L.Bayarbaatar, P.Gomboluudev, P. Batima , L.Natsagdorj B.Erdenetsetseg., B.Bolortsetseg, T.Ganbaatar
Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)
2-6 November 2004Manila
Past and Future Climate change and its
Impact on Mongolia
ContentContent
- Impact of past climate changeImpact of past climate change• Climate• Snow coverage• Grassland• Livestock
- Impact of future climate change Impact of future climate change • change of the climate• change of the number of day with snow cover• change of permafrost index• change of natural zone• change of pasture condition• change of livestock weight
- ConclusionsConclusions
• Temperature• Precipitation
Climatic
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
dT 0
CRecent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia
Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C
1.55 0.911.05
1.480.721.66
1.79
1.13
1.25 0.941.321.42 1.071.15
0.65 1.081.001.66 1.15 0.181.03 1.061.400.34 1.011.131.80 1.23
1.42 1.062.04 0.86 1.39 1.161.24 1.51 1.021.53 0.932.12 1.60 1.421.55 1.731.25
9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 1 54 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
0.0 to 0.5
0.5 to 1.0
1.0 to 1.5
1.5 to 2.0
2.0 to 2.5
Geographical distribution of annual mean temperature change in last 30 years
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
dR
Precipitation
4 .68 1 2 .98-1 7 .17 2 5 .62 35 .55
13 .72-1 .94 15 .12-30 .3 1 35 .37 1 2 .6133 .32
14 .54-3 .32-26 .35 6 5 .62
-58 .382 9 .46 15 .00-6 .70 -22 .231 .90-31 .13 44 .13-27 .18
3 6 .32 -50 .3766 .82-13 .0 4 -43 .14-35 .21 3 5 .9525 .00 28 .4 91 9 .32
16 .4 823 .0 8 47 .5 617 .16 -1 .02-10 .6 6-38 .0 0
17 .776 7 .65 5 .86 -78 .3 3-9 .17 18 .8820 .7 8 27 .01 -6 0 .19-79 .86-20 .06 11 .96 -50 .844 4 .88 -23 .68 -68 .4527 .94-25 .6 2
56 .3 3
9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 1 54 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
-95 .00 to -50 .0 0
-50 .00 to -30 .0 0
-30 .00 to 0 .00
0 .00 to 30 .00
30 .00 to 50 .00
50 .00 to 80 .00
Annual precipitation changes in the last 30 years, mm
We used following equitation, and to compute the number of days with snow cover, where used calendar days of stable become –100C for seasons spring and autumn
151
dab
akS 152
dab
kaS
Here: S1,S2-calendar days of stable become –100C for seasons spring and autumn, k-selected level or here –100C, a, b-monthly air average temperatures of two sides for k level, esp. a < k >b.
Number of days with snow cover, \map of climate atlas\
Computed the number of days with snow cover by monthly air average temperature
Snow coverSnow cover
Number of days with snow cover = 365 - (S2 - S1)
Actual the number of days
with snow on Meteorological
stations
Past climate studyPast climate study
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Soil
moi
stur
e ca
paci
ty, m
m
Soil moisture
• Productivity (1960)
• Phenology
Pasture
Plant phenology changes
• Phenological data of pasture 8 dominant plant for past 30-40 years data were used.
Average date of
trend
Plants natural zones No of stations
No of years emer-
gency heading flower
ing seed
maturity
senescence
emer-gency
sense-cense
Agropyron 9 16-30 5/9 6/20 7/16 8/16 9/11 -0.57 0.43 Artemisia 8 12-29 5/4 7/2 7/22 8/20 9/11 -0.55 -1.10 Carex 6 16-32 5/5 5/29 6/12 7/15 9/1 -0.49 0.45 Poa 9 15-30 5/10 6/17 7/18 8/15 9/9 -0.32 -0.32 Leymus 5 19-30 5/10 6/20 7/16 8/16 9/15 -0.55 0.17 Stipa
the forest steppe
17 15-32 5/9 7/4 7/28 8/21 9/11 -0.49 -0.12 Agropyron 5 20-30 5/10 6/24 7/18 8/18 9/12 -0.16 0.09 Artemisia 5 18-34 5/7 7/8 8/3 8/28 9/17 -0.10 -0.46 Carex 1 29 4/27 5/18 5/31 7/22 9/9 -1.12 0.70 Cleistogenes 5 18-25 5/13 7/29 8/17 9/6 9/18 -0.14 -0.34 Leymus 7 23-34 5/7 6/27 7/21 8/20 9/18 -0.13 -0.16 Stipa
the steppe
14 14-34 5/8 7/7 8/3 8/26 9/15 -0.46 -0.04 Agropyron 2 23-30 5/12 6/19 7/15 8/14 9/8 -0.54 0.11 Artemisia 1 21 5/11 7/5 8/1 8/26 9/16 0.60 -0.28 Carex 2 13-18 5/15 6/17 7/7 8/12 9/10 0.07 -1.11 Cleistogenes 1 27 5/16 6/26 7/30 8/25 9/13 0.65 -0.31 Stipa
the Altai mountains
