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Table of Contents
Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. н
Economic Review of 2011 and Outlook for 2012……………………………………………………………… 3
The World Economy…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3
The U.S. Economy………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4
The Georgia Economy………………………………………………………………………………………….. 7
The Camden Economy…………………………………………………………………………………………. 8
Project Overview……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 11
Respondent Profile………………………………………………………………..………………………………………. 12
By Type of Industry…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 12
By Size of Firm…………………….…………………………………………………………..…………………. 13
Index of Economic Optimism…………………………………………………………………….………………..…. 14
Costs…………….….………….……………………………………………………………………………………………..…. 18
Sales and Profitability……………………………………………………………………………………………..……... 22
Employment Outlook………………………………………………………………………………………………….…. 26
Investment, Capacity & Productivity…………………………………………………..…………………….…... 32
Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay (NSBKB)……………………………………………………………………… 37
Desired Programs or Services………………………………………………………………………………………… 39
Economic Outlook for Camden County………………………………………………………………………….. 40
Directory of Services in Camden County………………………………………………………………………... 42
Federal and State Resources for Businesses in Camden County…………………………………….. 43
Partners and Sponsors…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 44
Authors and Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………………….……. 47
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Executive Summary
The 2011 Pulse of Camden is now the second business conditions study conducted in and for
Camden County, including the cities of Kingsland, St. Marys, Woodbine, and several
unincorporated communities within the county. Camden County is located in the extreme
southeast corner of Georgia and is known for its rich history, natural scenic beauty, Southern
hospitality, and the Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay – the only U.S. Naval installation in the
State of Georgia.
The Pulse of Camden study collected and analyzed empirical data, not anecdotes, from
Camden’s organizational executives and small and medium-sized business owners. The
empirical data consisted of the participants’ perspectives on local business conditions and was
gathered from July 2011 through September 2011 via an on-line survey. The response rate was
roughly ten percent, which is a typical response rate for a survey of this type.
Key findings of the 2011 Pulse of Camden study are:
Local Index of Economic Optimism: Less optimistic
Input Costs in 2011/cost expectations for 2012: Increased/Increase
Sales in 2010/2011 expectation: Decreased/About the same
Profits in 2011/2012 expectation: Decreased/About the same
Employment in 2011/2012 expectation: About the same/About the same
Investment prospects: mixed
Program or Service in Highest Demand: Marketing and Promotion
The perception and sentiments of Camden businesses mirror those of businesses in Georgia
and in the Nation. Nationwide, businesses are generally less optimistic than they were a year
ago about their sales and profit prospects in the near term, as well as the near-term outlook for
the economy as a whole.
There are some positive signs, however. The Pulse of Camden study found an increase over
last year in the percentage of Camden businesses that indicated they intend to make capital
investments to increase capacity or productivity in the upcoming year. Nationwide, firms are
increasing their investment in software and equipment, as well. Further, firms in Camden and
the national as a whole are not finding the supply of credit to be a constraint on investment.
The primary constraint, rather, is weakness in the economy. And there are positive initiatives
developing within the community to respond to the economic crisis. These exciting new
initiatives will be briefly presented in the Economic Outlook section of the report.
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Economic Review of 2011 and Outlook for 2012
As we enter the final quarter of 2011, Camden County finds itself in choppy economic waters.
The international economy is weak, with Europe particularly precarious. The U.S. economy is
stronger than the European economy, but not by much. Economic activity in Georgia is lagging
slightly behind activity in the nation, while activity in Southeast Georgia is lagging slightly
behind that in Georgia. Before turning our attention to Camden, let’s review current economic
trends in the world, the nation, the state, and our region in turn.
The World Economy
The world economy is growing, but the growth is weak and precarious.
Economic growth in Europe has slowed considerably. Euro area real GDP grew at an annual
rate of 0.7 percent in the second quarter; for all of 2011, real GDP growth will likely come in
well below 2 percent. Growth has been hampered by the default of Greece and the heightened
threat of default by Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Hungary (the threat of default by Ireland has
diminished). Financial institutions, now at greater risk, have tightened credit conditions, while
the austerity measures adopted by the debt-plagued countries have been a further drag on
growth. The sovereign debt crisis even threatens the survival of Europe’s Economic and
Monetary Union (EMU). Collapse of the EMU would be bad for Europe, bad for the U.S., and
bad for the rest of the world. Countries are not like big companies, and the global economy is
not like a huge competitive market. In the global economy, growth in one region contributes to
growth in others; a weak European economy makes for a weaker U.S. economy. And recall that
the primary reason for creating the EMU (and the Bretton Woods system before that) was not
to promote economic growth but to discourage war in European.
Japan continues to struggle from the effects of the March earthquake and Tsunami. Real GDP
fell by 1.3 percent in the second quarter and will likely be down for the year. The disaster’s
disruption of Japanese exports continues to hobble some U.S. and foreign manufacturers.
China and India, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Chile, are the world’s economic bright spots.
Annual real GDP growth in China and India is ranging between 8 and 9 percent, while growth in
the three South American countries is ranging between 4 and 7 percent. Accelerating inflation
in China and India may induce tighter monetary policy, tighter credit conditions, and slower
growth in the months ahead, however. Indeed, the yield curve for Chinese government bonds
is already inverted.
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Country Numbers
Real Gross Domestic Product
Consumer
Price Inflation
Unemployment Rate
Interest Rates,
government bonds, latest
Qtr.~ 2011* 2011* latest 3- month 10-year U.S. 1.3 2.3 2.9 9.1 0.14 2.21 Canada 3.9 2.9 2.8 7.2 0.86 2.43 Mexico 4.5 4.2 3.5 5.4 4.09 5.92 Brazil 5.4 4.0 6.6 6.2 12.42 6.16 China 9.1 9.0 5.3 6.1 5.43 4.00 Japan -1.3 -0.6 0.3 4.6 0.15 1.02 Germany 0.5 3.3 2.5 7.0 1.54 2.18 Euro Area 0.7 1.9 2.7 9.9 1.54 2.17 ~ % change from previous quarter, annual rate * projected annual rate
The U.S. Economy
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the “Great Recession,” which began in
December 2007, ended in June 2009. This dating is sound. Consider the graphic of U.S. Real
GDP below.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
% change in Real GDP
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A recession is an extended period of decreasing aggregate economic activity. When economic
activity hits a trough and turns up, the recession is over and recovery has begun. Most
aggregate data show the U.S. recovery beginning in July 2009. After falling precipitously in the
second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, real GDP increased in the third quarter of 2009
and has increased in every quarter since. Industrial production has followed a similar pattern,
as has capacity utilization and a variety of other measures of economic activity.
