L.Bayarbaatar, P.Gomboluudev, P. Batima, L.Natsagdorj B.Erdenetsetseg., B.Bolortsetseg, T.Ganbaatar Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate.

L.Bayarbaatar, P.Gomboluudev, P. Batima , L.Natsagdorj B.Erdenetsetseg., B.Bolortsetseg, T.Ganbaatar

Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)

 2-6 November 2004Manila

Past and Future Climate change and its

Impact on Mongolia

ContentContent

- Impact of past climate changeImpact of past climate change• Climate• Snow coverage• Grassland• Livestock

- Impact of future climate change Impact of future climate change • change of the climate• change of the number of day with snow cover• change of permafrost index• change of natural zone• change of pasture condition• change of livestock weight

- ConclusionsConclusions

• Temperature• Precipitation

Climatic

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

dT 0

CRecent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia

Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C

1.55 0.911.05

1.480.721.66

1.79

1.13

1.25 0.941.321.42 1.071.15

0.65 1.081.001.66 1.15 0.181.03 1.061.400.34 1.011.131.80 1.23

1.42 1.062.04 0.86 1.39 1.161.24 1.51 1.021.53 0.932.12 1.60 1.421.55 1.731.25

9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 1 54 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

0.0 to 0.5

0.5 to 1.0

1.0 to 1.5

1.5 to 2.0

2.0 to 2.5

Geographical distribution of annual mean temperature change in last 30 years

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

dR

Precipitation

4 .68 1 2 .98-1 7 .17 2 5 .62 35 .55

13 .72-1 .94 15 .12-30 .3 1 35 .37 1 2 .6133 .32

14 .54-3 .32-26 .35 6 5 .62

-58 .382 9 .46 15 .00-6 .70 -22 .231 .90-31 .13 44 .13-27 .18

3 6 .32 -50 .3766 .82-13 .0 4 -43 .14-35 .21 3 5 .9525 .00 28 .4 91 9 .32

16 .4 823 .0 8 47 .5 617 .16 -1 .02-10 .6 6-38 .0 0

17 .776 7 .65 5 .86 -78 .3 3-9 .17 18 .8820 .7 8 27 .01 -6 0 .19-79 .86-20 .06 11 .96 -50 .844 4 .88 -23 .68 -68 .4527 .94-25 .6 2

56 .3 3

9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 1 54 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

-95 .00 to -50 .0 0

-50 .00 to -30 .0 0

-30 .00 to 0 .00

0 .00 to 30 .00

30 .00 to 50 .00

50 .00 to 80 .00

Annual precipitation changes in the last 30 years, mm

We used following equitation, and to compute the number of days with snow cover, where used calendar days of stable become –100C for seasons spring and autumn

151

dab

akS 152

dab

kaS

Here: S1,S2-calendar days of stable become –100C for seasons spring and autumn, k-selected level or here –100C, a, b-monthly air average temperatures of two sides for k level, esp. a < k >b.

Number of days with snow cover, \map of climate atlas\

Computed the number of days with snow cover by monthly air average temperature

Snow coverSnow cover

Number of days with snow cover = 365 - (S2 - S1)

Actual the number of days

with snow on Meteorological

stations

Past climate studyPast climate study

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Soil

moi

stur

e ca

paci

ty, m

m

Soil moisture

• Productivity (1960)

• Phenology

Pasture

Plant phenology changes

• Phenological data of pasture 8 dominant plant for past 30-40 years data were used.

Average date of

trend

Plants natural zones No of stations

No of years emer-

gency heading flower

ing seed

maturity

senescence

emer-gency

sense-cense

Agropyron 9 16-30 5/9 6/20 7/16 8/16 9/11 -0.57 0.43 Artemisia 8 12-29 5/4 7/2 7/22 8/20 9/11 -0.55 -1.10 Carex 6 16-32 5/5 5/29 6/12 7/15 9/1 -0.49 0.45 Poa 9 15-30 5/10 6/17 7/18 8/15 9/9 -0.32 -0.32 Leymus 5 19-30 5/10 6/20 7/16 8/16 9/15 -0.55 0.17 Stipa

the forest steppe

17 15-32 5/9 7/4 7/28 8/21 9/11 -0.49 -0.12 Agropyron 5 20-30 5/10 6/24 7/18 8/18 9/12 -0.16 0.09 Artemisia 5 18-34 5/7 7/8 8/3 8/28 9/17 -0.10 -0.46 Carex 1 29 4/27 5/18 5/31 7/22 9/9 -1.12 0.70 Cleistogenes 5 18-25 5/13 7/29 8/17 9/6 9/18 -0.14 -0.34 Leymus 7 23-34 5/7 6/27 7/21 8/20 9/18 -0.13 -0.16 Stipa

