Global Forces Shaping Urban Mobility
Club of Amsterdam – Future of Mobility - January 30th 2014
Rohit Talwar - CEO – Fast Future Research
www.fastfuture.com [email protected] Twitter @fastfuture
Contents
• Presentation p. 3
• About Fast Future p. 34
• Image Sources p. 43
• Background Notes p. 48
ITS Vision – Smart, Clean, Lean, Green
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• Hyper-connectivity
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• Location technologies
• NFC / Sensors
• Big data management
• Real-time simulation and
optimization
• Artificial intelligence
• Model predictive control
• User-generated content
‘Infostructure’ for Infrastructure
…and totally Connected via
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Madeleine Albright
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Artificial Intelligence is Going
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Conclusions
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horizon?
• Which forces, factors and
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Image Sources p.1
Page:
1. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-i2lsRx2NtUI/UeL7jdKNBuI/AAAAAAAAAPs/GhbgGozH1NU/s1600/CiudadFuturo.jpg
3. http://cdn.theatlanticcities.com/img/upload/2013/05/06/shutterstock_132797276/largest.jpg
4. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/wreckless13/Zeitgeist/TVP2010A/aircraft.jpg
5. http://www.etsi.org/images/files/membership/ETSI_ITS_09_2012.jpg
6. http://www.yourformula.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/shutterstock_97807763.jpg
7. Left, right:
http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/2009/1101091207_400.jpg
http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/bitcoin.png%3Fw%3D640
8. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Map_of_emerging_markets.JPG
9. Clockwise:
http://inclusionparadox.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Multi-generational_Latino.jpg
http://batonrouge.myhomecareblog.com/files/2011/07/active_seniors4.jpg
http://discoverwebsbest.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/khan-academy.jpg
10. http://www.wallpaperex.com/wallpapers/green_environmental_issues_mac_wallpapers_hd_634101_jpeg-wide.jpg
Image Sources p.2
11. Left, right:
http://3008docklands.com.au/article/neighbourhood/1490
http://www.answers.com/topic/cloud-computing
12. http://inhabitat.com/rotterdams-wooden-luchtsingel-footbridge-is-a-fantastic-piece-of-crowdfunding-architecture/
13. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083883/Ark-Hotel-construction-Chinese-built-30-storey-hotel-scratch-15-days.html
14. Left, right:
http://quietfurybooks.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/original-cell-phone.jpg
http://www.universalexports.net/Movies/Graphics/18-gadgets/cellphone2.jpg
15. Clockwise:
http://cdn2.ubergizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Google_Glass_features_in_flux.jpeg
http://naturescrusaders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/brain-computer-alsno-lead-art1.jpg
http://dustinkirk.com/blogpicsBig/Emotiv_Headset.jpg
17. http://www.mondolithic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/You-Are-Only-Coming-Through-In-Waves.jpg
18. http://smartdesignworldwide.com/thinking/wp-content/uploads/internetofthings_480x324_final.jpg
19. http://overthemoonscifi.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/brain-mind.jpeg
Image Sources p.3
20. http://gizmaestro.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Foxconns-Future-Robots.jpg
21. Clockwise:
http://www.midwich.com/common/userfiles/midwich/cube-cubeX.png
http://www.printedelectronicsworld.com/images/v5/articles/820x615/main3149.jpg
http://www.rumormillnews.com/pix5/nbic8.jpg
http://crnano.org/srg-iii-pov-animation2.gif
22. Top, bottom:
http://www.newsyaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/digital-brain.jpg
http://www.pakalertpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Transhuman-Symbolism-in-Prometheus.png
23. Clockwise:
http://www.urdesign.it/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/2-armadillo-t-kaist-unveils-foldable-micro-electric-car.jpg
http://www.urdesign.it/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/1-armadillo-t-kaist-unveils-foldable-micro-electric-car.jpg
http://carinpicture.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Audi-Urban-Concept-Spyder-2011-Photo-09-800x600.jpg
http://ucnauri.com/category/%E1%83%A3%E1%83%AA%E1%83%9C%E1%83%90%E1%83%A3%E1%83%A0%E1%83%98/page/11
Image Sources p.4
24. ftp://ftp.software.ibm.com/software/plm/de/challenges_automotive.pdf
25. http://i.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/carInternet.png
26. http://www.businessmodelsinc.com/new-business-models-in-the-car-industry/
27. http://www.instablogsimages.com/1/2011/10/03/bmw_autonomous_car_dtcci.jpg
28. http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/05/high-speed-tube-01.jpg
29. http://assets.inhabitat.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2013/09/Land-Airbus-TBS-China-1.jpg
30. http://www.gizmag.com/future-transport/22959/
31. http://www.gizmag.com/future-transport/22959/
32. http://www.gizmag.com/future-transport/22959/
33. Top, bottom:
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/wwfuture/624_351/images/live/p0/0x/b6/p00xb6yp.jpg
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/11/06/milton-keynes-driverless-pods_n_4223397.html
Urbanisation Trends
• The UN forecasts that between 2011 and 2050, the world population is
expected to increase by 2.3 billion, passing from 7.0 billion to 9.3 billion.
• The population living in urban areas is projected to grow by 2.6 billion,
increasing from 3.6 billion in 2011 to 6.3 billion 2050.
• The urban areas of the world are expected to absorb all the population
growth expected over the next four decades.
• As a result, the world rural population is projected to start decreasing in
about a decade .
Source: UN, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
Urbanisation Trends
• Most of the population growth expected in urban areas will be concentrated
in the cities and towns of the less developed regions.
• Asia is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.4 billion, Africa by
0.9 billion, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 0.2 billion.
• Population growth is therefore becoming largely an urban phenomenon
concentrated in the developing world.
• 78 per cent of the inhabitants of the more developed regions lived in urban
areas in 2011, whereas just 47 per cent of those in the less developed
regions did so.
Source: UN, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/Maps/maps_urban_2011.htm
Percentage of urban population and agglomerations by size class, 2011
Percentage of urban population and agglomerations by size class, 2025
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/Maps/maps_urban_2011.htm
Urbanisation Trends
• Urbanization is expected to continue rising in both the more developed and
the less developed regions.
