The State and Future of U.S. Solar Shayle Kann Vice President, Research Greentech Media U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference December 2013
The State and Future of U.S. Solar
Shayle Kann
Vice President, Research
Greentech Media
U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference
December 2013
2013: 20 States Over 20 MW
2013 Forecasted U.S. PV Installations by State and Market Segment, Top 20 States
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
Who Sells Solar?
Car Dealers Home Improvement Home Automation
Environmental Groups Electricity Retailers Solar Salespeople
Source: GTM Research
An Installation Every Four Minutes
578
279
194
125 108
78.7 51.8 35.1
18.5 12.2 9.4 5.9 4.0 -
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
Min
ute
s P
er
Insta
llatio
n
2013: One
Installation Every
U.S. PV Installation Frequency, 2001-2013
Source: GTM Research
U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment
>5x Growth in Three Years
Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
Varied Growth by Segment
Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
2.3x Growth
2.3x Growth
23x Growth
We’re Number Two!
New Capacity Additions, Q1-Q3 2012 and 2013. FERC figures used for all technologies other than
solar, GTM/SEIA figures used for solar
Source: FERC, GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
U.S.A.! U.S.A! U.S.A.!
Cumulative New PV Installations in 2013, U.S. vs. Germany
Source: GTM Research
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
We are the 82%
2013 U.S. PV Installations by State, Q1-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
California: No Rebate? No Problem
California Residential PV Installations by Source, IOU Territory
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
taken seriously by the electricity industry
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
Utility Affiliate
PurchasesVC Investments
Competitive Retailer
Channel Partnerships
Project Investment
Utility Investment in Solar
Source: GTM Research
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
taken seriously by the electricity industry
bankable
Project Finance Milestones Abound
Project Finance in Residential
SolarStock Performance: NRG Yield
Source: GTM Research, Google Finance
bankable
taken seriously by the electricity industry
Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
a primary source of new electric capacity
So Where Do We Go From Here?
Forecasted Cumulative U.S. PV Installations, 2008-2027
Source: GTM Research
Thank You!
Shayle Kann
Vice President, Research
Greentech Media