the steppe

14 14-34 5/8 7/7 8/3 8/26 9/15 -0.46 -0.04 Agropyron 2 23-30 5/12 6/19 7/15 8/14 9/8 -0.54 0.11 Artemisia 1 21 5/11 7/5 8/1 8/26 9/16 0.60 -0.28 Carex 2 13-18 5/15 6/17 7/7 8/12 9/10 0.07 -1.11 Cleistogenes 1 27 5/16 6/26 7/30 8/25 9/13 0.65 -0.31 Stipa

the Altai mountains

5 18-29 5/15 6/18 7/12 8/10 8/31 0.00 -0.75 Agropyron 1 21 5/18 6/24 7/27 8/30 9/19 -2.19 -0.51 Allium 12 14-32 5/15 7/25 8/12 8/30 9/15 -0.52 -0.09 Artemisia 6 18-26 5/10 7/16 8/12 9/8 9/15 0.15 0.11 Carex 1 18 4/29 6/2 6/16 8/22 9/23 -1.15 -1.11 Cleistogenes 11 16-30 5/24 7/14 8/17 9/8 9/16 -0.01 0.14 Leymus 2 17-18 5/7 6/9 7/14 8/20 9/10 -0.13 1.59 Stipa

the desert steppe

14 19-32 5/11 6/19 7/13 8/5 9/6 0.07 -0.11 Agropyron 1 15 5/2 6/19 7/17 8/5 9/12 -0.38 1.73 Allium 1 21 4/26 7/25 8/10 8/29 9/26 1.32 0.23 Carex 1 16 5/3 6/9 7/16 8/26 9/15 0.59 0.35 Stipa

the desert

2 22-24 5/3 6/11 6/21 7/17 9/9 -0.03 0.30

Pasture plants emergency is tend to start earlier in the forest steppe and the steppe. In the Altai mountains, the desert steppe and the desert some of plants (Artemisia frigida, Stipa) have had increased trend which means these plant start to grow later. In relatively arid areas such as the Altai mountains and the Gobi desert, growing season is determined by soil moisture rather than temperature. Generally, pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert.For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems.

Pasture biomass changes

Mean of pasture biomass, 100 kg/ha

 In the forest steppe mean pasture biomass is 590 kg/ha, in the steppe 300 kg/ha, in The Altai mountains and the desert 170 kg/ha and in the desert steppe 220 kg/ha. Peak biomass is observed mainly in August, sometimes in July or September depending on individual year’s weather.

Ecosystem N of

stations time series 4.J un 14.J un 24.J un 4.J ul 14.J ul 24.J ul 4.Aug 14.Aug 24.Aug peak

the forest steppe 18 16-31 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.9

the steppe 13 19-34 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0

the Altai mountains 5 17-24 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7

the desert steppe 18 17-29 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.2

the desert 2 18-21 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7

Pasture biomass changes, 100 kg/ha/1 year

Ecosystem N of

stations time

series 4.J un 14.J un 24.J un 4.J ul 14.J ul 24.J ul 4.Aug 14.Aug 24.Aug peak

the forest steppe 18 16-31 0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 -0.05 -0.07 -0.06

the steppe 13 19-34 -0.04 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.05 -0.05

the Altai mountains 5 17-24 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

the desert steppe 18 17-29 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03

the desert 2 18-21 -0.01 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.06 -0.05 -0.07

Pasture biomass has decreased almost whole summer in all ecosystems.

Animal husbadry

• Animal weight (1980)

Animals weight changes for past 20 years

GoatGoat weight was decreased by 2 kg in 2001 compared to 1980 level.

CattleThe average cow weight was 263.4 kg during the 1980-2001. The cow weight was decreased by 13.8 kg, although it had more variability.

SheepThe sheep weight had a decreasing trend during past 22 years by 3.63 kg or 0.17 kg each year.

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

601

98

0

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

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94

19

95

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96

19

97

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98

19

99

20

00

20

01

Æèí /

êã

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

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2000

2001

Æèí

/ êã

150170190210230250270290310330350

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Æèí

/êã

Future climate change studyFuture climate change study

Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models• winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change intensity is high than winter

• It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry

Model Temperature Observed Simulation BIAS St. deviation

Variation

1.HadCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -0.44 1.13 1.32 1.75

Summer 17.02 16.22 0.79 1.46 2.14

Winter -17.55 -18.42 0.92 3.21 10.03

2. CGCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -7.06 7.63 4.78 22.88

Summer 17.02 12.16 4.75 3.39 11.55

Winter -17.55 -27.06 9.44 6.76 45.4

3. CSIRO Annual mean 0.66 -0.86 1.54 3.25 10.54

Summer 17.02 19.18 -2.16 3.33 11.06

Winter -17.55 -18.02 0.53 5.27 27.27

How accurate is the climate model?