• By 2050, urban dwellers will likely account for 86 per cent of the population
in the more developed regions and for 64 per cent of that in the less
developed regions.
• Overall, the world population is expected to be 67 per cent urban in 2050.
• Today’s 3.6 billion urban dwellers are distributed unevenly among urban
settlements of different size.
Source: UN, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
Urbanisation Trends
• In 2011, 23 urban agglomerations qualified as megacities because they had
at least 10 million inhabitants.
• Despite their visibility and dynamism, megacities account for a small but
increasing proportion of the world urban population: 9.9 per cent in 2011
and 13.6 per cent in 2025.
• At the same time, over half of the urban population lives and will continue to
live in small urban centres with fewer than half a million inhabitants.
Source: UN, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
Growth rates of urban agglomerations – 1970-2011
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/Maps/maps_1970_2011.htm
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011):
Growth rates of urban agglomerations – 2011- 2025
http://esa.un.org/unup/Maps/maps_2011_2025.htm
Growth Rates of Urban
Agglomeration
• The annual growth rates of urban agglomerations in the past (1970-2011
period) were higher than the growth rates that are projected for the future
(2011 to 2025 period).
• The growth of urban agglomerations will slow down, because many of them
have already reached a population of 1 million or more or have become
mega-cities with 10 or more million inhabitants.
Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanisation Prospects (2011): http://esa.un.org/unup/Maps/maps_2011_2025.htm
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• The future of mobility:
• A future based on 100% clean mobility is considered to be further out than
2030, but some of its main ingredients are already coming together and will
become increasingly evident in the years to come. Several socio-economic
trends, which include demographic and life-style changes, increasing
urbanization, shifting balance of the global economy and exponential growth
of connectivity between people and devices, will have an overwhelming
impact on how transport is used, its quality of delivery to the customer; and
its efficiency, and will result in the gradual emergence of new vehicle
concepts and new mobility patterns.
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• Intelligent Transport Systems and rapidly evolving ICT technologies are
expected to play a key role in transforming transportation and delivering
safe, efficient, sustainable and seamless transport options for freight and
people across Europe.
• According to recent estimations, despite two decades of increasing
connectivity over high-tech networks, only 1 percent of what could be
connected in the world actually is, but in the coming years this number is
expected to go up dramatically.
• High-speed communication networks, crowdsourcing, cloud storage, social
networks, "internet of things/vehicles", advanced data analytics,
multiplication of mobile applications
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• and massive amounts of data made available by proliferation of sensors are
the connectivity components will provide many new opportunities for personal
mobility and for transport of goods.
• The establishment of an integrated transport "info-structure", relying notably
on vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I)
communications, but also on the availability of open and quality transport
data, can provide substantial improvements for the performance of transport
networks and raise its efficiency.
• Automated and progressively autonomous applications will continue to evolve
in road transport both at tactical and strategic levels, offering the potential to
significantly improve not only traffic flows but also the safety level.
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• On the way to more autonomous driving functions and vehicle systems, fault
tolerance and reliability of safety critical sensors, actuators, controllers, and
communication devices will be still areas of technological research.
• At a strategic level, navigation systems will evolve towards incorporation of
true predictive traffic information and optimal individual routing. Technologies
improving the Human Machine Interface (HMI) aspects will play a crucial role.
• Technological trends:
• Major scientific and technological trends that will impact the transport field can
be found in the ICT domain and constitute key enablers for the roll-out of
“intelligent” transport applications. Some of these include:
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• Wireless networks: especially cellular networks and mobile
communications will be in a central role in the service provision to mobile
devices and to support V2I communication.
• Mobile devices: smartphones, tablets and other mobile devices provide the
most convenient way to interact with many of the traffic related services,
especially in a multi-modal traffic context and will continue to proliferate.
They will also provide the basis for a wealth of customised innovative
mobility solutions for various end-users (such as car/ride-sharing, parking
space location etc).
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• Location technologies based on highly accurate, dynamically updated
maps are central enablers to contextualize services and collected data and
will be key for advanced tracking of vehicles, passengers and freights.
• Near Field Communications (NFC) use will grow in mobile payment and
expand to other areas.
• Sensors will be everywhere to observe the environment, provide data and
control systems. The envisioned Internet of Things and Machine to Machine
related technologies will emerge to manage the increasing complexity of
sensor networks.
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• Massive data management, data fusion and data mining will be in the
heart of many traffic services; in addition, real-time requirements and
localisation computing puts pressure on computing power.
• Real-time simulation and optimization, artificial intelligence, model
predictive control alongside with management of uncertainty in transport
system simulation and modelling will lie at the heart of dynamic traffic
management and will require ever increased levels of robustness and fault
tolerance.
• User-generated content will play a more and more important role in
providing dynamic information.
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• Cloud computing in its various forms provides solutions for the computing
and data intensive tasks.
• Innovative, contextual and safe user interaction is one of the most important
features of services in traffic context and new solutions utilizing, e.g.
multimodal and ergonomic user interfaces will be developed.
• Challenges and barriers for the successful deployment of intelligent
transport:
• Innovation amongst information services and network providers has
generally outpaced innovation in the regulatory environment, in
management structures and within transport service providers.
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• All this requires strong political leadership and buy-in from transport
operators. New rules and management structures must be flexible enough to
evolve rapidly. At the same time location-based and traffic related services
have to provide robust built-in data privacy and security solutions and issues
related to liability must be solved.
• Additionally, integration of currently separated services will be one of the key
issues to be solved in the future. All these requirements shall be addressed at
an EU level with an integrated approach towards R&I activities, by tackling
simultaneously basic and applied research, proof of concept and
demonstration activities towards full scale deployment. Improved access to
risk finance, especially for SMEs, will be of key importance.
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Intelligent Transport in Europe
• The European, national and regional regulative framework should take all
these elements into account in view of developing and enacting truly
comprehensive and cohesive strategy in regards of roll-out of smart mobility
solutions by 2030.
• the Commission has initiated a process to develop a Strategic Transport
Technology Plan with its Communication Research and Innovation for
Europe's Future Mobility.
• It should form the basis for identifying strategic priorities for EU funding
schemes for research and innovation activities influencing transport system
development and deployment.
