ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
ECMWF Status Report
Stephen English
ECMWF
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities
Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring
Research topics related to satellite observations
Overview:
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP)
Historical reanalysis for
climate research
Environmentalmonitoring and
modelling
Main areas of activity at ECMWF
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP)
HIRES + ENS Monthly Seasonal
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Environmentalmonitoring and
modelling
Estimating greenhouse gas concentration and
flux inversion
Monitoring and forecasting trajectory
of dust events
Monitoring and forecasting trajectory
of volcanic events
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Re-analysis for climate
research
Trend analysis of climate parameters
Improved climatology for process studies
Cleansed historical observation data sets
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Operational NWP
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
The forecast model
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Grid structure of the Global operational NWP forecast model: (time step = 10mins)
91 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)
T1279 spectral resolution(~16km grid point spacing)
0 10 20 30Pressure layer thickness [hPa]
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Pre
ssure
[hP
a]
L91L137
137 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
~210km ~125km ~63km ~39km ~25km ~16km
Evolution of ECMWF forecast skill
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
The Assimilation System
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
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xyxy
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bT
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R
B
Operational 4D-Var Algorithm
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Operational 4D-Var Algorithm
)()(
)()(
])H[(])H[(
)()()(
1
1
1
1
bT
b
bT
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VARBC term to correct observation bias
Weak constraint term to correct model bias
Flow dependent errors from EDA system
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Overview of data usage
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Ground based / launched observations
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Overview of data usageSYNOP/SHIP/METAR:Meteorological/aeronautical land surface weather stations (2m-temperature, dew-point temperature, 10m-wind)
BUOYS:Moored buoys (TAO, PIRATA)Drifters
TEMP/TEMPSHIP/DROPSONDES:RadiosondesASAPs (commercial ships replacing stationary weather ships)Dropsondes released from aircrafts (NOAA, Met Office, tropical cyclones, experimental field campaigns, e.g., FASTEX, NORPEX)
PROFILERS:UHF/VHF Doppler radars (Europe, US, Japan)
Aircraft:AIREPS (manual reports from pilots)AMDARs, ACARs, etc. (automated readings)
Now within VarBC!
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Satellite Observations
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Overview of data usage
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Overview of data usageLevel-1 radiances Level-2 products Level-1.5 products
AMSU-A, ATMS, MHS, MWTS, MWHS, HIRS,
IASI, AIRS, CrIS, SEVIRI, MTSAT,
GOES, SSMIS, TMI, SMOS, WindSat
GRAS, GRACE, CNOFS, COSMIC, TERRASAR-X, ASCAT, OSCAT
Level-2* products
SST / SNOW / ICE
CloudSat, Calipso
Research
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Radiances AMSU-A on NOAA-15/18/19, AQUA, Metop-A+B, ATMS on Suomi-NPP (from Sept 2012)AMSU-B/MHS on NOAA-19, Metop-A+BSSMIS on F-17, TMI on TRMM, Windsat on CoriolisHIRS on NOAA-17/19, Metop-AAIRS on AQUA, IASI on Metop-A, CrIS on Suomi-NPPMVIRI on Meteosat-7, SEVIRI on Meteosat-9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2 imagersSMOS imager
Bending angles COSMIC-1, GRAS on Metop, GRACE-A, Terrasar-X, CNOFS
Ozone SBUV on NOAA-17/18, OMI on Aura, AIRS, IASI, HIRS
Atmospheric Motion Vectors Meteosat-7/9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2, MODIS on Terra/Aqua. FY2
Sea surface parameters Near-surface wind speed from ASCAT on Metop-A, OSCAT on OceanSatSignificant wave height from Jason altimeters
Overview of data usage
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Out of threshold anomalies trigger alerts on web site and launch emails to key personnel prompting action
Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring
24
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
New instruments: FY3 and Suomi-NPPCrIS 14µm
ATMS Ch.9 MWHS Ch.4
MWTS Ch.3
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
R+D activities relevant to NAEDEX
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 27
1. Hyperspectral IR(McNally/Matricardi/Eresmaa)
• New sensors: CrIS• Principal component assimilation• Improved cloud screening• Use of SW and O3 channels
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 28
2. Microwave sounders(Bell/Lu/DiTomaso/Eresmaa/Bormann/English)
• Characterisation of bandpass drift in existing sensors• Improved microwave surface emissivity• New sensors: ATMS, FY3• Observation errors
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 29
3. Microwave Imagers(Bell/Geer/Baordo/English)
• All sky assimilation including AMSU-A channel 4
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
4. Satellite winds and Geo radiances (Hernandez/Bormann/Salonen/Lupu)
• AMV error model and understanding • AMV QC• All sky Geo Radiances• Observing model error growth with Geo radiances
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 31
EDA analysis spread for temperature at 100 hPa
Tropics
N. HemS. Hem
5. GPSRO(Healy/Harnisch)
• Tangent point drift• EDA experiments: sensitivity to number of observations• Surface pressure• Contributions to ROM SAF (ROPP)
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
mg/
kg
-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude
100
10
1
Pres
sure
, hPa
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
mg/
kg
-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude
100
10
1
Pres
sure
, hPa
Ops, 2010 - 2011Ops, 2010 - 2011 Ops, 2011 - 2012Ops, 2011 - 2012
+IR/O3
+MIPAS
No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012SBUVSBUV(21)(21), 2011 – 2012, 2011 – 2012
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
mg/
kg
-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude
100
10
1
Pres
sure
, hPa
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5m
g/kg
-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude
100
10
1
Pres
sure
, hPa
6. Ozone(Dragani)
+SBUV21
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
7. Radar and lidar(Janiskova/DiMichele/Martins)
• Preparing for EarthCARE using CloudSat and Calipso• Testing forward operator and adjoint assimilation code• Validating model clouds and physical parameterisations• Choices of observation error, QC and bias correction
ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh
Summary
•Data volumes / instruments continue to increase•Automated alert system now fully operational•Early CrIS and ATMS results are encouraging•Loss of ENVISAT was a major event, especially for ocean and ozone analysis•Principal component assimilation has been demonstrated for cloud-free scenes•FY3 characterisation led to very valuable re-analysis of errors in MSU and AMSU-A data record•EDA techniques used to try to estimate sensitivity of system to number of GPSRO observations