5 18-29 5/15 6/18 7/12 8/10 8/31 0.00 -0.75 Agropyron 1 21 5/18 6/24 7/27 8/30 9/19 -2.19 -0.51 Allium 12 14-32 5/15 7/25 8/12 8/30 9/15 -0.52 -0.09 Artemisia 6 18-26 5/10 7/16 8/12 9/8 9/15 0.15 0.11 Carex 1 18 4/29 6/2 6/16 8/22 9/23 -1.15 -1.11 Cleistogenes 11 16-30 5/24 7/14 8/17 9/8 9/16 -0.01 0.14 Leymus 2 17-18 5/7 6/9 7/14 8/20 9/10 -0.13 1.59 Stipa
the desert steppe
14 19-32 5/11 6/19 7/13 8/5 9/6 0.07 -0.11 Agropyron 1 15 5/2 6/19 7/17 8/5 9/12 -0.38 1.73 Allium 1 21 4/26 7/25 8/10 8/29 9/26 1.32 0.23 Carex 1 16 5/3 6/9 7/16 8/26 9/15 0.59 0.35 Stipa
the desert
2 22-24 5/3 6/11 6/21 7/17 9/9 -0.03 0.30
Pasture plants emergency is tend to start earlier in the forest steppe and the steppe. In the Altai mountains, the desert steppe and the desert some of plants (Artemisia frigida, Stipa) have had increased trend which means these plant start to grow later. In relatively arid areas such as the Altai mountains and the Gobi desert, growing season is determined by soil moisture rather than temperature. Generally, pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert.For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems.
Pasture biomass changes
Mean of pasture biomass, 100 kg/ha
In the forest steppe mean pasture biomass is 590 kg/ha, in the steppe 300 kg/ha, in The Altai mountains and the desert 170 kg/ha and in the desert steppe 220 kg/ha. Peak biomass is observed mainly in August, sometimes in July or September depending on individual year’s weather.
Ecosystem N of
stations time series 4.J un 14.J un 24.J un 4.J ul 14.J ul 24.J ul 4.Aug 14.Aug 24.Aug peak
the forest steppe 18 16-31 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.9
the steppe 13 19-34 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0
the Altai mountains 5 17-24 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7
the desert steppe 18 17-29 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.2
the desert 2 18-21 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7
Pasture biomass changes, 100 kg/ha/1 year
Ecosystem N of
stations time
series 4.J un 14.J un 24.J un 4.J ul 14.J ul 24.J ul 4.Aug 14.Aug 24.Aug peak
the forest steppe 18 16-31 0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 -0.05 -0.07 -0.06
the steppe 13 19-34 -0.04 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.05 -0.05
the Altai mountains 5 17-24 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02
the desert steppe 18 17-29 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03
the desert 2 18-21 -0.01 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.06 -0.05 -0.07
Pasture biomass has decreased almost whole summer in all ecosystems.
Animal husbadry
• Animal weight (1980)
Animals weight changes for past 20 years
GoatGoat weight was decreased by 2 kg in 2001 compared to 1980 level.
CattleThe average cow weight was 263.4 kg during the 1980-2001. The cow weight was decreased by 13.8 kg, although it had more variability.
SheepThe sheep weight had a decreasing trend during past 22 years by 3.63 kg or 0.17 kg each year.
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
601
98
0
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
Æèí /
êã
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
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2001
Æèí
/ êã
150170190210230250270290310330350
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Æèí
/êã
Future climate change studyFuture climate change study
Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models• winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change intensity is high than winter
• It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry
Model Temperature Observed Simulation BIAS St. deviation
Variation
1.HadCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -0.44 1.13 1.32 1.75
Summer 17.02 16.22 0.79 1.46 2.14
Winter -17.55 -18.42 0.92 3.21 10.03
2. CGCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -7.06 7.63 4.78 22.88
Summer 17.02 12.16 4.75 3.39 11.55
Winter -17.55 -27.06 9.44 6.76 45.4
3. CSIRO Annual mean 0.66 -0.86 1.54 3.25 10.54
Summer 17.02 19.18 -2.16 3.33 11.06
Winter -17.55 -18.02 0.53 5.27 27.27
How accurate is the climate model?