Source: Futurium, Smart Mobility-Intelligent Transport: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/smart-mobility-intelligent-transport
Transport 2050
• The European Commission has adopted a comprehensive strategy for a
competitive transport system that will increase mobility, remove major barriers in
key areas and fuel growth and employment. At the same time, the proposals will
dramatically reduce Europe's dependence on imported oil and cut carbon
emissions in transport by 60% by 2050.
• By 2050, key goals will include:
• No more conventionally-fuelled cars in cities.
• 40% use of sustainable low carbon fuels in aviation; at least 40% cut in shipping
emissions.
• A 50% shift of medium distance intercity passenger and freight journeys from
road to rail and waterborne transport.
• All of which will contribute to a 60% cut in transport emissions by the middle of
the century.
Source: Futurium, Transport 2050: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/transport-2050-commission-outlines-ambitious-plan-increase-mobility-and-reduce-emissions
Transport 2050
• The Transport 2050 roadmap to a Single European Transport Area sets out
to remove major barriers and bottlenecks in many key areas across the
fields of transport infrastructure and investment, innovation and the internal
market.
• The aim is to create a Single European Transport Area with more
competition and a fully integrated transport network which links the different
modes and allows for a profound shift in transport patterns for passengers
and freight. To this purpose, the roadmap puts forward 40 concrete
initiatives for the next decade.
Source: Futurium, Transport 2050: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/transport-2050-commission-outlines-ambitious-plan-increase-mobility-and-reduce-emissions
Transport 2050
• The Transport 2050 roadmap sets different goals for different types of journey -
within cities, between cities, and long distance.
• Urban transport:
• A big shift to cleaner cars and cleaner fuels is required. 50% shift away from
conventionally fuelled cars by 2030, phasing them out in cities by 2050.
• Halve the use of ‘conventionally fuelled’ cars in urban transport by 2030; phase
them out in cities by 2050; achieve essentially CO2-free movement of goods in
major urban centres by 2030.
• By 2050, move close to zero fatalities in road transport. In line with this goal, the
EU aims at halving road casualties by 2020. Make sure that the EU is a world
leader in safety and security of transport in aviation, rail and maritime.
Source: Futurium, Transport 2050: http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/transport-2050-commission-outlines-ambitious-plan-increase-mobility-and-reduce-emissions
Challenges of Urban Mobility
• Hyper-mobility – the notion that more travel at faster speeds covering longer
distances generates economic prosperity – is a distinguishing feature of
urban areas.
• By 2005 approximately 7.5 billion trips were made each day in cities
worldwide. In 2050, there may be three to four times as many passenger-
kilometres travelled as in 2000.
• Mobility flows have become a key dynamic of urbanization, with the
associated infrastructure constituting the backbone of urban form.
• Despite the increasing level of urban mobility worldwide, access to places,
activities and services has become increasingly difficult and less convenient
in terms of time, cost and comfort.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Challenges of Urban Mobility
• Current urbanization patterns are causing unprecedented challenges to
urban mobility systems, particularly in developing countries.
• These areas accounted for less than 40 per cent of the global population
growth in the early 1970s, this share has now increased to 86 per cent, and
is projected to increase to more than 100 per cent within the next 15 years.
• The world’s poorest regions that will experience the greatest urban
population increase. These are the regions that will face the greatest
challenges in terms of coping with increasing demands for improved
transport infrastructure.
• Projections indicate that Africa will account for less than 5 per cent of the
global investments in transport infrastructure during the next few decades.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Challenges of Urban Mobility
• Influences of decentralized urban growth on mobility and travel
worldwide:
• Dispersal of growth from the urban centre, as a form of decentralization,
when poorly planned is at the hearth of unfolding patterns of urban
development that are environmentally, socially and economically
unsustainable.
• With dispersal come: lower densities, separation of land uses and urban
activities, urban fragmentation, segregation by income and social class,
consumption of precious resources such as farmland and open space and
more car-dependent systems.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Challenges of Urban Mobility
• Urban dispersal has an unmistakable and profound influence on travel.
Spread-out growth not only lengthens journeys by separating trip origins
and destinations, but also increases the use of private motorized vehicles.
• In developed countries, suburban living has contributed to rising
motorization rates and the environmental problems related to car
dependency.
• When urban dispersal is driven almost exclusively by market forces and is
largely unplanned, car dependency, energy consumption, environmental
degradation and social problems in urban areas are further exacerbated.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Challenges of Urban Mobility
• Overregulation of urban development (e.g. zoning codes that require
significant supplies of off-street parking) can also induce car-dependent
sprawl by suppressing market preferences.
• Trends both in developed and various developing countries suggest
that many young adults want to live incompact, walkable
neighbourhoods.
• Urban sprawl is increasingly prevalent in developing countries. From 1970
to 2000, the physical expansion of all urban areas in Mexico was nearly four
times more than their urban population growth.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Mobility and Urban Form
• In Cairo (Egypt), Sana’a (Yemen), Panama City (Panama) and Caracas
(Venezuela), sprawl is blamed for consuming scarce agricultural lands and
dramatically increasing municipal costs for infrastructure and service
delivery.
• Global urban density patterns and trends
• Asian and African cities are, on average, around 35 per cent denser than
cities in Latin America, 2.5 times denser than European cities, and nearly 10
times denser than cities in North America and Oceania.
• 39 of the world’s 100densest urban areas were situated in Asia in 2010.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Mobility and Urban Form
• Cities of developing countries
have been sprawling more rapidly
than those in developed countries.
• From 1990 to 2000, average
urban densities fell from 3545 to
2835 people per square kilometre
in developed countries compared
to a drop from 9860 to 8050
people per square kilometre in
developing ones.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Mobility and Urban Form
• Planning the accessible city:
• Coordinating and integrating urban transport and land development is
imperative to creating sustainable urban futures. Successfully linking the
two is a signature feature of ‘compact cities’ or ‘smart growth.
• Successful integration means making the connections between transport
and urban development work in both directions.