Source: Federal Reserve System
The labor market has followed a less favorable pattern. According to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, payroll employment fell each month from January 2008 through February 2010,
amounting to a total decrease in employment of 8.8 million. Payroll employment has increased
since February 2010, but by less than 2 million.
The recovery stalled in the first half of 2011. After growing at a 3.0 percent clip in 2010, real
GDP slogged ahead at a 0.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter and a 1.0 percent rate in the
second quarter of 2011. Severe weather in winter and supply disruptions from the earthquake
and tsunami in Japan in spring contributed to the stall, as did the political fracas over the debt-
ceiling. Many businesses, investors, governments, and individuals worldwide found it
unnerving that the world’s greatest deliberative body contains a significant number of
representatives who, rather than deliberate and compromise, would prefer to allow the United
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
Index of Industrial Production
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States government to default on its debt. Some equanimity has returned, but damage was
done, and the matter is far from being resolved.
The most obvious symptom of the recession and weak recovery is the sharp decrease in
investment. With the exception of government investment and private investment in software
and equipment, investment spending remains depressed. Total private domestic investment is
currently 20 percent below its 2005 level, while residential investment is almost 60 percent
below its 2005 level.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Numbers
2010 2011:Q1 2011:Q2
Real GDP (billions $) $13,088 $13,228 $13,261 Inflation (GDP deflator) 1.2 2.4 2.5 Payroll Employment(thousands) 129,818 130,757 131,073 Unemployment Rate 9.6 8.9 9.1 Industrial Production Index 90.1 92.8 93.0 Capacity Utilization 74.5 76.8 76.7 Money Supply (M1, billions $) $1,740 $1,870 $1,924
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real Gross Investment, Quantity Indexes
Total Private Nonresidential Structures Equipment and Software
Residential Government
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The Georgia Economy
The recent recession was more severe in Georgia than in the nation as a whole. Between 2007
and 2009, U.S. real GDP fell by 3.8 percent; over the same time, Georgia real GDP fell by 5.7
percent. Consequently, while national real GDP has almost recovered from its pre-recession
level, Georgia’s real GDP of $362 billion in 2010 is still less than the state’s real GDP in 2005.
To make matters worse, economic recovery in Georgia is lagging behind the national recovery.
In 2010, real output in Georgia increased by 1.4 percent, a rate that was well below the U.S.
growth rate of 2.6 percent and ranked Georgia among the ten slowest growing states in the
nation, as shown in the graphic below.
As can be seen above, growth in Georgia and Florida is lagging well behind that in most other
southeastern states. While much of the lag is related to the real estate market bust, some may
also be attributable to relatively weaker incentives for business and industry to relocate to
Georgia.
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The Camden Economy
For at least the past two decades, the Camden economy has been sound, strong, and resilient.
The population of Camden County has grown steadily, from about 30,000 in 1990 to 50,500
today.
Source: Georgia Department of Labor
Camden’s per capita income has also grown steadily over the years.
Source: Georgia Department of Labor
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Camden Population
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
Camden Per Capita Income
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Especially for its size, Camden is a diversified local economy. The private sector accounts for 66
percent of Camden’s civilian employment, while the public sector accounts for 34 percent.
Retail trade accounts for 22 percent of businesses and 13 percent of employment in the county,
accommodation and food services accounts for 12 percent of businesses and 12 percent of
employment, while goods-producing firms account for 13 percent of businesses and 9 percent
of employment. The Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay provides Camden with a stable economic
anchor.
A more direct measure of the strength of an economy is its unemployment rate. Camden’s
unemployment rate has been consistently below the national and state unemployment rates.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Georgia Department of Labor
Despite Camden’s record of economic growth and diversity, the county has been far from
immune to the Great Recession. One illustration of the severity of the 2007-09 recession and
subsequent weak recovery is the recent course of the Camden County economy.
The Camden economy is now following the same pattern as the economy of Georgia.
Conditions seemed to improve in the first quarter of 2011: Camden’s unemployment rate fell
from 9.8 percent in January to 9.0 percent in April. But whatever recovery there was quickly
evaporated: by June Camden’s unemployment rate had jumped back up to 10.1 percent.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Unemployment Rates
Camden
Georgia
U.S.
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Other economic indicators are not as dismal. Retails sales, as gauged by SPLOST collections,
were the same in the first eight months of 2011 as they were in the first eight months of 2010,
while residential construction showed some improvement: though the same number of
building permits were issued in the first half of 2011 as in the first half of 2010, expenditure on
residential construction jumped 56 percent. Quarterly initial claims for unemployment
insurance have also decreased for four consecutive quarters, while the labor force and
employment are beginning to increase.
Source: Georgia Department of Labor
Camden Numbers
Date for Statistic
Population 50,513 2010 Annual Personal Income $1,464, 733,000 2009 Median Household Income $49,581 2009 Labor force 19,942 August 2011 Employment 17,910 August 2011 Unemployment 2,032 August 2011 Unemployment rate 10.2 August 2011 Initial UI Claims 190 August 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance - Camden
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Pulse of Camden: Project Overview
Brief Description
The Pulse of Camden is a study conducted to inform and support businesses in Camden County.
The objective of the project is to empirically capture the perceptions of local business leaders
regarding past, current, and future business conditions and economic trends in Camden County.
