Llad Phillips 1
The Family and DelinquencyThe Family and Delinquency
Llad Phillips 2
The Family and DelinquencyThe Family and Delinquency
What is the role of the family in causing or What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency?preventing delinquency?
How important is the family in considering How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency?possible causes of delinquency?
Llad Phillips 3
The Importance of CausalityThe Importance of Causality
A theme in this courseA theme in this course
Crime Generation
Crime Control
OffenseRate PerCapita
ExpectedCost ofPunishment
Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?!!
(detention,deterrence)
Expenditures
Weak Link
“The Driving Force”
Reference: Lecture Six
Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and JusticeReference: Lecture Four
Llad Phillips 6
California Index Expenses and Criminal Justice System .Expenditures, Both Per Capita, 1967-68 to 1997-98 .
1997-98
1980-81
1967-68
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045
CA Index Offenses Per Capita
1992 $
Per
Capita
California Index Offenses and Criminal Justice System . Expenditures, both per capita, 1967-68:1992-93
1992-93
1980-81
1967-68
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04
Index Offenses Per Capita .
19
92
$ P
er
Cap
ita
Reference: Lecture Six
Llad Phillips 8
Family
Education System
Community
Social Institutions Shaping Youth
Llad Phillips 9
Viewpoints About the Family and DelinquencyViewpoints About the Family and Delinquency Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or
attachment explains delinquency(1969)attachment explains delinquency(1969) Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological
parents missing explains running away, parents missing explains running away, truancy, and auto theft(1983)truancy, and auto theft(1983)
Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Turner: Being raised by a mother alone Turner: Being raised by a mother alone explains delinquency(1977)explains delinquency(1977)
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Llad Phillips 10
Trends Affecting FamiliesTrends Affecting Families
Changes in Family StructureChanges in Family Structure
Marriage and Divorce Rates Per 1000 Population, US .
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
Year
Rate
Marriages
Divorces
Source: US Statistical Abstract
Llad Phillips 12
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
Marriage Rates
Llad Phillips 13
Number of Divorces and Children Affected
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
Llad Phillips 14
Age Specific Divorce Rates, men and Women
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
Llad Phillips 15
Divorce Rates by Duration of Marriage
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
US Marrige Rates Per 1000 Population, . Unmarried Women 15-44 Years Old
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
Year
Rate
Source: US Statistical Abstract
Median Age at First Marriage, US .
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
Year
Ag
e
Women
Men
Source: US Statistical Abstract
US Families Headed By Women in Percent .
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1940 1950 1960 1970 1983
Year
Perc
en
t
White
Black
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Llad Phillips 19
Post World War II PhenomenonPost World War II Phenomenon
““In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black families living in Harlem were intact, and families living in Harlem were intact, and the teenage mother raising her children the teenage mother raising her children alone was virtually unknown...”alone was virtually unknown...”
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Percentage of Births Occuring Out of Wedlock, . White Women by Age Group, US .
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year
Perc
en
t
15-19
20-24
25-29
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Percentage of Births Occurring Out of Wedlock, . Black Mothers By Age Group, US
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year
Perc
en
t
15-19
20-24
25-29
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Llad Phillips 22
Llad Phillips 23
Birth Rates for Unmarried Women By Age of Mother
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
Llad Phillips 24
Per Cent Low Birth Weight By Age of Mother
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
Llad Phillips 25
“The Rotten Kid Theorem”“The Rotten Kid Theorem”
Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Expanding Domain of Economics”Expanding Domain of Economics” Figure 1Figure 1
Llad Phillips 26
Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
Llad Phillips 27
Daughter’sIncome, YD
Father’s Income, YF
Daughter’s Selfish Preferences: UD = UD(YD)
Good
Better
Best
Llad Phillips 28
Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
Family Joint Income Opportunities WhenBoth the Child and Parent Agree
Llad Phillips 29
R
Short-sighted selfishdaughter prefers point R
Daughter’s Income
Father’s Income
Llad Phillips 30
Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
Family Income = Daughter’sIncome + Father’s Income
Father’s Income
R
J
Daughter’sIncome
Family Income Is Maximum At Point J
Llad Phillips 32
How Does the Parent Inducethe Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest?
How Does the Parent Inducethe Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest?
Did King Lear Have It Right?Did King Lear Have It Right?