• The coordinated planning of urban mobility and land development starts
with a collective vision of the future city, shared by city government and
major stakeholders of civil society.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Mobility and Urban Form
• Well-planned cities, such as Singapore, Stockholm (Sweden) and Curitiba
(Brazil), crafted cogent visions of the future to shape transportation
investments and achieve the best outcomes, whether measured in
economic prosperity, energy resourcefulness, cleanliness of the natural
environment or quality of life.
• The city of Copenhagen (Denmark) and its celebrated ‘Finger Plan’ is a
text-book example of a long-term planning vision, which shaped rail
investments and urban growth.
• A five-finger hand became the metaphor for defining where growth would
and would not occur.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
Mobility and Urban Form
• Each finger was oriented to a traditional Danish market town within the orbit
of metropolitan Copenhagen. The construction of rail-based public transport
was purposed to steer growth along the desired growth axes, in advance of
travel demand.
• Also, greenbelt wedges set aside as agricultural preserves, open space and
natural habitats were designated and major infrastructure was directed
away from the districts.
Source: UN Habitat, Planning and Design on Sustainable Urban Mobility (2013): http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=555&typeid=19&cid=12336b
‘Finger Plan’- Copenhagen
http://radiantcopenhagen.net/uploads/RadiantCopenhagen/linear.jpg http://wikitravel.org/upload/en/thumb/a/af/S-train_diagram_(dec_2011).svg/420px-S-train_diagram_(dec_2011).svg.png
Regenerative Urbanisation
• The World Future Council (WFC) believes that a new model of urbanisation,
powered by renewable energy and defined by a regenerative, mutually
beneficial relationship between cities, rural areas and ecosystems, is
urgently needed.
• The Council advocates for going beyond sustainable cities to regenerative
cities.
• A long term target for cities should be ‘regenerating’ the same amount of
resources as they absorb - both in terms of cities’ ecological footprint and
the ecological burden of all materials used.
• In the following five cities, some aspects of regenerative urbanisation are
already a reality.
Source: World Future Council, 28/06/2012: http://power-to-the-people.net/2012/06/5-cases-of-regenerative-urbanisation/
Multimodal System – The Future
of Transport
• Eco-Business (2013) reports that time and traffic conditions in Singapore
are becoming rather unpredictable. There is growing on-road congestion
and a dilemma around balancing the increasing driving aspirations of
Singaporeans and the limited space available in the country. The rise of
commuters is also leading to overcrowding and delays – of trains and
buses.
• The government is placing emphasis on providing solutions and devising
policies to address both private and public transport concerns but another
issue has to be addressed as well: the commuter mind-set.
Source: Eco-Business, 22/04/2013:http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/singapores-transport-future-could-be-multimodal-system/
Multimodal System – The Future
of Transport
• To meet the demand for greater transportation capacities and address
mobility issues, new and attractive concepts are needed to simplify
intermodal travel and make it easier for travellers to optimise the usage of
various transport modes to reach their destination safe and conveniently.
• Challenges in Singapore:
• In the public’s best interest, the government is increasing the cost of vehicle
ownership. Limiting cars on the road and improving traffic flow, however,
have not been the end results. Instead, drivers tend to drive more frequently
to get the most out of their hefty investment.
• Singapore had to think of a better solution.
Source: Eco-Business, 22/04/2013:http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/singapores-transport-future-could-be-multimodal-system/
Multimodal System – The Future
of Transport
• In contrast, Singapore has the advantage of a widespread MRT or rail
network. This pushes the MRT as the primary means of transportation for
public commuters.
• Individuals who cannot afford a car but still want the convenience of
individual transport opt for taxis, but taxi bookings are often difficult during
peak periods.
• In order for Singapore to maintain an efficient transport network with
sustainable levels of road traffic, the country has to think of ways to
incorporate the benefits of both public and private transport.
Source: Eco-Business, 22/04/2013:http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/singapores-transport-future-could-be-multimodal-system/
Multimodal System – The Future
of Transport
• Siemens has developed an Integrated Mobility Platform (IMP) that takes
into account all the modes of transport and suggests the most feasible and
economic option for commuters.
• Operators can easily combine complementary mobility services with their
own portfolio. With this pool, the single platform facilitates the planning,
booking and billing of multimodal travel.
• Travellers are then presented with the modes of transportation and best
available fares, provided by the real-time information and mobile payment
systems of the platform. Options also enable the traveller to switch to
alternative modes of travel in the event of delays.
Source: Eco-Business, 22/04/2013:http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/singapores-transport-future-could-be-multimodal-system/
Multimodal System – The Future
of Transport • Germany is already taking a step forward in the use of multimodal transport.
As part of the Berlin-Brandenburg Electromobility Showcase, it was
announced that a central IT platform is being developed for the integration
of the various mobility services across different operators and thus enabling
the offering of seamless end-to-end connections for commuters.
• Part of the convenience of a multimodal transportation scheme is how
customers only need to pay a flat rate based on usage. The IMP has a
central billing process for all the mobility services used.
• Eco-Business suggests that the availability of multimodal travel can be a
catalyst for shifting mobility behaviour towards a stronger acceptance of
public transport.
Source: Eco-Business, 22/04/2013:http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/singapores-transport-future-could-be-multimodal-system/
Renewable Urban Transport –
Calgary • The WFC argues that land use planning, favouring compact urban
settlements will be critical to low-carbon urban development.
• In these settlements daily needs for products and services could be
supplied by non-motorised forms of mobility.
• However, in the short and medium term, cities have little choice but to
pursue alternative mobility options including public transit systems utilizing
regionally supplied renewable energy.
• Calgary’s light rail transit (LRT) system, the CTrain, runs on electricity
generated entirely by twelve wind turbines in the province.
Source: World Future Council, 28/06/2012: http://power-to-the-people.net/2012/06/5-cases-of-regenerative-urbanisation/
Renewable Urban Transport –
Calgary • It carries the highest volume of any LRT in North America, with over 280
000 passengers every weekday.
• It comprises 44 kilometres of double track, 155 light rail vehicles, 37
stations, and over 13 000 park-and-ride stalls.
• It is currently the only 100% renewable energy-powered light rail system in
North America.
• Cities that base their transport systems on renewable energy are likely to be
more environmentally, socially and economically resilient than cities with
transport based on fossil fuels.