The aggregated results of the study can assist local businesses betterunderstand how their
peers and customers perceive the business environment and thus be a tool for planning. The
results can also be used to develop trend data and to enhance our understanding of the local
economy.
Sampling
More than 1,500 licensed businesses operate in Camden County. A total of 116 members of
the Camden business community participated in the Pulse of Camden study.
Response
The responses are categorized in two ways: by type of industry and by size of firm. The industry
classifications are manufacturing, retail, hospitality, professional services, trades, and other
industry. Firm size is measured by the number of full-time employees (FTEs), with categories of
1 FTE, 2-5 FTEs, 6-20 FTEs, 21-49 FTEs, 50-100 FTEs, and > 100 FTEs.
The survey questions are organized into seven topic categories. Each topic category describes a
crucial component of business conditions and is of special interest to Camden business owners
and managers. The seven topic categories are:
Economy
Cost of Goods Sold
Sales and Profitability
Employment Outlook
Investment, Capacity, and Productivity
Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay
Programs and Services Needed
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Respondent Profile
A total of 116 members of the Camden business community responded to the on-line Pulse of
Camden survey. The respondents constitute a nice cross section of the local business
community, representing both major industry types and as well as a range of firm sizes.
Respondents by Type of Industry
The greatest number of survey respondents was from professional service firms.
Type of Industry Response Percent Response count
Manufacturing 6.0% 7
Retail 11.2% 13
Hospitality 6.0% 7
Professional Services 39.7% 46
Trades 5.2% 6
Other 31.9% 37
Manufacturing 6%
Retail 11%
Hospitality 6%
Professional Services
40% Trades
5%
Other 32%
Percentage of Respondents by Type of Industry
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Respondents by Size of Firm
In this year’s Pulse of Camden survey, 90 percent of respondents represented small to medium
sized businesses. This percentage is by no means unique to Camden County or even local
economies of roughly Camden’s size. U.S. Census Bureau data indicate that 89 percent of
business firms in the United States have fewer than 20 full-time employees, while less than two
percent have more than 100 employees. In Georgia, 87 percent of business firms employ less
than 20 full-time workers, while 4.6 percent employ 100 or more full-time workers. The
business landscape of Camden County, as well as that of Georgia and the U.S., is dominated by
small and medium sized firms.
Size of Firm Response Percent Response Count
Greater than 100 f/t employees 6.9% 8
50-100 f/t employees 2.6% 3
21-49 f/t employees 8.6% 10
6-20 f/t employees 24.1% 28
2-5 f/t employees 31.9% 37
1 f/t employee 25.9% 30
7% 2%
9%
24%
32%
26%
Percentage of Respondents by Size of Firm
Greater than 100 f/t employees
50-100 f/t employees
21-49 f/t employees
6-20 f/t employees
2-5 f/t employees
1 f/t employee
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The Pulse of Camden Index of Economic Optimism
The Pulse of Camden Index of Economic Optimism reflects how optimistic Camden business
people are about the prospects for their local economy over the next year. The index is simply
the difference between the percentage of survey respondents who think the local economy will
be stronger in 2012 than in 2011 and the percentage of survey respondents who think the local
economy will be weaker in 2012 than in 2011. The survey question and results are:
Survey question: Are you more or less optimistic about the outlook of the Local Economy next
year (2012) compared to this year (2011)?
Response Response Percent Response Count
More optimistic 21.6% 24
No change 23.4% 26
Less optimistic 44.1% 49
Uncertain 10.8% 12
More Optimistic 22%
No change 23%
Less optimistic 44%
Uncertain 11%
Economic Expectations
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Almost 22 percent of respondents indicated they are more optimistic about the prospects of
the Camden economy in 2012 compared with 2011, while 44 percent indicated they are less
optimistic. Of the remaining respondents, 23 percent indicated they are neither more nor less
optimistic, while 11 percent indicated they are uncertain about Camden’s economic prospects
next year.
Thus, with 21.6 percent of respondents indicating they are more optimistic about the Camden
economy in 2012 compared with 2011 and 44.1 percent indicating they are less optimistic, the
2012 Index of Economic Optimism is -22.5 (21.6 - 44.1). Last year’s Pulse of Camden study
recorded an Index of Economic Optimism of +9 (33.0% more optimistic – 24.0% less optimistic).
Pulse of Camden
2012 Index of Economic Optimism: -22.5
2011 Index of Economic Optimism: +9
The decrease in economic optimism in Camden is hardly surprising. An Index of Economic
Optimism of 9 is fairly high, meaning that in 2010 Camden business people were optimistic, and
to a significant degree, that local economic conditions would improve in 2011. Those
expectations were disappointed. When expectations are disappointed, they change.
The decrease in economic optimism is hardly unique to Camden County; optimism and
confidence have been falling nationwide. The National Federation of Independent Business
(NFIB) constructs a Small Business Optimism Index from the results of a monthly survey
administered to small and independent businesses across the U.S. each month. In 2010, the
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased from 89.3 in January to 92.6 by the end of the
year – an increase comparable to an Index of Economic Optimism for Camden County of +9. In
2011, the NFIB Index has fallen each month since February. The index reached 94.5 in
February; by August (the most recent figure) it was down to 88.1.
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Source: National Federation of Independent Business
Though many factors are contributing to the decrease in optimism reflected in the most recent
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and our own Pulse of Camden Index of Economic
Optimism, one is particularly important to note. Both the Pulse of Camden survey and the
most recent NFIB survey were administered during the heat of the Washington debt-ceiling
fiasco. This, without a doubt, depressed business optimism.
The Camden and U.S. business communities have not been the only groups of people to suffer
diminished optimism in the economy. U.S. consumers also lost some optimism and confidence
in economic prospects. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Expectations, which is
one of the ten measures that make up the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic
Indicators, has fallen precipitously in 2011. In January of this year, the Index of Consumer
Expectations was 69.3 in January; in September it was 49.4, a drop of 18.9 percent.
