Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Futures.

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Futures for UniversitiesAttila Havas

Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

Futures for UniversitiesFutures for Universities

Outline

1) Introduction

2) The role of universities in the knowledge production and research system

3) Recent key trends

4) Driving forces for change and future trends

5) Visions (future states) for universities5.1) Visions for the EU and ERIA5.2) Visions for universities

6) Policy conclusions

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

1) Introduction

No thorough, exhaustive academic treatment of the current situation of universities...

... a prospective analysis (not foresight)

Diversity of universities cannot be covered teaching, research, and other activities research agenda: reg’l, nat’l, EU or global issues teaching: for what labour markets governance structures, organisation, mgmt practices performance (economic efficiency, teaching and research

excellence – whatever metrics are used) EU vs. Triad intra-EU (across member states) intra-country

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

1) Introduction

A strategy process should be participatory

Vision-building: bring together stakeholders with diverse background accumulated knowledge and experience distinct viewpoints and approaches

to enrich the discussion and analysis

Shared ‘visions’ consensus joint actions & reduced uncertainty

Ambition: spark lively dialogues with the ‘Futures’ developed in this paper

Universities in broader socio-economic systems

“Top-down” approach: EU, ERIA, NIS, universities

Time horizon: 2020 (not carved in stone!)

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

2) The role of universities...

The importance of other players in the RTDI systemsfirms, public labs, users, patient groups, other NGOs

The changing roles of universitieselite vs. mass educationteaching & research vs. teaching only (mainly) and

‘research’ universities [more at the staff level: ‘teaching only’ vs. ‘research only’ positions]

The Humboldtian model is becoming an exception(at the post-graduate level)

The ‘third’ role of universities (is it new at all?)

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

2) The role of universities...

A new rationale for funding ‘basic’ science by public money?

a) the very notion of ‘basic’ science is questionable

b) higher education and ‘basic’ science are not that closely interconnected nowadays as they used to be

given the changing nature of higher education, and the crucial role played by other research actors

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

3) Recent key trends...

Changing roles/ responsibilities of universities: new roles emerge, and the balance of various roles is changing

teaching; academic research; consultancy for, and problem-solving for firms and other players (NGOs, policy-makers); other joint RTDI projects with businesses

An increasing share of the age group of 18-29 years old is registered for university courses

financial, infrastructural requirements; number and/or workload of teachers; quality of education/ degrees (“prestige”); job-seekers’ aspirations, ambitions

The Bologna Process

Futures for UniversitiesFutures for Universities

4) Driving forces for change and future trends

Quest for excellence in researchimproving academic recognition and raising funds

Technological changesmore sophisticated more expensive equipment

Demographic changes

Tensions in government budgets

Quest for cost-efficiency of research

New societal demands, changing values

New methods, approaches, norms to organise, manage, validate, legitimate and evaluate HE/R

Ten trends are derived from these driving forces

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

5) Visions for universities

Visions vs. “fully-fledged” or “path scenarios”

No consideration of the degree of probability of specific visions

Underlying assumptionsA) Policies can modify the existing driving forces for

change, and can trigger changes themselves

B) Universities cannot operate fully isolated from their socio-economic environment ( EU polices: Lisbon Process, ERIA)

C) Interrelations between competitiveness and cohesion:(i) as a ‘zero-sum game’(ii) as mutually reinforcing processesthe latter view is taken here

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

5) Visions for universities

Underlying assumptions (cont’d)

D) Cohesion is an issue for (a) large, advance member states, (b) for the ‘classic’ cohesion countries, and (c) for the 10 new member states. Thus, it is a major political and policy issue.The forthcoming enlargement(s) would add more countries and regions to this ‘list’.

E) Promoting RTDI efforts in cohesion regions via joint research projects (funded e.g. by RTD FP) does not mean that scientific excellence is compromised. (Sharp [1998])

F) A pronounced policy emphasis on cohesion does – and should – not preclude competition among universities

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

5.1.1) Visions for the EU

Internalstrategy

EU vs.Triad

Cohesion (societal issues)

Competitiveness (‘multi-speed

EU’)

Successful EU A) Double success

B) Successful multi-speed EU

Laggard EU

C1) Shaky cohesion

C2) Double failure

D) Failed multi-speed EU

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

5.1.2) Visions for the ERIA (two EU visions)

ERIA EU A) EU B)Rationale for EU RTDI policies

Co-ordination of policies

Location of major HE/R centres

Research agenda

Mobility of researchers, U staff and students

Integration of RTDI activities

Research infrastructure

Innovation systems, co-op among key players

RTDI services (inf, consultancy, incubation ...)

Financial infrastructure

Policy-preparation methods, practices

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

5.2) Visions for universities

Trends,driving forces

Un-changed U

Radically ref’d U

New players

The role/ mission of U

Mobility of U staff, students

Integration of RTDI activities

Courses/ degrees

The Bologna process

Competition for talents

Multi-disciplinary training

Multi-disciplinary research

Separate tables for A) Double success, andB) Successful multi-speed EU

Futures for Universities Futures for Universities

5.2) Visions for universities

“Generic” trends [regardless of EU A); B)]

Un-changed U

Radically ref’d U

New players

Demographic trends

Legitimisation, validation of knowledge

Methods, approaches, norms to organise and manage U

Ever more expensive physical infrastructure (edu, research)

The impacts of new technologies on HE

Futures for UniversitiesFutures for Universities

6) Policy conclusions*

1. Support Foresight (prospective) activities of universities (methods, funds, dialogues, etc.)

2. Abolish national borders for researchers and for students

3. Strengthen the autonomy of universities

4. Promote further research regarding the functional division of labour amongst different research actors

* No 2-4) are produced collectively by the HLEG members