Source: World Future Council, 28/06/2012: http://power-to-the-people.net/2012/06/5-cases-of-regenerative-urbanisation/
Scenarios
• The High-tech scenario - describes a world in which high-tech products
simplify many areas of daily life. Devices are controlled by voice, eye,
gesture and other sensors. People live in a highly interconnected world and
are a part of networking ecosystems.
• There is strong competition between content and infrastructure providers.
People expect and receive 24/7 service. It is easy to swap applications and
switch providers. For the automotive sector, this scenario foresees a wide
array of car features allowing drivers to stay connected to their networks
while driving, use the Internet (cloud-based services) and personalize the
MMI.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Scenarios
• Complex E/E systems in active and passive safety, driving assistance and
auto diagnostics are commonplace. In marketing, technologies such as
CRM play a major role in helping OEMs to go beyond the product.
• The key success factors to surviving the High-tech scenario are
powerful R&D processes. This enables quick innovation and easy
collaboration with changing partners from the automotive and non-
automotive sectors. Module-based approaches allow features to be
upgraded fast. Strong configuration management is a prerequisite. Plants
must be highly flexible and allow frequent updates and personalization
• of products.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Scenarios
• The Budget scenario – describes a world in which the purchasing power
of customers is strongly reduced due to taxes and inflation combined with
low income growth.
• Globalization creates scarcity of employment and raw material costs rise.
Cars are less affordable and the money spent on cars is in competition with
other spending. Leasing and finance schemes are the norm and pay-per-
use models establish themselves for many products. New low-cost brands
emerge.
• The main features for cars in the Budget scenario are a high degree of
simple, no-frills technology and limited standard equipment levels, enabling
a low-cost position.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Scenarios
• New low-cost brands emerge and players from outside the automotive
industry enter the market selling affordable cars under their own label, e.g.
Walmart.
• The key success factors to surviving the Budget scenario are reducing
the costs of development and production to an absolute minimum. Standard
platforms will be the norm for producing global products with limited
equipment. Multi-badging allows OEMs to address local markets with
different brands and players while sharing the same product base.
Engineering and production will take place in low-cost centres with a high
level of local sourcing. Cost is the main driver and development and
production of many modules and even complete vehicles is outsourced.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Scenarios
• The Sustainability scenario describes a world in which consumer
behaviour is strongly influenced by regulation, legislation and tax, but at the
same time by rating recommendations. Transportation is restricted.
• Sustainability is partially imposed by law, partially the result of a changing
attitude to the environment on the part of consumers. People are highly
educated and use the transparency offered by the media to buy long-term
durability and high quality. The marketplace for second-hand products
grows.
• For the automotive sector, this means that vehicles must comply with all
current and future legislation.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Scenarios
• Brands can gain a competitive edge by offering the most sustainable
product and a high share of electrified cars. OEMs become new mobility
solution services working together with other providers.
• The key success factors to surviving the Sustainability scenario are
R&D activities aimed at creating innovation through green tech. Successful
products will be zero or low-emission vehicles and mobility solutions,
allowing intelligent traffic management.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• The Foresight Project on Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) examines
how, over the next 50 years, the UK can apply science and technology to
the design and implementation of intelligent infrastructure for robust,
sustainable and safe transport, and its alternatives.
• The IIS report describes four scenarios and ‘systems maps’ that were
developed to investigate how science and technology might be applied to
infrastructure over the next 50 years.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• Scenario 1 – Perpetual Motion
• Perpetual Motion describes a society driven by constant information,
consumption and competition. In this world, instant communication and
continuing globalisation have fuelled growth: demand for travel remains
strong.
• New, cleaner, fuel technologies are increasingly popular. Road use is
causing less environmental damage, although the volume and speed of
traffic remains high. Aviation relies on carbon fuels and remains expensive.
It is increasingly replaced by ‘telepresencing’ technology(for business) and
rapid train systems (for travel).
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• Energy supply is a precondition for the ‘always on’ world of Perpetual
motion.
• Technology in all its aspects is a large but not exclusive part of the picture,
and the human capacity to cope with such a world resists full-scale
adoption. In this scenario, technology achieves levels of interoperability,
resilience and ubiquity that renders it effective and trustworthy.
• Problems still exist, arguably because technology is applied without regard
to the design of the physical environment or its waste footprint. People are
also too busy to think about efficient use.
• Crime adapts to a more connected world, as does law enforcement.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• Scenario 2 – Urban Colonies
• In this scenario, investment in technology primarily focuses on minimising
environmental impacts. Good environmental practice is at the heart of the
UK’s economic and social policies; sustainable buildings, distributed power
generation and new urban planning policies have created compact,
sustainable cities.
• Transport is permitted only if green and clean. Car use is still energy-
expensive and is restricted. Public transport – electric and low-energy – is
efficient and widely used.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios • Competitive cities have the IT infrastructure needed to link high-value
knowledge businesses, but there is poor integration of IT supporting
transport systems. Rural areas have become more isolated, effectively
acting as food and bio-fuel sources for cities.
• Urban Colonies identifies that improved urban design, organising ourselves
to minimise the need for travel, has a contribution to make. The scenario is
a response to environmental concerns but is also driven by suspicion about
intelligent technologies, which requires to find alternatives to travel.
• The overall economic focus is more city-based than global, with medium
economic growth. Societal benefits accrue from a society integrated more at
the local level.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• Scenario 3 – Tribal Trading
• Tribal Trading describes a world that has been through a sharp and savage
• energy shock. The world has stabilised, but only after a global recession has left
millions unemployed. The global economic system is severely damaged and
infrastructure is falling into disrepair.
• For most people the world has shrunk to their own community. Cities have
declined and local food production and services have increased. Canals and
sea-going vessels carry freight: the rail network is worthwhile only for high-value
long-distance cargoes and trips.
• There are still some cars, but local transport is typically by bike and by horse.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• The power of the state has been eroded, although it does what it can. There
are many local conflicts over resources, lawlessness and mistrust are high.
• Intelligent infrastructure is not on the agenda in this scenario. This is a world
of opportunities not grasped and challenges ignored until too late.
• Some places fare better than others, but universally the focus is on making
the most of the resources available, particularly locally, and being patient.