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
January February March April May June July August
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, 2011
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Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
Many factors have been weighing on consumer expectations in recent months: a persistently
high unemployment rate, less than stellar job creation, the difficulty of reducing debt loads
when real incomes are stagnant, and the list goes on. But the debt-ceiling fiasco has taken a
major toll on consumer expectations in recent months. From the August 26, 2011 University of
Michigan Surveys of Consumers press release:
“Consumers have shifted from being optimistic about the potential impact of monetary and
fiscal policies to a sense of despair and pessimism about the role of government. Never before
in the history of the surveys have so many consumers spontaneously mentioned negative
aspects of the government’s role in the economy, and never before have consumers rated
economic policies so unfavorably.”
The same shift likely applies to Camden consumers, as well.
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Index of Consumer Expectations, 2011
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Costs
Survey question: During this year, the AVERAGE PRICES your firm has paid for goods and
services have…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Increased 76.6% 85
Remained unchanged 11.7% 13
Decreased 5.4% 6
Uncertain/Not applicable 6.3% 7
Almost 77 percent of respondents in the Camden County region indicated that the average
prices their firm has paid for inputs to production have increased, while only 5 percent reported
input price decreases. This is remarkably close to what last year’s Pulse of Camden
respondents expected would happen to input prices: 67 percent expected input prices to be
higher in 2011, while no respondents expected input prices to be lower.
Increased 77%
Remained unchanged
12%
Decreased 5%
Uncertain/Not applicable
6%
Reported Change in Input Prices , 2011
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Survey question: Compared to this year, the AVERAGE PRICES your firm will pay for goods and
services NEXT year will…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Increase 69.4% 77
Remain unchanged 17.1% 19
Decrease 2.7% 3
Uncertain/Not applicable 10.8% 12
The responses to this question are quite similar to the responses of the previous question.
Most Camden businesses paid higher prices for inputs in 2011, and most expect the upward
trend in input prices to increase.
Increase 69%
Remain unchanged
17%
Decrease 3%
Uncertain/not applicable
11%
Expected Change in Input Prices, 2012
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Survey question: Compared to last year, your firm’s HEALTH CARE COSTS are…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Higher 60.4% 67
About the same 37.8% 42
Lower 1.8% 2
Most Camden respondents reported an increase in health care costs, which is hardly a surprise.
However, a larger percentage reported increases in other input prices (see page 18) than
reported increases in health care costs.
Higher 60%
About the same 38%
Lower 2%
Change in Health Care Costs
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The input price perceptions and expectations of Camden businesses are right in line with
national input price data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) – an index
based on the prices of goods and services that businesses buy – has not only increased over the
past year, the rate of increase itself has been on the rise. The graphic below shows the 12-
month percentage change in the overall PPI for the past 13 months.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Prices of commodities purchased by firms have been increasing at an even greater rate than
prices of finished goods, as shown below.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.2
3.9 4.2
3.3 3.8 3.7
5.6 5.6
6.5 7.0 7.0 7.2
6.5
Aug '10 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug '11
PPI, Finished goods, 12-month percent change
5.7 6.2 6.5
5.8 6.5
5.9
8.2 8.7
10.1 10.5
11.2 11.1
9.9
Aug '10 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug '11
PPI, Commodities, 12-month percent change
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Sales and Profitability
Survey question: On AVERAGE, compared to this year, how do you expect to adjust YOUR
FIRM’S PRICING on goods and services NEXT year?
Response Response Percent Response Count
Increase them 28.0% 30
They’ll remain the same 45.8% 49
Decrease them 6.5% 7
Uncertain/Not applicable 19.6% 21
Almost half of respondents do not expect to raise their prices in 2012. Almost 30 percent
expect to raise their prices next year, while less than 10 percent expect to decrease them.
Increase them 28%
They'll remain unchanged
46%
Decrease them 6%
Uncertain/Not applicable
20%
Expected Adjustments to Prices of Goods and Services in 2012
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Survey question: Please indicate the level of your organization’s SALES and PROFITS.
Level of Sales and Profits Much higher
Higher About
the same Lower
Much lower
Uncertain/ Not
applicable
Compared to last year, your firm’s SALES for THIS YEAR are…
1.9% (2)
23.4% (25)
21.5% (23)
33.6% (36)
8.4% (9)
11.2% (12)
Compared to this year, your firm’s SALES for NEXT YEAR are expected to be…
4.7% (5)
23.4% (25)
43.0% (46)
10.3% (11)
2.8% (3)
15.9% (17)
Compared to last year, your firm’s PROFITS for THIS YEAR are…
0.9% (1)
19.6% (21)
26.2% (28)
30.8% (33)
13.1% (14)
9.3% (10)
Compared to this year, your firm’s PROFITS for NEXT YEAR are expected to be…
2.8% (3)
20.6% (22)
41.1% (44)
15.0% (16)
4.7% (5)
15.9% (17)
Some firms thrive even in a weak economy. Of this year’s Pulse of Camden respondents, 25
percent had higher or much higher sales in 2011 than in 2010, while 20 percent had higher or
much higher profits in 2011 than in 2010. As we would expect, however, a larger percentage of
Camden businesses reported decreases in sales (42 percent) and profits (44 percent) in 2011
from 2010. Considering the increases in input prices that Camden businesses encountered this
year (see again pages 18, 20, and 21 of this report), it is surprising that more Camden firms did
not report decreases in profits.
How did 2011 sales and profits for Camden businesses stack up against the sales and profits
that Camden businesses expected? In last year’s Pulse of Camden study, Camden business
people were asked the same questions as above. The results were:
Expectations for 2011 Much higher
Higher About
the same Lower
Much lower
Uncertain/ Not
applicable
SALES (compared to 2010) 2.2% 27.9% 41.3% 12.8% 0.6% 15.1%
PROFITS (compared to 2010) 2.2% 20.1% 41.9% 18.4% 2.8% 14.5%
P a g e | 24
The difference between expected sales and profits for 2011 and actual sales and profits in 2011
makes the decrease in economic optimism reported on pages 15 and 16 of this report quite
understandable. In 2010, only 13 percent of Pulse of Camden respondents expected their sales
to decrease in 2011 and only 20 percent of respondents expected their profits to decrease.
