Release DateSeptember 29, 2015
The GOP Debates BeginLate Summer 2015 Michael Cornfield
Associate Professor
Lara BrownAssociate Professor
Jamie P. ChandlerData Scientist
Peoria ProjectGW’s Graduate School of Political Management tracks what’s being said about the 2016 presidential candidates and their campaigns with Zignal Lab’s real-time, cross media story-tracking platform.
• How do campaign words and messages “play in Peoria?”
Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines
GOP AVERAGES 3X MORE MENTIONS THAN DEMOCRATS
Jul 21 Jul 26 Jul 31 Aug 5 Aug 10 Aug 15 Aug 20 Aug 25 Aug 30 Sep 4 Sep 9 Sep 14 Sep 19
0K
500K
1,000K
1,500K
2,000K
2,500K
Average Mentions per dayRepublicans: 509KDemocrats: 173K
Total Mentions by Party7/20/15 to 9/20/15
Indicates 3 days before/after each debate
TRUMP WINS GOP MENTIONS RACE
Average Mentions per DayTrump 282,042 Cruz 38,786 Bush 36,123 Fiorina 24,065 Carson 22,701 Walker* 20,306 Rubio 15,467 Kasich 13,277 Huckabee 12,145 Christie 11,490 Paul 11,188
Jul 21 Jul 26 Jul 31 Aug 5 Aug 10 Aug 15 Aug 20 Aug 25 Aug 30 Sep 4 Sep 9 Sep 14 Sep 19
0K
250K
500K
750K
Donald TrumpOne-Day Total MentionsFox News Debate: 867K
Candidacy Announcement: 1.517KDecrease in volume: -42%
Donald TrumpOne-Day Total MentionsCNN News Debate: 656K
Candidacy Announcement: 1.517KIncrease in volume: -56%
Total Mentions: Top 11 Republicans7-20 to 9-20
BushCarson
ChristieCruz
FiorinaHuckabee
KasichPaul
RubioTrump
Walker
SANDERS OVERTAKES CLINTON IN MENTIONS RACE
Average Mentions per DayClinton 83,536 Biden 9,987 Sanders 75,920 OMalley 1,978 Webb 668 Chafee 497
Indicates 3 days before/after each debate
Jul 21 Jul 26 Jul 31 Aug 5 Aug 10 Aug 15 Aug 20 Aug 25 Aug 30 Sep 4 Sep 9 Sep 14 Sep 19
0K
50K
100K
150K
200K
250K
Hillary ClintonAugust 6, 2015
223K Total Mentions
Bernie SandersAugust 6, 2015
165K Total Mentions
Bernie SandersSeptember 16, 2015
264K Total Mentions
Hillary ClintonSeptember 16, 2015
189K Total Mentions
Total Mentions : Democrats7/20/15 to 9/20/15
Biden Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb
Trump Bush Walker* Fiorina Rubio Cruz Carson Paul Christie Kasich Huckabee Other GOP
31.2%
12.7%6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1%
9.3%
Share of Voice: GOPMainstream Media7-20 to 9-20
Trump Cruz Bush Fiorina Carson Walker* Rubio Kasich Huckabee Christie Paul Other GOP
57.9%
7.8% 6.5% 4.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 3.6%
Share of Voice: GOPSocial Media7-20 to 9-20
MAINSTREAM MEDIA EMPHASIZES ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES
DEBATES CHANGE GOP SHARES OF VOICE Trump
Cruz
Bush
Walker*
Kasich
Huckabee
Rubio
Christie
Paul
Carson
Fiorina
Other GOP
51.6%
10.1%
7.2%
5.4%
3.5%
3.2%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
1.8%
1.8%
7.4%
Share of Voice: GOP7/20-8/5
Trump
Cruz
Bush
Carson
Fiorina
Walker*
Rubio
Kasich
Huckabee
Christie
Paul
Other GOP
59.3%
7.1%
6.8%
4.8%
3.9%
3.8%
2.9%
2.3%
2.3%
2.0%
1.9%
3.0%
Share of Voice: GOP8/6-9/15
Trump
Fiorina
Bush
Cruz
Carson
Rubio
Christie
Paul
Kasich
Walker*
Huckabee
Other GOP
42.9%
12.6%
8.4%
6.6%
6.5%
3.6%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
2.9%
1.9%
5.2%
Share of Voice: GOP9/16-9/20
Trump
Cruz
Bush
Fiorina
Carson
Walker*
Rubio
Kasich
Huckabee
Christie
Paul
Other GOP
55.4%
7.6%
7.1%
4.7%
4.5%
4.0%
3.0%
2.6%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
4.2%
Share of Voice: GOP7/20-9/20
SANDERS LEADS CLINTON POST LABOR DAY
Clinton
Sanders
Biden
OMalley
Webb
