Optimization for Sustainable Water Resources Management (OPTIMA) Presentation of Jordan Case Study Zarqa River Basin to the Third Management Board Meeting.

Optimization   for Sustainable Water Resources Management (OPTIMA)

Presentation of Jordan Case Study

Zarqa River Basin

to the

Third Management Board Meeting

May 18-19, 2006

Gumpoldskirchen, Austria

Project Team

Name Specialty Gender

Muhammad Shatanawi Water Resources Male

Jawad al-Bakri GIS and Land use Male

Maisa’a Shammout Natural Resources Female

Sawsan Naber Irrigated Agriculture Female

Nedal al-Afayfah GIS in Land and Water Male

Contribution to WP 01Requirements and Constraints

FEEM

Level of Efforts by UJO 2 m/m

Activities: Stakeholders were identified Gender information were obtained Source of information were identified Data availability against requirements were defined Data constrains were identified

Status: D01 (D1.1 and D1.2) were submitted by FEEM

Contribution to WP 02Socio-Economic frame work; objectives, criteria and indicators

IRMCO

Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m

Activities: Hydrological Map, Main Cities and Towns, Land

Use of 2002, The location of the Basin in Jordan and some photos were sent to IRMCO for the Poster.

Challenges, water issues, gender issues and other related information were also sent

Status: D02 were submitted by IRMCO

Contribution to WP 03Analytical tools: simulation and optimization models

ESS

Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m

Activities: Hydrological data were collected and used to

validate the WRM. Many problems were solved with the model using

problem reporting. Wastewater treatment node needs to be treated

not like geometry node.

Status: D03 were submitted by ESS

Contribution to WP 04Techno-economic data compilation and analysis

INTERGEO

Level of Efforts by UJO 1m/m

Activities: The link to this WP has been opened Needs time to understand and enter required data. Many items were found missing; need updating

regarding technologies used in UJO CS.

Status: D04 (D4.1 and D4.2) are due in July 2006

Contribution to WP 05Land use change: remote sensing and GIS data

NCRS

Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m

Activities: GIS data for the followings were sent to NCRS:

DEM, TIN, LU2002, area location, contours, wells, surface water bodies, administration boundaries, cities, towns and villages, main roads, streams, soils, rainfall and metrological stations, runoff gages, wastewater treatment plants.

Status: D05 (D5.1) is due in July 2006

Contribution to WP 06System integration and implementation

ESS

Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m

Activities: Able to use the WRM from web server at ESS. Use the forum, problem reporting, access to

deliverable and other tools.

Status: D06 (D6.1) is due in July 2006

Contribution to WP 10Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin

UJO

Level of Efforts by UJO 30 m/m

Activities: The basin was divided into 6 sub-basin considering

topography, rainfall variation and urbanization.

Water supply for each sub-basin was obtained or determined in quantity, time series and location

Water Demand for each sub-basin was obtained or determined in time series and in quantity for each sector.

Contribution to WP 10Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin

UJO

Activities: Data on supply and demand for each node were

entered and stored as time series.

WRM is now operational for the base-line scenario.

Land use/ cover change were assessed from 1992 till 2002 using Markov chain model.

Results of the base line scenario are obtained.

Status

D10.1: Jordan problem analysis due July 2006

D10.2: Optimization results due May 2007.

Contribution to WP 10Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan

Milestone:

M3 PM18: • The case study have been implemented

• WRM is operational for the baseline scenario

• The results of the baseline scenario have been discussed with the stakeholders

M4 PM24: • Analysis of optimization scenario will start after the 3rd board meeting

Performance:

The baseline scenario has been defined based on compiling all data and operating all tools.

Contribution to WP 10Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan

Impact Indicator:

The stakeholders expressed their satisfaction on the approach and results of the baseline scenario.

However, some constructive remarks have been raised and will be considered in the process of updating the scenario.

The stakeholder have suggested some guidelines to build the future scenarios to be incorporated in the optimization strategy.

