Optimization for Sustainable Water Resources Management (OPTIMA)
Presentation of Jordan Case Study
Zarqa River Basin
to the
Third Management Board Meeting
May 18-19, 2006
Gumpoldskirchen, Austria
Project Team
Name Specialty Gender
Muhammad Shatanawi Water Resources Male
Jawad al-Bakri GIS and Land use Male
Maisa’a Shammout Natural Resources Female
Sawsan Naber Irrigated Agriculture Female
Nedal al-Afayfah GIS in Land and Water Male
Contribution to WP 01Requirements and Constraints
FEEM
Level of Efforts by UJO 2 m/m
Activities: Stakeholders were identified Gender information were obtained Source of information were identified Data availability against requirements were defined Data constrains were identified
Status: D01 (D1.1 and D1.2) were submitted by FEEM
Contribution to WP 02Socio-Economic frame work; objectives, criteria and indicators
IRMCO
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities: Hydrological Map, Main Cities and Towns, Land
Use of 2002, The location of the Basin in Jordan and some photos were sent to IRMCO for the Poster.
Challenges, water issues, gender issues and other related information were also sent
Status: D02 were submitted by IRMCO
Contribution to WP 03Analytical tools: simulation and optimization models
ESS
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities: Hydrological data were collected and used to
validate the WRM. Many problems were solved with the model using
problem reporting. Wastewater treatment node needs to be treated
not like geometry node.
Status: D03 were submitted by ESS
Contribution to WP 04Techno-economic data compilation and analysis
INTERGEO
Level of Efforts by UJO 1m/m
Activities: The link to this WP has been opened Needs time to understand and enter required data. Many items were found missing; need updating
regarding technologies used in UJO CS.
Status: D04 (D4.1 and D4.2) are due in July 2006
Contribution to WP 05Land use change: remote sensing and GIS data
NCRS
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities: GIS data for the followings were sent to NCRS:
DEM, TIN, LU2002, area location, contours, wells, surface water bodies, administration boundaries, cities, towns and villages, main roads, streams, soils, rainfall and metrological stations, runoff gages, wastewater treatment plants.
Status: D05 (D5.1) is due in July 2006
Contribution to WP 06System integration and implementation
ESS
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities: Able to use the WRM from web server at ESS. Use the forum, problem reporting, access to
deliverable and other tools.
Status: D06 (D6.1) is due in July 2006
Contribution to WP 10Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin
UJO
Level of Efforts by UJO 30 m/m
Activities: The basin was divided into 6 sub-basin considering
topography, rainfall variation and urbanization.
Water supply for each sub-basin was obtained or determined in quantity, time series and location
Water Demand for each sub-basin was obtained or determined in time series and in quantity for each sector.
Contribution to WP 10Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin
UJO
Activities: Data on supply and demand for each node were
entered and stored as time series.
WRM is now operational for the base-line scenario.
Land use/ cover change were assessed from 1992 till 2002 using Markov chain model.
Results of the base line scenario are obtained.
Status
D10.1: Jordan problem analysis due July 2006
D10.2: Optimization results due May 2007.
Contribution to WP 10Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan
Milestone:
M3 PM18: • The case study have been implemented
• WRM is operational for the baseline scenario
• The results of the baseline scenario have been discussed with the stakeholders
M4 PM24: • Analysis of optimization scenario will start after the 3rd board meeting
Performance:
The baseline scenario has been defined based on compiling all data and operating all tools.
Contribution to WP 10Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan
Impact Indicator:
The stakeholders expressed their satisfaction on the approach and results of the baseline scenario.
However, some constructive remarks have been raised and will be considered in the process of updating the scenario.
The stakeholder have suggested some guidelines to build the future scenarios to be incorporated in the optimization strategy.
Land Use Changes
Land use/cover
Visual interpretation of Landsat TM (1992,1998 and 2002) following CORINE scheme
GIS- analysis
Area of each LU/C
Transition matrices (probability of change)
Prediction of future Land use in the basin:
Using Markov chain
Based on the rate of change in the period 1992-2002.