• Technology is limited to that which is robust and able to cope with
fluctuations in energy supply, and legacy infrastructure is patched and
patched again.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• Scenario 4 – Good Intentions
• Good Intentions describes a world in which the need to reduce carbon
emissions constrains personal mobility. A tough national surveillance system
ensures that people travel only if they have sufficient carbon ‘points’.
Intelligent cars monitor and report on the environmental cost of journeys.
In-car systems adjust speed to minimise emissions. Traffic volumes have
fallen and mass transportation is used more widely.
• Businesses have adopted energy-efficient practices.
• There are concerns that the world has not yet done enough to respond to
the human activity which has caused the environmental damage.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenarios
• Airlines continue to exploit loopholes in the carbon enforcement framework.
The market has failed to provide a realistic alternative energy source.
• Technology systems become essential to deliver efficiency and allow use of
individual CO2 allowances.
• In the end, the world becomes dominated by carbon budgets in the absence
of cheap low-emission energy. Slowly, the importance of designing the
urban environment for less travel and efficient use of resources achieve
sufficient importance.
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
Comparison of scenarios against key measures
Source: BIS, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures – The Scenarios towards 2055 (2006): http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/intelligent-infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf
The World in 2050
• Research undertaken by PwC suggests that the world economy is projected
to grow at an average rate of just over 3% per annum from 2011 to 2050,
doubling in size by 2032 and nearly doubling again by 2050.
• China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in
purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rate
terms.
• India is expected to become the third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050, a
long way ahead of Brazil, which we expect to move up to 4th place ahead of
Japan.
• Outside the G20, Vietnam, Malaysia and Nigeria all have strong long-term
growth potential.
Source: PwC (2013), World in 2050, The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities: http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
The World in 2050
• China’s growth rate is expected to meet the government’s new 7% target for
the current decade, but will cool down progressively during the period 2021
– 2050 as its economy matures.
• A rapidly aging population and rising real labour costs are expected to see
China transition from being an export-orientated economy to more of a
consumption driven economy.
• Chinese exporters will find themselves competing more on the basis of
quality rather than price in their key US and EU export markets.
Source: PwC (2013), World in 2050, The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities: http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
Relative GDP at MERs and PPPs in 2050 (as % of US level)
Source: PwC (2013), World in 2050, The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities: http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
Projected GDP growth paths of China and the US
Source: PwC (2013), World in 2050, The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities: http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
Source: PwC (2013), World in 2050, The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities: http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
Car Sharing Business Model
• Roland Berger (2011) suggests that new business models will not be only
about selling cars but also about integrating software and hardware, or
different hardware modules.
• One example is mobility services, such as car sharing. Car sharing is a
business that will have to be taken seriously by 2025
• Given that one shared vehicle can replace up to 38 cars, OEMs will have to
try to integrate this new business into their model and generate other
alternative sources of revenue before somebody else does.
• C2E and C2C communication could represent future revenue pools as well.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Car Sharing Business Model
• The rising proportion of corporate vehicle owners such as companies with
car fleets, car hire firms, municipalities and car sharing companies will make
it harder to achieve premium prices. Margins will be eroded and there will
be more direct sales.
• This will weaken the car retailers' position. At the same time, retailers are
crucial for customer contact and will become increasingly vital as customers'
needs become more individualized.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
Electric Vehicle Business Model
• Electric vehicles will also require new business models.
• The economics of electric vehicles open up new ways for consumers to
think about and pay for mobility.
• They could, for example, purchase, finance or lease a vehicle without the
battery and then have the battery supplied by somebody else. Or they could
buy, finance or lease the battery together with the vehicle.
• Drivers could pay a monthly flat rate that covers use of the car including the
battery, charging of the battery and maintenance. Or they could pay a
higher monthly fee and in addition receive value-added services such as
navigation on demand, parking access, music downloads, and so on.
Source: Roland Berger (2011), Automotive Landscape to 2025: http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Automotive_Landscape_2025_20110228.pdf
The Connected Car – Changing
Business Models
• By 2022, the connected car market will comprise an estimated 700 million
connected cars plus 1.1 billion aftermarket connected devices providing
services such as navigation, usage-based insurance, stolen vehicle
recovery and infotainment.
• Telefónica Digital has published a report that identifies the opportunities and
challenges in stimulating collaboration between the automotive and mobile
industries which will together build this new market.
• The report suggests that the industries need to harmonise their work
practices and business models.
Source: Latelier, 2/7/2013: http://www.atelier.net/en/trends/articles/mobile-and-automotive-industries-new-business-models-needed-promote-collaboration_422528
The Connected Car – Changing
Business Models
• Overcoming the disconnect between mobile and automotive industry
lifecycles – The report suggests that mobile operators and automotive
manufacturers must now start to draw up their business models in
collaboration with each other because their approaches and aims vary
considerably today.
• For instance, while Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers typically
look for local connectivity solutions, BMW and Nissan take a global
approach to the market and so need to be able to secure suitable
agreements to provide global, or at least regional, coverage.
Source: Latelier, 2/7/2013: http://www.atelier.net/en/trends/articles/mobile-and-automotive-industries-new-business-models-needed-promote-collaboration_422528
The Connected Car – Changing
Business Models
• Another challenge for the connected car market is the difference in life-cycle
between the mobile and automotive industries. New features, such as
operating system upgrades and new applications, are provided almost
constantly for the smartphone, whereas automobile manufacturers work on
five-year cycles.
• The advent of new business models – The connected car is about to
cause an upheaval in the traditional dealership model. It offers a unique
opportunity for manufacturers to engage directly with their customers.
Branded app stores, upgrades to software solutions over-the-air, and
sharing of vehicle data all provide automotive OEMs with opportunities to
maintain brand awareness among customers.
Source: Latelier, 2/7/2013: http://www.atelier.net/en/trends/articles/mobile-and-automotive-industries-new-business-models-needed-promote-collaboration_422528
The Connected Car – Changing
Business Models
• The question of who pays for connected car services is an issue that is not
yet resolved.
• Consumers are used to making a one-off payment when purchasing a
vehicle, but embedded connection entails an additional bill to be paid for
actual connectivity.
• This means that new business models need to be created.