Actual sales and profits, however, turned out worse than expected: again, this year’s Pulse of
Camden study indicates that 42 percent of Camden businesses had decreased sales in 2011
while 44 percent had decreased profits in 2011.
Unfortunately, the profit trend for Camden businesses appears to differ from that of the U.S. as
a whole. This is most likely due to the greater concentration of small firms in Camden, as well
as the greater concentration of firms in real estate, construction, and retail trade. For the U.S.,
the income of non-corporate businesses, or proprietors’ income, increased by 2.3 percent in
the first half of 2011, and is up 12.7 percent since the first quarter of 2010 and 19.4 percent
since its recession low in the second quarter of 2009.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
Proprietors' Income (billions of dollars)
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Corporate profits in the U.S. have all but gone through the roof. After-tax corporate profits
rose to an all-time high of $1,517.1 billion in the second quarter of 2011. After-tax corporate
profits have increased by 51 percent since the first quarter of 2008 and by 103 percent since
their recession low in the fourth quarter of 2008. In the first half of 2011, after-tax corporate
profits have risen by 4.4 percent.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
After-tax Corporate Profits (billions of dollars)
P a g e | 26
Employment Outlook
Employment in Camden County is distributed across a wide range of industries. The individual
sectors that provide the most employment are the federal government and local government.
The leading private sector employers are the retail trade and hospitality and food service
sectors.
First Quarter, 2011
Industry Civilian Employment
Construction 353
Manufacturing 776
Wholesale Trade 313
Retail Trade 1,717
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 936
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 942
Business Services 638
Health Care 933
Hospitality and Food Service 1,562
Federal Government 2,205
Local Government 2,255 Source: Georgia Department of Labor
Survey question: Compared to last year, your firm’s EMPLOYMENT level THIS Year is…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Higher 9.6% 10
About the same 61.5% 64
Lower 22.1% 23
Uncertain/Not applicable 6.7% 7
More than six out of ten Camden businesses indicated that their current employment level is
about the same as their employment level in 2010. Of the firms that changed their
employment level, firms that reduced employment outnumbered firms that increased
employment by more than two to one.
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These results are consistent with recent labor market statistics compiled by the Georgia
Department of Labor.
Labor Force Employment Unemployment
Unemployment Rate
August 2011 19,942 17,910 2,032 10.2
August 2010 19,858 17,850 2,008 10.1 Source: Georgia Department of Labor
Survey question: Compared to this year, your firm’s EMPLOYMENT level NEXT YEAR is expected
to be…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Higher 9.6% 10
About the same 73.1% 76
Lower 6.7% 7
Uncertain/Not applicable 10.6% 11
Only one out of ten Camden businesses expects to increase its employment level in 2012.
Higher 10%
About the same 61%
Lower 22%
Uncertain/Not applicable
7%
2011 Employment Compared to 2010 Employment
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A crucial element of the any labor market is the prices of labor. Average weekly wages of the
leading employment sectors in Camden County are shown below. Adjusting for inflation and
seasonal factors, the trend in average weekly wages in Camden, at least through the first
quarter, is flat.
First Quarter, 2011
Industry Average Weekly Wages
Construction $691
Manufacturing $1,140
Wholesale Trade $849
Retail Trade $424
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate $573
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services $975
Business Services $681
Health Care $674
Hospitality and Food Service $250
Federal Government $1,074
Local Government $657 Source: Georgia Department of Labor
Higher 10%
About the same 73%
Lower 7%
Uncertain/Not applicable
10%
Expected Employment Change in 2012
P a g e | 29
Survey question: Compared to last year, your firm’s LABOR COSTS (wages per hour) for THIS
YEAR…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Increased 30.8% 32
Decreased 12.5% 13
Remained unchanged 48.1% 50
Uncertain/Not applicable 8.7% 9
Almost half of Pulse of Camden respondents indicated that their firms’ wage rates remained
unchanged in 2011 from 2010. Of the Camden businesses that changed their wage rates, more
than twice as many increased wage rates than decreased wage rates.
Increased 31%
Decreased 12%
Remained unchanged
48%
Uncertain/not applicable
9%
2011 Wage Rates Compared to 2010 Wage Rates
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Survey question: Compared to this year, your firm’s LABOR COSTS (wages per hour) for NEXT
YEAR are expected to…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Increase 34.6% 36
Decrease 2.9% 3
Remain unchanged 50.0% 52
Uncertain/Not applicable 12.5% 13
The responses to this question are remarkably similar to the previous question, which means
that Camden businesses expect the wage trend in 2011 to continue through 2012.
Increase 35%
Decrease 3%
Remain unchanged 50%
Uncertain/Not applicable
12%
Expected Wage Rate Changes in 2012
P a g e | 31
Survey question: In general, your firm finds the QUALITY OF THE LOCAL LABOR FORCE to be…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Good 31.7% 33
Satisfactory 51.9% 54
Unsatisfactory 16.3% 17
Hugely important to the success of any economy is the quality of its labor force. Camden
businesses indicated that, on the whole, they are satisfied with the quality of the local labor
force. Almost 84 percent of respondents rated the quality of the Camden labor force as good
or satisfactory.
However, the 2011 Pulse of Camden asked the following open question:
Survey question: The greatest workforce challenge facing your business is…
The question naturally received a wide variety of responses from Camden businesses, but the
most common type of response expressed concern with a lack of quality in the local labor force.
The most common specific responses were:
Lack of skilled workers
Lack of college educated workers
Poor work ethic, especially among young workers
Being able to retain good workers
Meeting payroll in a bad economy
The responses to the two questions above are not necessarily inconsistent. The majority of
Camden businesses may well be satisfied with the quality of the local labor force. Other
Camden businesses, however, are not, and for those businesses, the difficulty of finding
workers with the skills necessary for the job is their greatest workforce challenge. The use of
Georgia Work Ready assessments would likely alleviate some of that difficulty.
P a g e | 32
Investment, Capacity & Productivity
Survey question: Is this a good time or a bad time to invest in PLANT, PROPERTY and/or
EQUIPMENT?
Response Response Percentage Response Count
Good time to invest 36.9% 38
Bad time to invest 39.8% 41
Uncertain/Not applicable 23.3% 24
Camden business owners are about evenly split in their view of whether this is a good time or a
bad time to invest in plant, property, and equipment.
The weak recovery and pessimistic expectations for the near economic future are likely
weighing heavily on the investment decisions of local business owners.
37%
40%
23%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Good time to invest
Bad time to invest
Uncertain/Not applicable
Good or Bad Time to Invest?
P a g e | 33
Survey question: During this year has your firm made one or more CAPITAL EXPENDITURES to
MAINTAIN or INCREASE its capacity or productivity?
Response Response Percent Response Count
Yes 58.3% 60
No 32.0% 33
Uncertain/Not applicable 9.7% 10
Camden businesses that made one or more capital expenditures to increase capacity or
productivity outnumbered Camden businesses that did not by almost two to one this year.
That is a significant increase over last year, when 38 percent of Pulse of Camden respondents
indicated they made a significant capital expenditure while 53 percent indicated they did not.
This is a positive sign made even more positive given last years’ expectations. In the 2010 Pulse
of Camden study, 34 percent of Camden firms expected to make significant capital
expenditures in 2011, while 45 percent or Camden firms did not expect to do so.
58%
32%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Yes
No
Uncertain/Not applicable
Camden Firms Making Capital Expenditures in 2011
P a g e | 34
Survey question: NEXT YEAR, do you expect your firm to make one or more CAPITAL
EXPENDITURES to MAINTAIN or INCREASE its capacity or productivity?
Response Response Percent Response Count
Yes 48.5% 50
No 32.0% 33
Uncertain/Not applicable 19.4% 20
Another positive sign: almost half of Pulse of Camden respondents indicated their firms expect
to make significant capital expenditures to increase capacity or productivity in 2012, while
about one-third of respondents do not expect to make significant capital expenditures in 2012.
49%
32%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Yes
No
Uncertain/Not applicable
Camden Firms Expecting to Invest in 2012
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Survey question: Relative to optimal capacity is your firm’s CURRENT LEVEL OF OPERATIONS…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Above capacity 3.9% 4
At capacity 27.2% 28
Below capacity 45.6% 47
Substantially below capacity 13.6% 14
Uncertain/Not applicable 9.7% 10
These results indicate that 31 percent of Camden businesses are currently operating at or
above capacity, while 59 percent are currently operating at a level below capacity. While we
would of course prefer to see firms operating at greater levels of capacity, these results show
improvement over 2010. Last year’s Pulse of Camden study found that 27 percent of Camden
firms were operating at or above capacity, while 66 percent were operating at some level
below capacity.
4%
27%
45%
14%
10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Above capacity
At capacity
Below capacity
Substantially below capacity
Uncertain/Not applicable
Current Level of Operation
P a g e | 36
Survey question: This year, your firm found access to credit to be…
Response Response Percent Response Count
Not difficult 20.4% 21
Difficult 23.3% 24
Did not seek access to credit 56.3% 58
More than half of Pulse of Camden respondents did not seek access to credit in this year. Of
those that did, slightly more than half found access to credit difficult, slightly less than half
found it not difficult.
These results are consistent with national data. Of small businesses recently surveyed by the
National Federation of Independent Business (recall pages 15 and 16 of this report), 50 percent
were not seeking access to credit, while only 7 percent reported that credit supply was a
problem.
Not difficult 21%
Difficult 23%
Did not seek access to credit
56%
Access to Credit
P a g e | 37
Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay (NSBKB)
The Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay (NSBKB) is not only a vital component of the nation’s
defense; it is a crucial component of the Camden County economy. To get a better
understanding of the relationship between NSBKB and Camden business firms, this year’s Pulse
of Camden study asked two questions concerning the base.
Survey question: Does your company provide support, goods, or services to Naval Submarine
Base Kings Bay?
Response Response Percent Response Count
Yes 47.1% 48
No 52.9% 54
Slightly less than half of respondents indicated that they provide support, goods or services to
NSBKB.
Yes 47%
No 53%
Business Conducted with NSBKB
P a g e | 38
Survey question: What percentage of your sales/income is provided by your business with
NSBKB?
Response Response Percent Response Count
0-20% 76.5% 78
21-40% 9.8% 10
41-60% 6.9% 7
61-80% 4.9% 5
81-100% 2.0% 2
More than three-quarters of respondents indicated that between 0 and 20 percent of their
sales or income is generated from business with NSBKB. Thus, as important as NSBKB is to the
Camden economy, most Camden businesses have a healthy degree of diversity in their
customer base.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
0-20%
21-40%
41-60%
61-80%
81-100%
Percent of Sales/Income from NSBKB
P a g e | 39
Desired Programs or Services
Survey question: Please indicate if your business would benefit from programs and/or services
in the following areas.
Response
Need/Would Like Support
Do Not Need or Desire Support
Securing Capital/Credit 24.8% (25) 75.2% (76)
Staff Training/Employee Development
34.0% (34) 66.0% (66)
Marketing/Promotion 59.4% (60) 40.6% (41)
Accounting/Business Planning/Financial Counseling
14.9% (15) 85.1% (86)
Facilities/Real Estate 15.8% (16) 84.2% (85)
Business Information/ Economic Data
48.5% (49) 51.5% (52)
Expansion Incentives 32.7% (33) 67.3% (68)
Recruiting/Staffing 28.7% (29) 71.3% (72)
Legislative Representation/ Advocacy
57.4% (58) 42.6% (43)
Business Counseling/ Mentoring/Networking
36.6% (37) 63.4% (64)
Other 10.5% (11) 89.5% (68)
The Pulse of Camden study results above display an assortment of programs and services that
could be beneficial to businesses in Camden County. The results indicate that Camden County
business owners would like more support in three areas in particular:
Marketing and Promotion
Legislative Representation and Advocacy
Business Information and Economic Data
P a g e | 40
Economic Outlook for Camden County
Almost all local economies in the U.S. -- including Camden County -- find themselves in
essentially the same situation: the forces that are restraining development and growth are
totally beyond local control. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the fiscal quagmire in
Washington, the continuing glut in the real estate market and depression in the construction
industry all weigh heavily on local economies, yet there is nothing a local economy can do
about any of them.
Two other forces are restraining local economies. One is the high level of unemployment from
recent sector shifts. The real estate bust and depression in the construction sector caused
many people with specialized skills in those industries to lose their jobs. Real estate and
construction are unlikely to ever be the same, which means workers who lost their jobs in those
industries must find jobs in other industries. If their skills are specialized, finding employment
in another industry is difficult, especially in a weak economy.
The other force restraining local economies is the fiscal predicament of state and local
governments. Most state and local governments operate on a balanced budget by law. During
economic downturns, tax revenues fall. To maintain a balanced budget, expenditures are cut
and workers let go. Such policies inadvertently amplify the downturn.
Camden County knows these forces all too well. Employment in Camden’s construction sector
has fallen by 57 percent since 2007. The decrease in employment in construction, real estate,
and federal, state and local employment accounts for almost 40 percent of the total decrease in
employment in the county since 2007.
But the situation for local economies is by no means hopeless. A local economy can grow and
develop in spite of the unfortunate forces beyond its control.
Local economies can achieve great things when local policy makers and development decision
makers work together as a team for the shared goal of bettering of the community. Local
economies can achieve great things when they aim high: when they seek what is possible and
what is better, rather than more of the same.
A diverse industrial mix is highly desirable. A local economy that is grounded on one or two
industries or employers runs a great risk: if those industries or employers should fall on hard
times or leave, the local economy can be devastated.
Fortunately in Camden County, policy makers and development decision makers are being pro-
active and taking significant steps to help the local economy rebound and reposition this
economy for sustained growth into the future. Some of these steps include:
P a g e | 41
The Camden County Joint Development Authority, Camden County Chamber of
Commerce, The Camden Partnership, College of Coastal Georgia, the Cities of
Woodbine, St. Marys and Kingsland, and the Camden County Public Schools are
formulating a new “Team” approach to fostering economic growth and development in
the community. This Team will bring together the strengths, expertise, and special
benefits of each entity; optimize efforts to attract and recruit new economic activity;
and yield efficiencies and greater potential outcomes for the community moving
forward. The economic development Team was instrumental in recently securing a
Work Ready Region grant from the State of Georgia. The grant will be applied to
enhance workforce quality, indentify demand occupations, and begin developing
training programs to equip the local workforce for these emerging demand occupations;
A new integrated marketing and promotion effort will be explored between the
economic development Team and local convention and visitor bureaus (CVBs) to
leverage resources in a more focused and targeted manner;
The Team has established goals and initiatives to diversify the economy by attracting
more industry, retirement, and service related sectors to the County, and to help
balance the challenges being experienced by the real estate, construction, and
government sectors of the economy.
Providing market data and resources to the internal business community and those
external Prospects investigating the community. Examples of such data and resources
include: this “Pulse” of Camden, annual industrial market surveys and studies, seminars
and training resources on a variety of business topics, forums, and related activities.
P a g e | 42
Directory of Services in Camden County
Camden County Chamber of Commerce web: camdenchamber.com/index.cfm
Do Business in Camden County: camdenchamber.com/do-business/index.cfm Telephone & Utilities: camdenchamber.com/live-and-work/index.cfm?page=Live- Work|Telephone-Utilities Work Ready Certified Community: For Employers -- For Employees For more information call: 912.729.5840
Camden County Joint Development Authority web: www.ccjda.com
Demographics: ccjda.com/demographics.html Workforce: ccjda.com/workforce.html For more information call: 912.729.7201
City of Kingsland web: kingslandgeorgia.com How to apply for a business license, job, etc.: kingslandgeorgia.com/index.aspx?NID=119 Economic Development: ga-kingsland.civicplus.com/index.aspx?NID=87 For more information call: 912.729.5613
City of St. Marys web: www.ci.st-marys.ga.us/index.htm#home How to apply for a business license, job, etc.: www.ci.st-marys.ga.us/applications.htm#businessforms Economic Development: www.ci.st-marys.ga.us/eda.htm#eda For more information call: 912.510.4000
City of Woodbine web: woodbinegeorgia.net/index.php For more information call: 912.576.3211
College of Coastal Georgia(CCGA) web: ccga.edu How to apply to CCGA: ccga.edu/admissions/ Camden Center: ccga.edu/camden/ Support the College: ccga.edu/Advancement/foundation For more information call: 912.510.3300
P a g e | 43
Federal and State Resources for Camden Area Businesses
Federal Resources
Facts & Links about the USA: usinfo.state.gov
Federal Statistics: fedstats.gov
Federal Trade Commission: ftc.gov
Federal Withholding: irs.gov/individuals
Internal Revenue Service: irs.gov
Social Security Administration: ssa.gov
U.S. Small Business Administration: sba.gov
U.S. International Trade Administration: ita.doc.gov
U.S. Census Bureau: census.gov
State of Georgia Resources A small business in Georgia is a business which is independently owned and operated and must have fewer than 100 employees or less than $1 million in gross receipts per year. georgia.org/BusinessInGeorgia/RelocatingExpanding/Pages/default.aspx Expanding/Relocating Your Business: georgia.org/BusinessInGeorgia/RelocatingExpanding/Pages/default.aspx Getting Financial Assistance: georgia.org/BusinessInGeorgia/SmallBusiness/BusinessResources/Pages/default.aspx#financial Government Opportunities and Regulations: georgia.org/BusinessInGeorgia/SmallBusiness/BusinessResources/Pages/default.aspx#government Starting a Business georgia.org/BusinessInGeorgia/SmallBusiness/BusinessResources/Pages/default.aspx#starting Tax Credits/Exemptions georgia.org/BusinessInGeorgia/SmallBusiness/BusinessResources/Pages/default.aspx#tax
P a g e | 44
Partners and Sponsors Camden County Chamber of Commerce The mission of the Camden County Chamber of Commerce is to improve and enhance the economic vitality and the quality of business life for the total community and area. The Chamber serves as an advocate, voice and resource for the businesses in our area and provides partnership opportunities for business, community and government. The Chamber is an excellent resource for current business owners and/or anyone interested in starting a small business in Camden County. Resources include the UGA Small Business Development Center, the Small Business Committee and the Workforce Development Committee of the Chamber of Commerce. Camden County was the first coastal County to earn the Work Ready Certified Community designation. Camden County has a highly trained Work Ready workforce and leads the State with 42 percent of its workforce holding a Gold Level Certificate. The State averages 19 percent Gold Level Certificate holders. Camden County also has a renowned quality of life, moderate cost of living, and vast experience in technology, manufacturing, research and development, and is home to Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay. Located in southeast Georgia, Camden County remains one of Georgia’s best kept secrets, a place rich in history, natural beauty, and Southern hospitality.