Chafee
50.3%
42.2%
5.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.3%
Share of Voice: Democrats7/20-9/7
Sanders
Clinton
Biden
OMalley
Chafee
Webb
49.9%
42.4%
6.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
Share of Voice: Democrats9/8-9/20
Clinton
Sanders
Biden
OMalley
Webb
Chafee
48.4%
44.0%
5.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.3%
Share of Voice: Democrats7/20-9/20
Clinton
Sanders
Biden
OMalley
Webb
Chafee
47.6%
46.4%
4.8%
0.7%
0.3%
0.2%
Share of Voice: DemocratsSocial Media7-20 to 9-20
Clinton
Sanders
Biden
OMalley
Chafee
Webb
56.4%
21.1%
15.2%
4.9%
1.3%
1.1%
Share of Voice: DemocratsMainstream Media7-20 to 9-20
MAINSTREAM MEDIA DOMINATED BY CLINTON; SANDERS EVEN WITH HER IN SOCIAL
Jul 20 Jul 25 Jul 30 Aug 4 Aug 9 Aug 14 Aug 19 Aug 24 Aug 29 Sep 3 Sep 8 Sep 13 Sep 18 Sep 23
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Net Sentiment by Party7/20/15 to 9/20/15
PartyDemocrat
Republican
Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines
IS THERE A TREND TO THE POSITIVE?
GOP SENTIMENT: CARSON AND FIORINA DO BETTER THAN TRUMP
Carson
Fiorina
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
Cruz
Christie
Paul
Walker*
Bush
Huckabee
-10.0%
-13.0%
-15.4%
-22.2%
-27.2%
-28.2%
19.6%
17.8%
-4.6%
8.2%
4.4%
Net Sentiment: GOP7/20-9/20
SANDERS THE ONLY DEMOCRAT WITH NET POSITIVE SENTIMENT
Sanders
Biden
Clinton
OMalley
-11.2%
-23.8%
-29.8%
7.2%
Net Sentiment: Democrats7/20-9/20
TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE
#2Donald Trump
6,027 Retweets
#1Donald Trump
12,304 Retweets
#3Donald Trump
4,120 Retweets
GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE
#1#1
Donald Trump12,304 Retweets
#1#2
Carly Fiorina3,006 Retweets
#1#3
Ben Carson1,302 Retweets
#1#4
Ted Cruz816 Retweets
#1#5
Marco Rubio796 Retweets
#1#6
Rand Paul691 Retweets
GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE CONT’D
#1#7
John Kasich682 Retweets
#1#8
Scott Walker596 Retweets
#1#9
Mike Huckabee343 Retweets
#1#10
Jeb Bush85 Retweets
#1#11
Chris Christie35 Retweets
DEMOCRATS’ RESPONSE TO FOX DEBATE
#1Bernie Sanders
32,963 Retweets
#1#2
Hillary Clinton5,219 Retweets
#1#3
Joe Biden432 Retweets
TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO CNN DEBATE
#2Donald Trump
8,403 Retweets
#1Jeb Bush29,929
Retweets
#3Donald Trump
6,391 Retweets
Republicans Response to CNN Debate
#1#1
Jeb Bush29,929 Retweets
#1#2
Donald Trump8,403 Retweets
#1#3
Ben Carson2,357 Retweets
#1#4
Ted Cruz1,428 Retweets
#1#5
Carly Fiorina796 Retweets
#1#6
Marco Rubio682 Retweets
Republicans Response to CNN Debate cont’d
#1#7
Scott Walker135 Retweets
#1#8
Chris Christie118 Retweets
#1#110
Mike Huckabee110 Retweets
#1#10
Rand Paul103 Retweets
#1#11
John Kasich93 Retweets
DEMOCRATS RESPONSE TO CNN DEBATE
#1Bernie Sanders
11,673 Retweets
#1#2
Hillary Clinton6,335 Retweets
#1#3
Joe Biden291 Retweets
Final ThoughtsFive candidates benefited from the summer conversation:1. Trump dominated the conversation, but
saw a slight decline in share of voice after the CNN debate.
2. Sanders passed Clinton in share of voice after Labor Day and out-performed her in social media.
3. Carson saw a steady increase in mentions but didn’t see the same growth in his share of voice after the second Republican debate.
4. Fiorina made her move after the Fox undercard debate, which positioned her for a big leap post- CNN debate.
5. Non-candidate Joe Biden had a much larger share of voice among the mainstream media as opposed to the social media.