• One suggestion from General Motors is that operators could for example
recognise vehicles as a second device on a customer’s data plan for a low
monthly fee.
Source: Latelier, 2/7/2013: http://www.atelier.net/en/trends/articles/mobile-and-automotive-industries-new-business-models-needed-promote-collaboration_422528
The Connected Car – Changing
Business Models
• New technologies give rise to new business models that streamline that
sales process and engage with customers.
• CSC (2012),citing McKinsey’s 2012 Automotive Report suggests that ‘’Most
companies have conducted major programs to boost productivity and
improve operations, but haven't put sales under the same microscope. Yet
there's a much bigger gap between best and worst companies when it
comes to selling than to areas like supply chain management, finance or
purchasing.’’
Source: CSC (2012), The Connected Car –Changing Business Models for Automotive: http://www.w3.org/2012/08/web-and-automotive/slides/webandauto-day2-CSC.pdf
The Connected Car – Changing
Business Models
• Challenges:
• Current supply chain
• Lifecycle of automobiles
• Opportunities:
• Streamline sales processes
• Provide stock visibility
• Integrate with social media
Source: CSC (2012), The Connected Car –Changing Business Models for Automotive: http://www.w3.org/2012/08/web-and-automotive/slides/webandauto-day2-CSC.pdf
Driverless Public Transport –
Milton Keynes
• The Independent (2013) reports that Milton Keynes has announced plans to
deploy a driverless public transport system – 100 pods alongside an
accompanying smartphone app that can be used to book and pay for
journeys.
• Each pod will have enough space for two passengers and luggage and will
travel up to speeds of 12mph.
• The pods are powered by electronic motors and will initially be given their
own lanes, though there are plans to remove these once residents have
become accustomed to the technology.
Source: The Independent, 06/11/2013: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/milton-keynes-introducing-driverless-public-transport-pods-by-2017-8925119.html
Driverless Public Transport –
Milton Keynes
• The pods will be used to ferry passengers between the train station and
shopping centres and offices a mile away, a journey will cost £2.
• It is expected that the project will generate £1m of revenue in the first year,
and will cost £65 million in total.
• Twenty trial pods will be introduced in 2015 with steering wheels or joysticks
to control them. The full, driverless system will hit the streets later in 2017.
• John Bint, Milton Keynes Council’s cabinet member for transport and
highways believes that the system will ease parking problems and pollution
in the city, but notes that as the pod is neither a nor a taxi the council needs
to “work out how it’s going to be permitted.’’
Source: The Independent, 06/11/2013: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/milton-keynes-introducing-driverless-public-transport-pods-by-2017-8925119.html
Armadillo-T
• Researchers from the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
have developed a prototype for an EV folding car.
• The Armadillo-T starts off small, about the size of a smart car, and gets
smaller, reducing its overall length to just 65 inches after parking.
• A smartphone activation system is supposed to prevent the car from folding
if the driver is inside.
• The car’s aesthetics are a disadvantage at the moment.
Source: Autoweek, 22/08/2013: http://www.autoweek.com/article/20130822/carnews/130829958
Concept Ideas for EVs
• Next Geencar reports that car manufacturers are investing significant time
and money into research and development of plug-in vehicles.
• Due to the increasing pressures on road space and fuel economy, a
segment that will certainly offer several electric options will be small
quadricycle urban mobility vehicles.
• Many manufacturers have designed concept ideas for single or two-seater
urban vehicles – some of which will reach the market and some of which will
remain as just ideas.
Source: Next greencar, 3/9/2012: http://www.nextgreencar.com/news/5566/Top-10-electric-concept-cars
Nissan Pivo 2
• Nissan has developed a bubble-shaped, three-seater all-electric car called
the Pivo, which is short for pivot.
• It was introduced in 2005 at the Tokyo Motor Show. The third version was
unveiled in 2011, and uses a lithium-ion battery with a greater range.
• The most striking design feature is that the cabin sits on a wheeled platform
and can swivel through 360 degrees, making manoeuvring and parking less
of an effort.
Source: Next greencar, 3/9/2012: http://www.nextgreencar.com/news/5566/Top-10-electric-concept-cars
Audi Urban Spyder Concept
• Audi have taken their Urban Spyder concept a step. Production was
expected to begin in 2013 with the aim to offer the go-kart style electric
quadricycle to selected markets for around £8,000.
• The 7.1 kWh lithium-ion batteries will power twin electric motors at the rear
wheels to return a range of around 30 miles, top speed of 60 mph and
acceleration to 40 mph in 6 seconds.
• To reduce weight, the shell is made from carbon fibre reinforced plastics
and aluminium.
Source: Next greencar, 3/9/2012: http://www.nextgreencar.com/news/5566/Top-10-electric-concept-cars
Kia POP
• Kia POP is a three seater electric concept city car that was first presented at
the 2010 Paris Motor Show.
• Its design was inspired by pictures of space shuttles, and its glass roof
gives it a futuristic appearance.
• Only 3000mm long, it is intended to be easy to park and drive around town.
It uses a 50 kW electric motor with 190 Nm torque, powered by lithium
polymer gel batteries – returning a full driving range of around 99 miles.
• Although Kia expect to take the POP to production, as of 2012 timing was
not confirmed.
Source: Next greencar, 3/9/2012: http://www.nextgreencar.com/news/5566/Top-10-electric-concept-cars
Driverless Public Transport –
Milton Keynes • The pods have been designed by Ultra Global, a company that installed a
system of driverless pods in Heathrow’s Terminal 5.
• The pods in Milton Keynes will have no guideway, and will instead use a
combination of GPS, high definition cameras and ultrasonic sensors to
navigate and avoid pedestrians, similar to the technology used in self-
driving cars.
• They will also include large touchscreens that allow passengers to browse
the internet or check their emails.
Source: The Independent, 06/11/2013: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/milton-keynes-introducing-driverless-public-transport-pods-by-2017-8925119.html
Large-scale Trial of Driverless
Cars in Gothenburg
• The Telegraph (2013) reports that Volvo plans to introduce 100 driverless
cars on public roads as part of the world’s first large-scale autonomous
driving pilot.
• The cars will drive in normal, everyday road conditions, surrounded by
pedestrians and other traffic, and will even be able to self-park.