Camden County Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors
Christine Daniel, President/CEO Jennifer Lewis, Chairwoman & Executive Committee Alecia Webb, Vice Chairwoman & Executive Committee Jill Helton, Secretary/Treasurer & Executive Committee Bert Guy, Past Chairman & Executive Committee Mark Belcher Doug Cooper Nancy Dervaes Allen Eldridge Bill Gross Artie Jones, Jr. Stephen Kinney Matt Kircher Barbara Ryan Jon Shiels Charles A. Smith Gary Straight Royal Weaver Brendon Winstead
Camden County Chamber of Commerce 2603 Osborne Road, Suite R
St. Marys, GA 31558 Phone: (912) 729-5840
Fax: (912) 576-7924 Email: [email protected]
Website: www.camdenchamber.com
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Camden County Joint Development Authority The mission of the Joint Development Authority (JDA) is to promote Camden County and its Cities to expand and diversify the economy and stimulate the creation of quality employment opportunities to provide a better quality of life for citizens. The JDA is a public authority established in 1981 by state and local statute, empowered with unique tools and incentives to promote business, industry, and agriculture within the county. The Authority is governed by a nine member Board of Directors comprised of three county representatives and two representatives from each of the three cities (Kingsland, St. Marys, and Woodbine). The Authority is managed by an Executive Director.
CCJDA Board of Directors
David Keating, Executive Director
John McDill, Chairman and Executive Committee
Gary Willis, Vice-Chairman and Executive Committee
Jimmy McCollum, Executive Committee
Stan Fowler, Executive Committee
Keith Dixon
George Hannaford
Louise Mitchell
Roger Tyo
John Morrissey
Camden Joint Development Authority 107 N Gross Road
Kingsland, GA 31548
Office: (912) 729-7201 Email: [email protected]
Website: www.ccjda.com
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College of Coastal Georgia As a fast-growing college of the University System of Georgia, the College of Coastal Georgia offers baccalaureate programs of study and pre-baccalaureate programs for transfer. The College also serves as a portal to graduate education. It is the mission of the College to: Foster academic excellence and individual development in a supportive environment
that expands access to higher education and career preparation and enriches student lives;
Investigate, capture, and disseminate 21st century knowledge and skills, blending student-centered classroom education and innovative service learning to provide students with a solid foundation to support lifelong learning and leadership and appreciation for social responsibility, global awareness, diversity, and engaged entrepreneurship;
Provide accessible and affordable higher education to a wide spectrum of learners, from recent high school graduates to returning adults; and
Engage actively in the community and region through many avenues, including professional development programs, economic development partnerships, service learning, public service, early college programs, applied scholarship, and cultural enrichment.
An education at the College of Coastal Georgia is a life-changing experience for people who seek to further their education, advance in their career, or start a new career. The Brunswick campus is located midway between Savannah, Georgia and Jacksonville, Florida with the beaches of St. Simons Island and Jekyll Island just minutes away. The beautiful Camden Center at the Lakes, located in Kingsland, 20 miles north of Jacksonville provides convenient access to higher education for all Camden County residents.
College of Coastal Georgia 8001 Lakes Blvd.
Kingsland, GA 31548 Phone: 912.510.3300
Website: ccga.edu
P a g e | 47
Authors Dr. Don Mathews is Professor of Economics in the School of Business and Public Affairs at the College of Coastal Georgia. Don has published articles and essays in both professional journals and general audience venues. He teaches Macroeconomics, International Economics, and Labor Economics at the College. His primary research field is the history of economic ideas. He can be reached at [email protected]. Jessin Oueslati is an undergraduate research assistant at the College of Coastal Georgia and recently earned his bachelor in business administration degree from the College. Jessin won several awards and scholarships for his outstanding academic performance at the College, including the Henry and Julia Rose Scholarship and the Golden Isles Maritime Club Scholarship.
Acknowledgments The authors sincerely appreciate the support of the many partners and sponsors who made this project possible. The study’s partners include the Camden County Joint Development Authority, the Camden County Chamber of Commerce, and the College of Coastal Georgia. Special thanks go to David Keating, Executive Director of the Camden County Joint Development Authority; Christine Daniel, President/CEO of the Camden County Chamber of Commerce; and their staff members. Special thanks also go to all the Camden County region business owners and executives who responded to our requests for information and assistance. Special thanks also go to Georgia Pacific, Georgia Power, and the College of Coastal Georgia for their sponsorships of the Pulse of Camden.