Class Definition
Artificial areas
Continuous Urban Fabrics
Areas occupied by dwellings and buildings used by administrative/public utilities, including their connected areas (associated lands, approach road network, parking lots) (111,1)
Discontinuous Urban Fabrics
Areas occupied by dwellings and buildings, most of the land are covered by structures which occupy discontinuous but significant surfaces. Buildings, roads and artificially surfaced areas associated with vegetated areas and bare soil are also included in this class. (112,2)
Mineral Extraction and Construction
Sites
Areas with an open-pit extraction of construction material (sandpits, quarries). Spaces under construction development. (131,3)
Agricultural areas
Arable lands
Non-irrigated arable lands Rainfed wheat in the high rainfall areas and barley in the low rainfall areas. (211,4)
Permanently Irrigated lands
Crops irrigated permanently or periodically, most of the crops that cannot be cultivated without an artificial water supply. (212,5)
Heterogeneous agricultural
areas
Areas of annual crops associated with permanent crops on the same parcel, annual crops and orchards. This class also included agro forestry areas in Jarash. (240,6)
Forests and semi-
natural areas
ForestsAreas of forests and woodlands used mainly for recreation. (310,7)
Open spaces with little or no
vegetation
Bare rock Scree, cliffs, rock outcrops, exposed rocks and limestone. (332,8)
Sparsely vegetated areas Heavily grazed open shrub and herbaceous rangeland. (333,9)
Water bodies Water bodies
King Talal Dam and Khirbat Assamra wastewater treatment plant. Natural or artificial stretches of water including Qa’a (mud field) and small earth dams were water is harvested. (512,10).
Land use/cover classification scheme
Accuracy of mapping
Accuracy Confusion
classMis-
interpretation Accurate interpretation
# of samples Class
93.3% class 2 1 14 15Continuous urban fabrics
100.0% - 0 10 10Discontinuous urban fabrics
100.0% - 0 4 4Mineral extraction sites
85.7% class 9 1 6 7Non-irrigated arable lands
84.9% class 4,6,6,8 and 9 5 28 33Permanently irrigated lands
100.0% - 0 4 4Heterogeneous agricultural areas
100.0% - 0 5 5 Forest
75.0% class 5,9 and 9 3 9 12 Bare rocks
83.3% class 8 1 5 6Sparsely vegetated area
100.0% - 0 4 4 Water bodies
Land use map of 2002
Class %
Continuous urban fabrics 6.1
Discontinuous urban fabrics 2.1
Mineral extraction sites 1.6
Non-irrigated arable lands 11.6
Permanently irrigated lands 10.5
Heterogeneous agricultural areas 1.6
Forest 2.0
Bare rocks 35.1
Sparsely vegetated area 29.1
Water bodies 0.2
Total area 4120.0
urban 9.9
Irrigated 10.5
Agricultural 13.2
Forest 2.0
open spaces 64.1
water 0.2
Land use of 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Class number
Per
cen
tag
e o
f cl
ass
1992
1998
2002
1992
Code 111 112 131 211 212 240 310 332 333 512
111 1.00 0.19 0.21 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.07
112 0.00 0.76 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01
131 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.01
211 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.39 0.11 0.03 0.01 0.10 0.09 0.05
2002 212 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.59 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11
240 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.83 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00
310 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.76 0.01 0.01 0.02
332 0.00 0.01 0.20 0.25 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.69 0.12 0.17
333 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.24 0.17 0.03 0.07 0.08 0.65 0.12
512 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43
Probability matrix between different classes, period 1992-2002 (10 years period).