• Volvo is working alongside the Swedish Transport Administration, The
Swedish Transport Agency, Lindholmen Science Park and the City of
Gotehenburg, with the goal of placing both it and Sweden as leaders in the
development of future mobility.
Source: The Telegraph, 02/12/2013: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/10484839/Large-scale-trial-of-driverless-cars-to-begin-on-public-roads.html
Large-scale Trial of Driverless
Cars in Gothenburg • The pilot scheme is called “Drive Me - Self-driving cars for sustainable
mobility” and will underway in 2014 with customer research and further
development of current technology.
• The cars themselves won’t appear until 2017, when they will drive on about
30 miles of public road in and around Gothenburg.
• Håkan Samuelsson, President and CEO of the Volvo Car Group says that
Autonomous vehicles are an integrated part of Volvo Cars’ as well as the
Swedish government’s vision of zero traffic fatalities. This public pilot
represents an important step towards this goal’’.
• The pilot will also establish infrastructure requirements for autonomous
driving.
Source: The Telegraph, 02/12/2013: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/10484839/Large-scale-trial-of-driverless-cars-to-begin-on-public-roads.html
Hyperloop - The Future of Travel
• Hyperloop is a conceptual system that could transport passengers in pods
at near-supersonic speed – the vision of billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk.
• This transport concept could provide a viable alternative to short-haul travel,
high-speed rail and travelling by car.
• Hyperloop could reduce the journey time between Los Angeles and San
Francisco to just 30 minutes, compared to 75 minutes by plane and 5.5
hours by car.
• The concept is based on pods travelling through a low-pressure tube that
would be suspended above the ground.
Source: Future Travel Experience, 15/08/2013: http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2013/08/hyperloop-the-future-of-travel-or-pure-science-fiction/
Hyperloop - The Future of Travel
• Pods would have a compressor on the front to pass the air to the rear and
some of the air would be used to create a cushion underneath the pod on
which it could ride. Electric induction motors at the beginning, middle and
end points of the tube would be used to accelerate and decelerate the pods.
• Musk believes the whole system could run on solar power, ticket prices
should be as low as $20.
• The Hyperloop could reduce travel times greatly and provide excellent
passenger experience. However, one of the biggest challenges is that much
of the technology that is needed for Hyperloop to become a reality doesn’t
yet exist.
Source: Future Travel Experience, 15/08/2013: http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2013/08/hyperloop-the-future-of-travel-or-pure-science-fiction/
Hyperloop - The Future of Travel
• Development costs for the project are estimated at $6Bn - ten-times less than
the cost of the high-speed rail link between San Francisco and LA. Much more
than that would be needed for developing and testing new technologies.
• Also, the preliminary concept envisages a system of tubes and capsules that
would travel directly above the California highway between LA and San
Francisco.
• It is not clear how long will it take to convince the government and the public
that a building a futuristic transport system directly above a highway is a
sensible and safe idea.
Source: Future Travel Experience, 15/08/2013: http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2013/08/hyperloop-the-future-of-travel-or-pure-science-fiction/
Land Airbus - China
• Inhabitat (2013) reports that TBS China has unveiled the Land Airbus – a
giant car-swallowing bus that could potentially hit the streets of China.
• The vehicle is longer than previous versions, it can bend around corners,
and it travels along rails to enable smaller vehicles to pass underneath.
• The innovative urban transportation solution has a high-tech interior that is
entered via a glass elevator that drops down at air lift stations. While
passengers are getting on and off the vehicle, there is no hold up in traffic –
cars just keep going under the Land Airbus.
• TBS China claims that, compared to Metro, the new public transportation
vehicle would cost less, have a shorter construction period and almost
match passenger capacity.
Source: Inhabitat, 09/15/13: http://inhabitat.com/land-airbus-straddling-bus-as-the-future-of-public-transportation-in-the-city/
String Theory
• Gizmag (2012) reveals several other concepts for the future of mass travel.
• String theory- this is a high-speed rail concept that aims to present an
alternative to conventional systems without the astronomical price tag.
• The concept is based on the use of what look like heavy-duty above ground
electrical wires, but instead of carrying power, these high-tension wires
become the support for carriages.
• The proponents of the system see big advantages in terms of cost
(somewhere between three and 10 times less expensive than a railway,
maglev system, monorail system or motorway) and efficiency (an 80 kW
(107hp) motor would take a 20-person passenger vehicle up to 155 mph
(250 km/h)).
Source: Gizmag, 18/06/2012: http://www.gizmag.com/future-transport/22959/
Tubular Rails
• Tubular Rails – This is a system where the trains themselves carry the
tracks, while the wheels and motors are contained in elevated rings that the
train passes through at speeds of up to 240 km/h (150 mph).
• Because the design would cause minimal disruption to existing
infrastructure and the technology is readily available, Tubular Rail estimates
that construction costs could be 60 percent less than conventional urban
train networks.
Source: Gizmag, 18/06/2012: http://www.gizmag.com/future-transport/22959/
Human-powered Mass Transport
• Shweeb is a human-powered monorail system that uses bicycle pods
suspended from tracks to create a very efficient option for getting from A to
B.
• Currently people can ride the Shweeb at the Agroventures in New Zealand,
reaching speeds of up to 45 km/h (28 mph).
• The idea is not limited to adventure parks though. Shweeb picked up a
US$1 million investment from Google in 2010 as part of Project 10^100 and
will soon be announcing the planned location of the first Shweeb built for
public use.
Source: Gizmag, 18/06/2012: http://www.gizmag.com/future-transport/22959/
Follow the Leader
• Follow the Leader is trying to solve the chaos of personal transport where
the decisions are made by individual drivers.
• To do this, the system will use a lead vehicle that's wirelessly linked to a
series of other cars which follow its path autonomously.
• The system retains the flexibility of purely private transport – vehicles can
leave the train, so that they don't all end up at the same destination.
• The only additional infrastructure required is the computers that link the
vehicles and the benefits for road safety.
• Decreasing congestion and reducing vehicle fuel consumption are obvious.
Source: Gizmag, 18/06/2012: http://www.gizmag.com/future-transport/22959/