Llad Phillips 33
Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
Father’s Altruistic Preferences: UF = UF(YD , YF)
Llad Phillips 34
Why Does The Parent Care For The Child?Why Does The Parent Care For The Child? Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival
of the genesof the genes
Father’s Income
R
J
Daughter’sIncome
A
If the father is sufficientlyaltruistic, then the daughter’senlightened self-interest is to prefer point A, and she can be induced to behave in a cooperative way, allowing pointJ that leads to point A
Father’s Income
R
J
Daughter’sIncome
B
If the father is insufficientlyaltruistic, then the daughterwill prefer point R to point Band, as a result, family incomeand fortunes will be lower
Llad Phillips 37
So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘RoundSo, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and In what kind of environment does love and
caring flourish?caring flourish? both biological parents are presentboth biological parents are present educated, enlightened self-interesteducated, enlightened self-interest a family with enough time and resources to care a family with enough time and resources to care
for one anotherfor one another
Llad Phillips 38
National Longitudinal Survey of YouthNational Longitudinal Survey of Youth survey of 14-23 year oldssurvey of 14-23 year olds self-report information about contact with the self-report information about contact with the
criminal justice system for -1979criminal justice system for -1979 ever stopped by the policeever stopped by the police ever charged with a crimeever charged with a crime ever convicted of a crimeever convicted of a crime
family incomefamily income family structure when youth was age 14 family structure when youth was age 14
14-23 yearsof age
Report:never stopped
Report: ever stopped28.5%
Report: ever charged17.4%
Report:never charged Report:
neverconvicted
Report:ever convicted10.1%
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)
Llad Phillips 40
NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14Family Structure Frequency, % % Ever Charged
Father-Mother 69.1 15.0
Mother-No Man 16.0 19.6
Mother-Stepfather 6.4 28.9
Father-Stepmother 1.8 12.4
Father-No Woman 1.3 22.6
Other Strucures 5.4 24.7
4,927 boys and young men, ages 14-23
Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”
Llad Phillips 41
NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14Family Structure Frequency, % %, Ever Given
BirthFather-Mother 66.5 3.5
Mother-No Man 18.8 10.6
Mother-Stepfather 6.8 7.1
Father-Stepmother 1.0 6.2
Father-No Woman 0.8 3.8
Other Structures 6.0 9.0
3119 girls and young women, ages 14-19, never married
Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”
Llad Phillips 42
So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘RoundSo, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and In what kind of environment does love and
caring flourish?caring flourish? both biological parents are presentboth biological parents are present educated, enlightened self-interesteducated, enlightened self-interest a family with enough time and resources to care a family with enough time and resources to care
for one anotherfor one another
Llad Phillips 43
The Importance of Social Institutions
The Importance of Social Institutions
Family: social control; human capital Family: social control; human capital School: social control; human capitalSchool: social control; human capital Religious organizations: moral complianceReligious organizations: moral compliance Community groups and centersCommunity groups and centers
Llad Phillips 44
Question: Why are people violent?Question: Why are people violent? Before the agricultural societies in Mesopotamia and Before the agricultural societies in Mesopotamia and
the Nile Valley, people were hunters and gatherers the Nile Valley, people were hunters and gatherers and shepherds and tended to fear strangers (And fight and shepherds and tended to fear strangers (And fight them) Paul Seabright, them) Paul Seabright, The Company of Strangers, A The Company of Strangers, A Natural History of Economic Life(2004) Natural History of Economic Life(2004) Princeton U.Princeton U.
After people settled down as farmers they needed After people settled down as farmers they needed social institutions to help them interact with strangerssocial institutions to help them interact with strangers Markets allowed people to deal productively with strangersMarkets allowed people to deal productively with strangers Legal systems and governments allowed settlement of Legal systems and governments allowed settlement of
disputesdisputes Adam Smith; Adam Smith; The Wealth of Nations(1776)The Wealth of Nations(1776)
““It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”regard to their own interest.”
Llad Phillips 45
THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION
THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION
We the People of the United States, in Order We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of AmericaUnited States of America
Llad Phillips 46
What Leads to the Loss of Social Control?
What Leads to the Loss of Social Control?
Llad Phillips 47
Social Control of CitizenrySocial Control of Citizenry
Civil law and authorityCivil law and authority First line of defense: moral compliance and good First line of defense: moral compliance and good
citizenshipcitizenship Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of
punishment)punishment) Third line of defense: detentionThird line of defense: detention
Martial law and authorityMartial law and authority Fourth line of defense: National Guard and the ArmyFourth line of defense: National Guard and the Army
Llad Phillips 48
PercentControl
MoralCompliance
Deterrence Detention
Riot
Civil LawMartialLaw
National Guard
Llad Phillips 49
Why Is the Imprisonment Rate So High in the USA?
Why Is the Imprisonment Rate So High in the USA?
0.74 %0.74 %
Llad Phillips 50
The U.S. Incarceration Rate is Higher than for Russia, and South Africa; 7 times Italy and 8 times France
Llad Phillips 51
Is It Because the US Murder Rate Is So High?
Is It Because the US Murder Rate Is So High?
Llad Phillips 52
#24 USA 0.04 per 1000
http://www.nationmaster.com/
Llad Phillips 53
Is It Because the US Crime Rate Is So High?
Is It Because the US Crime Rate Is So High?
Llad Phillips 54
Llad Phillips 55
What Are We Afraid Of?What Are We Afraid Of?
Llad Phillips 56
PercentControl
MoralCompliance
Deterrence Detention
Riot
Civil LawMartialLaw
National Guard
0.74% Prison
Llad Phillips 57
We Are In the Third Line of Defense: DetentionWe Are In the Third Line of Defense: Detention Are we close to the edge?Are we close to the edge? Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority?Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority?
Instances- 1992: LA riot: worse than the 1965 Watts Instances- 1992: LA riot: worse than the 1965 Watts riotriot
13 dead13 dead 192 injured 192 injured Governor Pete Wilson activated more than 2000 National Governor Pete Wilson activated more than 2000 National
Guardsmen, mostly military police, to secure areas in Los Guardsmen, mostly military police, to secure areas in Los AngelesAngeles
Llad Phillips 58
That’s All FolksThat’s All Folks
Llad Phillips 59
Probability of Ever Being Charged Vs. Family Income .
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
Family Income
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Father Present
Father Absent