issued 14 August 2020 The latest seasonal precipita7on predic7ons are derived from six models, CFSv2, ECMWF and Copernicus (CMCC, DWD, Méteo-France, UKMO), provided by the World Climate Service (WCS). The more models, the beMer the overall forecast. There are mixed signals between the models for the Sahel of West Africa and Sudan while there is agreement about weMer condi7ons in the interior of East Africa. Below-normal rains are expected in the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea. Summer breeding areas (September–November) • E Africa: weMer than normal in N Kenya, NE/E Ethiopia, NW Somalia (Sep) followed by drier than normal • W Africa Sahel of W Africa & Sudan: normal to drier than normal • Yemen: weMer than normal in interior and normal on the coasts • Indo-Pakistan: weMer than normal Winter breeding areas (October–February) • Red Sea: drier than normal (Oct–Nov), weMer than normal (Dec–Feb) except Saudi Arabia and Yemen • Gulf of Aden (NW Somalia): drier than normal (Oct–Nov) followed by normal • Gulf of Aden (Yemen): normal to weMer than normal (Oct, Dec), drier than normal (Nov, Jan–Feb) Spring breeding areas (February) • SW Asia: slightly weMer than normal (SE Iran, SW Pakistan) • Central Region: normal to drier than normal (interior of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman) • Western Region: normal (south of Atlas Mts in NW Africa) Please refer to the charts on the following pages. A value of 100 on the le^ axis indicates normal rainfall; values less than 100 indicate drier than normal condi7ons; more than 100 indicates weMer than normal. LiMle varia7on between models suggests greater confidence and reliability. An asterisk indicates most reliable in each month. The historically best model for each region during the en7re forecast is indicated in the cap7on. Seasonal precipita/on predic/ons in Desert Locust summer/winter/spring breeding areas (September 2020 – February 2021) FAO Desert Locust Informa7on Service (DLIS) / World Climate Service (WCS)
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issued14August2020
Thelatestseasonalprecipita7onpredic7onsarederivedfromsixmodels,CFSv2,ECMWFandCopernicus(CMCC,DWD,Méteo-France,UKMO),providedbytheWorldClimateService(WCS).Themoremodels,thebeMertheoverallforecast.TherearemixedsignalsbetweenthemodelsfortheSahelofWestAfricaandSudanwhilethereisagreementaboutweMercondi7onsintheinteriorofEastAfrica.Below-normalrainsareexpectedinthewinterbreedingareasalongbothsidesoftheRedSea.
Summerbreedingareas(September–November)• EAfrica:weMerthannormalinNKenya,NE/EEthiopia,NWSomalia(Sep)followedbydrierthannormal• WAfricaSahelofWAfrica&Sudan:normaltodrierthannormal• Yemen:weMerthannormalininteriorandnormalonthecoasts• Indo-Pakistan:weMerthannormalWinterbreedingareas(October–February)• RedSea:drierthannormal(Oct–Nov),weMerthannormal(Dec–Feb)exceptSaudiArabiaandYemen• GulfofAden(NWSomalia):drierthannormal(Oct–Nov)followedbynormal• GulfofAden(Yemen):normaltoweMerthannormal(Oct,Dec),drierthannormal(Nov,Jan–Feb)Springbreedingareas(February)• SWAsia:slightlyweMerthannormal(SEIran,SWPakistan)• CentralRegion:normaltodrierthannormal(interiorofSaudiArabia,Yemen,Oman)• WesternRegion:normal(southofAtlasMtsinNWAfrica)
Pleaserefertothechartsonthefollowingpages.Avalueof100onthele^axisindicatesnormalrainfall;valueslessthan100indicatedrierthannormalcondi7ons;morethan100indicatesweMerthannormal.LiMlevaria7onbetweenmodelssuggestsgreaterconfidenceandreliability.Anasteriskindicatesmostreliableineachmonth.Thehistoricallybestmodelforeachregionduringtheen7reforecastisindicatedinthecap7on.
Seasonalprecipita/onpredic/onsinDesertLocustsummer/winter/springbreedingareas
(September2020–February2021)
FAODesertLocustInforma7onService(DLIS)/WorldClimateService(WCS)
Predictedrainfallanomalyfor15–21August(le^)and22–28August(right)
Summerbreeding,September–November(HornofAfrica)
Summer Breeding Region (Horn of Africa)
Summerbreeding,September–November(Indo-Pakistan)
[Historicallybest:CFSv2]
Summerbreeding,September–November(SahelofWestAfrica&Sudan)
[Historicallybest:CMCC]
Winterbreeding,October–February(RedSeacoast)
Springbreeding,February(southernIran,SWPakistan)
Springbreeding,February(ArabianPeninsula)
Springbreeding,February(NWAfrica)
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