Land Use Changes

Land use/cover

Visual interpretation of Landsat TM (1992,1998 and 2002) following CORINE scheme

GIS- analysis

Area of each LU/C

Transition matrices (probability of change)

Prediction of future Land use in the basin:

Using Markov chain

Based on the rate of change in the period 1992-2002.

Class Definition

Artificial areas

Continuous Urban Fabrics

Areas occupied by dwellings and buildings used by administrative/public utilities, including their connected areas (associated lands, approach road network, parking lots) (111,1)

Discontinuous Urban Fabrics

 Areas occupied by dwellings and buildings, most of the land are covered by structures which occupy discontinuous but significant surfaces. Buildings, roads and artificially surfaced areas associated with vegetated areas and bare soil are also included in this class. (112,2)

Mineral Extraction and Construction

Sites

Areas with an open-pit extraction of construction material (sandpits, quarries). Spaces under construction development.  (131,3)

Agricultural areas

Arable lands

Non-irrigated arable lands Rainfed wheat in the high rainfall areas and barley in the low rainfall areas.  (211,4)

Permanently Irrigated lands

Crops irrigated permanently or periodically, most of the crops that cannot be cultivated without an artificial water supply.  (212,5)

Heterogeneous agricultural

areas

Areas of annual crops associated with permanent crops on the same parcel, annual crops and orchards. This class also included agro forestry areas in Jarash. (240,6) 

Forests and semi-

natural areas

ForestsAreas of forests and woodlands used mainly for recreation.  (310,7)

Open spaces with little or no

vegetation

Bare rock Scree, cliffs, rock outcrops, exposed rocks and limestone. (332,8) 

Sparsely vegetated areas Heavily grazed open shrub and herbaceous rangeland. (333,9)

Water bodies Water bodies

King Talal Dam and Khirbat Assamra wastewater treatment plant. Natural or artificial stretches of water including Qa’a (mud field) and small earth dams were water is harvested.  (512,10).

Land use/cover classification scheme

Accuracy of mapping

Accuracy Confusion

classMis-

interpretation Accurate interpretation

# of samples Class

93.3% class 2 1 14 15Continuous urban fabrics

100.0%  - 0 10 10Discontinuous urban fabrics

100.0%  - 0 4 4Mineral extraction sites

85.7% class 9 1 6 7Non-irrigated arable lands

84.9% class 4,6,6,8 and 9 5 28 33Permanently irrigated lands

100.0%  - 0 4 4Heterogeneous agricultural areas

100.0%  - 0 5 5 Forest

75.0% class 5,9 and 9 3 9 12 Bare rocks

83.3% class 8 1 5 6Sparsely vegetated area

100.0%  - 0 4 4 Water bodies

Land use map of 2002

Class %

Continuous urban fabrics 6.1

Discontinuous urban fabrics 2.1

Mineral extraction sites 1.6

Non-irrigated arable lands 11.6

Permanently irrigated lands 10.5

Heterogeneous agricultural areas 1.6

Forest 2.0

Bare rocks 35.1

Sparsely vegetated area 29.1

Water bodies 0.2

Total area 4120.0

urban 9.9

Irrigated 10.5

Agricultural 13.2

Forest 2.0

open spaces 64.1

water 0.2

Land use of 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Class number

Per

cen

tag

e o

f cl

ass

1992

1998

2002

1992

Code 111 112 131 211 212 240 310 332 333 512

111 1.00 0.19 0.21 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.07

112 0.00 0.76 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01

131 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.01

211 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.39 0.11 0.03 0.01 0.10 0.09 0.05

2002 212 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.59 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11

240 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.83 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00

310 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.76 0.01 0.01 0.02

332 0.00 0.01 0.20 0.25 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.69 0.12 0.17

333 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.24 0.17 0.03 0.07 0.08 0.65 0.12

512 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43

Probability matrix between different classes, period 1992-2002 (10 years period).

