FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on
policy and decision makingpolicy and decision making28th- 29th September 200628th- 29th September 2006
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on
policy and decision makingpolicy and decision making28th- 29th September 200628th- 29th September 2006
Contribution of the FORLEARN project to thestudy of Foresight Impact on Policy-Making
Olivier DA COSTA, Philine WARNKEFabiana SCAPOLO, Cristiano CAGNIN
European Commission / Joint Research Centre / Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
OutlineOutline FORLEARN project
Challenges of policy- / decision-making
Interface between Foresight and policy-making
Contribution of Foresight to policy-making
1. Policy informing
2. Policy facilitating through enabling change
3. Strategic counselling
4. Democratic function
Different contributions at different steps of policy making
Five major issues for high impact
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
FOR-LEARN ProjectFOR-LEARN Project
Part of the “Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform” initiated by DG Research
Objectives:
1. Consolidating and improving access to existing Foresight knowledge and know-how
2. Providing support to practitioners undertaking Foresight exercise (territorial or sectoral)
3. Promoting mutual learning between practitioners and users
4. Improving interconnexion of European projects and actors
5. Addressing current research issues
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
FOR-LEARN Learning CycleFOR-LEARN Learning Cycle
ForesightForesight Learning CycleLearning Cycle
WP1Online Foresight
guide
WP1Online Foresight
guide
WP2Online Query
WP2Online Query
WP3Mutual Learning
Workshop
WP3Mutual Learning
Workshop
Expertise for the support to practitioners
Knowledge gaps
Feedback to update the guide
ForesightForesight Learning CycleLearning Cycle
WP1Online Foresight
guide
WP1Online Foresight
guide
WP2Online Query
WP2Online Query
WP3Mutual Learning
Workshop
WP3Mutual Learning
Workshop
Expertise for the support to practitioners
Knowledge gaps
Feedback to update the guide
Information about Foresight such as “what it is” “what it can do for you and what not”.Practical guidance on how to design and carry out the different phases of a Foresight exerciseDetailed description and implementation advises for a number of Foresight methodsCase studies presenting past and current exercises (territorial or sectoral) emphasising practical information and lessons learnedLinks to more academic discussions and references to go deeper into the current research issueshttp://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/0_home/index.htm
To promote• Transfer and consolidation of knowledge• Codification of practises• Research on knowledge gaps
Different types• Bilateral (in support of a specific exercise, ex Romanian)• Multilateral (addressing a knowledge gap with 10-15 experts)• Consolidation (presenting results to a larger audience)
Individual and targeted support to practitioners, especially beginners• Direct answer• Reference to other sources or contactsPossibly set-up of a “Mutual Learning Workshop” to address the issue more in depth
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Challenges of policy- / decision-makingChallenges of policy- / decision-making
Under severe time pressure
Information overload
• not always reliable
• not always relevant
Speed of change & uncertainty,
Increasing complexity of issues
• Multi-dimensional: S&T, economic, cultural & social, political, environmental
• Inter-connection, inter-dependency, multi-causal
• Good old fashioned “control system” not applicable
• “You can never change one thing”
Difficulty to switch modes “dealing with urgency” “long-term thinking”
Challenge to transmit complexity
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Bottleneck in the communicationBottleneck in the communication
Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry
Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry
(over)simplification and formatting for the messages to go through: ‘indicators’, ranking...
Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis
Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basisBlack boxBlack boxBlack boxBlack box
Pandora boxPandora boxPandora boxPandora box
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Three approachesThree approaches
“Increase the bandwidth”
Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry
Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry
“Optimise the signal” Transmit more relevant,
useable and operational material
“Improve reception” Improve credibility by giving
good advises Make thing interesting
rather than boring
“Increase the bandwidth” Create mechanisms of
consultations at different steps of policy-making
Couple qualitative with quantitative
Use “parallel channels of attention”: pictures, movies…
Use of the media
Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis
Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis
“Optimise the signal”
“Improve reception”
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Why revisiting impact on policy-making?Why revisiting impact on policy-making?
