issued14August2020

Thelatestseasonalprecipita7onpredic7onsarederivedfromsixmodels,CFSv2,ECMWFandCopernicus(CMCC,DWD,Méteo-France,UKMO),providedbytheWorldClimateService(WCS).Themoremodels,thebeMertheoverallforecast.TherearemixedsignalsbetweenthemodelsfortheSahelofWestAfricaandSudanwhilethereisagreementaboutweMercondi7onsintheinteriorofEastAfrica.Below-normalrainsareexpectedinthewinterbreedingareasalongbothsidesoftheRedSea.

Summerbreedingareas(September–November)• EAfrica:weMerthannormalinNKenya,NE/EEthiopia,NWSomalia(Sep)followedbydrierthannormal• WAfricaSahelofWAfrica&Sudan:normaltodrierthannormal• Yemen:weMerthannormalininteriorandnormalonthecoasts• Indo-Pakistan:weMerthannormalWinterbreedingareas(October–February)• RedSea:drierthannormal(Oct–Nov),weMerthannormal(Dec–Feb)exceptSaudiArabiaandYemen• GulfofAden(NWSomalia):drierthannormal(Oct–Nov)followedbynormal• GulfofAden(Yemen):normaltoweMerthannormal(Oct,Dec),drierthannormal(Nov,Jan–Feb)Springbreedingareas(February)• SWAsia:slightlyweMerthannormal(SEIran,SWPakistan)• CentralRegion:normaltodrierthannormal(interiorofSaudiArabia,Yemen,Oman)• WesternRegion:normal(southofAtlasMtsinNWAfrica)

Pleaserefertothechartsonthefollowingpages.Avalueof100onthele^axisindicatesnormalrainfall;valueslessthan100indicatedrierthannormalcondi7ons;morethan100indicatesweMerthannormal.LiMlevaria7onbetweenmodelssuggestsgreaterconfidenceandreliability.Anasteriskindicatesmostreliableineachmonth.Thehistoricallybestmodelforeachregionduringtheen7reforecastisindicatedinthecap7on.

Seasonalprecipita/onpredic/onsinDesertLocustsummer/winter/springbreedingareas

(September2020–February2021)

FAODesertLocustInforma7onService(DLIS)/WorldClimateService(WCS)

Predictedrainfallanomalyfor15–21August(le^)and22–28August(right)

Summerbreeding,September–November(HornofAfrica)

Summer Breeding Region (Horn of Africa)

Summerbreeding,September–November(Indo-Pakistan)

[Historicallybest:CFSv2]

Summerbreeding,September–November(SahelofWestAfrica&Sudan)

[Historicallybest:CMCC]

Winterbreeding,October–February(RedSeacoast)

Springbreeding,February(southernIran,SWPakistan)

Springbreeding,February(ArabianPeninsula)

Springbreeding,February(NWAfrica)