PEORIA Report 3: The GOP Debates Begin, Late Summer 2015

Release DateSeptember 29, 2015

The GOP Debates BeginLate Summer 2015 Michael Cornfield

Associate Professor

Lara BrownAssociate Professor

Jamie P. ChandlerData Scientist

Peoria ProjectGW’s Graduate School of Political Management tracks what’s being said about the 2016 presidential candidates and their campaigns with Zignal Lab’s real-time, cross media story-tracking platform.

• How do campaign words and messages “play in Peoria?”

SHARE OF VOICE

MEASURING ECHOES AS THE DEBATES BEGIN

Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines

GOP AVERAGES 3X MORE MENTIONS THAN DEMOCRATS

Jul 21 Jul 26 Jul 31 Aug 5 Aug 10 Aug 15 Aug 20 Aug 25 Aug 30 Sep 4 Sep 9 Sep 14 Sep 19

0K

500K

1,000K

1,500K

2,000K

2,500K

Average Mentions per dayRepublicans: 509KDemocrats: 173K

Total Mentions by Party7/20/15 to 9/20/15

Indicates 3 days before/after each debate

TRUMP WINS GOP MENTIONS RACE

Average Mentions per DayTrump 282,042 Cruz 38,786 Bush 36,123 Fiorina 24,065 Carson 22,701 Walker* 20,306 Rubio 15,467 Kasich 13,277 Huckabee 12,145 Christie 11,490 Paul 11,188


0K

250K

500K

750K

Donald TrumpOne-Day Total MentionsFox News Debate: 867K

Candidacy Announcement: 1.517KDecrease in volume: -42%

Donald TrumpOne-Day Total MentionsCNN News Debate: 656K

Candidacy Announcement: 1.517KIncrease in volume: -56%

Total Mentions: Top 11 Republicans7-20 to 9-20

BushCarson

ChristieCruz

FiorinaHuckabee

KasichPaul

RubioTrump

Walker

SANDERS OVERTAKES CLINTON IN MENTIONS RACE

Average Mentions per DayClinton 83,536 Biden 9,987 Sanders 75,920 OMalley 1,978 Webb 668 Chafee 497

Indicates 3 days before/after each debate


0K

50K

100K

150K

200K

250K

Hillary ClintonAugust 6, 2015

223K Total Mentions

Bernie SandersAugust 6, 2015

165K Total Mentions

Bernie SandersSeptember 16, 2015

264K Total Mentions

Hillary ClintonSeptember 16, 2015

189K Total Mentions

Total Mentions : Democrats7/20/15 to 9/20/15

Biden Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb

Trump Bush Walker* Fiorina Rubio Cruz Carson Paul Christie Kasich Huckabee Other GOP

31.2%

12.7%6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1%

9.3%

Share of Voice: GOPMainstream Media7-20 to 9-20

Trump Cruz Bush Fiorina Carson Walker* Rubio Kasich Huckabee Christie Paul Other GOP

57.9%

7.8% 6.5% 4.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 3.6%

Share of Voice: GOPSocial Media7-20 to 9-20

MAINSTREAM MEDIA EMPHASIZES ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES

DEBATES CHANGE GOP SHARES OF VOICE Trump

Cruz

Bush

Walker*

Kasich

Huckabee

Rubio

Christie

Paul

Carson

Fiorina

Other GOP

51.6%

10.1%

7.2%

5.4%

3.5%

3.2%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

1.8%

1.8%

7.4%

Share of Voice: GOP7/20-8/5

Trump

Cruz

Bush

Carson

Fiorina

Walker*

Rubio

Kasich

Huckabee

Christie

Paul

Other GOP

59.3%

7.1%

6.8%

4.8%

3.9%

3.8%

2.9%

2.3%

2.3%

2.0%

1.9%

3.0%


Trump

Fiorina

Bush

Cruz

Carson

Rubio

Christie

Paul

Kasich

Walker*

Huckabee

Other GOP

42.9%

12.6%

8.4%

6.6%

6.5%

3.6%

3.3%

3.2%

3.0%

2.9%

1.9%

5.2%


Trump

Cruz

Bush

Fiorina

Carson

Walker*

Rubio

Kasich

Huckabee

Christie

Paul

Other GOP

55.4%

7.6%

7.1%

4.7%

4.5%

4.0%

3.0%

2.6%

2.4%

2.3%

2.2%

4.2%


SANDERS LEADS CLINTON POST LABOR DAY

Clinton

Sanders

Biden

OMalley

Webb

Chafee

50.3%

42.2%

5.5%

1.3%

0.5%

0.3%

Share of Voice: Democrats7/20-9/7

Sanders

Clinton

Biden

OMalley

Chafee

Webb

49.9%

42.4%

6.7%

0.6%

0.2%

0.2%


Clinton

Sanders

Biden

OMalley

Webb

Chafee

48.4%

44.0%

5.8%

1.1%

0.4%

0.3%


Clinton

Sanders

Biden

OMalley

Webb

Chafee

47.6%

46.4%

4.8%

0.7%

0.3%

0.2%

Share of Voice: DemocratsSocial Media7-20 to 9-20

Clinton

Sanders

Biden

OMalley

Chafee

Webb

56.4%

21.1%

15.2%

4.9%

1.3%

1.1%

Share of Voice: DemocratsMainstream Media7-20 to 9-20

MAINSTREAM MEDIA DOMINATED BY CLINTON; SANDERS EVEN WITH HER IN SOCIAL

SENTIMENTA POSITIVE UPTURN IN SEPTEMBER?

Jul 20 Jul 25 Jul 30 Aug 4 Aug 9 Aug 14 Aug 19 Aug 24 Aug 29 Sep 3 Sep 8 Sep 13 Sep 18 Sep 23

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Net Sentiment by Party7/20/15 to 9/20/15

PartyDemocrat

Republican

Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines

IS THERE A TREND TO THE POSITIVE?

GOP SENTIMENT: CARSON AND FIORINA DO BETTER THAN TRUMP

Carson

Fiorina

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Cruz

Christie

Paul

Walker*

Bush

Huckabee

-10.0%

-13.0%

-15.4%

-22.2%

-27.2%

-28.2%

19.6%

17.8%

-4.6%

8.2%

4.4%

Net Sentiment: GOP7/20-9/20

SANDERS THE ONLY DEMOCRAT WITH NET POSITIVE SENTIMENT

Sanders

Biden

Clinton

OMalley

-11.2%

-23.8%

-29.8%

7.2%

Net Sentiment: Democrats7/20-9/20

TOP FOX NEWS DEBATE TWEETS8/7/15 TO 8/9/15

TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE

#2Donald Trump

6,027 Retweets

#1Donald Trump

12,304 Retweets

#3Donald Trump

4,120 Retweets

GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE

#1#1

Donald Trump12,304 Retweets

#1#2

Carly Fiorina3,006 Retweets

#1#3

Ben Carson1,302 Retweets

#1#4

Ted Cruz816 Retweets

#1#5

Marco Rubio796 Retweets

#1#6

Rand Paul691 Retweets

GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE CONT’D

#1#7

John Kasich682 Retweets

#1#8

Scott Walker596 Retweets

#1#9

Mike Huckabee343 Retweets

#1#10

Jeb Bush85 Retweets

#1#11

Chris Christie35 Retweets

DEMOCRATS’ RESPONSE TO FOX DEBATE

#1Bernie Sanders

32,963 Retweets

#1#2

Hillary Clinton5,219 Retweets

#1#3

Joe Biden432 Retweets

TOP CNN NEWS DEBATE TWEETS9/17/15 TO 9/19/15

TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO CNN DEBATE

#2Donald Trump

8,403 Retweets

#1Jeb Bush29,929

Retweets

#3Donald Trump

6,391 Retweets

Republicans Response to CNN Debate

#1#1

Jeb Bush29,929 Retweets

#1#2

Donald Trump8,403 Retweets

#1#3

Ben Carson2,357 Retweets

#1#4

Ted Cruz1,428 Retweets

#1#5

Carly Fiorina796 Retweets

#1#6

Marco Rubio682 Retweets

Republicans Response to CNN Debate cont’d

#1#7

Scott Walker135 Retweets

#1#8

Chris Christie118 Retweets

#1#110

Mike Huckabee110 Retweets

#1#10

Rand Paul103 Retweets

#1#11

John Kasich93 Retweets

DEMOCRATS RESPONSE TO CNN DEBATE

#1Bernie Sanders

11,673 Retweets

#1#2

Hillary Clinton6,335 Retweets

#1#3

Joe Biden291 Retweets

Final ThoughtsFive candidates benefited from the summer conversation:1. Trump dominated the conversation, but

saw a slight decline in share of voice after the CNN debate.

2. Sanders passed Clinton in share of voice after Labor Day and out-performed her in social media.

3. Carson saw a steady increase in mentions but didn’t see the same growth in his share of voice after the second Republican debate.

4. Fiorina made her move after the Fox undercard debate, which positioned her for a big leap post- CNN debate.

5. Non-candidate Joe Biden had a much larger share of voice among the mainstream media as opposed to the social media.

PEORIA Report 3: The GOP Debates Begin, Late Summer 2015

News & Politics