LU in
2002Predicted in
2012Predicted in
2022
Continuous urban fabrics 6.1 8.6 11.1
Discontinuous urban fabrics 2.1 3.6 4.8
Mineral extraction sites 1.6 2.0 2.1
Non-irrigated arable lands 11.6 11.6 11.2
Permanently irrigated lands 10.5 10.3 9.9
Heterogeneous agricultural areas 1.6 2.5 3.2
Forest 2.0 2.4 2.7
Bare rocks 35.1 31.9 29.6
Sparsely vegetated area 29.1 26.8 25.2
Water bodies 0.2 0.2 0.2
Predicted land use
2002 2012 2022
urban 9.9 14.2 18.0
Agricultural (rainfed and mixed agr. areas) 13.2 14.2 14.4
Irrigated 10.5 10.3 9.9
Open spaces (non-cultivated) 64.1 58.7 54.9
Forest 2.0 2.4 2.7
Water bodies 0.2 0.2 0.2
Summary of predicted land use
Non irrigated arable land (211,4)
Permanently irrigated land (212,5)
Forest; al-Alouk forest (310,7)
Bare rock, open spaces (333,9)
Water harvesting
In Qa’a Khana
Khirbat es-Samra
wastewater treatment plant
Water bodies (512,10)
Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2006
(Deliverable No 10.1)
1. Description of the case study
2. Water management issues
3. Stakeholder participation
4. Institutional arrangement
5. Water allocation among sector
Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2005
(Deliverable No 10.1)
6. Building baseline scenario
identify and defining basin objects
Collecting input data for supply node
Verifying time series data
Incorporating inter basin transfer
Exporting data into the main server
Building the topology features of the WRM
Comparison of calculated results of the mass balance with that observed at control stations (nodes).
Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2005
(Deliverable No 10.1)
7. Baseline evaluation and analysis:
direct and indirect cost
Cost benefit ratio
Constraints and instrument
Stakeholder view of the baseline scenario
Modification needed to baseline scenario
Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2006
(Deliverable No 10.1)
8. Land use changes:
Land uses by sector
Evaluation of changes from 1992-2002
Prediction of changes for the next 15 years
Recommendation on land use
9. Next step
Future scenario
Optimization strategy
Water technologies
Contribution to WP 14Evaluation post-optimal analysis
COR
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities:X Not yet
Status: D14.1: Decision analysis report due May 2007 D14.2: Stakeholder involvement report due May 2007
Contribution to WP 15Comparative analysis: generic lessons and best practice
ELARD
Level of Efforts by UJO 3 m/m
Activities: X Not yet
Status: D15.1: Case study comparative analysis due May 2007 D15.2: Best practices report due May 2007
Contribution to WP 16Dissemination, networking and exploitation
IRMCO
Level of Efforts by UJO 2 m/m
Activities: Data on stakeholder were sent Maps and pictures were sent for poster production A paper on “Water Management in Zarqa Basin”
was presented in WATMED2 in Marrakech, Morocco, Nov., 2005.
The project has been announced under UNESCO chair web page within the University site.
The Project has been introduced to the stakeholder in the workshop on May 16, 2006.
Contribution to WP 16Dissemination, networking and exploitation
IRMCO
Status: D16.1: project website due June 2007 D16.2: Guidelines for local participation due June 2007 D16.3 Regional dissemination workshop due June 2007 D16.4 Dissemination report due June 2007
Stakeholders Workshop
AGENDA09:00 – 09:15 Registration and Interaction
09:15 – 09:30 Welcome Session, workshop agenda
09:30 – 10:20 Oral Presentations
-OPTIMA project and the Zarqa Basin case study, Shatanawi-Land use change model, al Bakri
-The participative approach, corridoio.zero
-Introduction to the Baseline Scenario, Shatanawi and Shammout
10:20 – 10:40 Coffee break
10:40 – 11:50 Working Session I (Plenary)
-Sharing and understanding the baseline scenario-Planned actions and expected changes
11:50 – 12:10 Coffee break
12:10 – 13:20 Working session II (Parallel Groups)
-Problems and issues-From problems to objectives
-Actions and instruments
13:20 – 14:30 Working Session III (Plenary)
-Introduction of the results-Sharing objectives and priorities
14:30 – 15:30 Lunch
Thank you