The State and Future of U.S. Solar
Shayle Kann
Vice President, Research
Greentech Media
U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference
December 2013
2013: 20 States Over 20 MW
2013 Forecasted U.S. PV Installations by State and Market Segment, Top 20 States
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
Who Sells Solar?
Car Dealers Home Improvement Home Automation
Environmental Groups Electricity Retailers Solar Salespeople
Source: GTM Research
An Installation Every Four Minutes
578
279
194
125 108
78.7 51.8 35.1
18.5 12.2 9.4 5.9 4.0 -
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
Min
ute
s P
er
Insta
llatio
n
2013: One
Installation Every
U.S. PV Installation Frequency, 2001-2013
Source: GTM Research
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
a primary source of new electric capacity
U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment
>5x Growth in Three Years
Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
Varied Growth by Segment
Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
2.3x Growth
2.3x Growth
23x Growth
We’re Number Two!
New Capacity Additions, Q1-Q3 2012 and 2013. FERC figures used for all technologies other than
solar, GTM/SEIA figures used for solar
Source: FERC, GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
U.S.A.! U.S.A! U.S.A.!
Cumulative New PV Installations in 2013, U.S. vs. Germany
Source: GTM Research
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
We are the 82%
2013 U.S. PV Installations by State, Q1-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
California: No Rebate? No Problem
California Residential PV Installations by Source, IOU Territory
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
taken seriously by the electricity industry
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
The Utility Transformation Report Bandwagon
2013 Net Metering Battlegrounds
Source: GTM Research
CA
ID
AZ
TX
CO
GALA
MOVA
VT
Utility Affiliate
PurchasesVC Investments
Competitive Retailer
Channel Partnerships
Project Investment
Utility Investment in Solar
Source: GTM Research
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
taken seriously by the electricity industry
bankable
Project Finance Milestones Abound
Project Finance in Residential
SolarStock Performance: NRG Yield
Source: GTM Research, Google Finance
Setting the Precedent: SolarCity’s First Securitized Portfolio
Source: GTM Research, Google Finance
bankable
taken seriously by the electricity industry
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
So Where Do We Go From Here?
Forecasted Cumulative U.S. PV Installations, 2008-2027
Source: GTM Research
Thank You!
Shayle Kann
Vice President, Research
Greentech Media