Time slice Winter Summer Annual

Temperature, Celsius

2020 0.85 1.99 1.37

2050 2.37 3.53 2.81

2080 3.89 6.35 4.88

  Precipitation, mm

2020 5.0 -5.2 9.1

2050 8.2 15.1 44.3

2080 14.2 13.6 55.4

Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model

ª âºë 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Çóí 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change

ª âºë 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Çóí 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change

1961-1990

2050 2080

2020

Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2

2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

Natural zone

. HADCM3 çàãâàðààð /À2/ òîîöîîëñîí 0 èçîòåðì áîëîí

–100-ààñ õ¿éòýí õîíîãèéí òîîíû ººð÷ëºëò

2080

2020 2050

Change of the number of days with snow coverChange of the number of days with snow cover

As figures, the climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year.

Future studyFuture study

Area of without stable snow cover or

area of annual air temperature more

than 00C

Fair index shown, Currently, the area of permafrost about 65.6% of Mongolian territory, but this area will reduce in 2020 by 26.1%, in 2050 by 17.1%, in 2080 by 5.7%,

Changes of permafrost Changes of permafrost Future studyFuture study

2020 2050 2080

Seasonal freezing ground 65.6 73.9 82.9 94.3

Permfrost area 34.4 26.1 17.1 5.7

Fair 1961-1990 HADCM3,A2

Seasonal freezing Ground

will be increased

Models used in the study

- Models of pasture and livestock Century 4.0 plant – soil dynamic model

– EKZNJTZ – ewe weight gain model in summer and fall

– EKUKJTZ – ewe weight loss model in winter and spring

Pasture biomass changes under Hadley scenarioPasture biomass changes under Hadley scenario

B2 Biomass changes % Natural zones 2020 2050 2080

the forest steppe -10.4 -11.9 -27.8 the steppe -0.6 0.6 -7.1 The Altai mountains 2.5 26.2 27.9 the desert steppe 18.9 43.7 52.1

Precipitation change (Hadley B2)

-5

0

5

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2050 2080year

%

the forest steppe the steppethe Altai mountains the desert steppe

Pasture potential capacity changes, %

Total capacity capacity of the forest steppe and steppe

Climate change scenario

Emission scenario

2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 Hadley A2 0.05 0.15 0.01 -0.03 0.00 -0.29 Hadley B2 0.04 0.14 0.10 -0.05 -0.06 -0.18 Echam A2 0.28 0.22 0.12 0.10 -0.02 -0.17 Echam B2 0.32 0.18 0.08 0.11 -0.05 -0.10 Csiro A2 0.02 0.12 0.06 -0.04 -0.04 -0.26 Csiro B2 0.07 0.03 0.14 -0.07 -0.12 -0.16

The total pasture potential capacity could be increased not considerably (0.01-0.32%). In 2080 this change could not exceed 0.14 %. However, in the nortern part of the country pasture capacity would decrease 0.1-0.29 %.

normal Difficult to graze No grazing

Animal grazing condition in summer under HADCM3-A2 scenario (Effect of extreme hot weather on grazing)

20 õ¿ðòýë 20 – 25 26-ààñ äýýø

Winter grazing condition under HADCM3 –A2 scenario(Effect of extreme cold temperature on grazing)

normal Difficult to graze No grazing-20 õ¿ðòýë -20 – - 28 -28-ààñ äîîø

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

2020 2050 2080

Year

weig

ht, k

g the forest steppe

the steppe

high mountains

the gobi desert

Sheep weight changes (kg) in winter under HADCM3 scenario

Natural zones 2020 2050 2080

the forest steppe -1.78 -4.98 -15.24

the steppe -1.88 -3.09 -12.41

the high mountains 0.08 -3.70 -14.06

the Gobi desert 0.86 0.14 -9.03

Sheep weight changes (%) in winter under HADCM3 scenario

-9.00-8.00-7.00-6.00-5.00-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.00

2020 2050 2080

Year

wei

ght c

hang

e, k

g

the forest steppe

the steppe

the high mountains

the gobi desert

Sheep weight change (kg) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario

Natural zone 2020 2050 2080

Forest sreppe -10.68 -34.40 -57.75

Steppe -12.85 -31.67 -39.50

High mountains -2.92 -3.05 -9.03

Gobi dessert 2.02 3.87 -0.18

Sheep weight change (%) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario

Conclusions- past climate change Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.66C

Pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert. For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems.

Pasture plant biomass have decreased trend whole summer for past 40 years in all ecosystems.

Animal weight has decreasing trend with climate change. Especially winter –spring weight loss has increased in past 20 years.

Conclusion- future climate change

The climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year

Pasture biomass and potential capacity could decrease especially in the forest steppe and the steppe region.

Temperature increase would lead to shorten grazing hours and daily intake of animals

Animal weight would decrease because of the above combined factors