Time slice Winter Summer Annual
Temperature, Celsius
2020 0.85 1.99 1.37
2050 2.37 3.53 2.81
2080 3.89 6.35 4.88
Precipitation, mm
2020 5.0 -5.2 9.1
2050 8.2 15.1 44.3
2080 14.2 13.6 55.4
Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model
ª âºë 2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
Çóí 2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change
ª âºë 2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
Çóí 2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change
1961-1990
2050 2080
2020
Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
Natural zone
. HADCM3 çàãâàðààð /À2/ òîîöîîëñîí 0 èçîòåðì áîëîí
–100-ààñ õ¿éòýí õîíîãèéí òîîíû ººð÷ëºëò
2080
2020 2050
Change of the number of days with snow coverChange of the number of days with snow cover
As figures, the climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year.
Future studyFuture study
Area of without stable snow cover or
area of annual air temperature more
than 00C
Fair index shown, Currently, the area of permafrost about 65.6% of Mongolian territory, but this area will reduce in 2020 by 26.1%, in 2050 by 17.1%, in 2080 by 5.7%,
Changes of permafrost Changes of permafrost Future studyFuture study
2020 2050 2080
Seasonal freezing ground 65.6 73.9 82.9 94.3
Permfrost area 34.4 26.1 17.1 5.7
Fair 1961-1990 HADCM3,A2
Seasonal freezing Ground
will be increased
Models used in the study
- Models of pasture and livestock Century 4.0 plant – soil dynamic model
– EKZNJTZ – ewe weight gain model in summer and fall
– EKUKJTZ – ewe weight loss model in winter and spring
Pasture biomass changes under Hadley scenarioPasture biomass changes under Hadley scenario
B2 Biomass changes % Natural zones 2020 2050 2080
the forest steppe -10.4 -11.9 -27.8 the steppe -0.6 0.6 -7.1 The Altai mountains 2.5 26.2 27.9 the desert steppe 18.9 43.7 52.1
Precipitation change (Hadley B2)
-5
0
5
10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2050 2080year
%
the forest steppe the steppethe Altai mountains the desert steppe
Pasture potential capacity changes, %
Total capacity capacity of the forest steppe and steppe
Climate change scenario
Emission scenario
2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 Hadley A2 0.05 0.15 0.01 -0.03 0.00 -0.29 Hadley B2 0.04 0.14 0.10 -0.05 -0.06 -0.18 Echam A2 0.28 0.22 0.12 0.10 -0.02 -0.17 Echam B2 0.32 0.18 0.08 0.11 -0.05 -0.10 Csiro A2 0.02 0.12 0.06 -0.04 -0.04 -0.26 Csiro B2 0.07 0.03 0.14 -0.07 -0.12 -0.16
The total pasture potential capacity could be increased not considerably (0.01-0.32%). In 2080 this change could not exceed 0.14 %. However, in the nortern part of the country pasture capacity would decrease 0.1-0.29 %.
normal Difficult to graze No grazing
Animal grazing condition in summer under HADCM3-A2 scenario (Effect of extreme hot weather on grazing)
20 õ¿ðòýë 20 – 25 26-ààñ äýýø
Winter grazing condition under HADCM3 –A2 scenario(Effect of extreme cold temperature on grazing)
normal Difficult to graze No grazing-20 õ¿ðòýë -20 – - 28 -28-ààñ äîîø
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
2020 2050 2080
Year
weig
ht, k
g the forest steppe
the steppe
high mountains
the gobi desert
Sheep weight changes (kg) in winter under HADCM3 scenario
Natural zones 2020 2050 2080
the forest steppe -1.78 -4.98 -15.24
the steppe -1.88 -3.09 -12.41
the high mountains 0.08 -3.70 -14.06
the Gobi desert 0.86 0.14 -9.03
Sheep weight changes (%) in winter under HADCM3 scenario
-9.00-8.00-7.00-6.00-5.00-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.00
2020 2050 2080
Year
wei
ght c
hang
e, k
g
the forest steppe
the steppe
the high mountains
the gobi desert
Sheep weight change (kg) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario
Natural zone 2020 2050 2080
Forest sreppe -10.68 -34.40 -57.75
Steppe -12.85 -31.67 -39.50
High mountains -2.92 -3.05 -9.03
Gobi dessert 2.02 3.87 -0.18
Sheep weight change (%) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario
Conclusions- past climate change Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.66C
Pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert. For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems.
Pasture plant biomass have decreased trend whole summer for past 40 years in all ecosystems.
Animal weight has decreasing trend with climate change. Especially winter –spring weight loss has increased in past 20 years.
Conclusion- future climate change
The climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year
Pasture biomass and potential capacity could decrease especially in the forest steppe and the steppe region.
Temperature increase would lead to shorten grazing hours and daily intake of animals
Animal weight would decrease because of the above combined factors