 LU in

2002Predicted in

2012Predicted in

2022

Continuous urban fabrics 6.1 8.6 11.1

Discontinuous urban fabrics 2.1 3.6 4.8

Mineral extraction sites 1.6 2.0 2.1

Non-irrigated arable lands 11.6 11.6 11.2

Permanently irrigated lands 10.5 10.3 9.9

Heterogeneous agricultural areas 1.6 2.5 3.2

Forest 2.0 2.4 2.7

Bare rocks 35.1 31.9 29.6

Sparsely vegetated area 29.1 26.8 25.2

Water bodies 0.2 0.2 0.2

Predicted land use

2002 2012 2022

urban 9.9 14.2 18.0

Agricultural (rainfed and mixed agr. areas) 13.2 14.2 14.4

Irrigated 10.5 10.3 9.9

Open spaces (non-cultivated) 64.1 58.7 54.9

Forest 2.0 2.4 2.7

Water bodies 0.2 0.2 0.2

Summary of predicted land use

Non irrigated arable land (211,4)

Permanently irrigated land (212,5)

Forest; al-Alouk forest (310,7)

Bare rock, open spaces (333,9)

Water harvesting

In Qa’a Khana

Khirbat es-Samra

wastewater treatment plant

Water bodies (512,10)

Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2006

(Deliverable No 10.1)

1. Description of the case study

2. Water management issues

3. Stakeholder participation

4. Institutional arrangement

5. Water allocation among sector

Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2005

(Deliverable No 10.1)

6. Building baseline scenario

identify and defining basin objects

Collecting input data for supply node

Verifying time series data

Incorporating inter basin transfer

Exporting data into the main server

Building the topology features of the WRM

Comparison of calculated results of the mass balance with that observed at control stations (nodes).

Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2005

(Deliverable No 10.1)

7. Baseline evaluation and analysis:

direct and indirect cost

Cost benefit ratio

Constraints and instrument

Stakeholder view of the baseline scenario

Modification needed to baseline scenario

Structure of the Problem Analysis Report Due in July, 2006

(Deliverable No 10.1)

8. Land use changes:

Land uses by sector

Evaluation of changes from 1992-2002

Prediction of changes for the next 15 years

Recommendation on land use

9. Next step

Future scenario

Optimization strategy

Water technologies

Contribution to WP 14Evaluation post-optimal analysis

COR

Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m

Activities:X Not yet

Status: D14.1: Decision analysis report due May 2007 D14.2: Stakeholder involvement report due May 2007

Contribution to WP 15Comparative analysis: generic lessons and best practice

ELARD

Level of Efforts by UJO 3 m/m

Activities: X Not yet

Status: D15.1: Case study comparative analysis due May 2007 D15.2: Best practices report due May 2007

Contribution to WP 16Dissemination, networking and exploitation

IRMCO

Level of Efforts by UJO 2 m/m

Activities: Data on stakeholder were sent Maps and pictures were sent for poster production A paper on “Water Management in Zarqa Basin”

was presented in WATMED2 in Marrakech, Morocco, Nov., 2005.

The project has been announced under UNESCO chair web page within the University site.

The Project has been introduced to the stakeholder in the workshop on May 16, 2006.

Contribution to WP 16Dissemination, networking and exploitation

IRMCO

Status: D16.1: project website due June 2007 D16.2: Guidelines for local participation due June 2007 D16.3 Regional dissemination workshop due June 2007 D16.4 Dissemination report due June 2007

Stakeholders Workshop

AGENDA09:00 – 09:15 Registration and Interaction

09:15 – 09:30 Welcome Session, workshop agenda

09:30 – 10:20 Oral Presentations

-OPTIMA project and the Zarqa Basin case study, Shatanawi-Land use change model, al Bakri

-The participative approach, corridoio.zero

-Introduction to the Baseline Scenario, Shatanawi and Shammout

10:20 – 10:40 Coffee break

10:40 – 11:50 Working Session I (Plenary)

-Sharing and understanding the baseline scenario-Planned actions and expected changes

11:50 – 12:10 Coffee break

12:10 – 13:20 Working session II (Parallel Groups)

-Problems and issues-From problems to objectives

-Actions and instruments

13:20 – 14:30 Working Session III (Plenary)

-Introduction of the results-Sharing objectives and priorities

14:30 – 15:30 Lunch

Thank you