From interviews and literature review:
Increasing emphasis on impact assessment and on “value for money”
Debate on new policy-support instruments
Long-standing experience in Foresight allows for review of lessons learned
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Two main functions of Foresight for policy Two main functions of Foresight for policy makingmaking
ActorActor
PolicyPolicy
ActorActor
Informing policyInforming policy
Actor
Actor
Facilitating PolicyFacilitating Policy
Foresight processForesight process
Foresight productForesight product
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Anticipatory intelligence• Dynamics of change (scenarios, roadmaps)
• Future opportunities & threats
• Strengths & weaknesses of the current system for addressing future challenges (e.g. skills & competencies available)
• Visions for change
• Recommendations for action
Based on a diversity of knowledge sources
Stakeholders views
Viewpoints and expectations in reference to a policy field
New ideas from new channels
1: Policy informing function1: Policy informing function
PolicyPolicyInforming policyInforming policy
Foresight productForesight product
PolicyI nforming policyInforming policy
Foresight productForesight product
PolicyI nforming policyInforming policy
Foresight productForesight product
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
2: Policy facilitating function2: Policy facilitating function
ActorActor
PolicyPolicy
ActorActor
ActorActor Foresight processForesight process
Facilitating Policy through enabling change
Facilitating Policy through enabling change
Within the targeted arena of change:
Common ground
• Linkages & interfaces
• Combinations between elements (e.g. institutions, companies, people, knowledge, beliefs, technologies, products)
• Joint visions
• Learning platforms
Soft coordination
• Awareness of policy objectives, strategy and constraints
• Willingness to contribute to policy implementation because of agreement with the goal to reach and even feeling of ownership
Distributed intelligence
• Shared information as an input to decision-making for various actors and stakeholders beyond policy-makers
Policy benefit: Enhanced the receptivity of the systems and thereby its capability to react to future challenges and evolve in phase with policy-making
Remark: In innovation policy, fostering the ability to change and the connectivity are objectives in themselves in order to enhance the innovation capability
Actor
Policy
Actor
Actor Foresight processForesight process
Facilitating Policy through enabling change
Facilitating Policy through enabling change
Actor
Policy
Actor
Actor Foresight processForesight process
Facilitating Policy through enabling change
Facilitating Policy through enabling change
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Two main functionsTwo main functionsPolicy
Foresight productForesight product
Informing policyInforming policy
Facilitating PolicyFacilitating Policy
Highlighting:• Dynamics of change• Future risks & opportunities• Capabilities of the system• New ideas & visions• Stakeholders views
Enabling change by building amongst stakeholders:
• Common ground• Soft coordination• Distributed intelligence
Foresight processForesight process
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
3: Strategic counselling function3: Strategic counselling function
Specific function for some policy-oriented exercises
Concept: Joint translation of outcomes from a collective exercise into strategic options for a specific policy actor (e.g. ministry)
Outcome: Future-oriented strategies in specific policy fields (e.g. adaptive, robust) adapted to the needs of a specific policy actor
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
3: Strategic counselling function3: Strategic counselling function
PolicyPolicy
Product: Informing
Collective Foresight
Process: Facilitating
Strategy PhaseAdapted strategic options
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
4: Democratic function4: Democratic function
Improve the transparency and legitimacy
Especially for policy with long-term impact or large budget spending
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Foresight in policy-makingForesight in policy-making
Evaluation
Agenda-setting
FORESIGHT
Strategy building
• Ex-ante impact analysis
Learning
Implementation
Understanding of changes
Receptivity of the system
New ideas
Legitimacy, transparency
VisionsStrategic options
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Five crucial issues identified by practitionersFive crucial issues identified by practitioners
[2nd FORLEARN Mutual Learning Workshop Brussels April 2006]
1. Embedding Foresight in policy process
2. Adequate involvement of policy makers
3. Joining policy implementation
4. Building a reservoir of knowledge
5. Linking to choices and values
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
1 Embedding Foresight in policy process1 Embedding Foresight in policy process
Issue
• Foresight outcomes are only taken onboard if they are well in phase with policy-making process, in terms of
Timing
Cultural compatibility
Useability
Approach
• Careful analysis of policy-context (positions of other actors etc.) to define space of manoeuvre for the policy actor
• Positioning in reference to other ongoing policy processes
Don’t stand alone but competitive
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
2 Adequate involvement of policy makers2 Adequate involvement of policy makers
Issue
• Finding the right balance of policy makers involvement
On the one hand policy-makers require external and neutral advice
On the other they may not, without early involvement, embrace the outcomes (Not Invented Here)
Presence of policy makers encourages lobbying rather than creative thinking
Approach
• Finding specific roles for policy makers in the process
• Windows of policy interaction & windows of seclusion
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
3 3 Joining policy implementationJoining policy implementationIssue
• Anticipatory intelligence is not easily translated into strategies
• Even more so if it stems from a collective process
Difficulty for policy makers to communicate their agenda within open process
Lack of understanding about real needs of policy makers
Stakeholders not in a position to develop policy strategies
Approach
• Jointly translating anticipatory intelligence from collective process into strategic options
If in line with the specific objectives of this exercise
And:
Keeping protected spaces for creativity
Not diverting collective process with the constraints of implementation
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
4 Building a reservoir of knowledge4 Building a reservoir of knowledgeIssue
• Precise answers to precise questions are usually not possible on the spot, neither always desirable
Changing policy agenda, difficult to be in phase
Different time scales: Foresight slower than policy-making
Not always possible to go through the “strategic counselling” phase
Limit the aversion against “prescriptions” that some policy makers have
Approach
• Anticipate timing of decision-making
• Conceptualise outcomes as a reservoir of possible policy alternatives (rather than “prioritisation” or “recommendations”) that can be adopted by different actors at different times
Even in case of a major change, e.g. elections
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
5 5 Linking to choices and valuesLinking to choices and valuesIssue
• Policies should be linked to normative objectives such as sustainability, quality of life etc.
• Stakeholders need to be convinced that the policy results of a choice, not a lack of choice
E.g. French referendum on European constitution
Approach
• Linking explicitly the exploration of the future with debates about choices and values
• Not only possible futures but also desirable futures
FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention