imports, exports, sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment)transfers and investment)
Performance of public financesPerformance of public finances Price variations and inflationPrice variations and inflation
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5UN - ECLAC
CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formationgross capital formation
Total RegionTotal Region 5,5975,597 4,3674,367 9,9639,963 1.01.0
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22UN - ECLAC
Breakdown of 2004 Tsunami impactBreakdown of 2004 Tsunami impact
Social 29%
Productive53%
Infrastructure18%
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23UN - ECLAC
Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on main affected countriesOcean tsunami on main affected countries
0.2 1.01.42.0
83.6
7.60
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand TotalRegion
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Total Impact Magnitude, Impact/GDP
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24UN - ECLAC
Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual GDP growth in 2004-2005GDP growth in 2004-2005
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
India Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka Thailand
Pre-Disaster forecasted GDP Growth, %
Post-disaster estimated GDP growth
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25UN - ECLAC
2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative 2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative value of damage and losses by affected statesvalue of damage and losses by affected states
545.0
1,057.0
94.0
73.00.83%
2.45%
4.02%
0.15%
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
AndhraPradesh
Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondichery
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
US$ million Total damage and losses as percentage of GSDP
R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation
26UN - ECLAC
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 HURRICANE SEASONHURRICANE SEASON
Island / StateIsland / State Economic impactEconomic impact EventEvent
Millions of US$Millions of US$
Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC 6,0596,059 Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/
Bahamas Bahamas 551551 Hurricanes Frances and JeanneHurricanes Frances and Jeanne
Florida (a)Florida (a) 30,00030,000 Jeanne, Charley and FrancesJeanne, Charley and Frances
Cuba (b)Cuba (b) 1,5001,500 FrancesFrances
Total (including Cuba y Florida)Total (including Cuba y Florida) 37,55937,559
a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re)a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re)
b) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include lossesb) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include losses
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27UN - ECLAC
2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact of damage and losses by affected country / stateof damage and losses by affected country / state
551 3,432 296 889 595296
183.00%
1.70%
8.00%
10.50%
212.00%
7.30%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
HurricanesFrances
and Jeanne
HurricaneIvan
TropicalStorm
Jeanne
HurricaneIvan
HurricaneJeanne
HurricaneIvan
Bahamas CaymanIslands
DominicanRepublic
Grenada Haiti Jamaica
US
$ m
illi
on
s
1.00%
10.00%
100.00%
1000.00%
Economic Impact, US$ million Impact as % of GDP
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28UN - ECLAC
Damage profile in the Damage profile in the Caribbean Hurricane 2004 Caribbean Hurricane 2004 seasonseason
Per capita Per capita impact on impact on affected affected
populationpopulation
DateDate LocationLocation Type of eventType of event PopulationPopulation Total impact (millions of USD)Total impact (millions of USD)
JanuaryJanuary GuyanaGuyana Flood due to intense rainfall in Flood due to intense rainfall in December/January period in December/January period in coastal floodplains in Georgetown coastal floodplains in Georgetown and Albionand Albion
TOTALTOTAL Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC 1,6901,690 885,036885,036 2,2222,222 1,3581,358 864864 2,511.02,511.0
TOTAL (not including United States)TOTAL (not including United States) 2,9002,900 6,002,3076,002,307 5,5595,559 3,2363,236 2,1742,174 926.2926.2
TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES)TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES) 4,5984,598 6,902,3076,902,307 205,559205,559 68,23668,236 137,174137,174 29,781.229,781.2
Source: ECLAC estimatesSource: ECLAC estimates
Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process by the official technical entitites.by the official technical entitites.
a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data.
b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.